AFL Round 18

[DT_35]

i got $2.50 on bulldogs /swans under 151 earlier
I was thinking of getting on 0-18 goals @ 5.50
interesting to see what dogs 0-60 swans 0-60 would be.

2495 SYD 0-60 Pts/WBD 0-60 Pt 16.00 $

@ TAB

 

[stevceski]

Then what did you do? Get a coffee? Throw one in the Mrs?

Do tell.

hahahaha GOLD.

 

[sneak]

Yer nice just put 20 on it

 

[Damarus]

Did ok last week in my first week of posting my mug bets (Been doing poor the few weeks prior while not posting them). Here's hoping to continue that run of luck...

1U - Saints v Crows >150 points / Swans v Dogs >150 points @5.25

1U - Crows +39.5 / Lions +42.5 / Freo +15.5 @6.85

2U - Freo H2H @2.75

Not much to explain really... Saints/Crows and Swans/Dogs games should be low scoring. Crows and Lions lines were very generous, and while neither are likely to win (meaning I'd get more value on the 1-39's for Saints/North) I don't want to discount them. Shouldn't really bet on my own team but I'm a mug and I think Freo can do it!

 

[Starlin Castro]

1.5U - Ade/StK under 167.5 @ 1.87
1U - Adelaide +51.5 @ 1.48

Small plays, just to make the match a bit interesting. Good luck all.

 

[Deledio_Judd]

Then what did you do? Get a coffee? Throw one in the Mrs?

Do tell.

no

 

[midnight_toker]

There is some good value for highest scoring team of round if you think one of these short price favorites will get on a roll and score more than the pies.

Pies are $1.80

One of the Etihad playing favourites are probably the most likely...

Saints are $11
Cats $4.50
North $5

 

[Lensen]

Most goals tomorrow

0.5 units Power @ $26 (Centrebet)

0.13 units Gilbee @ $41 (Centrebet)
0.37 units McVeigh @ $26 (Sportsbet)

0.5 units Lynch @ $26 (Centrebet)

0.5 units Reimers @ $26 (Centrebet)

 

[Amack]

Saints never kick a big score so I'm loving the within bet tonight.

Tipster: The Oracle
Event: St Kilda V Adelaide (ES)
Date of Event: 22-07-2011
Time of Event: 19:40
Sport: AFL
Tip: Adelaide +39.5
Odds: $1.77
Units: 4
Sportsbook: Centrebet
Comments: Saints just aren't a high scoring team. Even a moderate start should keep this line safe.

 

[twarby]

unless you think the Crows can win, you are throwing away 60 odd cents not taking 1-39

 

[twarby]

Yeah Goodesy back off thats my area.

please, you're a rookie

 

[denitofinito]

Gonna follow the crowd with a few bets.

2u Saints 1-39 @ 2.48 (betfair)

Adel +26.5
Bris +40.5
Dogs +11.5
1u @ 7.07

FGS
0.4u Gamble @ 17
0.5u Danger @ 15
0.6u Tippett @ 11

Most Goals
0.8u Tippett @ 8

 

[laam]

getting on the standard
1u saints 1-39 @ 2.38
also liked the wells tip earlier in this thread
2u wells more possessions than rawlings @ 1.85

 

[The_Doctor]

unless you think the Crows can win, you are throwing away 60 odd cents not taking 1-39

Crows can win. Its not likely but the way the Saints play anyone is a chance of beating them at some stage in the game. If the Crows bring there first half of last Friday night they will be right in this match

 

[TurboBreuster]

FGS
0.2U Tippett @12 (Betfair)
0.2U Milne @12 (Sportsalive)

MGS
0.4U Milne @4.25 (Sportingbet)
0.2U Dangerfield @17.5 (Betfair)

 

[twarby]

i agree, i was pointing it out to him as it seemed he thought Saints would win however

 

[5 Bucks]

Milne. AGAIN. This is ridiculous. Odds doubled on sportsbet for kicking the 2nd goal too.

 

[Lensen]

Last 5 Saints games have had lower second halves than first halves:

78 v 65
83 v 79
110 v 39
91 v 81
80 v 58

79 in this game at half time, reckon 150.5 is almost what the actual line should be so I reckon Centrebet's $3 is value

 

[TurboBreuster]

I agree Lenny, the 2nd half will be lower scoring! Adding:

1.5U total <163.5 @1.85 (B365)

0.12U Montagna 2H FGS @26 (Centrebet)

 

[twarby]

Last 5 Saints games have had lower second halves than first halves:

78 v 65
83 v 79
110 v 39
91 v 81
80 v 58

79 in this game at half time, reckon 150.5 is almost what the actual line should be so I reckon Centrebet's $3 is value

just like the nbl
same sort of quality too

 

[Lensen]

just like the nbl
same sort of quality too

adelaide getting the ball out of the D70 would be handy

 

[Purrfect Pussies]

Ouch for the Fisher over McEvoy bets. Subbed.

 

[Borgsta]

under 22.5 goals @ $1.83 - 1u

 

[TurboBreuster]

I have the feeling that the Saints will throw in the towel and lose this quarter by 1 goal plus. Adding:

0.5U Adel +82.5 @3.75 (B365)
0.05U Adel +72.5 @10 (B365)

 

[yamahamoto]

Adelaide +14.5 last quarter 1u