AFL R12

[happy punter]

I was expecting to see $8.00 to $9.50 not the $5.00 I saw. At 35 points it's almost always over with perhaps a rally by the team trailing to get close but never hit the front which is how it typically goes.

You do realise North Melbourne were $1.30 favs and laying 23.5 points pregame?

 

[ricardogp]

You do realise North Melbourne were $1.30 favs and laying 23.5 points pregame?

Yup. Richmond started as 23 point underdogs at $4 or so? And at HT the Kangas were effectively 35 point underdogs at $5. So seems about right. The only difference was they only had half the time to get there.

Sent using Tapatalk for Android

 

[Chism]

Can we keep this thread discussing the AFL Only????

 

[happy punter]

Pies -29.5 over Demons @ 1.93 (2 units)
Pies 40+ over Demons @ 2.55 (1 unit)

 

[TheKanga]

Melbourne (+29.5) – 2.5u @ 1.93
Melbourne 1-39 – 0.5u @ 5.00

 

[foxy_dal]

Very lucky to hit Martin unders to turn a disaster week into a possible break even week. Adding 2 plays for today:

2 units Swan over N.Jones DT @ $1.55
Really should have taken this earlier in the week before it got smashed in but assuming Macaffer goes to Jones I don't see him doing much better then 80. Joens is already having a huge year at an average of 102 when last year he averaged 78 and a previous high of 89. Obviously the Roos game plan is helping but i'm not sure i'm convinced he will average 100. In recent games he has been tagged by Picken (69) and Kerridge (63) and Macaffer has done plenty of jobs like that. The reason I didn't take this at first was because I was worried about Swans fitness but even despite a poor year he is averaging basically the same as Jones which is 17 points lower then his worst average (117) in the last 5 years). he has still scored over 100 in 5 of his last 6 games as well.

2 units Lumumba over Fasolo SC @ $1.85
This is based on Fasolo's SC scores dropping since he has moved back forward rather than the lucrative running off half back role he had for a few weeks where he averaged 103 from his first 3 games of the year. Not counting his injured game his 2 return games have given just 60 and 95 (he kicked 4 goals in this game too). Lumumba averaged 88 last year (85 so far this year) so he is performing around where I would expect.

 

[chrisdon16]

Collingwood/Dees

Under 169.5
Melbourne +29.5

 

[chrisdon16]

Chucking a bit on the Dees 1-24 @ $6, they'll give the pies a scare today

 

[Stretcher Boy]

Hey guys have a small multi going I no it's a bit late as I only have one leg left but here it is:

Sydney over 15.5
Frem in the sweet spot between -4.5 and adel +52.5
Sweet spot collingwood -5.5 and Melbourne +53.5

$4.44 have $57 on it

Happy to upload a pic of the ticket for proof
Do you think the last leg is good?

 

[BloodRet]

0.5U Beams 3+ goals @ 5.20
2U Fasolo 3+ goals @ 5.20
5U Also need Collingwood to win to finish off 5 leg multi @ 2.46

 

[Keystone agony]

Syd vs GC
2U Sydney -27.5 @2 (betstar)
1U Over 179.5 @1.91 (B365)
0.5U Over 196.5 @3.00 (TAB)
0.5U Bennell >1.5 Goals @2.30 (B365)
1U K.Jack <110.5 DT @1.87 (TAB)
1U Bird over Mcglynn SC @1.88 (IAS/Sportsbet)
1U Hanneberry over Jack DT @1.95 (IAS/Sportsbet) - DRAW
0.5U J.P.Kennedy over Ablett DT @2.35 (IAS/Sportsbet)

Adel vs Freo
2U Freo 1-39 @2.20 (Betstar)
1U Adel <67.5 @1.90 (B365)
1U Freo/Adel <164.5 @1.87 (TAB)
1U Barlow win DT group (IAS) vs Fyfe, Danger, Sandi, Douglas, ST, Sloane, Mundy
1U Barlow over 105.5 DT @1.87 (Lux)
2U Tex Walker <2.5 Goals @1.70 (Lux)
1U S.Thompson over Fyfe Disposals @2 (TAB)
1.5U Mundy over Sandi DT @1.75

+1.82 Units

Having one of those weeks where i seem to miss everything by 1-2 points.

