AFL Round 18

[free at last]

Im a WA boy aswell. So i saw a bit of rain all day and thought this game is likely to go unders anyway (Most eagle games at Subi have, just about all IIRC) as they are a good defensive unit and the rain meant all the power/tall forwards for both teams would struggle. Ended up raining way more than anyone predicted i think the weather men will be without a job after tonight.

BOM forecasted a shower or two.Rain periods more appropriate.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Richmond/GC/swans/crows

View attachment 70011

Richmond
Sydney
Adelaide

$500 @ $9.20

1/3rd of the way there. Could even hedge now for profit but where's the fun in that

 

[stewie griffen]

If it gets down to the last leg I'll think about hedging off the stake... Maybe

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

If it gets down to the last leg I'll think about hedging off the stake... Maybe

Yeah I'll be hedging if Sydney get up

 

[foxy_dal]

I know this gets brought up here a lot but why put Crows in the multi in the first place if your going to hedge? Unless you have changed your mind on who will win it is similar to backing both sides of a line at $1.92.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

I know this gets brought up here a lot but why put Crows in the multi in the first place if your going to hedge? Unless you have changed your mind on who will win it is similar to backing both sides of a line at $1.92.

If I hadn't put the crows in there and only Richmond/Sydney, we'd be having the exact same discussion

 

[ricardogp]

Am I right in saying Hawthorn have come in over 20c? I'm sure I saw them at $2.15 earlier in the week... You reckon this is just market movement? I don't mind because I have them -7.5 @ $2.40

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[Spads]

Am I right in saying Hawthorn have come in over 20c? I'm sure I saw them at $2.15 earlier in the week... You reckon this is just market movement? I don't mind because I have them -7.5 @ $2.40

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Yeah, I got on at $2.15. There was $2.20 and even $2.25 available before that though.

 

[foxy_dal]

If I hadn't put the crows in there and only Richmond/Sydney, we'd be having the exact same discussion

Sure, let's have that discussion. Interested to see how others think when it comes to multis.

For my example I will use Tigers $2.30, Hawks $1.80 and Swans $2 and your stake of $500.


On it's own as a single:

$500 on Tigers @ $2.30 = $1,150 return and $650 profit

Now as a multi:

$500 on Tigers/Swans @ $4.60 = $2,300 return

Now if you were to fully hedge on the Hawks that would add:

$1,278 on Hawks @ $1.80 = $2,300 return

But you would have spent a total of $1,778 for a return of $2,300 meaning just a $522 profit.

So my point is that if my figures are correct you are costing yourself $128 by not just betting a single to begin with.

I assume you may have meant you were thinking of hedging to just win your original 500 back but the same thing will happen just at a smaller cost to you.

 

[Lensen]

You are correct and its easy to see why you make money versus those who seek to "lock in profit"

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Brisbane + GC under 172.5

Chance of rain is 80%
Possible Thunderstorm
Wind after 3pm is N 17 km/h

 

[DylanR]

Im jumping on Syd H2H

 

[TI KING]

Im jumping on Syd H2H

Same. They appear to be drifting more. 2.05 best I've found so far

 

[DylanR]

Same. They appear to be drifting more. 2.05 best I've found so far

Yep i got 2.05 aswell. I wonder if they will drift more a few hours before the game starts. I can't understand how you couldn't back sydney at 2.05

 

[ricardogp]

So my point is that if my figures are correct you are costing yourself $128 by not just betting a single to begin with.

The other perspective is that without the hedge you have the prospect of winning more money, but there is also the risk you will lose it as well. With hedging you are locking in profit, as Lenny said.

I agree that if you intend to hedge from the start then you might as well bet singles and then be totally in control of your next leg's stake. But everyone is different when it comes to risk.

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[Sketi]

Thoughts on Brisbane today? Rockliff is a massive in, at the Gabba.

Gold Coast looked a bit lost and lacking in leadership without Ablett against the Dogs, but on the other hand it could have been they were tired from playing the final quarter with no bench against Collingwood?

In any case 2.50 looks pretty tempting w money back offer etc.

 

[Keystone agony]

Sure, let's have that discussion. Interested to see how others think when it comes to multis.

For my example I will use Tigers $2.30, Hawks $1.80 and Swans $2 and your stake of $500.


On it's own as a single:

$500 on Tigers @ $2.30 = $1,150 return and $650 profit

Now as a multi:

$500 on Tigers/Swans @ $4.60 = $2,300 return

Now if you were to fully hedge on the Hawks that would add:

$1,278 on Hawks @ $1.80 = $2,300 return

But you would have spent a total of $1,778 for a return of $2,300 meaning just a $522 profit.

So my point is that if my figures are correct you are costing yourself $128 by not just betting a single to begin with.

I assume you may have meant you were thinking of hedging to just win your original 500 back but the same thing will happen just at a smaller cost to you.

Does your same theory come into play with more legs?

Ill hedge my last with collingwood as im sort of changing my mind

I guess it would

 

[Keystone agony]

I have a feeling a big name must be a late out for Sydney - likely Tippett

 

[Nothing]

You are correct and its easy to see why you make money versus those who seek to "lock in profit"

But it's a guaranteed return. GUARANTEED!!!!

 

[Keystone agony]

Bris vs GCS

I sort of see the midfield fairly even. Rockliff, Hanley are the 2 best players on the ground IMO as they are matured bodies. They then have guys like Aish, Mayes, Lester and Martin in the ruck whos in ripping form with Zorko having stints in the guts.

I also feel Maguire, Patful ect might be able to contain the tall sun forwards. If it rains it helps brisbane alot and would expect a low scoreing tussle to go either way.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Bris vs GCS

I sort of see the midfield fairly even. Rockliff, Hanley are the 2 best players on the ground IMO as they are matured bodies. They then have guys like Aish, Mayes, Lester and Martin in the ruck whos in ripping form with Zorko having stints in the guts.

I also feel Maguire, Patful ect might be able to contain the tall sun forwards. If it rains it helps brisbane alot and would expect a low scoreing tussle to go either way.

I went with the unders since it's going to be a low scoring game. I feel like it can go either way so I'm not going to pick the lions tonight

 

[foxy_dal]

The other perspective is that without the hedge you have the prospect of winning more money, but there is also the risk you will lose it as well. With hedging you are locking in profit, as Lenny said.

I agree that if you intend to hedge from the start then you might as well bet singles and then be totally in control of your next leg's stake. But everyone is different when it comes to risk.

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Not quite sure that was what Lenny was getting across as his point. Personally Hedging is only useful if any of the below happen:

A. You have changed your opinion on the result and now want to basically get your money back
B. You have a longshot that has come in come in a lot and for little cost you can guarantee you get your stake back or lock in a portion of the potential profit, but again this comes down to what odds you believe the bet really should be.

Does your same theory come into play with more legs?

Ill hedge my last with collingwood as im sort of changing my mind

I guess it would

The number of legs doesn't make any difference to me. I'll use a 10 leg multi with $1 on it paying $100,000 as an example. Say you have hit the first 9 legs and the last leg is Sydney at $2. There are 2 types of people in this discussion:

Person A who believe they only have $1 at risk here
Person B who knows that really they have 50k on the Swans.

But yeh if you are changing your mind on the Crows to Collingwood then you would pretty much be paying a small fee to cancel out that leg unless the market moved enough for you, ie you got both Crows and Pies at $2+.

 

[ricardogp]

Person A and B is exactly the right analogy, spot on.

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[Keystone agony]

Id be person B

 

[ricardogp]

It doesn't look like there will be more than 1mm of rain at the Gabba (according to the internet). Can't see that affecting the game much. Unless the report is wrong again...

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