AFL round 21

[Atavistic]

Anyone like Melbourne-GWS for lowest total game score @4.50?

Just placed 0.25U on: Port -17.5, Hawks-Freo U166.5, Melb-GWS U167.5@6.79

 

[banana_bus]

Walters, Ballantyne, Pavlich, Mayne, Z.Clarke vs Breust, Puopolo, Ceglar, Hale

Freo have never had a 'forward line' im not sure how that really comes into the equation. However i think theyd almost argue that have the better forwardline going into the game if Roughead is out and i highly doubt Gunston plays, but i guess you just have to wait and see.

Walters hasn't played all season. Mayne is out of form, Pavlich isn't fit and Zac isnt a forward.

What I'm saying is they're both crap forward lines (coming into this match) and this will not be where the game is won.

With McPharlin out Freos defence gets hit pretty hard.

Hawks just keep getting the job done, and Freo are not Freo right now... Ive never seen them this inconsistent...

 

[tibor]

Early TML play

Carlton/Geelong Over 188.5 - went over 200 earlier in the year, no weather at etihad, both teams scoring well recently.

Adding

Syd/Stk O175.5
Gc/Port O174.5
Ess/WCE U179.5
Coll/Bris U170.5
Adel/Rich O179.5
North/WB U185.5
Melb/GWS U168.5
Frem/Haw No Play

Also loaded up on GWS +11.5. Melbourne are a rabble, the giants will probably win but will take the line to be safe.

 

[Willzzz]

3U – Carlton Blues +22.5 @ $1.91 (Bet365)
0.25U – HT: Carlton/Carlton @ $5.50 (Bet365)

 

[Sketi]

Sydney vs St.Kilda - As Zealbee has already said the Swans line looks appealing. Only thing I'm worried about is Swans resting some players and maybe taking the foot off the pedal a bit.

Longmire has come out and said we won't be resting any players.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Doing a multi:

Carlton vs Geelong
Head to Head
Geelong

Sydney vs St Kilda
Head to Head
Sydney

Gold Coast vs Port Adelaide
Head to Head
Port Adelaide

Essendon vs West Coast
Points
West Coast +4.5

Essendon vs West Coast
West Coast Under 24.5

Essendon vs West Coast
Winning Margin 39.5
West Coast Under 39.5

Collingwood vs Brisbane
Head to Head
Collingwood

North Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs
Head to Head
North Melbourne

Winning Margin 24.5
North Melbourne Over 24.5

North Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs
Winning Margin 39.5
North Melbourne Over 39.5

Collingwood vs Brisbane
Winning Margin 24.5
Collingwood Over 24.5

Melbourne vs Greater Western Sydney
Head to Head
Melbourne

Adelaide vs Richmond
Head to Head
Richmond

Adelaide vs Richmond
Winning Margin 39.5
Richmond Under 39.5

Collingwood vs Brisbane
Winning Margin 39.5
Collingwood Over 39.5expand

1. Fixed Win$1.99

BET SUMMARY

• Total Legs 15
• Multi Return $18711.69
• Projected Pay $187116.90
• Total Cost $10.00

A couple of 50/50 with richmond and west coast but overall it consists of most of the favorites I'm thinking this is a %5-10 chance of happening.

 

[BROOMY]

Sydney at the line is tempting. Even 100+ at $7.

 

[Anzac16]

Some early bets for the week:

2U - Port -15.5 @ 1.92 (Luxbet)

Port are a top 6 team this year and whilst they've had a bit of a slump, they should come out and beat the Suns fairly well. Suns were pretty dismal against us, looking tired and a few injuries. Line is already out to 18.5 at some other agencies.

1U - Sydney -60.5 @ 1.91 (Bet 365)

Think the Swans will smash them by a lot. Home ground advantage and the chance to basically secure themselves the top spot going into finals. If they don't rest anyone, this could be ugly.

1.5U - Carlton vs Geelong Over 188.5 @ 1.91 (Bet 365)

Seems a bit low for me. These 2 average 203 over the last 5 games at Etihad against each other, and both look fairly likely to score high again.


Honestly I'm tempted to go after Carlton at the line and SU as well. Geelong will be sore after the game with Fremantle and we seemed to coast after HT. Think the game will be close. Not sure if this is some bias kicking in though.