Ward one disposal less and it was a big win, cotchin one more disposal and it was a good win, Bennell kicks 1.3 and all i need is 2 goals and he kicks 2-3 behind early in the first quarter. Barlow comes 2nd in his group. Hanneberry/Jack draw after Hanneberry had him early. The biggest one was Fremantle 1-39 when they win by 40 and kick a late point 15 seconds before the siren after it looked like a close game all the way.

 

[Keystone agony]

Multi: 2U Geel, Port, Hawks, Freo, Syd, Coll Wins @2.43 (25% Increase) (Bet365) - 4.075 Unit win

Do i hedge?

 

[BloodRet]

Do i hedge?

I had the same excluding Freo and got @2.46 with a bonus if win (sportsbet)

 

[Keystone agony]

I was hopeing Melbourne would drift to 33.5/34.5

The TMP line has certainly drifted. Think people are purely just getting on because the weather is crystal fine in Melbourne for the day. Im not sure that overs will be the case.

 

[leevone]

Collingwood 1-39 @ 2.15
Collingwood Under 169.5 @ $1.90

 

[Keystone agony]

1u Simpson over Gibbs SC $1.85
2u Montagna over Hayes SC $1.70
2u Dal Santo over Harvey SC $1.85
2u Vince over Dunn SC $1.70

Reasons and more bets to follow. Damn sportsbet releasing these while I have work!

Tailed all exactly.

Also added 2U Redden over Zorko SC @1.85
Also 1U Bird over Mcglynn @1.88 (Sportsbet) - Expecting Mcglynn to have his hands full tagging Ablett not sure if you score many SC points keeping a player out of the game. Bird has gone over 100 each of his alst 3 and is playing onball more and more

Id love to hear the reasoning as im a little concerned about them, however your last week record was impeccable - ill back you in

foxy_dal foxxy

 

[Keystone agony]

Might be a few more to come for this game

Melb vs Coll
1U Melb +29.5 @2 (Betstar)
1U Melb 1-39 @5.55 (Lux) - Hedge
0.5U <169.5 @1.90 TMP (Lux)
0.5U Coll <48.5 HT @1.88 (Sportsbet/IAS)
0.5U Coll/Melb HT <83.5 @1.87 (Betstar)
2U Vince over Dunn @1.70 (Sportsbet/IAS)
5U Swan over N.Jones @1.70 (Sportsbet/IAS)
2U Multi: Geel, Port, Hawks, Freo, Syd, Coll Wins @2.43 (25% Increase) (Bet365) - 4.075 Unit win
0.2U J.Thomas >2.5 Goals @19 (B365)

 

[Chism]

The Demons to win by 13-14pts is nearly 70-1 and just got a tiny $5 on it!!

 

[BROOMY]

Looking at Sportsbet First Goalscorer refund again today and really liking Dawes ($13) and Elliot ($10) but hard to decide which one will end up kicking 3+ goals.

 

[_bonza_]

Demons v Pies
Wire to Wire- Any other result $2.30 0.40 units
Melbourne line (+27.5) 0.40 units
Either team under 15.5 points $3.30 0.20 units
Pies 1-19 $4.30 0.20 units
Draw $67 0.20 units

Just a bit of fun to make it interesting
Also Jesse White is a late out for the Pies (replaced by Brodie Grundy) for anyone interested

 

[Aed0s]

I'm liking:

1U - Collingwood 1-39 @ 2.15

And Dane swan avg 41 disposals last 2 games vs Melb, 6 Brownlow votes.

Macaffer I think will go to Jones.

1U - DT swan > Jones @1.55

 

[sneak]

2u under83.5 @1.88 1st half

 

[boyOboy]

1U Elliot FGS
2U Beams > Pendlebury DT
1U Collingwood 1-24

God damn. I was in the positives this round. Now I'm -3U

 

[banana_bus]

Swan pips Jones by 1, some relieved punters in here...

 

[Keystone agony]

Woww