The Royal Sampler
Floreat Pica, Bitch!
The weather would have to be considered too. Both teams scored more behinds than goals at the Gabba last week, albeit that neither of the Lions or Roos was playing GC at the time...
-
AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
AFL Round 10
- Thread starter GoCROWS!
- Start date
- Tagged users None
ManWithNoName
TheBrownDog
Adelaide v Brisbane? I should be able to bet on football being the loser.
The weather would have to be considered too. Both teams scored more behinds than goals at the Gabba last week, albeit that neither of the Lions or Roos was playing GC at the time...
I'm on it for 4u @1.71, which is huge for me. the only remote worry is geelong having one of their days where they couldn't score in a brothel, see geelong vs collingwood.
the major difference is the opposition obviously, I see open goals a plenty, hence why I've gone big. See carlton and essendon against the GC for the best form guide for this match.
Expect downhill skier extraodanaire stokes to have a field day. Will look for him in DT markets.
If this games goes against my expectation then I could be in some trouble.
4u cats-64.5 @ 1.92
4u cats more goals than behinds @ 1.71
1u geelong win by 100+ @ 5.2
- Banned
- #154
I think this is one of those rounds where all the favourites will win, alot of 8 out of 8's in the tipping. agree?
Kynge of Begrem
Norm Smith Medallist
looks like it to me - I still can't believe the swans are out at ~$1.70
Amazing value isnt it!
i am on this one, the PYOL of -99.5 is @ 5.60
Rooster Cogburn
Premiership Player
- Dec 16, 2010
- 3,193
- 837
- AFL Club
- Sydney
- Other Teams
- Arsenal
Hmmm, a multi with 2 line bets puts this over $20.
Carlton ATS / West Coast ATS / Geelong -99.5 @ 20.64 for 0.5 unit please
X_box_X
The Opportunist
Veteran
10k Posts
Western Bulldogs - Ed Richards Player Sponsor 2018
Western Bulldogs - Bailey Dale Player Sponsor 2018
Western Bulldogs - Mitch Honeychurch Player Sponsor 2018
Western Bulldogs - Nathan Mullenger-McHugh Player Sponsor 2018
Western Bulldogs - Nathan Mullenger-McHugh Player Sponsor 2017
Western Bulldogs - Bailey Dale Player Sponsor 2017
Only thing worrying me about Geelong's -99.5 is what if it rains?
What has the weather been like lately in QLD? Noticed it was warm and sunny today, according to last night's weather forecast. Anyone able to shed some light?
What has the weather been like lately in QLD? Noticed it was warm and sunny today, according to last night's weather forecast. Anyone able to shed some light?
Not sure how Carrara drains but Gold Coast's racetrack is a heavy 9 for tomorrow, put it that way.
Saturday Mostly fine, possible shower.
two weeks everyone was saying how good Geelong are in the wet.
unfortunately saw this after I had put the money down
id say the weather will make little difference to the line bets, if anything the wet will make the difference in skills more pronounced and produce more gold coast errors in their back half. this is providing its just light showers, no downpours.
unfortunately saw this after I had put the money down
id say the weather will make little difference to the line bets, if anything the wet will make the difference in skills more pronounced and produce more gold coast errors in their back half. this is providing its just light showers, no downpours.
I think it makes a huge difference. Has anyone kicked 25 goals in the wet? It makes things far more difficult, near on impossible in conditions like the Lions had last week. Things could clear up but a heavy track at the gold coast is not good news IMO! Will wait until friday, it might be $4.50 by then but id rather that than knowing the money is gone before the game starts if they play on a bog.
http://www.contestedfooty.com/2009/04/geelong-vs-brisbane-round-5-match-recap/
this game went close to 100 point margin in woefull conditions. althought that was at geelongs home ground, but brisbane were better than the GC are.
Still I'd rather it didn't rain than it did, which I guess shows that I agree with you.
this game went close to 100 point margin in woefull conditions. althought that was at geelongs home ground, but brisbane were better than the GC are.
Still I'd rather it didn't rain than it did, which I guess shows that I agree with you.
Thats my point, in the dry we are at least a 5 goal better team than GC and in the wet it just takes that bit of extra time with the odd slip, a skewed handball, a kick off the side of the boot and its just time that would otherwise be spent bending them over drilling goals but instead theres a lot more boundary throw in's which is more wasted time and before you know it you have only outscored them by 7 goals at halftime and with the ground getting chopped up its unlikely they have a chance of covering the 16-17 goal margin they need.
