AFL Round 4

[Sainters12]

^ Yep me too, was a minute too late though, lost track of time

 

[Moses01]

Been a lean year thus far but this round has more than made up for it!

EDIT: wait, half odds? It was a 3 way?

Doh, you're right, my bad. Still good.

 

[tupperware]

Clark subbed off with 1.2 goals to sum up a rubbish weekend of punting for me

 

[Prudster]

Thank god for Dahlhaus. My line was -20.5 and he kicked a point to put the margin to 21 with less than 30 seconds left. At least a couple of bets came through in a generally crap weekend.

 

[Lensen]

Best. Round. Ever.

 

[Cuzz09]

The line was +20.5

How many people got stuffed up by that late Dalhaus point

 

[HurlsMeister18]

Nice round for me, Essendon winning was a bonus, the only bad for me which wrecked a few multi's was Gold Coast getting pantsed , Didn't pick the freo win but had them at the line and picked every other winner. 4 from 4 for profit so far and looking fwd to rd 5.

 

[vicco]

The line was +20.5

How many people got stuffed up by that late Dalhaus point

I did. More bets lost this round by a couple of points. Thank god the game total was under 180 or it would have been a nightmare round.

 

[StringyDog]

WC HH

Hi-low - WC/Carl/Geel-GWS/Melb/NM

SC Hoping it's a congetsed game and not one for the forwards -Barlow v Pavlich, Hayes v Riewoldt, Sandilands v Dal Santo

DT Kennedy v Swallow 1.85
SC
Bolton v O'Keefe 1.97
Foley v Martin 1.9
Cross v Trengove 1.77

Very nice weekend, loving the SC/DT HH's at moment, have hit 16 of 17 in past 3 rounds

 

[laam]

bets so far
2u carlton-37.5 @ 1.91
1u freo @ 3.15
2u brisbane-20.5 @ 2
1u geelong-31.5 @ 1.92
3u m johnson over fisher in DT @ 2.2
2u k cornes >87.5 in DT @ 1.8
2u dangerfield <2 goals DNB @ 1.87
1.5u west coast win @ 1.68

LOSS
WIN
WIN
LOSS
WIN
WIN
WIN
WIN
Round 4 +9.11u
YTD +19.54u

 

[eastcoastcrow]

LOSS
WIN
WIN
LOSS
WIN
WIN
WIN
WIN
Round 4 +9.11u
YTD +19.54u

2 unlucky losses in that.

The blues before the game IMO would have covered that easily.

The Cats I dont think are the same team as they were in the finals. With that said I think they view the season as a marathon, and getting to a Top 4 finish is what they are all about.

 

[laam]

blues was hardly unlucky, they got smashed
Geelong starting very slowly it seems. at least we got the win
Still cant complain

 

[Duritz]

blues was hardly unlucky, they got smashed
Geelong starting very slowly it seems. at least we got the win
Still cant complain

The Blues were lucky to get as close as they did. Essendon were vastly superior on the day.

 

[yamahamoto]

Crameri should have got at least 8....

 

[Duritz]

Crameri should have got at least 8....

Yeah kicked shithouse, didn't he.

 

[eastcoastcrow]

blues was hardly unlucky, they got smashed
Geelong starting very slowly it seems. at least we got the win
Still cant complain

Well the Blues went in as raging favs.

Had a couple of early injuries and by the admission of a couple of players were about 10% of their game.

To be honest, I am glad I lost all my multi's because I had the Blue in all of them. I learnt a good lesson on Saturday.

There is no certainty in our game, lose a few players to injury before and during a game and have players of their game by 10% and your bet looks very shaky.

Carltons loss gave me an important reality check in re: betting.

I did go chasing my losses that night, which arguably is the worst thing to do. Things panned out nicely in the end. But I regretted having to go down that path.

Nevertheless fierce rivalries need to be respected a lot more by me as a punter, I did not care or bother to invest the time to look at the Dons Blues match.

 

[laam]

True, but at least you learnt from it, dont have all the eggs in one basket and dont chase losses, well you would have learnt that better had the chase lost
Eventually I learned the lesson of no multies and no short odds as they just arent worth it. It's very rare that I back anything less than $1.7

 

[carn tigez]

True, but at least you learnt from it, dont have all the eggs in one basket and dont chase losses, well you would have learnt that better had the chase lost
Eventually I learned the lesson of no multies and no short odds as they just arent worth it. It's very rare that I back anything less than $1.7

Multis have been profitable in the long term for me. But mainly backing things at low odds that I see as very strong chances, to bump total odds to $2-$3 instead of backing them individually at 1.30 - 1.50.

And I never multi more than 3 results together (other than special exotics like trying to pick each winner in the AFL round).

 

[tupperware]

 

[Lensen]

This week restored my faith in favourites not winning - hope it continues

 

[KP78]

That was one shocking week, I don't think much could have gone worse (taking WC -5.5 was the real stinger) for me but happy to hear others got some cash from the books!

Rd 4: -3.319U

Season Total: + 7.825U

Onto Rd 5 and hoping for better things!

 

[carn tigez]

Nope, I multied Essendon at +55.5 line. I don't see low odds inclusions as safe and load up, I see them as better than the 33% chance $3 odds suggest or the 50% chance the $2 odds suggest.

No different to backing a team to win at odds of $2 or $3.