AFL Round 21

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Couple for the weekend.

Tipster: The Oracle
Event: Hawthorn V Port Adelaide (MCG)
Date of Event: 13-08-2011
Time of Event: 14:10
Sport: AFL
Tip: The Field to beat Lance Franklin most goals
Odds: $2.58
Units: 5
Sportsbook: Centrebet
Comments: Buddy is the most likely to kick most goals in this game but in what should turn out to be a free for all anyone could kick goals against Port. Don't forget Ports tall backs are actually pretty decent. Value to good here

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Tipster: The Oracle
Event: Fremantle V Carlton (PS)
Date of Event: 13-08-2011
Time of Event: 13:10
Sport: AFL
Tip: Michael Barlow more than 24.5 possessions
Odds: $1.7
Units: 4
Sportsbook: Centrebet
Comments: Forget his average of 22 Barlow has had more than 24 in all games apart from when he was a sub against Sydney
 

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Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.35. The Saints will try and slow the game down and should be competitive enough to keep it under 39.
Good start to the weekend. Will have a small interest in Hawthorn to cover the line against the Port kids.
 
2U STK +9.5 1q @1.92 (Sportsbet)
1.2U 1H <86.5 @1.9 (Centrebet)

A bad start for me with both of my bets losing but the full time equivalent’s winning.



Adding:
3U CARL/FREO <173.5 @1.9 (Centrebet)
A final like game with both teams needing to win the Blues to make the 4 and the Dockers to make the 8. The weather conditions on the BOM site also look average.
 
ROUND 21 FRIDAY NIGHT:

1ST Q - SAINTS +9.5 (x2) LOSS
ATS - SAINTS +37.5 (x2)WINNER

ADDING:
2ND H - SAINTS +20.5 (x1.5) WINNER
Total game line +33.5

2-1 +1.3u Added last night :thumbsu:

AFL SATURDAY:

ATS - POWER +78.5 (x2)
ATS - BLUES -16.5 (x5)

SPORTINGBETS SUPERSTAR DREAMTEAM MATCHUPS
G.ABLETT (GC) over T.ROCKLIFF & J.REDDEN (BRIS) (x2)
 
Having to only use TAB/Centrebet for most goals Sunday as I won't be around:

0.4 units Dunn @ $26 (Centrebet, $21.28)
0.1 units Sylvia @ $41 (Centrebet, $22.80)

0.4 units Vickery @ $15 (TAB, $14.11)
0.1 units Miller @ $67 (Centrebet, $20.62)

0.5 units Menzel @ $34 (Centrebet, $20.13)
 
A bad start for me with both of my bets losing but the full time equivalent’s winning.



Adding:
3U CARL/FREO <173.5 @1.9 (Centrebet)
A final like game with both teams needing to win the Blues to make the 4 and the Dockers to make the 8. The weather conditions on the BOM site also look average.

FGS
0.2U Rioli @11 (Sportingbet)
0.15U Schulz @15 (Sportsalive)
0.2U Betts @11 (Sportsalive)
0.15U Sandilands @29 (B365)
Seems good odds and is 17 or less at all of the big 3.
0.15U Ballantyne @15 (Centrebet)

MGS
0.25U Reimers - Tailed Lenny yeterday
0.3U Rioli @11 (Centrebet)
0.3U Bruest @8.5 (Sportingbet)
0.4U Betts @6 (Sportsbet)
0.1U Sandilands @34 (Sportsbet)
0.15U Ballantyne @12 (Centrebet)

1.8U Carl -16.5 @1.96 (Pinnacle)
 
A radio news item today quoted Port Coach M. Primus saying he senses a big showing from his team against Hawthorn today and that in the past they have performed well against them and he can feel a real fortitude amongst the group................

Muppet or Masterstroke? Not the smartest thing to go on record saying if they're going to cop a flogging today. I think it's time he just shut up and got through the next few weeks.

I sincerely hope he is right and they are competitive but away from home he looks doomed.
 
2 units - Barlow > Broughton disposals @ $1.80

I'm guessing here but Broughton probably looks after one of Carlton's small forwards such as Walker. It seems he's more likely to be used defensively now that Barlow is back in midfield. If that's not the way it pans out, then it's a 50-50 bet. I think the odds are decent on that basis.
 

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Adding:
3U CARL/FREO <173.5 @1.9 (Centrebet)
A final like game with both teams needing to win the Blues to make the 4 and the Dockers to make the 8. The weather conditions on the BOM site also look average.
Not a cloud in the sky here at the moment. I don't think the weather will move in until after the game. I still think it'll land below the line, but not all that confident.
 
ADDING:
2nd H - HAWKS -63.5 (x3.5)
Total game line -155.5

Port are the worst team in the comp by a country mile!
 
2-1 +1.3u Added last night :thumbsu:

AFL SATURDAY:

ATS - POWER +78.5 (x2) LOSS
ATS - BLUES -16.5 (x5) WINNER

SPORTINGBETS SUPERSTAR DREAMTEAM MATCHUPS
G.ABLETT (GC) over T.ROCKLIFF & J.REDDEN (BRIS) (x2)

ADDING:
2nd H - HAWKS -63.5 (x3.5) WINNER
Total game line -155.5

Port are the worst team in the comp by a country mile!

2-1 +6.3u today :thumbsu:
Small play on G.Ablett tonight also
 
1u thomas over montagna @ 1.8
1u west coast more points than collingwood @ 1.88
0.5u dogs more than collingwood @ 2.6
0.5u dons more than collingwood @ 2.25
2u lewis over cornes @ 1.9
1u gia over zaharakis @ 1.9
again just on recent form
4u barlow > 24.5 possesions @ 1.75
2u jacobs over ottens in DT @ 1.87
ottens just back from injury, jacobs in rare form

1u mcevoy over jolly in DT @ 1.85
0.5u fisher top DT back @8.5
1u freo win @ 3.11
1u GC win @ 3.27

Weekend has started out ok
 
Twarby's definition of a mug must be someone who always makes winning bets at relatively high odds and makes a lot of money because I gave everyone another excellent bet and all Twarby could say is that I am a mug.
 
you said i was a mug shortly after i posted my bet...

So why am i a mug then? Please give a serious logical answer.

I have made two bets in the last two weeks. Both winning bets, one at $1.55 and the other at $2.00
 
Hawks -77.5 @ $1.90
Lions -17.5 @ $1.90

Port and Gold Coast are running out of steam. Kids are struggling with the long season. Port will get smashed by the Hawks at the G. Lions will be too big and strong for the Coasters this time. :thumbsu:

Excellent conditions at the G today for another 100+ hiding to get Vlad and the media talking. Buddy to kick 8.


Excellent day at the office.
 

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AFL Round 21

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