Recruiting AFL Trade & Free Agency XII - 💰💰💰

[Lore]

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Spoiler: 2024 Draft Order

 

[crackers65]

He actually has two more years to go on his contract. If any one can get him out of there it will be at a premium.

 

[JayJ20]

Harley Reid will be one of the most expensive trades in AFL history. But it's also worth it because there's no gap on our list more than a potential superstar goal-kicking mid. A genuine marquee player.

He was dominating our senior players as an underage player (not that it says much due to our list quality) and showed enormous potential this year. We have the draft capital to get it done.

Reid against Fremantle: 15 contested possessions, 29 disposals, 10 clearances in his first year so that's nowhere near what he is capable of.

Mind you, only Setterfield in round 2 vs Sydney (17 CP), Merrett vs Adelaide (15 CP), Stringer vs GWS (15) Caldwell vs Geelong (18CP) equalled or better that tally this year.

That's simply not enough if we want to build a sustainable brand.

Just have to convince him.

 

[ant555]

Harley Reid will be one of the most expensive trades in AFL history. But it's also worth it because there's no gap on our list more than a potential superstar goal-kicking mid. A genuine marquee player.

He was dominating our senior players as an underage player (not that it says much due to our list quality) and showed enormous potential this year. We have the draft capital to get it done.

Reid against Fremantle: 15 contested possessions, 29 disposals, 10 clearances in his first year so that's nowhere near what he is capable of.

Mind you, only Setterfield in round 2 vs Sydney (17 CP), Merrett vs Adelaide (15 CP), Stringer vs GWS (15) Caldwell vs Geelong (18CP) equalled or better that tally this year.

That's simply not enough if we want to build a sustainable brand.

Just have to convince him.

Will the price we pay be too much ? I agree he is worth a mega trade and he is what we really need but how much difference does he make without a supporting cast ? It is clear we need some fresh new faces again next year and maybe even the following year so would giving up the draft to get the super star come at a price that may well hurt us as well and we end up being a bit of a one man show ? I would love to see him in our jumper. He is a star for sure but I want to be at Geelong level to trade our 3 top end picks like they did for Cameron. There is a real danger we sell the farm but never get the fruits as he will have to carry the side most weeks. Bit like Judd. Carlton got a champion but it did not make them a top 4 side and they only won 2 elimination finals in his time. He did not have the team around him at Carlton.

 

[Call Me Cake]

Bit like Judd. Carlton got a champion but it did not make them a top 4 side and they only won 2 elimination finals in his time. He did not have the team around him at Carlton.

Carlton won back to back spoons in 2005 and 2006 and were a position away from a spoon threepeat in 2007 when Judd arrived at the club. He walked into an absolute mess at a time when he was meant to be in his prime.

Also, Harley will be 20 with under 50 games played at the start of the 2026 season whereas Judd was 6 months shy of turning 25 with 135 games under his belt when he started playing for the scum. Wouldn't exactly call it the same scenario.

I personally think we've done enough drafting and our list is pretty even, we just haven't got that big fish. With where Reid would be at upon a hypothetical arrival you'd basically get a pre-big fish with the added bonus of way more out of him long-term.

 

[Keystone agony]

He would cost all 3 first rounders if he picked to leave in 12 months time to us imo

 

[Corleone]

He would cost all 3 first rounders if he picked to leave in 12 months time to us imo

Yep, and he's worth that IMO.

We should be doing everything possible to land him.

 

[Keystone agony]

Yep, and he's worth that IMO.

We should be doing everything possible to land him.

Can probably work, their is a tipping point. As they say there are 1st round picks and 1st round picks. They can vary by 27 slots these days

It will depend a bit if we have enough solid B grade + types from Roberts, El Hawli, Reid, Perkins, Cox, Hobbs, Tsatas, H.Jones, Hayes, Davey, Lual ect types where we can potentially pass on 3 top 10 picks and be confident we dont get hurt

I think his age, deal tenure (will be 10 years id imagine - maybe a smart manager makes/wants it at 8 years), but 10 would bypass FA until very backend of career, make it ok. But ive always been a huge Reid man. Although the way he returned and the style of footy he plays does have to be worried with longevity

 

[jdstorm]

Carlton won back to back spoons in 2005 and 2006 and were a position away from a spoon threepeat in 2007 when Judd arrived at the club. He walked into an absolute mess at a time when he was meant to be in his prime.

Also, Harley will be 20 with under 50 games played at the start of the 2026 season whereas Judd was 6 months shy of turning 25 with 135 games under his belt when he started playing for the scum. Wouldn't exactly call it the same scenario.

I personally think we've done enough drafting and our list is pretty even, we just haven't got that big fish. With where Reid would be at upon a hypothetical arrival you'd basically get a pre-big fish with the added bonus of way more out of him long-term.

