AFL Round 6

[Butler]

Shouldn't give people much confidence in St Kilda then, got pushed by them..

Maybe, maybe not. It's not unusual for a side like StKilda to have an off day against a lower side. It's also not unusual for a winless side to put up a big effort before fading away late. On overall form this season it's hard to back Melbourne in at the line yet alone h2h.

Plus, Geelong 233 defeated Melbourne 47 sticks in the mind a fair bit. Although, Selwood was BOG in that match and is likely to be rubbed out.

 

[Lensen]

Melbourne are improving each week. They are getting players back like Sylvia and Grimes. Clark should be back and hopefully Frawley plays too.

They will be very aware of last year and keen to put in a solid performance. The pressure will be right off them, the media has moved on to other topics. The renovations seems to have upset Geelong's dominance at home.

Geelong hasn't started a season this poorly since 2006 or something. Selwood will very likely be out, Kelly might still be out, etc.

Geelong big favourites, sure, but $15 is too much.

they're going to need to improve an enormous amount in a week to go from narrow loss to the rubbish saints (wins v GC & WB) at home to defeating geelong away

 

[twarby]

Saints are no good outdoors, has nothing to do with Melbourne being good.

Sylvia was the sub too so no point saying he played apart in them being close on the weekend

 

[PIESPREMIERS2010]

Most value I can see at the moment is Essendon at the line. Essendon are a top 8 side this year and Brisbane far from it. Brisbane will win a few games at home, but very few away from it.

-29.5 in Melbourne looks too easy for Essendon, especially at Etihad where they can move the ball quickly.

2U x Essendon Line -29.5 @1.91

 

[Butler]

Hawks -22.5 looks the goods early. Hawthorn coming off a bad loss with Franklin, Mitchell etc all quiet in. Can see them coming out fired up for this one. According to the AFL website they held a player only meeting today which to me looks like they are really disappointed in their performance. Not sure about Gibsons injury but they will need him.

 

[Thedeftouch]

My leans:

Collingwood -40.5
Brisbane +30.5
Geelong -60.5
Gold Coast +40.5
St Kilda +25.5
Port Adelaide +4.5

Swans line looks dead on, imo.

Carlton should be -90ish.

 

[infinity303]

Early thoughts


Adel +39.5
Ess
GC +39.5
WC
Hawks -25.5

@ $7.31


I'm expecting a close low scoring game between adel and syd.

I also can't see Freo winning by too much. I think they will struggle to put GC away and GC will put up another valiant loss.

Hawks coming off a disappointing loss too good for a Saints team. Someone please man up on Lenny.

 

[Barnzy]

Richmond $1.75. Yes please.

 

[Cuzz09]

North Melbourne +29.5 is a very good bet.

Schofield out is a big loss for us with Norths talls and the possibility of no Mitch Brown either.

Plus North will bring in Goldstein no doubt.

Think we should win but it'll be close.

North v Eagles games are normally fairly close.

West Coast by 11 points

 

[Cuzz09]

Bulldogs line +40.5 $1.92
Essendon line -30.5 $1.92
Adelaide line +25.5 $1.92
Port Adelaide 1-39 $2.65
North Melbourne line +29.5 $1.92

$36 odds "Delicious"

Chuck the cats in there too -60.5 $1.92

$69.10 odds

 

[Dr Awkward]

I like a few of the lines this week.

Gold Coast to cover
Melbourne to cover
Adelaide to cover

Richmond should be a bit shorter but probably no bet there.

 

[steveo898]

I am a newbie to betting and I use Betstar (Is that a good company?)

I like doing multi's but I have no idea how some of the odds people post on here are possible? example $30

The best I can get is $5 & thats if I multi the hell out of it lol

I know I am confused & misreading it, so can someone explain to me how it works?

Thanks!

 

[Purrfect Pussies]

I am a newbie to betting and I use Betstar (Is that a good company?)

I like doing multi's but I have no idea how some of the odds people post on here are possible? example $30

The best I can get is $5 & thats if I multi the hell out of it lol

I know I am confused & misreading it, so can someone explain to me how it works?

Thanks!

Collingwood -40.5 @ $1.91
Geelong -60.5 @ $1.91
Fremantle -40.5 @ $1.91

All 3 teams start with a points handicap. Pies and Dockers need to win by at least 41 points, Cats 61.

To multi them together (all 3 bets need to win), simply multiply the odds

$1.91 x $1.91 x $1.91 = $6.96

 

[Sainters12]

YES Buggy

Hopefully they have the same market this week.

