Recruiting AFL Trade & Free Agency XII - 💰💰💰

[Lore]

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Spoiler: 2024 Draft Order

 

[Keystone agony]

Listening to this board has made me even greater appreciated we had Dodoro as list manager than what some are suggesting here

 

[Keystone agony]

There's very few JHF-moulds out there, but I know what you mean. Who do you have Tsatas coming in for? From the team that finished last year, the only possibility I can see is maybe Hobbs (who was the sub).

I'm not sure where the small forwards being ready to go early comes from. The Davey twins are entering their third year and can't break into the side.

Quality small forwards ie taken high

I literally listed them

Kozzie - Pick 11 (or whatever he was)
Stephenson - Pick 6 (Psuedo small)
Watson - Pick 5
Rachelle - Pick 6

They all played atleast 72% of the season year 1, most much more

Its a position that needs the least amount of physical maturation just about. The only other that challenges is a small defender

 

[ant555]

You have this very disingenuous way of arguing when you're trapped.

How many posts could I find in your posting history discussing the historical movement of Dodoro out of a decision making role to the point that all he has been recently is a contract negotiations agent?

What does it matter that we got rid of the individual if we continue to act in the same way? Don't get me wrong, Dodoro has an extremely bad read of the game and was utterly unfit to be a list boss (a snake oil salesman who would not be in the game if Kevin Sheedy wasn't who he was), and I am happy that he is finally gone, as a matter of principle, but we are not stalled in this trade period, without the flexibility to do anything, because of 1 thing Dodoro has done or failed to do. You know that. You just don't want to admit that it the people we are relying to turn this around that made the calls.

Do you really believe that Matt Rosa, first time list boss, is even in a position to turn this around? He doesn't even have the authority.

First up pull up as many posts as you want. If you do not read them properly or work out the timeline then you can not argue against them. I am not trapped. As usual you are inserting Bruno facts into the story.

1. Most of them where about him initially taken out of having final say on the draft decisions which happened under Mahony to start with. Others got to voice a view and it was signed off.

2. He was still the list manager when Scott came on board but there was a list management team at that stage and the draft at the end of 2022. He did not have total control he was a vice in the list management team. RFK was the guy who looked after the draft and ended up being the one who pushed the final draft say.

3. In 2023 Dodoro was the list manager. Even without the control of the draft. At this stage my comments where about him not having total control. Not no control. Scott had input. McPherson had input. Dodoro had input.Vozzo oversaw it. My arguments where to people saying Dodoro picked this guys or that guy where to point out that he was not running the show by himself.

4. Rosa started in September 2023. He was not involved in any in depth decisions of that trade / draft period. RFK ran the draft side of things. Scott / McPherson / Dodoro worked on the trade / FA front and any player signings during the season.. Vozzo was in the meetings. 2023 was the Parish signing season.

5. Rosa worked initially on the VFL program though the summer.

6. During the 2024 season Dodoros role was contacts. Rosa was more focused on working with the recruiting team. This is the period where I was saying Dodoro was on contracts. He was working with Scott / McPherson / Vozzo . Walsh was also in some of these meetings.

7. At some stage of this season Vozzo decided Dodoro needed to go. Maybe it was he realized some mistakes where made in 2023 or whatever else he made the decision that he had seen enough of Adrian and there was not spot for him even if Barham had been hinting he would be back doing something.

So get your timeline right if you are going to attack my opinion.

It has only ever been Mahoney took him out of complete control in 2020. He had a voice but he was not the only voice and any final decisions had to be worked through the whole group. There is actually a video of Adrian presenting the draft choices to everyone in one of the last draft meetings and Tudor questioning aspects of the players he was discussing. There is a difference between saying not having total control and saying having he is in the list management team.

Then at the end of 2023 Scoot had the final say on the players he wanted . RFK worked the draft side. Adrian gave his opinion but at that stage Rosa was set to work in 2024.

You can also pull out posts about the Parish signing and recent ones where I said Scott and Vozzo had to wear that decision. I stand by saying that Scott / McPherson / Vozzo / Dodoro where on the list management team at that stage so all are responsible. Have also said many times that Scott has a say on the players he wants and Scott and Vozzo where running the show. That does not equate to Dodoro not being involved.
The whole Parish debate is really based on an opinion. Those who do not rate him are negative about the whole thing. Those that do do not see it as an issue.