Free agency didn’t exist when Judd went to Carlton. If you have someone like Reid locked in and have cap space guys will want to play with him.

It’s harder to get stranded now. See Geelong just topping up with FAs when guys retire.

Plus we have Berwick coming as a FS in a few years . So provided we aren’t torching future picks and it’s say 3 firsts confined to next years draft there’s less risk of long term pain.

Paying up for a certain outcome is desirable vs playing the draft game of chance.

Most of the young guys on the list id like to see for the next 2 years. Think we can phase out a few best 22/senior types if things don’t go well next year for more picks.

 

[Call Me Cake]

Free agency didn’t exist when Judd went to Carlton. If you have someone like Reid locked in and have cap space guys will want to play with him.

It’s harder to get stranded now. See Geelong just topping up with FAs when guys retire.

Plus we have Berwick coming as a FS in a few years . So provided we aren’t torching future picks and it’s say 3 firsts confined to next years draft there’s less risk of long term pain.

Paying up for a certain outcome is desirable vs playing the draft game of chance.

Most of the young guys on the list id like to see for the next 2 years. Think we can phase out a few best 22/senior types if things don’t go well next year for more picks.

Also whoever has him for 100 games has access to all his F/S's.

 

[jdstorm]

Also whoever has him for 100 games has access to all his F/S's.

Suppose that’s TBD with AFLW now existing what if you have parents play 100 games for two different clubs.

 

[JayJ20]

Will the price we pay be too much ? I agree he is worth a mega trade and he is what we really need but how much difference does he make without a supporting cast ? It is clear we need some fresh new faces again next year and maybe even the following year so would giving up the draft to get the super star come at a price that may well hurt us as well and we end up being a bit of a one man show ? I would love to see him in our jumper. He is a star for sure but I want to be at Geelong level to trade our 3 top end picks like they did for Cameron. There is a real danger we sell the farm but never get the fruits as he will have to carry the side most weeks. Bit like Judd. Carlton got a champion but it did not make them a top 4 side and they only won 2 elimination finals in his time. He did not have the team around him at Carlton.

I'm all for it. We have Koby coming through as a safety net and the opportunity is just too hard to pass up. We have two first rounders and two second rounders next year. We possibly may have a first round compensation or end of first for Draper. That should be more than enough to make a deal, keep our future first and make one or two top 40 selections next year. Given we were very lucky to have the NGA rule change happen, we should capitalise on that. It's much easier to draft/trade for players around a superstar than trading/drafting a superstar.

Put simply, we're not winning a premiership without a player capable of being a one man show. Collingwood isn't winning a premiership without Daicos. Brisbane doesn't win without Neale. Richmond don't win one without Dusty. Melbourne don't win one without Petracca. Geelong without Cameron and Danger.

Sure there is a risk we don't win anything, but we've gone way too long without even giving ourselves a chance by spending a premium for players that aren't at that level or drafting first rounders that aren't at that level.

The issue we face is that generational talents are hard to come by and they are usually available at the top end of the draft every second or third year, and that's if we're lucky enough to be at the bottom at the right time. If we are, then we'd need to be lucky enough that it isn't tied to a team's academy or F/S.

I know the Judd trade is often highlighted, but I don't think that was a bad deal for Carlton. Carlton failed in so many different areas all at once. With the amount of priority picks and pick 1s they had, they should have built a list that was capable of winning. Keeping their picks for Kennedy and Chris Masten wouldn't have won them a premiership. Their inability to capitalise on Judd shouldn't deter us.

Speaking of Carlton, despite having Curnow, Weitering, Cripps and Walsh, they're still missing that Dusty/Reid-type goal kicking mid, which is why they went for Petracca. I don't want to be in that situation if an opportunity arises.

 

[Old Campaigner]

I don’t think there’s much point throwing the kitchen sink at him unless we can be confident the rest of the list is at a level that can support him

 

[ant555]

I'm all for it. We have Koby coming through as a safety net and the opportunity is just too hard to pass up. We have two first rounders and two second rounders next year. We possibly may have a first round compensation or end of first for Draper. That should be more than enough to make a deal, keep our future first and make one or two top 40 selections next year. Given we were very lucky to have the NGA rule change happen, we should capitalise on that. It's much easier to draft/trade for players around a superstar than trading/drafting a superstar.

Put simply, we're not winning a premiership without a player capable of being a one man show. Collingwood isn't winning a premiership without Daicos. Brisbane doesn't win without Neale. Richmond don't win one without Dusty. Melbourne don't win one without Petracca. Geelong without Cameron and Danger.

Sure there is a risk we don't win anything, but we've gone way too long without even giving ourselves a chance by spending a premium for players that aren't at that level or drafting first rounders that aren't at that level.