 

[kaiserchief13]

Bulldogs line +40.5 $1.92
Essendon line -30.5 $1.92
Adelaide line +25.5 $1.92
Port Adelaide 1-39 $2.65
North Melbourne line +29.5 $1.92

$36 odds "Delicious"

Chuck the cats in there too -60.5 $1.92

$69.10 odds

Dogs will get thumped. They are rubbish. Richmond will win easily vs Port.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Dogs will get thumped. They are rubbish. Richmond will win easily vs Port.

Tip rank: 719

 

[Bullfrog5]

Richmond -4.5 looks very good indeed. They absolutely took it to West Coast last weekend and will be burning to prove themselves against a lesser ranked team after a few "almost" results against higher ranked ones. Mostly sunny conditions predicted for Adelaide this weekend, so clean footy for the Tigers midfield should see them post a winning score well in excess of a goal.

 

[kaiserchief13]

Tip rank: 719

Missed the first round.....

 

[KardiniaPark]

Richmond -4.5 looks very good indeed. They absolutely took it to West Coast last weekend and will be burning to prove themselves against a lesser ranked team after a few "almost" results against higher ranked ones. Mostly sunny conditions predicted for Adelaide this weekend, so clean footy for the Tigers midfield should see them post a winning score well in excess of a goal.

I just cant get my head around Richmond playing interstate as favourite. No matter how many honourable losses they have had, the fact remains that they have lost 4 games and beaten a pathetic Melbourne. It's hardly inspiring, if you match them up together I don't see how you could say they have been any better than Port, in fact I would argue the opposite.

Port have beaten the Saints and seriously pushed Essendon (debatable...lots more scoring shots but were still in it for a long way) Sydney & Adelaide. They were blown away by Collingwood in 20 minutes but showed enough to fight back and get it under 4 goals in the end. They aren't playing a team anywhere near the calibre of those mentioned.

The tigers may come out and blow them away. I really hope they do but as far as a betting proposition...I think it would be madness to have any confidence in the game.

 

[Bullfrog5]

I just cant get my head around Richmond playing interstate as favourite. No matter how many honourable losses they have had, the fact remains that they have lost 4 games and beaten a pathetic Melbourne. It's hardly inspiring, if you match them up together I don't see how you could say they have been any better than Port, in fact I would argue the opposite.

Port have beaten the Saints and seriously pushed Essendon (debatable...lots more scoring shots but were still in it for a long way) Sydney & Adelaide. They were blown away by Collingwood in 20 minutes but showed enough to fight back and get it under 4 goals in the end. They aren't playing a team anywhere near the calibre of those mentioned.

The tigers may come out and blow them away. I really hope they do but as far as a betting proposition...I think it would be madness to have any confidence in the game.

My take on it is Richmond is brimming with hunger and frustration at their close losses. All of Port, Adelaide, St.Kilda have been unconvincing. St Kilda smashed easybeats (including Dogs) early in the season, but losing to Port and Freo (@Etihad) indicates they are not much chop. Saints only beat Dees by 18 points last week.

Richmond, apart from an 8 goal loss to Carlton in R1 have run Pies to 20 points, Cats and Eagles to 10 points, while flogging the Dees by 10 goals.

Port this week is a big chance for the Tigers to make a statement on the road. One I believe they will take.

 

[iluvparis]

Agree with bullfrog - on paper, the Tigers form is far far superior to that of the Port given the teams each side has played.

The only thing that gives Port a chance here is that the game is in Adelaide.

 

[doddy87]

From first glance I really like Melbourne +60.5
Might have turned a corner against St Kilda altho worse opposition

Dont think its the Geelong of old they are not really destroying teams

 

[Selective Retention]

Tip rank: 719

Tipping does not equal punting.

My tipping has been woeful this year but I only bet in a couple of games a week and going ok.

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

Jumping on a few options in the 'Rnd 5 Rising Star Nomination' market.

I have factored in the opposition teams when selecting players, thus with the GWS facing the Dogs I expect them to put up a decent fight. If they do as expected i'm quietly confident another one of the top GWS youngsters will get the nom this round. Of the others, I have been impressed by Motlop's performances over the past few weeks and is due for a nomination. If he puts in another solid game - which I expect him to against the Lions - he'll be close to a lock in.

Spewing that the TAB trimmed Bugg's odds from $21 to $17 as I was placing my bets. Bastards!

Motlop $11
Shiel @ $17
Bugg $17
Green $21
Coniglio $26
Treloar $34

CHA-CHING!! Good work Dune Buggy!

 

[Butler]

Kennedy out for 12 weeks. North a big chance. No Kennedy, Lecras, Nicoski, Embley and Schofield. Mitch Brown also apparently out who would have been an option forward or back. Plus the North/Eagles games have been close of late.