Also on the draft there was a clear shift in how we did things last year. We traded up to get one of the best KPF prospects in the draft. A guy that would have been close to the best prospect if he was in this years draft as well. They also drafted two running half back types with an eye to upgrading that spot. So they actually looked at the list and tried to plug a couple of spots.

Rosa is already on record as saying we need more running players going forward. We have been interested in Maginness. They have had interest in Stone. So what makes me think Rosa can make a difference ? well he is the bloody list manager. They hired Scott to fix the football program. He has his say on game plan and style of players that may fit but he is not running the recruiting department. Vozzo has got Rosa in as his list guy. He has Rohan O'Brien working with RFK in recruiting.

Despite people having legitimate claims to question what has changed as far as the signing of Parish and McGrath goes there have been things they have been doing that does indicate change. The problem it seems is peoples view on how long change can take and can meaningful change happen in the first 6 to 10 months under two people who did not come into the club with any in depth list analysis or where even watching us all that closely.

The fact is 2023 was spent evaluating all aspects of the clubs football program. As far as progress in any direction goes it was a othing year. The Scott era really started in October 2023. Yes he can wear the blame for saying he wanted Parish but the program he wanted to start running started at that stage. It was the FA period where he first ticked off on a few players trades. If you are not buying it then so be it but that is how it was.

How it plays out ? All I know is Rosa is now list manager. He is doing what every list manager does and is making decisions. He is not one of Scotts yes men. He was hired by Vozzo whos vision was we need to be going in another direction than the one Adrian had set up. Yes you can argue in their first year that they got a couple of the contracts wrong but that is your opinion. It is not a fact and can still play out in various ways.

 

[Keystone agony]

To get Tsatas game time onball we need to move Zerrett to half back or have injury imo

Mcgrath - Mckay - Ridley (A.Roberts)
Redman - Reid - Zerrett

Duursma - Parish - El Hawli (Perkins)
Bryan - Durham - Caldwell (Tsatas)

N.Martin - H.Jones - Gresham
Langford - Caddy - Kako (Draper)

or

Mcgrath - Mckay - Ridley (A.Roberts/El Hawli)
Redman - Reid - Zerrett

Duursma - Parish - N.Martin (Perkins)
Bryan - Durham - Caldwell (Tsatas)

Hobbs/Davey - H.Jones - Gresham
Langford - Caddy - Kako (Draper)


PICK 9** (Could play anywhere pending who it is)


Personally i want to see Martin in a roam as he pleases Half Fwd role

 

[JayJ20]

You do realise 2MP has to want to leave right?

Of course. Which is why I said: "Would you be open" and "Melbourne has a best 22 place for you."

 

[Keystone agony]

Of course. Which is why I said: "Would you be open" and "Melbourne has a best 22 place for you."

Yeh sorry clearly missed that part

But him and his management have already said not interested in a move

 

[JayJ20]

Yeh sorry clearly missed that part

But him and his management have already said not interested in a move

Can't hurt to try and approach Melbourne anyway.

 

[Keystone agony]

Can't hurt to try and approach Melbourne anyway.

Pointless approaching them if he just doesnt want to move

Have to approach 2MP first or tell him that hes not in our plans and will play VFL to try disgruntle him to a move

 

[jdstorm]

There's very few JHF-moulds out there, but I know what you mean. Who do you have Tsatas coming in for? From the team that finished last year, the only possibility I can see is maybe Hobbs (who was the sub).

I'm not sure where the small forwards being ready to go early comes from. The Davey twins are entering their third year and can't break into the side.

In terms of team building I look at it like this

7 defenders
5 mids
3 wings
3 front half talls (Ruck, R/F and FF)
2 midsize forwards(/mids)
3 pressure forwards.

of the mids I think you ideally want 3 bigger ones. Then you can get away with 2 smaller ones.

How this all plays out next year with the smalls I think is hard to know as things will be very competitive and will depend on what players can play other positions.

But I’d expect the mids to be
Durham Tsatas Merrett, Caldwell and ?????

Backline (McKay Reid Ridley Redman McGrath Roberts Cox) seems relatively settled as do Wings (Martin, Dursma, Jones)

So I don’t think they get changed much unless someone else beats an incumbent out for their spot straight up or there are injuries.

Forward line seems unsettled. Still lots to play out.

 

[bombreys]

His form/ability wasnt good enough

He only got a game due to injury

You cant say your comparing apples to apples with Kako and another small forward in the last 2 years for us that was a top 15 pick

Davey a lesser rated small forward even played 10 games, surely that is a better comparison?

That's simply untrue.