The issue we face is that generational talents are hard to come by and they are usually available at the top end of the draft every second or third year, and that's if we're lucky enough to be at the bottom at the right time. If we are, then we'd need to be lucky enough that it isn't tied to a team's academy or F/S.

I know the Judd trade is often highlighted, but I don't think that was a bad deal for Carlton. Carlton failed in so many different areas all at once. With the amount of priority picks and pick 1s they had, they should have built a list that was capable of winning. Keeping their picks for Kennedy and Chris Masten wouldn't have won them a premiership. Their inability to capitalise on Judd shouldn't deter us.

Speaking of Carlton, despite having Curnow, Weitering, Cripps and Walsh, they're still missing that Dusty/Reid-type goal kicking mid, which is why they went for Petracca. I don't want to be in that situation if an opportunity arises.

A few things.

I am not hanging my future on a kid who is not out of under 16.

Never said the Judd trade was bad for the Blues. It just did not work out because he had to carry all the load. The list was not ready. As you say they now have a list that needs someone like Reid as they have a lot of other key spots filled. We do not.

We are not winning a premiership on the back of Reid and a kid who will not even be in the system for another 3 years.

I think he would be great but I also think it is a risky sugar hit that probably has a lower percentage of coming off than going to the draft for the next two years and looking at the FA pool or a trade to a player that is next level down that will not cost us 3 first round picks.

Then there is the issue of Tasmania looming. If you do not go to the draft and take a bit of top end talent (at least 1 top 20 pick) in the next 3 drafts then you better have your list sorted. We do not.

Also no point mentioning Dusty or Petracca or Daicos . Yes they where key playing in premierships , although I would not agree that Melbourne do not win if the did not have Petracca or the Pies do not win without Daicos. They came via the draft so although they are stars and can win games for their side it did not cost those clubs 3 first round picks or decent players.

The Cameron / Dangerfield trades highlight my point. A lot less risk as they went into a system that has been top 4 for the majority of the last 20 years and had the culture and success already.

Now if we could get Reid for what Brisbane payed for Neale then I am all for it. It cost the Lions 6 19 55 for Neale and pick 30. Even the Dangerfield trade was not excessive. Dean Gore and picks 9 and 28 to get Danger and pick 50. If that was the price then yes please but we all know it will not be the price.

Understand the need and the want. Just not excited by what the asking price will be and the risk as far as where the list is at. But who knows. Maybe some of our blokes will finally find the level required. That is why 2025 will be such an interesting season. The question marks on 10 or so key players will be answered one way or the other so we could be in a position to get maximum value out of Reid or we could be starting another rebuild.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

Reid will extend two more years at Eagles.

 

[katana]

Also whoever has him for 100 games has access to all his F/S's.

why do people say this moronic shit. he doesn't even have a child. let alone a child that's not only good at football but good enough to be drafted in the first 30 picks where an f/s discount would actually mean anything. and that would be best case 19 years away.

hell he might have a negative sperm count for all we ****ing know.

 

[I Remember Bluey]

why do people say this moronic shit. he doesn't even have a child. let alone a child that's not only good at football but good enough to be drafted in the first 30 picks where an f/s discount would actually mean anything. and that would be best case 19 years away.

hell he might have a negative sperm count for all we ****ing know.

We will get the Guelf to impersonate him

 

[Milanista28]

It's all about timing, if Harley Reid wants to come to your football club you do it, 'we're not ready' isn't a good enough excuse to pass someone like him.

Fwiw, I'd be shocked if he chose us anyway, I mean why would you? He'll probably get 20 million over 10 year offers from better clubs than us.

Personally think he should stay with the eagles until FA anyway.

 

[dank420_]

No one is stopping him from turning heel mid game.

Rip off that shit weagles top to reveal THE SASH.

He tugs on it - the Marvel stadium fireworks go off and he beats the shit out of Jack Petrucelle.

 

[bombreys]

It's all about timing, if Harley Reid wants to come to your football club you do it, 'we're not ready' isn't a good enough excuse to pass someone like him.

Fwiw, I'd be shocked if he chose us anyway, I mean why would you? He'll probably get 20 million over 10 year offers from better clubs than us.

Personally think he should stay with the eagles until FA anyway.

This part's huge - if you were Harley, why would you come to Essendon when you could go to Geelong or Collingwood?

 

[ant555]

This part's huge - if you were Harley, why would you come to Essendon when you could go to Geelong or Collingwood?

Players do not always make good choices.

 

[JayJ20]

A few things.

I am not hanging my future on a kid who is not out of under 16.

Never said the Judd trade was bad for the Blues. It just did not work out because he had to carry all the load. The list was not ready. As you say they now have a list that needs someone like Reid as they have a lot of other key spots filled. We do not.

We are not winning a premiership on the back of Reid and a kid who will not even be in the system for another 3 years.

