Recruiting AFL Trade & Free Agency XII - 💰💰💰

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Spoiler: 2024 Draft Order

 

[fairbump_playon]

It’s not even really a weakness. We were one point off top for scores from centre clearance average over and 5.7 points off top from scores from stoppage. Both above AFL average. Gold Coast below AFL average in both.

We were 10 points off top for scores from turnover. Below AFL average. Sydney and Brisbane 1 and 2 in that category.

We need guys who can do damage by foot more than anything. Rowell is great and would be an upgrade on many but defensive midfield isn’t where you spend your resources when you have so much work to do elsewhere.

It’s when the going gets tough that matters

Season wide averages include us being massive front runners when it suits us, and giant babies when it gets hard.

You need an A grade contested game to go head to head with the heavyweights.

 

[ant555]

It’s not even really a weakness. We were one point off top for scores from centre clearance average over and 5.7 points off top from scores from stoppage. Both above AFL average. Gold Coast below AFL average in both.

We were 10 points off top for scores from turnover. Below AFL average. Sydney and Brisbane 1 and 2 in that category.

We need guys who can do damage by foot more than anything. Rowell is great and would be an upgrade on many but defensive midfield isn’t where you spend your resources when you have so much work to do elsewhere.

Yet we rated 17th for stoppage clearance so we are also giving up a lot of the footy to the opposition.
The Hawks improved not just off the back of really good skills and speed but also the ability to just keep winning the football in the contest.
We need to improve skill wise but we also need a massive lift in stoppage and around the ground contest.

 

[Squeaky]

Now I want Rodwell and Rowell.

Rod Tidwell too...

 

[faible]

overall talent level isn’t as important as how talents work together as a whole.

We have 3 former AA mids in the side (Sheil, Parish, Merrett) and we can’t play them together because they are too small at stoppage.

their weakness compound in an easily exploitable way. Rowell has the same flaws.

Reid is midsized, can kick and gets goals. He’s a much easier fit in most sides than Rowell. They don’t really belong in the same conversation

If you brought in Rowell you'd move on Hobbs, Shiel and (maybe) Parish if there was a taker.

Yes, Reid is probably 'better' but one may be gettable and the other may not be. Rowell is elite at what he's elite at, and it's something none of our current cohort are elite at.

 

[Milanista28]

If you brought in Rowell you'd move on Hobbs, Shiel and (maybe) Parish if there was a taker.

Yes, Reid is probably 'better' but one may be gettable and the other may not be. Rowell is elite at what he's elite at, and it's something none of our current cohort are elite at.

Parish, Hobbs and Shiel out, Rowell and Callaghan in. That's the stuff of dreams right there.

 

[joey_jo_jo]

If you brought in Rowell you'd move on Hobbs, Shiel and (maybe) Parish if there was a taker.

Yes, Reid is probably 'better' but one may be gettable and the other may not be. Rowell is elite at what he's elite at, and it's something none of our current cohort are elite at.

I would add that what he is elite at isn't as easily stopped as what Parish is elite at even though at a surface level people think they are both "clearance beasts".
Parish's gift is how well he reads the ball off the ruckmans hands and his strong hands at ground level, but he is not strong over the ball which is why he is mainly effective at centre clearances when it is 6-6-6 or in open space on the flanks. As soon as it is a general stoppage or contested footy in tight teams are able to bully him off the ball.

Teams have tried to run with rowell but he is too strong in contact (We saw this with Caldwell, he held him well for about a half but once he started to fatigue from the constant physicality Rowell had a big influence). Doesnt matter how many players are at a stoppage Rowell can win the physical contest.

 

[joey_jo_jo]

Parish, Hobbs and Shiel out, Rowell and Callaghan in. That's the stuff of dreams right there.

I still have hopes for Hobbs but overall would be happy with that.
I think Hobbs has the right attitude that we need, just think he is going to be a slower burn than someone like Rowell. If he is happy to be lower in pecking order for a while Id be happy to keep him but if someone offers him a more prominent role then no harm in letting him go if offer is good.

 

[thebigboy]

Rod Tidwell too...