In Round 1 of the VFL season he was named our best player with 25 disposals, 6 marks and a goal.

Both the Davey boys are a fine comparison - but one has played 20 games in 2 years (a handful as sub) and the other hasn't debuted.

 

[Call Me Cake]

The entire lure of Kako is that he was a potential free hit. The top 10 is mids/KPP territory and it's really strong this year. We wouldn't use #9 on Kako so St Kilda bidding with the risk that they'll end up with him over the talent for #8 in that range is silly, just call their bluff and go along as initially planned.

 

[bombreys]

In terms of team building I look at it like this

7 defenders
5 mids
3 wings
3 front half talls (Ruck, R/F and FF)
2 midsize forwards(/mids)
3 pressure forwards.

of the mids I think you ideally want 3 bigger ones. Then you can get away with 2 smaller ones.

How this all plays out next year with the smalls I think is hard to know as things will be very competitive and will depend on what players can play other positions.

But I’d expect the mids to be
Durham Tsatas Merrett, Caldwell and ?????

I agree with pretty much everything you've said there - just with the mids, who you've suggested is who I'd like. But I can't see Tsatas jumping ahead of Parish and/or Shiel. I think we're largely on the same page there though.

 

[BrunoV]

This a temper tantrum of Dodorro levels with the same incompetence.

trading a whole bunch of players for unders because the list doesn’t function is just…..

On top of that what feels like a vindictive need to throw away people you don’t like… ugh

It is not obvious that this post is serious. But I assume it is.

For a start, why do you assume I am angry? I don't expect that people have read my posts and care enough to be able to summarise what I think but I doubt there is one surprise there (to anyone who does read). I also just assume that you're projecting the way you think about things on to me. There is not one 'person' I don't like, I don't know any of them. There are a number of players I do not rate and would get rid of as a priority. Heppell, for example, is someone I understand to be a really decent guy, but he sucks arse as a player. I would have traded him in his AA year, you can look that one up, and then it would be the destination club's fans would then be looking back on his career trying to understand how a good player's prime years ended at 23 in the absence of a single serious injury).

Then there is trading players 'just because the list doesn't function'? The list doesn't function because of the players, no? It's not like we can upload a software update.

'Unders' is also an interesting concept. There is no doubt that we would not get anything like the value we spent on a lot of those player. But you talk about it like cyclical economic factors hit and that the share price will bounce back. What your comment really is is an acknowledgment of how average the players are. You've accepted that we'd have to accept well under the value we paid to get rid of them. What does that really say about the players, that they are good and that we should be playing them?

When you break it down, as is the case with most things, it is no where near as extreme as it looks.

Look at Hobbs, as the first example. He's a slow hardball specialist who is on the small side and who is not a good endurance athlete. His kicking is average and he is 3 years in the system and hasn't even clearly showed that his best inside trick, initiating body contact when in possession of the ball, even works at AFL level. There is a clear warning sign there because it should be obvious that his best trick can translate to AFL level by now.

There are 2 spots in a team, at most, for slow inside mids and most teams have guys who are much more destructive (Cripps would be the extreme version). Look at the way Brodie can't get a game for his second team, a former pick 8, with a full season averaging pretty close to 30 a week. What did Brodie get traded for? Or look at the way one of Parker and Adams was squeezed from Sydney's team this season.

As for Tsatas, there is no evidence that players with his level of kicking deficiency ever really improve. His kicking deficiency is closer to Dylan Clark than it is Jobe, for example. We know that because Jobe could hit them 60m, not struggle to kick the ball 40m. Tsatas was considered worthy of pick 5 (or whatever pick we used on him) because of his ability to spread from the contest, a Rozee-like player who was perhaps a little stronger inside than Rozee. Who needs a running player that can't kick? I hear and read a lot about Tsatas' size. My point of comparison for Tsatas' is Laverde and Langford who could bully VFL players in their second years, Laverde in particular. Tastas can barley free himself to do anything with the ball inside. Tsatas the first touch inside AFL player is a fantasy at this stgae. You'd spent 3 more seasons trying to work out if he is AFL standard. His value will well and truly have tanked by then.

As for Martin, I wouldn't need him and could trade him for value. I think we also need to read between the lines a bit with Martin. Moved to the one place where his front running would not expose the team and all we really got from it was to rob ourselves of Redman's ball use which is infinitely better than Martin's. Give me Laverde in the defensive role occupied by Redman and Redman in Martin's role at half back any time. I'd also have D'Ambrosio, a player who actually hits targets, plus what is very likely a first round pick because Martin is a very well regarded player.

