AFL Round 9

[infinity303]

Yep, did you watch Saints v Blues?

They have played shithouse all year the Saints and I do not rate them but that game shows how good they can be and they are on the up. Don't read that as the Saints will dominate from now on cos I think the Tiges can beat them next week, but being at home, at the dome and after a pretty big win last time they were there, its enough for me to back them.

You been watching Sydney? They beat Adel at home just, got dominated by us then beat a soft Melbourne at home. Nothing too get excited about.

Saints will win. <39 @ 2.60. I'll take that.

You been watching sydney? They lost to Adelaide at home just.

I like the either team < 40 bet in this game. I think sydney should win given saints tough back to back 6 day break and coming back from perth.

I think Gold coast are the biggest value of the round. I'll take them at the line. Even if Port sneak home it won't be by any significant margin they will really struggle to put any team away this year let alone win. So I think GC +24.5 will be plenty of cover in this game.

What do people expect the WC v Freo game total to be? With Lyon now the coach and it being a derby I can't see it being very high scoring....

 

[X_box_X]

You been watching sydney? They lost to Adelaide at home just.

I like the either team < 40 bet in this game. I think sydney should win given saints tough back to back 6 day break and coming back from perth.

I think Gold coast are the biggest value of the round. I'll take them at the line. Even if Port sneak home it won't be by any significant margin they will really struggle to put any team away this year let alone win. So I think GC +24.5 will be plenty of cover in this game.

What do people expect the WC v Freo game total to be? With Lyon now the coach and it being a derby I can't see it being very high scoring....

I agree with your last point re: a lowish scoring derby.

Only thing that worries me about the Gold Coast is the trip back from Darwin, otherwise I'll be all over them.

 

[Schnapper]

Re: AFL Round 9 - Best bet with explanation

Load Up:
Adelaide WIN (1.51)
Carlton -29.5 (1.30)
North Melbourne -14.5 (1.58)

3.10 (Sportsbet)

 

[Scodog10]

I'm liking the $11 for Richmond to be lowest scoring team. I think the Hawks are gaining some momentum and the wet track always helps.

 

[X_box_X]

Freo +18.5 @ $2.02 seems like very good odds.

 

[lamaros]

My bets so far:

@1.56 2U Port over GC
@3.80 1U Richmond over Hawks
@2.22 1U Geelong -32.5 over WB
@3.35 1U Fremantle over WC
@1.97 1U Adelaide -13.5 over Collingwood

 

[Lensen]

Like a crack addict, I can't give up the Most Goals completely. Just not blindly following the spreadsheet anymore.

Really like O'Keefe @ $26 (Centrebet) vs St Kilda. Will probably one where 3 will get a share of it, and he kicked 4 in the final at the same venue against them last year.

Also Blair @ $26 (Sportsbet) vs Adelaide. Has kicked 6 goals in two games at AAMI Stadium (albeit both against Port), and with no T.Walker it's a bit more open as to who will get up. Not sure I like Tippett in the dew.

 

[Sainters12]

Like a crack addict, I can't give up the Most Goals completely. Just not blindly following the spreadsheet anymore.

Really like O'Keefe @ $26 (Centrebet) vs St Kilda. Will probably one where 3 will get a share of it, and he kicked 4 in the final at the same venue against them last year.

Dempster will blanket him, will kick 2 max. But yes, I do agree with you in saying it will most likely be shared between a couple.

 

[RBW_007]

Sportingbet has Scully vs Palmer for DT points. Think I might take Scully at $1.90

 

[Holy Foley!]

Palmer's not playing.


Does anyone think Essendon 80-99 @ $6 is any good?

Also;

Geel <39.5
Port Adel. <39.5
St K/Syd either <15.5
North H2H
WC H2h
@ $18

cheers

 

[Terror Time]

bulldogs +29.5
adelaide -12.5
west coast -17.5
essendon first to 25

6.82

bulldogs +29.5
adelaide -12.5
west coast -17.5
essendon first to 25
richmond first to 25

18.09

I'd love to know the % for Richmond reaching 25 first in the last few seasons. 70% would be my guess. If anyone works that out, email me the stat please. Always pays well too as Richmond are generally underdogs.

 

[X_box_X]

Does anyone know what TAB's promotion is today?

 

[iluvparis]

Richmond v Hawthorn
Most DT points - Deledio v Cotchin v Mitchell
Deledio @ $2.60

2012: 2-2 +0.55

 

[KardiniaPark]

I get this wrong every Friday but here goes

DT (sportingbet)
$9.18
Griffin > Boyd > Selwood
Chapman > Cross > Johnson

MGS
Duncan $21
Stokes $15
Motlop $34

 

[RBW_007]

Palmer's not playing.

So if Palmer doesn't play will they pay out on Scully?

 

[Athomas]

Been burnt early on betting early in the week but am liking:

Saints @ 2+
Bris @ 4+

And mostly:
Port @ 1.50 and at the line. I know they lost to GC last year but Port are a much improved team and GC don't look to have improved at all. Pretty confident Port will win - they will be desperate to go 2 in a row for the first time in ages.

 

[Brave Sir Robin]

So if Palmer doesn't play will they pay out on Scully?

Absolutely not.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Palmer's not playing.


Does anyone think Essendon 80-99 @ $6 is any good?

Also;

Geel <39.5
Port Adel. <39.5
St K/Syd either <15.5
North H2H
WC H2h
@ $18

cheers

Yup, that would be the range, certainly more value than the 100+. The tab only has them in 10 point margins, where is the 20pt margin at that price? (lazy)

 

[Holy Foley!]

That is with the TAB haha.

 

[The_Big_Ship]

My multi for the weekend

Geel -29.5
Rich +22.5
Port
Syd -1.5
North -24.5
Freo +17.5

@ 37.61

GL all!

 

[KardiniaPark]

That is with the TAB haha.

No the TAB is :

80-89 $7
90-99 $9

Where are you getting the $6 from

 

[KP78]

Bets for the week locked in:

Syd - 1.5 (2.5 units @ 1.90)
Adel h2h (2.5 units @ 1.51)
Carl - 51 (1.5 units @ 1.92)

Multi 1
WB + 58.5
Syd + 31.5
Adel + 18.5
Carl - 22.5

2 units @ 2.11

Multi 2
Either side by <40
GC v PA
St.K v Syd
Adel v Coll
WC v Freo

2 units @ 3.65

Happy punting everyone!

 

[Holy Foley!]

No the TAB is :

80-89 $7
90-99 $9

Where are you getting the $6 from

You're looking at the super margin. I'm looking at the margin.

Sportsbet No. 1118 Selection Essendon by 80-99 Pts Price 6.00

I hope that's clear, I couldn't be bothered with a screenshot!

 

[Lensen]

http://www.tab.com.au/Sports/Bettin...ContestDate=2012-05-26T00:00:00&MeetingType=1

4th bet type down

reading is hard

 

[vicco]

Anyone seen the unibet sign up offer? Seems like a pretty sweet deal.