Afl - round 7

[jpower]

also resist the temptation of including the NM line in all multis.

 

[DerpWerls]

2.75 u North -17.5 ($1.91)

1.1 u North -21.5 x Richmond -5.5 ($4.43)

Interested to hear some thoughts on under/over totals, I haven't bothered to check but it feels like there have been a lot of low scoring games.

 

[feZZa93]

And having ducked into your thread and seen you're in similar form, maybe it's a sign!

You had to 'duck' into the thread didn't you Casson

 

[carn tigez]

Can someone explain to me why North are such good value? I don't see it.

For me it's because they are shit team bullies. Been playing well vs good teams as well this year so the consistency is there.

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

It's been a terrible round for me unfortunately. Lucky I have the Round 6 Rising Star Market still on ice...

$28 Steven Motlop $8
$22 John Butcher @ $11
$10 Kane Lucas @ $11
$14 Toby Greene @ $15

The rising star was my saving grace last week, and hopefully Motlop or Greene can come through with the goods this week, to help me post a profit for the round.

BANG!

Have been successful in this market 2 weeks running, let's hope I can make it 3.

 

[Borgsta]

thinking that the Dogs style of play will hurt North's handball happy style. I wouldn't be surprised to see an exact replica of the Pies match, Dogs close all game but bit of extra class closes it out in the 4th. Leaving it alone bar playing TT under for Dogs.

 

[Sainters12]

BANG!

Have been successful in this market 2 weeks running, let's hope I can make it 3.

Same as me.

Gotta be Greene this week if he has a half decent game!
Polec a chance too.

 

[Djcjdees]

Maybe watch some of those games they couldnt beat Melbourne in before outlaying too much I've turned! I like the tigers (@$2+)

Pretty sure you said that 2 posts ago bud. We get it

 

[Squall]

Adelaide under 39.5
Sydney under 39.5
Essendon under 39.5
Carlton win

@ $23.88

 

[stuziman]

Same as me.

Gotta be Greene this week if he has a half decent game!
Polec a chance too.

I'll be on Greene & Shiel if they open it

Seems to be if no one has a massive stand out game like Cameron's 5 goals, they just give it to the person who deserves it for overall performance.

 

[Brave Sir Robin]

You had to 'duck' into the thread didn't you Casson

Quack quack

 

[Piss Poor]

Hawthorn over 39
Geelong under 39
Essendon win
Richmond win
Gold coast 15+
Kangaroos 15 +
Carlton 15+
Freo 15+
Collingwood 15+

$10 return $700

Also did the exact same bet but change Geelong with Adelaide

 

[Brave Sir Robin]

Hawthorn over 39
Geelong under 39
Essendon win
Richmond win
Gold coast 15+
Kangaroos 15 +
Carlton 15+
Freo 15+
Collingwood 15+

$10 return $700

Also did the exact same bet but change Geelong with Adelaide

You're better off leaving the Geel/Adel game out and having $20 instead of $10.

 

[Lensen]

You're better off leaving the Geel/Adel game out and having $20 instead of $10.

not if both under 39.5 options are >$2. Would be better to include "any side under 39.5" and make the bet $20 but may not yet be available

 

[Bullfrog5]

HAHA lol at the Sportsbet AFL special this week. It's called the Liz Hurley special:
"What St Kilda merchandise will Liz Hurley wear to the St Kilda v Carlton game on Monday night. Must be seen on TV."

What kind of a special is that?!

Seems open to Warney letting his mates know what she'll wear. Take the long shots.

 

[L_W_P]

Essendon minus 8.5 points.
North minus 21.5 points
Adelaide under 39.5
Sydney under 24.5
Hawks by 60+
GWS to win
New Jersey to win in the NHL today (Up 2-1 at the end of the first period and leading the series 3-1)

$10 will return $6800. Not a typo - $6800.

Fingers crossed haha

 

[Duritz]

The SA media is right into Primus, and the players seem to be right behind him... IF they are right behind him, then guaranteed they will come out fired up BIG TIME this week, to prove the sensationalist SA tabloids wrong.

They might be the bet of the year to cover the line.

 

[Bullfrog5]

If North play to their potential, they should cover the -17.5 line vs the Dogs. I will be putting 1U on it.

Another I quite like is GWS +15.5 vs Gold Coast in Canberra. As long as there is no Ablett, the return of Cameron will be big for the Giants and their ability to win contested ball (as evidenced vs Carlton) will give him plenty of opportunities.

Also the forecast is for a max temp of 14 degrees, but having grown up in Canberra, I know it will be even chillier for the Suns as the shadows lengthen in the afternoon. The Giants will be better used to the Canberra conditions, many having played there last year in the state league comp, whereas the Suns will likely freeze their **** off.

 

[Bullfrog5]

If North play to their potential, they should cover the -17.5 line vs the Dogs. I will be putting 1U on it.

Another I quite like is GWS +15.5 vs Gold Coast in Canberra. As long as there is no Ablett, the return of Cameron will be big for the Giants and their ability to win contested ball (as evidenced vs Carlton) will give him plenty of opportunities.

Also the forecast is for a max temp of 14 degrees, but having grown up in Canberra, I know it will be even chillier for the Suns as the shadows lengthen in the afternoon. The Giants will be better used to the Canberra conditions, many having played there last year in the state league comp, whereas the Suns will likely freeze their **** off.

Just checked the weather. New Canberra forecast is 12 degrees. Suns to get hypothermia. GWS a chance H2H even.

 

[Sunny_]

Ablett will play at this stage. Trained quite well with the team today. Would expect him to play more on the wings or up forward though.

 

[Bullfrog5]

Ablett will play at this stage. Trained quite well with the team today. Would expect him to play more on the wings or up forward though.

Bummer. He'll be okay in the cold after being at the Cats. Some of the worst conditions I've ever seen have been at Kardinia.

 

[The Big Woofer]

The SA media is right into Primus, and the players seem to be right behind him... IF they are right behind him, then guaranteed they will come out fired up BIG TIME this week, to prove the sensationalist SA tabloids wrong.

They might be the bet of the year to cover the line.

If those Port players are behind Primus then they are a long, long way behind him! Its not about what they say its about how they try, no way these guys are buying what Primus is selling right now, i see them now starting to lose games by 10-15 goals & it will get real ugly.

 

[iluvparis]

Exactly - isn't this the same mob his own coach admits they have no heart?

 

[Grimmjow]

Just checked the weather. New Canberra forecast is 12 degrees. Suns to get hypothermia. GWS a chance H2H even.

Humidity and rain can have an effect on the game. 12 degrees would hardly affect anyone, players warm up pre-game and stay warm during the game. GC have shown much more then GWS over the past two weeks, GWS can barely kick a score >70.

Still early, but forecasted showers in Adelaide and Melbourne on saturday - expecting a <40 margin either way for ADE/GEE and RICH/SYD. Did lean towards ADE, but seeing it may be wet, Tippett/Walker may be nullified and GEE do play well in the wet (vs BRIS)

 

[X_box_X]

I have turned an $85 bonus bet into $488.75 through Sportingbet. When I went to withdraw the money, it said transaction completed. But now the balance is still in my SB account. Terms and conditions state the winnings have to be turned over (x1) first.

So does this mean I can simply put the whole lot on something paying $1.01? Would it be wiser to have three or four separate bets at odds of $1.01-$1.10 to ensure you at least get something back? I'd hate to put the whole lot on something I think is a sure thing, only for a massive upset to occur.

What have others done in a similar circumstance? Would appreciate advice.