What else is even controversial? We have 1 best 22 player and 2 fringe players. Parish? No one even wants him, so the flaw in my position is assuming I can get anything for him. Doesn't say much about the player, though, does it? What's the argument for playing a player the rest of the competition thinks so little of?

 

[Zach Package]

We may have that same opportunity but with a look to see if Kako is bid on or not

Also you always give more for the current by trading the future, because you can keep doing that over and over again if there is a willing party

Plus pick 9 is a great range, we could well be getting someone in our top 3-5 order at that range (Smilie, Murphy Reid, Armstrong)

I am clearly more ‘bird in the hand’ than some around here. In theory that all sounds swell provided it pans out like that.

In practise I’m more in favour of doing your work early and then getting on to other things. Harry Sharp sounds locked into Melbourne, we could have been in that conversation, Richmond have a ton of selections so I reckon we should be talking to them, Suns also very active and I’d be talking to them as well.

We could then pivot full attention to getting max return out of Stringer, whether that means talking to GWS about paying his salary in full or attaching one of our picks to get something back in return. Apparently we’ve spoken to Konstanty as well so if the door is even slightly open at the Swans there is a conversation there too.

 

[brutus76]

The Lions got a decent haul for 20 from the Tigers

If we hold our cards we can get plenty for 9

like:
21,37,53 and 56 from GWS
18,30 and 67 from Freo (giving them 9,10,11)
or get F1 from Melbourne
or go into a draft deficit if need be and get delisted F/A, ROOKIE and PRE SEASON DRAFTS

 

[BrunoV]

Tasatas is a year 3 top 5 pick.

The only reason he didn’t get a bigger opportunity last year was because he couldn’t physically play inside mid and that’s the only position he can play. This issue was worsened by our other mids being small and offering no physical protection.

Physically after this offseason his body will hopefully be pretty close to that of a JHF type player from this past season. He’s (Tsatas) has had a cracking year in the VFL and Given the lack of physicality in our midfield I’d say he’s the first picked or 2nd after Durham and others are fighting for scraps.

It’s hard to know what our mix looks like due to potential trades happening. But that’s where I suspect they are planning for things to go.

As far as Scott vs Rookies.
I think context is important.

Others have covered the position thing and how SFs are normally ready to go vs other positions. I’ll add that we are trading away a player to create a best 22 opportunity in the forward line for a player to take. Given the other SFs on the list and Kako’s reputation it would be very surprising if he didn’t get an opportunity and do well with it

Absolute Fantasy to think of Tsatas as anything like Horne Francis. Horne Francis could bully SANFL players as a 17 year old.

That sort of physicality does not develop, it is innate. Pretty close to Horne Francis is still elite.

A realistic target for Tsatas would be Caldwell.

 

[JayJ20]

Another option:

Ask Draper if he is committing to a contract extension now. If he isn't and is thinking about a possible move to SA next year, then do it now.

Adelaide out: 4 and F1,
Essendon out: 9 , Draper and F2

Given the depth of this year's draft, Adelaide still have a top 10 pick, an F1 downgrade into a likely early second and a best 22 ruckman.
Adelaide will want to wait a year, but Port are a more attractive destination so it's risky for them. We still have the option of matching as well though that's not very likely.
---------------
Though not ideal, I personally would at the absolute bare minimum accept:

Adelaide: 4 + 46 + F2
Essendon: 9 + Draper

Gives us points for Kako + gives us another selection in a strong draft. Someone is bound to have an academy or F/S that we can trade our 2 F2s to for a 2025 1st.

 

[rusman]

To get Tsatas game time onball we need to move Zerrett to half back or have injury imo

Mcgrath - Mckay - Ridley (A.Roberts)
Redman - Reid - Zerrett

Duursma - Parish - El Hawli (Perkins)
Bryan - Durham - Caldwell (Tsatas)

N.Martin - H.Jones - Gresham
Langford - Caddy - Kako (Draper)

or

Mcgrath - Mckay - Ridley (A.Roberts/El Hawli)
Redman - Reid - Zerrett

Duursma - Parish - N.Martin (Perkins)
Bryan - Durham - Caldwell (Tsatas)

Hobbs/Davey - H.Jones - Gresham
Langford - Caddy - Kako (Draper)


PICK 9** (Could play anywhere pending who it is)


Personally i want to see Martin in a roam as he pleases Half Fwd role

Needs much less Gresham

 

[doug85]

Another option:

Ask Draper if he is committing to a contract extension now. If he isn't and is thinking about a possible move to SA next year, then do it now.

