AFL Round 6

[Duritz]

Thanks.

On a similar note, I'd be interested to know if many of you are taking the Dogs now? I see they're at $3.50 to win.

My maths has teams leading by 1-6 at 3/4 time winning about 59% of the time. That would mean the Pies should be at about $1.67 (Currently at $1.28) and the Dogs should be at around $2.40 (Currently at $3.50).

Slight value with the dogs, right?

This will sound crap, because you won tonight and I lost... but you need to define it more than just "sides leading by 1-6"... pies leading by 1-6 against the dogs, for eg, is diff from the dogs leading by 1-6 against the pies.

Take the stats you have, and further break them down by beginning of game market expectation... you can break that down into about 6 groups or so to make the stats more relevant, then you have something.

Well done tonight.

 

[Jimmy_the_Gent]

This will sound crap, because you won tonight and I lost... but you need to define it more than just "sides leading by 1-6"... pies leading by 1-6 against the dogs, for eg, is diff from the dogs leading by 1-6 against the pies.

Take the stats you have, and further break them down by beginning of game market expectation... you can break that down into about 6 groups or so to make the stats more relevant, then you have something.

Well done tonight.

Appreciate the feedback very much.

 

[Gift]

Thanks.

On a similar note, I'd be interested to know if many of you are taking the Dogs now? I see they're at $3.50 to win.

My maths has teams leading by 1-6 at 3/4 time winning about 59% of the time. That would mean the Pies should be at about $1.67 (Currently at $1.28) and the Dogs should be at around $2.40 (Currently at $3.50).

Slight value with the dogs, right?

There is never any value in backing shit teams to win. Only value would be taking large plus lines on shit teams. Reason is shit teams generally always choke at the end.

 

[Donkson]

oh ok so does that mean there is value in taking every favourite to win?

$$$

 

[Duritz]

There is never any value in backing shit teams to win. Only value would be taking large plus lines on shit teams. Reason is shit teams generally always choke at the end.

oh ok so does that mean there is value in taking every favourite to win?

$$$

Would like to see Donkson's question answered in light of the first post.

 

[Gift]

oh ok so does that mean there is value in taking every favourite to win?

$$$

Go ahead and back shit teams like Dogs, Melb, Port, GC and GWS every week then. Ull be rich $$$$$$$$$$$$$$

 

[Duritz]

Go ahead and back shit teams like Dogs, Melb, Port, GC and GWS every week then. Ull be rich $$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Are you rich?

 

[Gift]

Are you rich?

Nah Im poor. I multi every favourite each week but some reason lucks never on my side to nail every single leg Dont worry one day Ill nail them all and be richhhhhh $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

 

[Duritz]

Nah Im poor. I multi every favourite each week but some reason lucks never on my side to nail every single leg Dont worry one day Ill nail them all and be richhhhhh $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

No need to be sarcastic mate... this is the Punting Board, the purpose of the board should be self evident. Talk about punting, contribute as best you can about punting, or **** off.

 

[Gift]

No need to be sarcastic mate... this is the Punting Board, the purpose of the board should be self evident. Talk about punting, contribute as best you can about punting, or **** off.

Sorry, just a habit of posting sarcasm to smarty pants comments

Taking multi of Ess x Geel x Freo x Hawks x WCE @ 2.2

 

[5 Bucks]

Gibbs most possessions group A on Sporting @ $13
With Judd out Carlton will probably give Gibbs a game in the middle.

 

[Donkson]

Sorry, just a habit of posting sarcasm to smarty pants comments

you said there is never value in betting on shit teams to win, why are you mad at me for asking if the opposite is valuable?

 

[Gift]

you said there is never value in betting on shit teams to win, why are you mad at me for asking if the opposite is valuable?

Its because what you said doesnt relate to what Im saying... Whens the last time a bottom 4 quality like side ie. GWS, GC, Dogs, Port, Melb of today beats a top 4 contender when the match is close? - answer is pretty much never as its a rarity! These poorer sides 99% of the time always choke and the quality side lifts at the end and runs over the top.

You said so that means you should always back the favourite which is a completely different statement altogether. Hawks were favourite against Sydney last week for example when the match was close at half time, however difference is Sydney dont suck balls and arent a shit bottom four quality side.

End of my argument now, lets get back to posting bets

 

[Donkson]

GWS, GC, Dogs, Port, Melb

You said so that means you should always back the favourite which is a completely different statement altogether.

you said the shit teams never win (therefore the teams playing the shit teams always win).

so back them and print money right?

 

[Purrfect Pussies]

Roughead FGS @ $15, FGS Hawks @ $8

Was on fire early last week. Hoping for him to start in the square with Buddy up the ground and Hale taking the centre bounce.

adding:

Sportingbet - Fantasy

1 unit - Barlow @ $2.50 v Muzugu v Pearce

2 units - Crameri @ $1.85 v J Brown

2 units - Essendon -11.5/Geelong -27.5/Fremantle - 19.5 @ $2

 

[sneak]

whats peoples thoughts on gold coast tonight at the line or head to head

 

[Big Fozza]

i would like to get ppls thoughts on my bets.

$50 for freo into geelong into saints.

did something i never do and $10 for duncan fgs into milne fgs for a return of $1530

???? feedback appreciated

 

[Big Fozza]

whats peoples thoughts on gold coast tonight at the line or head to head

might be some value at the line

h2h i think is dead money even with no sandi or fyfe. freo will just kick too many goals

 

[Duritz]

whats peoples thoughts on gold coast tonight at the line or head to head

I like freo at the line but I'm 0 from 1ast night after thinking the pies were good things the line, so don't listen to me!!

 

[Falcons]

One Bet for the round so far

Collingwood
Hawthorn
Fremantle
Essendon

$150 @ $1.97

Second Bet

Collingwood -15.5
Fremantle
Port +40.5
Adelaide +58.5
North +60.5

$150 @ $2

One of the multis will be finished up with a nice return tonight hopefully

Then have to wait for the dreaded last leg on Sunday

 

[eastcoastcrow]

One of the multis will be finished up with a nice return tonight hopefully

Then have to wait for the dreaded last leg on Sunday

Without giving you the kiss of death, those two multi's are good!

 

[KardiniaPark]

Jesus, you backed a $1.10 chance it really doesn't need to be bumped after one leg.

 

[Falcons]

Jesus, you backed a $1.10 chance it really doesn't need to be bumped after one leg.

Oh im sorry

 

[Falcons]

Without giving you the kiss of death, those two multi's are good!

Oh dear lol

thanks mate haha

 

[The_Big_Ship]

i would like to get ppls thoughts on my bets.

$50 for freo into geelong into saints.

did something i never do and $10 for duncan fgs into milne fgs for a return of $1530

???? feedback appreciated

Good to see someone else that likes the Saints.