Rumor has it he wants a lot of money..

 

[jdstorm]

If you brought in Rowell you'd move on Hobbs, Shiel and (maybe) Parish if there was a taker.

Yes, Reid is probably 'better' but one may be gettable and the other may not be. Rowell is elite at what he's elite at, and it's something none of our current cohort are elite at.

But then it becomes about cost.

Say Rowell is worth 2 top 10 draft picks under the new draft index Picks 9+10 is about 2600 points

Parish and Hobbs your probably looking at a pick in the 30s or 40s for each. combined those picks are likely worth around 500 points

Is the difference in rowells production really 5x that of parish and Caldwell combined and almost 10x one of them individually?

I would add that what he is elite at isn't as easily stopped as what Parish is elite at even though at a surface level people think they are both "clearance beasts".
Parish's gift is how well he reads the ball off the ruckmans hands and his strong hands at ground level, but he is not strong over the ball which is why he is mainly effective at centre clearances when it is 6-6-6 or in open space on the flanks. As soon as it is a general stoppage or contested footy in tight teams are able to bully him off the ball.

Teams have tried to run with rowell but he is too strong in contact (We saw this with Caldwell, he held him well for about a half but once he started to fatigue from the constant physicality Rowell had a big influence). Doesnt matter how many players are at a stoppage Rowell can win the physical contest.

Rowell’s bigger then Caldwell of course he’s going to fatigue fighting a behemoth in his own weight class.

It’s not going to bother a setterfield type nearly as much despite him being a worse player because this isn’t about relative strength but overall strength and you can just get guys who are bigger and have significant height, weight and reach advantages.

Essendon is always getting overpowered because the midfield is too small. And without bigger enforcer types your skilled smaller types just get physically worn down and then dominated at the end of games

 

[faible]

But then it becomes about cost.

Say Rowell is worth 2 top 10 draft picks under the new draft index Picks 9+10 is about 2600 points

Parish and Hobbs your probably looking at a pick in the 30s or 40s for each. combined those picks are likely worth around 500 points

Is the difference in rowells production really 5x that of parish and Caldwell combined and almost 10x one of them individually?

I don't think points is of great relevance in this case. Parish would be undervalued on that metric, he was a midfielder taken in the top-10 who has largely lived up to expectations. He's an AA standard midfielder at his best, and in a different mix there's every chance (assuming he stayed fit) he'd get back there again.

Our mix is a bit off, so persisting with that mix because changing that mix means overpaying a bit, isn't solving much.

Using points to say 'well x is worth TEN TIMES MORE' is an incorrect and inappropriate usage of the points system IMO.

 

[jdstorm]

Rowell does not have the same flaw. The reason why Parish / Shiel / Merrett do not work is they are the same beast. Merrett has a bit more grunt than Parish and Shiel but they do not work as a trio because contested one on one footy is not their one wood. Rowell is miles in front of them at winning contested footy around the ground and is not too small at stoppage. That is a proven fact. He was 6th for stoppage wins in 2024. He does not have a flaw in that area.
You could easily Play Rowell / Merrett / Parish or Shiel and get results.

As for Reid JayJ20 said players "like" Reid and Rowell. It was not a comparison. Reid is elite because he can play forward / Back / Midfield. Rowell is elite because he is an elite contested ball winner. Reid will probably be better because he plays a few spots at a high level . Rowell is still an elite / proven midfielder.

I like Rowell and his stoppage work is elite but his kickings average, marking is non existent and doesn’t win a huge amount of defensive 1 on 1s which makes me think the contested nature of stoppage play is inflating his tackle numbers. Which makes people think he’s a solid defender.

I don't think points is of great relevance in this case. Parish would be undervalued on that metric, he was a midfielder taken in the top-10 who has largely lived up to expectations. He's an AA standard midfielder at his best, and in a different mix there's every chance (assuming he stayed fit) he'd get back there again.

Our mix is a bit off, so persisting with that mix because changing that mix means overpaying a bit, isn't solving much.