Adelaide out: 4 and F1,
Essendon out: 9 , Draper and F2

Given the depth of this year's draft, Adelaide still have a top 10 pick, an F1 downgrade into a likely early second and a best 22 ruckman.
Adelaide will want to wait a year, but Port are a more attractive destination so it's risky for them. We still have the option of matching as well though that's not very likely.
---------------
Though not ideal, I personally would at the absolute bare minimum accept:

Adelaide: 4 + 46 + F2
Essendon: 9 + Draper

Gives us points for Kako + gives us another selection in a strong draft. Someone is bound to have an academy or F/S that we can trade our 2 F2s to for a 2025 1st.

I like it, but don’t think it would happen.

From what I can gather, bigger trades are in the works for months prior to the trade period. It’s part of the reason Petracca isn’t leaving, the runway was too short for clubs to have their ducks in a row for a player of that magnitude.

 

[jdstorm]

It is not obvious that this post is serious. But I assume it is.

For a start, why do you assume I am angry? I don't expect that people have read my posts and care enough to be able to summarise what I think but I doubt there is one surprise there (to anyone who does read). I also just assume that you're projecting the way you think about things on to me. There is not one 'person' I don't like, I don't know any of them. There are a number of players I do not rate and would get rid of as a priority. Heppell, for example, is someone I understand to be a really decent guy, but he sucks arse as a player. I would have traded him in his AA year, you can look that one up, and then it would be the destination club's fans would then be looking back on his career trying to understand how a good player's prime years ended at 23 in the absence of a single serious injury).

Then there is trading players 'just because the list doesn't function'? The list doesn't function because of the players, no? It's not like we can upload a software update.

'Unders' is also an interesting concept. There is no doubt that we would not get anything like the value we spent on a lot of those player. But you talk about it like cyclical economic factors hit and that the share price will bounce back. What your really is is an acknowledgment of how average the players. You've accepted that we'd have to accept well under the value we paid to get rid of them. What does that really say about the player, that they are good and that we should be playing them?

When you break it down, as is the case with most things, it is no where near as extreme as it looks.

Look at Hobbs, as the first example. He's a slow hardball specialist who is on the small side and who is not a good endurance athlete. His kicking is average and he is 3 years in the system and hasn't even clearly showed that his best inside trick, initiating body contact when in possession of the ball, even works at AFL level. There is a clear warning sign there because it should be obvious that his best trick can translate to AFL level by now.

There are 2 spots in a team, at most, for slow inside mids and most teams have guys who are much more destructive (Cripps would be the extreme version). Look at the way Brodie can't get a game for his second team, a former pick 8, with a full season averaging pretty close to 30 a week. What did Brodie get traded for? Or look at the way one of Parker and Adams was squeezed from Sydney's team this season.

As for Tsatas, there is no evidence that players with his level of kicking deficiency ever really improve. His kicking deficiency is closer to Dylan Clark than it is Jobe, for example. We know that because Jobe could hit them 60m, not struggle to kick the ball 40m. Tsatas was considered worthy of pick 5 (or whatever pick we used on him) because of his ability to spread from the contest, a Rozee-like player who was perhaps a little stronger inside than Rozee. Who needs a running player that can't kick? I hear and read a lot about Tsatas' size. My point of comparison for Tsatas' is Laverde and Langford who could bully VFL players in their second years, Laverde in particular. Tastas can barley free himself to do anything with the ball inside. Tsatas the first touch inside AFL player is a fantasy at this stgae. You'd spent 3 more seasons trying to work out if he is AFL standard. His value will well and truly have tanked by then.

As for Martin, I wouldn't need him and could trade him for value. I think we also need to read between the lines a bit with Martin. Moved to the one place where his front running would not expose the team and all we really got from it was to rob ourselves of Redman's ball use which is infinitely better than Martin's. Give me Laverde in the defensive role occupied by Redman and Redman in Martin's role at half back any time. I'd also have D'Ambrosio, a player who actually hits targets, plus what is very likely a first round pick because Martin is a very well regarded player.

What else is even controversial? We have 1 best 22 player and 2 fringe players. Parish? No one even wants him, so the flaw in my position is assuming I can get anything for him. Doesn't say much about the player, though, does it? What's the argument for playing a player the rest of the competition thinks so little of?

