AFL - ROUND 24 - Final Round

[Thedeftouch]

I think backing every outsider this week would turn a profit.

Simple but true imo

 

[KardiniaPark]

I think backing every outsider this week would turn a profit.

I think every line except Geelong & Freo is extremely generous to the outsider this week. I might take those six for the lulz @ $47

 

[Ron]

The revised line for the Hawks and Suns game is 32.5

Not often you see a line come in 40 points.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Is anyone who took the 70+ earlier in the week going to attempt the huge middle here?

On one hand, it's a huge list of outs for the Hawks, but the replacements are decent players in their own right. On the other, the Suns would love nothing better than to push the Hawks all the way to the final siren, they have no reason to leave anything in the tank.

 

[DT_35]

Bye Bye Barry Hall on Sportingbet.

Surely 2-4 goals is the way to go? Paying $4
McPharlin is a decent defender, and Hall can't kick 5 or more for the 6th week in a row. Surely not?

I dunno really, it's his last game, so the Dogs will be looking for him at every opportunity. And not to mention he's in red hot form.

 

[The_Next_JB]

I dunno really, it's his last game, so the Dogs will be looking for him at every opportunity. And not to mention he's in red hot form.

I'm with 5 bucks on this. personally mchpharlin is the all australian full back for mine.

kept cloke to 4 goals in a 70 point loss
kept drew petrie to 0 goals in a 100 point loss
kept kreuzer to 0 goals
kept n. riewoldt to 0 goals
missed a game then was forward tagged by nicoski against wc
kept sam reid to 0 goals and 9 touches

all of this in the last 7 weeks

 

[Nothing]

Most goals thus far:

0.37 units Hawkins @ $29
0.07 units Menzel @ $51
0.06 units Varcoe @ $67

0.5 units K.Bradley @ $67

Were you aware that Sportingbet were doing a 50% bonus on Most goals in the COL v GEE and STK v CAR games?

 

[Thedeftouch]

Is anyone who took the 70+ earlier in the week going to attempt the huge middle here?

On one hand, it's a huge list of outs for the Hawks, but the replacements are decent players in their own right. On the other, the Suns would love nothing better than to push the Hawks all the way to the final siren, they have no reason to leave anything in the tank.

No, sticking with +71.5. No reason to pay vig on the current line, which is about right now imo.

However, I arbed all the random overseas books I could find who simply copied the numbers at varying stages. Obv not for large amounts, but you rarely see such a high % arb.

 

[half_back_flank]

No, sticking with +71.5. No reason to pay vig on the current line, which is about right now imo.

However, I arbed all the random overseas books I could find who simply copied the numbers at varying stages. Obv not for large amounts, but you rarely see such a high % arb.

888 .com still had GC at $17 at 11.30 last night.

Always pays to have a quick look at the odds comparison.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

888 .com still had Hawks at $17

Hawks at $17!!!

 

[camolah]

west coast 1-39
st kilda 1-39
sydney 1-39
collingwood 1-39
@31

stevey j 1st goal @ 10

 

[half_back_flank]

Hawks at $17!!!

Oh dear, I wish.

Sorry, meant the GC.

 

[5 Bucks]

1U Rischitelli paying $26 for most disposals in group 1. I know he has to beat Mitchell and Ablett, but Mitchell might be subbed off, and Gary can be kept to 28-29 like last week.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Anyone think Richmond at $23 for highest scoring team is worth a look?

North is paying $10 and is third favourite for highest score, and like a lot of other people here, I reckon Richmond are a huge chance in this game. Good value.

 

[Mudeo]

Anyone else tempted by Geelong more behinds than goals @ 3.8?

 

[Lensen]

Were you aware that Sportingbet were doing a 50% bonus on Most goals in the COL v GEE and STK v CAR games?

Nah mate I had no idea, thanks for pointing it out - had some very shit things to deal with this week so haven't been as across the offers etc that I'd like to be.

Sorry as well for not putting my odds in - head's elsewhere.

To update:

0.37 units Hawkins @ $29 + $150 bonus (Sportingbet, $18.52)
0.07 units Menzel @ $51 (Sportsbet, $28.94)
0.06 units Varcoe @ $67 (Centrebet, $35.62)

0.5 units I.Smith @ $17 (Sportingbet, $12.33)

0.5 units K.Bradley @ $67 (Centrebet, $14.41)

0.5 units McGrath @ $10 (Centrebet, $5.37)

0.5 units Betts @ $11.50 (after bonus) (Sportingbet, $5.23)

0.5 units T.Walker @ $10 (Centrebet, $6.08)

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Chin up Lenny, hopefully the punting gods look kindly on you this week.

 

[Lensen]

Chin up Lenny, hopefully the punting gods look kindly on you this week.

It's funny, last week I was very disappointed with the SportsAlive thing, now I've pretty much written it off and it's a "meh" thing to me now, and will treat it like a bonus should anything come up.

Funny thing, perspective! Anyway, sorry for the distraction into my sob story, back to betting

 

[Nothing]

Here's hoping Hawkins kicks a bag tonight

 

[Quantum]

I have a feeling Geelong will win tonight. I'm getting on for 3U.

I also love the Barry Hall bet 2-4 Goals @ $4. 3U on that too.

 

[midnight_toker]

Geelong at 3.55, against a team with the Minor Premiership already sewn up, coming back from Perth, and after Geelong put in a poor performance?? Yes please! Geelong should come out firing, and as insurance the 22.5 head start looks to me to be the bet of the year. Geelong's players have been rested periodically throughout the year, so their outs this week should be minimal. Those odds I think are completely wrong.

God I hope so. I put $25 on Australia to win the cricket into Cats & St George tonight last Tuesday at $8.55. But my bet today would be Pies over 15.5

 

[midnight_toker]

Bet of the year, Dogs to cover the line.

They are $3.50 for highest score of the round if your that keen. The venue will help too.

 

[5 Bucks]

People are seriously underestimating how good this Collingwood team is. I'm confident that they will win, and comfortably. 40+ @ $3.20 looks pretty good to me.

Also, the line for the total match points of 178.5 is way too low.

 

[NDFCHFC2]

Geel/Coll over 221 @ $10. I don't expect a bruising encounter, and both teams have the ability to move the ball quickly and score at will. Why would they want to engage in a slog and tire themselves out for no good reason. Free flowing game with the Pies kicking 20+ goals (+15 behinds). It's up to the Cats to make up the rest. Can they do it? I think so.

I think itll be a shootout and basically a goal frenzy with little resistance.

Game Total 201-210 @9.75 x3.5

211-220 @16.50 x4

221 + @11.75 x2.5

Ozbet

might have to hammer the 178 overs too

 

[Ron]

Took the over 176.5 for tonights game.

Good weather, should be a bit of a shootout, neither team will give anything away.