I think he would be great but I also think it is a risky sugar hit that probably has a lower percentage of coming off than going to the draft for the next two years and looking at the FA pool or a trade to a player that is next level down that will not cost us 3 first round picks.

Then there is the issue of Tasmania looming. If you do not go to the draft and take a bit of top end talent (at least 1 top 20 pick) in the next 3 drafts then you better have your list sorted. We do not.

Also no point mentioning Dusty or Petracca or Daicos . Yes they where key playing in premierships , although I would not agree that Melbourne do not win if the did not have Petracca or the Pies do not win without Daicos. They came via the draft so although they are stars and can win games for their side it did not cost those clubs 3 first round picks or decent players.

The Cameron / Dangerfield trades highlight my point. A lot less risk as they went into a system that has been top 4 for the majority of the last 20 years and had the culture and success already.

Now if we could get Reid for what Brisbane payed for Neale then I am all for it. It cost the Lions 6 19 55 for Neale and pick 30. Even the Dangerfield trade was not excessive. Dean Gore and picks 9 and 28 to get Danger and pick 50. If that was the price then yes please but we all know it will not be the price.

Understand the need and the want. Just not excited by what the asking price will be and the risk as far as where the list is at. But who knows. Maybe some of our blokes will finally find the level required. That is why 2025 will be such an interesting season. The question marks on 10 or so key players will be answered one way or the other so we could be in a position to get maximum value out of Reid or we could be starting another rebuild.

I get your points and understand why you would have reservations. A club with Essendon's record will understandably be a bit more conservative.

I'm just at the point where I can't be bothered with constantly hoping that somehow somewhere that player will be drafted by us. If he chooses us, then just get it done. That's my position if I put it simply.

 

[mickwrld]

Early thoughts on OOC players:

2. Sam Draper: Will either get a monster contract or go via FA. Right now I think FA would be better for us.
8. Ben Hobbs: Tough one, Shiel seemingly playing off half back will give him more opportunities inside but needs to take his chance. I can see Geelong making a play for him.
9. Dylan Shiel: Just short of FA, if there are clubs interested I'd expect a minimal fuss trade.
12. Will Setterfield: One year deal if he stays on the park, cut if he doesn't I'd expect.
15. Jayden Laverde: I don't see him on the list next year tbh. FA to anyone who needs a lockdown medium defender.
17. Todd Goldstein: Almost certain he'll retire before the MSD.
23. Harrison Jones: Likely a two or four year deal early in the season to take him to free agency.
24. Nick Bryan: Either a four year deal or requests a trade for me. Right now hoping for 4 years.
25. Jaxon Prior: See where he lands in terms of B22. Could be 2 years, or 1 or cut.
26. Kaine Baldwin (if he gets back on): Depends on if he stays on the park and can get himself in the 22. If he does I'm bullish on him.
26. Will Hoare (if he gets on): I don't particularly see it at AFL level with him. Slow, poor kick and at 25 he'd need to be B22 straight away to be a chance.
29. Jye Menzie: Think it depends on whether he gets back to his 2023 form or not. If he does, give him a year or two. If he doesn't, likely gets cut.
31. Zach Reid: If he stays on the park and plays this enormous potential I see a 3 or 4 year deal going his way.
33. Alwyn Davey jr: Make or break year for him. Will need to pass Guelfi and Menzie to stay IMO.
34. Luamon Lual: He wasn't Anthony Morgan levels but he wasn't far off last year. Needs a good year with Nguyen snapping at his heels.
39. Vigo Visentini: If he shows good growth, retain him. Which I expect he will. Otherwise cut.
41. Saad El-Hawli: I think he needs to establish himself as best 22 by years end to get another contract at 24 and a mature aged recruit.
42. Jayden Nguyen: I'm hoping he shows a bit, looked very good in his VFL game time last year.
44. Archer Day-Wicks: Probably gets extended unless he plays really really badly early.

I'd be targeting Dante Visentini, Toby Conway, Liam Reidy, Max Heath, Peter Ladhams if we do end up losing two rucks (which I'm expecting).

Interesting, what makes you say Hoare is slow? For a big man he’s bloody quick imo. He’s also 24 I’m pretty sure? Best VFL defender. Also like the Zach Reid take.

 

[FootyGuru]

For Essendon to compete for a flag we really need 2x top 20 players. Essendon arguably don’t have any. Maybe there are some that might get to that level on the list, but if Reid shows that elite talent and wants to come to the bombers we gotta get it done.

Depth starts to look much better around superstars

 

[Old Campaigner]

Isn't the general rule of thumb that success is determined by the quality of the bottom 10 or so players in the 22 rather than the top 10? I don't know that Reid really helps with that

 

[jdstorm]

So Nate Caddy is getting some mid time right now in preseason.

If Caddy and Tsatas manage to stick as mids our list balance immediately makes a whole lot more sense.

We’d be ready to rocket right up the ladder.