I assumed anger due to your word choice. If that’s just how you communicate my bad.

In terms of list function… it’s more like players are ingredients to a meal. Many of them are high quality ingredients (high draft picks) but the flavour profile is off because the ingredients don’t compliment.

Other teams judge only what happens and what is measurable. A foundational Tennent of All analytics is competent coaching/team management. However that’s not always the case.

If the results are poor other teams assume that the players are poor and have no value. If they weren’t they would have done better.

So the choice is either to throw away the ingredients and start again (your proposal) or you can find some lower quality ingredients that balance the meal. (Cheap easy to acquire players at positions of need) it’s now competent (win some games but with flaws)and then have others overvalue your players (see hawthorn 2024)

Then trade from a position of strength.
Both options have their own respective challenges and while the draft does reward being bad over mediocrity. Essendons wealth, resources and appearances in Marquette games would make it a desirable destination for star players if it could demonstrate sustained competence.

It’s for this reason that I prefer the 2nd path. Establish competence. Develop good habits. Rebalance the list. (And if you have to bruise some egos by playing guys in the VFL who are better then it so be it. Good teams have good depth)

 

[JayJ20]

I like it, but don’t think it would happen.

From what I can gather, bigger trades are in the works for months prior to the trade period. It’s part of the reason Petracca isn’t leaving, the runway was too short for clubs to have their ducks in a row for a player of that magnitude.

Yeah and that's the lack of foresight some of us have been talking about.

Adelaide publicly stated that they will come after Draper next year. Are we just going to wait until next year in hopes that Draper commits? Are we going to leave it to a random compensation system? Have we thought about whether we can benefit from trading Draper to balance the list if he is going anyway?

With our list, something needs to give. We can't ever play Peter Wright, Draper, Bryan and Caddy in the same side. Have we thought about trading one of the first two to trade up before the bid?

When Rosa says that teams don't want to budge, I'm intrigued to know what they offered because I believe including Wright to Melbourne and Draper to Adelaide may pique their interest.

 

[footyfanatic111]

Twomey reporting we have interest in konstanty - potentially as a DFA.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Keystone agony]

That's simply untrue.

In Round 1 of the VFL season he was named our best player with 25 disposals, 6 marks and a goal.

Both the Davey boys are a fine comparison - but one has played 20 games in 2 years (a handful as sub) and the other hasn't debuted.

We were 4th after Round 17

and 2nd after round 12

Why would we be playing a 4th round draft pick 18 year old that isnt absolutely smashing down the door. Just because he was named in the best isnt the entire story. It still wasnt better than what our side was doing to be 2nd half way through the year and 4th 3 qtrs of the way through the year.

There not the best comparisons, because there not top 10-15 pick like Kako is. But even a guy who is a 4th round small forward was seen ready to play 10 AFL games when we very successful early in that year aswell

If we genuinely thought we were a top 4 side next year we wouldnt be moving on Shiel, Lav, Stringer, Kelly, Weideman and Setterfield. So id be pretty confident the mindset has shifted from what it was entering into 2024

Please keep ignoring the 4 names ive mentioned aswell though

If you thought Tsatas and Caddy were ready made for their roles then your inept in this area

 

[naraku]

Wasn't Konstanty seen as a good defensive forward in his draft year?

 

[cAsEy_18]

Another option:

Ask Draper if he is committing to a contract extension now. If he isn't and is thinking about a possible move to SA next year, then do it now.

Adelaide out: 4 and F1,
Essendon out: 9 , Draper and F2

Given the depth of this year's draft, Adelaide still have a top 10 pick, an F1 downgrade into a likely early second and a best 22 ruckman.
Adelaide will want to wait a year, but Port are a more attractive destination so it's risky for them. We still have the option of matching as well though that's not very likely.
---------------
Though not ideal, I personally would at the absolute bare minimum accept:

Adelaide: 4 + 46 + F2
Essendon: 9 + Draper

Gives us points for Kako + gives us another selection in a strong draft. Someone is bound to have an academy or F/S that we can trade our 2 F2s to for a 2025 1st.

If you’re Adelaide, you don’t do that. The guy is a FA next year. As in, free. You don’t downgrade from 4 to 9 and future 1st to a future 2nd just to get him a year earlier.

Sure the argument could be made that it would be a “sure thing” this year if they got him, and minds change/anything can change in 12 months, nothing is guaranteed. But if I was them and that did happen, I’d just pivot to the next target. Not worth giving all that up.