AFL Round 4

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Lyyynnnchy

Lyyynnnchy

Brownlow Medallist
10k Posts Veteran
Oct 10, 2007
10,137
5,958
London, UK
AFL Club
West Coast
Early odds below. I see some value in the underlined, Sydney H2H and possibly West Coast and North at the line whatever that may be. IMO Centrebet have it pretty spot on though.

Richmond - $10
Collingwood - $1.05

Hawthorn - $1.10
West Coast - $7.00

Carlton - $1.95
Essendon - $1.85

Sydney - $2.08
Geelong - $1.75

Port Adelaide - $3.10
Adelaide - $1.36

Gold Coast - $4.50
Melbourne - $1.20

Fremantle - $1.14
North Melbourne - $5.75
 

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KardiniaPark said:
Nah it will be more than that, closer to 50 I would think being $1.20. I wont be going anywhere near that game no matter what the line!
Click to expand...

identical odds to Melbourne v Brisbane where the line was -30.5.

I will be smashing dees -30.5. They'll be primed for a result before the bye. Anything leas than a 40 pt loss and Bailey will b on notice. Dees played about a qtr footy Sunday. Just need to play 2qtrs against suns to smash line.

I'll be looking at Sydney <39.5 or +15.5. Hopefully Cats come in more. Sydney are a huge chance.

I agree with the Eagles line. $1.10 too short. Without Sandi North are also a chance to cover after they wouldve been preparing for 2 weeks after a ripping!
 
I dont subscribe to the "they are primed for a good game" theory. It's like betting on St Kilda solely because they "should" win a game soon.

Betting should be on recent form and or extenuating circumstances such as Sandi not be right against North. Huge out and can definitely see Noth covering the line.

Gold Coast are improving each game and Melbourne just played a shocker against Brisbane. Maloney should be out suspended for pissing on a bar and they have to travel. GC will go into this game thinking they can win.
 

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I've got $200 to play with for my punters club this week. Tossing up what to do as we have had zero return in 2 of 3 weeks thus far.

I'll have more of an idea once i see the lines but thinking there might be some good value in taking the Swans with the points into the pies over 15.5 and the Hawks over 15.5.

What are peoples thoughts?
 
coachnoodles said:
I've got $200 to play with for my punters club this week. Tossing up what to do as we have had zero return in 2 of 3 weeks thus far.

I'll have more of an idea once i see the lines but thinking there might be some good value in taking the Swans with the points into the pies over 15.5 and the Hawks over 15.5.

What are peoples thoughts?
Click to expand...

Agree with the first 2 but not sure about the second. With the Hawks being $1.10 it wont pay much more than $1.25 for over 15.5 and IMO thats to low. West Coast do match up pretty well against the Hawks having won the last time they met when there was arguably a larger gap between the 2 sides. While I think the Hawks will win I think the odds are way to low and will probably be going West Coast with a start.
 
Lyyynnnchy said:
Agree with the first 2 but not sure about the second. With the Hawks being $1.10 it wont pay much more than $1.25 for over 15.5 and IMO thats to low. West Coast do match up pretty well against the Hawks having won the last time they met when there was arguably a larger gap between the 2 sides. While I think the Hawks will win I think the odds are way to low and will probably be going West Coast with a start.
Click to expand...

Hawks were in a form slump last year and were without Franklin playing in Subiaco.

Hawks will have their full team in (minus Stratton) and be playing in Tassie.

Hawks easily for mine.
 
Forthwrite said:
I agree.

Young teams travelling usually have a tendency to struggle a bit and I think GC are a big show to win their first game here.

Should be plenty of value to take GC with a few goals head start.
Click to expand...

+1

Remember Port's first few games (1997) when they were widely regarded as out of their depth. Game 1: walloped by Collingwood who finished 11th the year before and 10th in '97. Game 2: easily done by Essendon (finished 14th) at Footy Park. I was at that game and they were woeful after an adrenaline-fuelled 3.8.26 in the first quarter. Game 3: smashed Geelong 18.21 to 14.6 and the self-belief started. Geelong went on to miss the minor premiership by 1.7%.

(Mind you, Port missed the finals on percentage that year, which Gold Coast won't get close to ...)
 
Lyyynnnchy said:
I dont subscribe to the "they are primed for a good game" theory. It's like betting on St Kilda solely because they "should" win a game soon.

Betting should be on recent form and or extenuating circumstances such as Sandi not be right against North. Huge out and can definitely see Noth covering the line.

Gold Coast are improving each game and Melbourne just played a shocker against Brisbane. Maloney should be out suspended for pissing on a bar and they have to travel. GC will go into this game thinking they can win.
Click to expand...

Dees were good enough to etch out a win yesterday in driving rain after being 5 goals down and a had a solid second half against the flying swans to share the points.

GC improving from a 119 point smashing to a 73 point mauling.

- I doubt it will be raining at Gabba
- Home ground didn't help Suns against Blues
- The youth of today will not want to get shown up against the youth of tomorrow

To me this all points to a convincing win to the Dees even w/out the pissa which will be offset by the rubbing out of browny for 4+ weeks! 2 of the 3 will come in to created a potent forward line for Melbourne - Petterd, Maric, Newton. How far Melbourne.
 
GC might win a few games towards the end of the year but it's boys against men right now. Dees 50+ for me...our mature backline alone will wins this game. How can they score over 50? Dixon maybe will kick a few and ablett but suggesting they win is crazy talk.
 
Byejune said:
Dees were good enough to etch out a win yesterday in driving rain after being 5 goals down and a had a solid second half against the flying swans to share the points.

GC improving from a 119 point smashing to a 73 point mauling.

- I doubt it will be raining at Gabba
- Home ground didn't help Suns against Blues
- The youth of today will not want to get shown up against the youth of tomorrow

To me this all points to a convincing win to the Dees even w/out the pissa which will be offset by the rubbing out of browny for 4+ weeks! 2 of the 3 will come in to created a potent forward line for Melbourne - Petterd, Maric, Newton. How far Melbourne.
Click to expand...

I agree Melbourne will win and SHOULD by a lot. I was just pointing out that saying Melbourne are "primed for a good game" shouldnt be used as vindication for a bet.
 

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