No matter how good a wet weather team you are you wont kick as many goals on a wet day as you would in the dry (unless you are stkilda)
No matter how good a wet weather team you are you wont kick as many goals on a wet day as you would in the dry (unless you are stkilda
)
- Banned
- #170
what do people think of these selections?
carlton 40+, sydney 1-39, freo 1-39, geelong -68.5, tigers 40+, crows 1-39, hawks 40+
as a multi it comes to 335.41
thoughts?
carlton 40+, sydney 1-39, freo 1-39, geelong -68.5, tigers 40+, crows 1-39, hawks 40+
as a multi it comes to 335.41
thoughts?
Tarkyn_24
Okeydoke7 is [redacted]
- Dec 23, 2006
- 53,974
- 77,029
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
10u onto Geel >99.5($5) into Coll >15.5 ($1.37) at $6.85.
Planning to hedge come Sunday morning if the Cats result comes up, reducing my effective Coll >15.5 leg to $1.28. Happy to sacriice 4u to ensure that I get my 10u back come Sunday.
Obviously some will say I should've just chucked 2u extra on just the Cats leg but at least this way I'm not sacrificing 12u should the Cats leg not come up. Hopefully the appropriate Eagles PYOL continues to drift.
Planning to hedge come Sunday morning if the Cats result comes up, reducing my effective Coll >15.5 leg to $1.28. Happy to sacriice 4u to ensure that I get my 10u back come Sunday.
Obviously some will say I should've just chucked 2u extra on just the Cats leg but at least this way I'm not sacrificing 12u should the Cats leg not come up. Hopefully the appropriate Eagles PYOL continues to drift.
PREMIERSHIP PIES
Debutant
Liking carlton u.39.5.. carlton is known to perform in a big game such as the cats blues game last week, and than a week later they win but not convincingly.. they'll get up by 3 to 4 goals, plus the dees at the G are a very different team to dees at ETIHAD... my anker in all my multis this weekend!!!
my anker in all my multis this weekend!!!
3 units Melbourne @ $5.005 - Carlton deserved favourites but last week would've been tough and the Dees are pretty good at the G.
6 units North Melbourne @ $2.267 (profit $76) - Discussed it in this thread previously but I reckon the Swans have fallen off a bit and am happy to take the Roos as outsiders here as I have them slight favourites.
1.5 units Gold Coast @ $16.78 - just because it's a ridiculous price for a H2H game at home and who knows how they'll come out in their first game at Carrara. Would doubt that they'll get embarassed like their first Gabba game
3 units Port Adelaide @ $4.5137 - reckon Richmond are too short for a team who are unknown on the road. Happy to take Port at (IMO) overs here
3 units Brisbane @ $4 - they have an OK recent record at AAMI and despite last week the Crows are a shambles.
6 units North Melbourne @ $2.267 (profit $76) - Discussed it in this thread previously but I reckon the Swans have fallen off a bit and am happy to take the Roos as outsiders here as I have them slight favourites.
1.5 units Gold Coast @ $16.78 - just because it's a ridiculous price for a H2H game at home and who knows how they'll come out in their first game at Carrara. Would doubt that they'll get embarassed like their first Gabba game
3 units Port Adelaide @ $4.5137 - reckon Richmond are too short for a team who are unknown on the road. Happy to take Port at (IMO) overs here
3 units Brisbane @ $4 - they have an OK recent record at AAMI and despite last week the Crows are a shambles.
Liking carlton u.39.5.. carlton is known to perform in a big game such as the cats blues game last week, and than a week later they win but not convincingly.. they'll get up by 3 to 4 goals, plus the dees at the G are a very different team to dees at ETIHAD...
do you have some stats to back up that first thing? a quick look at last year and i don't see anything out of the ordinary, infact the only match that stands out as being a big match and they were competitive was a match with Collingwood, the next week they beat the Saints by ten goals.
the MCG thing is debatable too, Melbourne have only beaten interstate sides, Essendon and Richmond in their last 30 matches there.
Carlton play it pretty well, most of their losses in the last 20 matches there have come from Collingwood or Essendon (bunny).
- Jul 22, 2008
- 1,275
- 34
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
- Other Teams
- Nth Adl Roosters, NY Knicks,WestHam
very good odds & pretty good chances each one i reckon, no damage done at those odds.
