AFL Round 12

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I usually only find value in about half of the games H2H wise each weekend, but surprisingly enough I have bet on every single game, except one involving my team this season. I have no problem betting with or against my team if the value is there.

I have learnt to bet with my head and not the heart :thumbsu:
Fair enough. TBH since the flag I could probably do it if I could make an unbiased call but years of supporting them have meant that I reckon they should be no more than about $1.30 each game :p

I guess this year I'm now betting against Pies players for most goals which I wouldn't do previously
 
Thomas out, jump on the dees before they come in to much.

They just have a real knack of negating our run out of the backline which stops us from creating any sort of play.
 

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Massive value in GC :eek: I think they will win that game, so great odds.
In on this. Gold Coast are a big chance.

Also thinking about having a go at Adelaide.. I know they've been pretty average, but WC are playing away and struggled at times against GC.. Gives me some hope.. Not sure about this one yet tho'

As ManWithNoName said, Geelong look tasty w/ no Buddy for the Hawks (has this been confirmed?).

Good round for betting :thumbsu:
 
WCE, Syd and Carl....1000 already on, cant see any of them losing


Melb at the line is juicy

Geel look like value, cant remember when they last lost to Hawks (well i can) buddy in doubt and Hodge limping off at the end of easier games doesnt bode well for a 4 qtr performance of this std.
 
Which betting exchange offers the most bet types and multiples for AFL? I am having trouble finding out where to put on a multi that mixes different bet types. The only one I can see is on sportingbet which has only H2H multi. I can't see where to do a multi with line betting or mixing multis with another sport for example?? Which site has the most to offer for this?
 
Which betting exchange offers the most bet types and multiples for AFL? I am having trouble finding out where to put on a multi that mixes different bet types. The only one I can see is on sportingbet which has only H2H multi. I can't see where to do a multi with line betting or mixing multis with another sport for example?? Which site has the most to offer for this?

if the legs conflict with each other it won't let you put it on

centrebet is probably the leader for AFL
 

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if the legs conflict with each other it won't let you put it on

centrebet is probably the leader for AFL
Yep, looks like centrebet has the most available combinations, I don't like the design too much. What is Bet365 like? I am only interested in betting on AFL and Football (soccer) games. Unless there is a better site someone can recommend I will join centrebet. If anyone has a promotional code feel free to PM me. Is there anything I should know about centrebet, eg cheapest/fastest deposit/withdrawal method etc?
 
A couple of small early plays for me:

0.5U WBD 1st 15 @2.15 (Sportsbet)
It's a pity there is no market for 1st to 10, I'm pretty sure they have been the first to that in every game except against the WCE and Essendon. 2.15 is overs for 1st to 15.

0.3U MEL ML @5.5 (Centrebet)
Should be about 4 imo.
 
3u GC line at Sportsbet at +23.5.

Gives a 4 goal leeway incase they have a fadeout in a quarter. Not sure if they will bring a 4 quarter performance, but last weekend's second half performance shows that they can lift in the 2nd half, similar to win over PA. If they pull a 4 quarter performance i think they will win. Senior players are standing up and the youngsters are starting to get the groove of AFL standard. Will be interesting to see how they respond to the travel though.
 
Given the support for North this round it is scary to imagine what Gold Coast will be capable of in three years time. I mean if people think they are a 50/50 chance of beating a a team that you would think will finish 12th this year in three years time hey should be capable of beating teams in the top 6.
 
I've doubled my initial betting pool (overall, not just the bets I post here) for the year so am ramping up my bets. I'm also re-aligning my units so that they reflect the 1 unit = 1% of pool as 1% is a nice round number again.

So what was previously 5 units is now 1 unit, if that makes sense. New figures:

Overall:
H2H: +8.8186 units, 19-25-3
Most Goals: +21.46 units, 14-64-7 (on a game basis)
Total: +30.2786 units


This week:

2 units St Kilda @ $1.56 - the Dogs are shot and the Saints, despite the second half against the Pies, are just getting their mojo back I reckon. They'll enjoy Etihad too I think.

1 unit Gold Coast @ $3.45 - I think North should be favourites but they're probably too far in front here. Happy to take a risk as GC's Metricon Stadium form is still a bit of an unknown

1 unit Richmond @ $4.0396 - Again slight overs I think and Richmond have the ability to surprise on the road. Bye issue is a concern but I like the price.

2 units Essendon @ $2.20 - Getting in early before Watson is formally put back in. They're a different side with him in and in the unlikely event he misses I still think $2.20 is value against a Freo side where the injuries are catching up.
 
Multi

CA LANUS or Draw
NORTH MELBOURNE (Handicap -22.5)
CARLTON | More Goals Than Behinds
SYDNEY H2H
COLLINGWOOD | More Goals Than Behinds

1 unit @ 9.82
Really like this leg in theory @ $2.03, especially with Merrett out, but just looking at their record this year and Carlton are 3-7 for goals > behinds, and 0-3 at Etihad Stadium, only one of which was particularly close (11.18, 11.19, 14.16).
 

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AFL Round 12

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