 

[Jay-Z]

Agree with most on here. My plays so far:

1U Port -17.5 @ 1.91
2U Syd -61.5 @ 1.91
2U Carl/Gee O188.5 @ 1.91
2U Carl +20.5 @ 1.91
1U Carl SU @ 3.35

 

[DylanR]

Early plays so far
3U Carl +21.5 @1.90
3U Swans -61.5 @1.90
I think both lines will move later in the week thats why i got on early

Multi -
Carl +21.5
Swans -61.5
Port Adelaide
Collingwood -36.5

1U @9.60

 

[Jay-Z]

Adding

Syd/Stk O175.5
Gc/Port O174.5
Ess/WCE U179.5
Coll/Bris U170.5
Adel/Rich O179.5
North/WB U185.5
Melb/GWS U168.5
Frem/Haw No Play

Have gone very similar:
Carl/Gee O188.5 (mentioned above)
Syd/Stk No play (my model actually said unders but since you're going overs and Sydney are likely to smash them, I'm leaving it alone)
Gc/Port O176.5
Ess/WCE U179.5
Coll/Bris U170.5
Adel/Rich O179.5
North/WB U185.5
Melb/GWS U168.5
Frem/Haw No Play

 

[ricardogp]

Some early bets:

2u Carton +24.5 $ $1.71 (missed out on the early line)
1u Hawks @ $2.08
1u Port Win / Collingwood >15.5 / North Win @ $2.32

Think the Swans could break 100 against the Saints, so 0.25u Sudney 100 or more @ $6.50

 

[Anzac16]

Adding Carlton as they are coming in.

1U - Carlton +20.5 @ $1.91 (Betstar)
.5U - Carlton SU @ $3.40 (Betstar)

 

[tibor]

Have gone very similar:

The Sydney game is an interesting one. If you compare midfields it's quite one sided. Sydney will take it out the middle far more often than St Kilda, giving the likes of tippett, franklin and mcglynn plenty of it. The St Kilda D is rubbish and will leak goals to these key forwards. You'd expect Sydney to score on the higher side of their average, upwards of about 120-130. Five goals a quarter from those three alone is quite reasonable. That leaves the saints to get about 55-60 (they're a woeful team but they're perfectly capable of getting this). They'll struggle, but I think once the swans are up by 10+ goals they'll relax a bit and let them get a late few. This is all relying on a full strength sydney side btw.

As an aside I have just traded roo out of my fantasy team, so he will kick a bag now.

 

[X_box_X]

Saints at $1.65 with TAB for most losses.

Yes thanks.

 

[Jay-Z]

The Sydney game is an interesting one. If you compare midfields it's quite one sided. Sydney will take it out the middle far more often than St Kilda, giving the likes of tippett, franklin and mcglynn plenty of it. The St Kilda D is rubbish and will leak goals to these key forwards. You'd expect Sydney to score on the higher side of their average, upwards of about 120-130. Five goals a quarter from those three alone is quite reasonable. That leaves the saints to get about 55-60 (they're a woeful team but they're perfectly capable of getting this). They'll struggle, but I think once the swans are up by 10+ goals they'll relax a bit and let them get a late few. This is all relying on a full strength sydney side btw.

Interesting analysis and I can't disagree with much there. Based on this, do you think the Sportsbet special of Franklin and Tippett kicking more goals than St Kilda @ $4.5 is value?

 

[TheKanga]

Carlton 1-39 - 1.5u @ 3.80

 

[tibor]

Interesting analysis and I can't disagree with much there. Based on this, do you think the Sportsbet special of Franklin and Tippett kicking more goals than St Kilda @ $4.5 is value?

Franklin will kick a few, but Tippett is so up and down you wouldn't know what he's going to do. If you assume St Kilda will kick their 50-60, made up of about 8-9 goals. Generously give buddy 5 (realistic). Can Tippett kick 3-4? Maybe. 4.50 is nice though. You never know, Franklin might go nuts against average D and get it himself. I might put a small amount on now that you've mentioned it.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Hawthorn H2H
Collingwood H2H
Melbourne + GWS under 167.5
Sydney 40 +

$5.66 and put $20

 

[balmainforever]

Saints at $1.65 with TAB for most losses.

Yes thanks.

Not scared of a dead heat????

 

[X_box_X]

Not scared of a dead heat????

It's basically a wooden spoon market, so no dead heat.

 

[ricardogp]

Carlton are coming in nicely but 1 week for Roughead means I'm less confident on the Hawthorn H2H...

Sent from my HTC One S using Tapatalk

 

[Robo87]

It's basically a wooden spoon market, so no dead heat.

so on this topic least wins, but instead using SPORTSBETS "least wins" - if both St.K & GWS draw for least wins at end of season, that means your total winnings for either St.K or GWS get divided by 2 correct?? The odds are:
St.K at $1.45 and
GWS at $4.00 , so if they drew for least wins, and for example u staked 3units on GWS, you would still win 6units for the dead heat right?

trying to clarify this so i know if i can go wrong by putting money on GWS? or is the betting infact for least points AND least percentage? (ie position 18th).

 

[Keystone agony]

I might be having a quiet one this weekend. Not a whole lot I like. Going to keep away from TMLs.

Not a lot I like for player exotics this week.

I really like Carlton +22.5 but have truly missed that line now.

 

[Keystone agony]

What do people think of the GWS vs Melb game. I just cant see Melb kicking a score. Whereas GWS can.