Using points to say 'well x is worth TEN TIMES MORE' is an incorrect and inappropriate usage of the points system IMO.

I’d say it’s entirely appropriate use of the points system in the sense that the cost paid to acquire players is draft picks and the difference in points represents the difference in likely career outcome of the players we would be bringing into the side:

The choice next season would be to either have Parish, Hobbs and 2 FRP or Rowell and 3 picks in the 30s or later

The best way to quantify the value of the difference between those picks is points no?

Rowell is elite at winning contested ball. He’s an offensive weapon in that way. But also average kick, zero marking presence and for someone with high tackle numbers is actually low effectiveness in defensive 1 on 1 contests.

He’s better then Parish/Hobbs that’s undeniable but I’m not sure he moves the needle especially with Tsatas earmarked for that offensive contested role

 

[fairbump_playon]

I like Rowell and his stoppage work is elite but his kickings average, marking is non existent and doesn’t win a huge amount of defensive 1 on 1s which makes me think the contested nature of stoppage play is inflating his tackle numbers. Which makes people think he’s a solid defender.



I’d say it’s entirely appropriate use of the points system in the sense that the cost paid to acquire players is draft picks and the difference in points represents the difference in likely career outcome of the players we would be bringing into the side:

The choice next season would be to either have Parish, Hobbs and 2 FRP or Rowell and 3 picks in the 30s or later

The best way to quantify the value of the difference between those picks is points no?

Rowell is elite at winning contested ball. He’s an offensive weapon in that way. But also average kick, zero marking presence and for someone with high tackle numbers is actually low effectiveness in defensive 1 on 1 contests.

He’s better then Parish/Hobbs that’s undeniable but I’m not sure he moves the needle especially with Tsatas earmarked for that offensive contested role

On draft points.. really don’t think you should be misusing them in this way. Their only intention is as a tool used in the draft.

Like - why use points to compare value instead of salary? Salary isn’t perfect but is a more accurate measure of how clubs rate players than draft pick points are.

We traded Stringer for nothing but is he one 20th the player that Kako is?

 

[jdstorm]

On draft points.. really don’t think you should be misusing them in this way. Their only intention is as a tool used in the draft.

Like - why use points to compare value instead of salary? Salary isn’t perfect but is a more accurate measure of how clubs rate players than draft pick points are.

We traded Stringer for nothing but is he one 20th the player that Kako is?

I guess what I’m trying to say is having less draft capital hurts your teams ability to improve and bring in new talent.

So in essence is 2000 draft points (roughly pick 4 in the draft Or whatever that splits into worth) and how that effects your team building loving forward worth the difference in production between Rowell and your choice of Parish/Hobbs/Setterfield.

Ie the picks we gave up for Sheil ended up being Caldwell and Miles Bergman

I don’t think that level production difference between Rowell and Hobbs justifys trading that level of future production and that’s fair value for a player of Rowells stature

 

[doug85]

Surely there’s no way Rowell would come to Essendon when Geelong and Collingwood are in the frame, even though we’d likely have the most to offer.

Rowell might prefer the pies and cats. But he can’t pick a team that can’t do a deal that satisfies GC in a trade (his manager likely won’t allow it). We’re well ahead of both those teams in terms of draft capital and maybe players too if Parish/Hobbs were prepared to go to the GCS.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

I like Rowell and his stoppage work is elite but his kickings average, marking is non existent and doesn’t win a huge amount of defensive 1 on 1s which makes me think the contested nature of stoppage play is inflating his tackle numbers. Which makes people think he’s a solid defender.

I think that does go a long way defensively though. GC were top few for defensive 1 v 1 wins last year and a lot of that stems from pressure at the coal face when you’ve got even numbers with 6-6-6. While we were last. Though I imagine a lot of that was late in the year when Parish and Shiel came back in and we lost all accountability around the ball.

They did concede a few points less from stoppage than we did but we scored more and ended up with up a net positive from clearances and stoppages by about 0.8 of a point. Whereas they were -2.2 despite conceding less, they also generated less. So despite their contested numbers they aren’t more effective.

If the price is two first rounders, then we should stay far away. That’s for generational talents like Cameron.

 

[crackers65]

Rowell was in brownlow form before his knee and shoulder injuries. Three years on and he is close to that form again. He will keep improving for another couple of years and that is scary good. The problem is what it will take to get him. Two top ten draft picks would be a lot but a ready to go star is inviting.

 

[jdstorm]

I think that does go a long way defensively though. GC were top few for defensive 1 v 1 wins last year and a lot of that stems from pressure at the coal face when you’ve got even numbers with 6-6-6. While we were last. Though I imagine a lot of that was late in the year when Parish and Shiel came back in and we lost all accountability around the ball.

They did concede a few points less from stoppage than we did but we scored more and ended up with up a net positive from clearances and stoppages by about 0.8 of a point. Whereas they were -2.2 despite conceding less, they also generated less. So despite their contested numbers they aren’t more effective.

If the price is two first rounders, then we should stay far away. That’s for generational talents like Cameron.

I’d expect that (two firsts) to be the cost. Can’t see him costing less than Shai Bolton. Josh Dunkley and Dan Houston went for a similar price in recent years.

I really like Rowell as a player and could absolutely justify paying 2 firsts for him under the right circumstances. Ie contending team good depth needs a contested possession upgrade.

I don’t think that Essendon is currently in a place where that trade would improve the team as a whole

 

[cavalcade]

I’d expect that (two firsts) to be the cost. Can’t see him costing less than Shai Bolton. Josh Dunkley and Dan Houston went for a similar price in recent years.

I really like Rowell as a player and could absolutely justify paying 2 firsts for him under the right circumstances. Ie contending team good depth needs a contested possession upgrade.

I don’t think that Essendon is currently in a place where that trade would improve the team as a whole

Hate to say it but I agree with you. We have started to build through the draft and we need to continue on this course.
Having said that, we do need to find a good rover to replace Merrett and Rowell would be an excellent choice. A Merrett replacement is vital in the near future.

 

[JayJ20]

overall talent level isn’t as important as how talents work together as a whole.

We have 3 former AA mids in the side (Sheil, Parish, Merrett) and we can’t play them together because they are too small at stoppage.

their weakness compound in an easily exploitable way. Rowell has the same flaws.

Reid is midsized, can kick and gets goals. He’s a much easier fit in most sides than Rowell. They don’t really belong in the same conversation

Whoa. I'm genuinely curious on how you came to the conclusion that Rowell's weakness contributes in an exploitable way around stoppages. In what way does he have the same flaws as Shiel, Parish and Merrett? I really disagree with that.

If the argument is that he is aerially ineffective like the guys we have, then ok. If it's his outside game, kicking skills or a lack of a genuine second position, then I understand (though pure elite inside mids are generally supported by others with those skills). But stoppages, work rate and competitiveness in stoppages? Absolutely nothing like those guys. Night and day. He's more Cripps and Oliver around stoppages. An absolute beast with the ability to go from stoppage to stoppage all day and win the contested football.

Reid is obviously a better option for us, but he may not want to leave West Coast any time soon so you have to do your due diligence.

 

[Agronomus]

I would add that what he is elite at isn't as easily stopped as what Parish is elite at even though at a surface level people think they are both "clearance beasts".
Parish's gift is how well he reads the ball off the ruckmans hands and his strong hands at ground level, but he is not strong over the ball which is why he is mainly effective at centre clearances when it is 6-6-6 or in open space on the flanks. As soon as it is a general stoppage or contested footy in tight teams are able to bully him off the ball.

Teams have tried to run with rowell but he is too strong in contact (We saw this with Caldwell, he held him well for about a half but once he started to fatigue from the constant physicality Rowell had a big influence). Doesnt matter how many players are at a stoppage Rowell can win the physical contest.

Who else was in our midfield though? May as well start against them with Caldwell, Durham &Tsatas and let em learn the hard way. Builds character

 

[jdstorm]

Whoa. I'm genuinely curious on how you came to the conclusion that Rowell's weakness contributes in an exploitable way around stoppages. In what way does he have the same flaws as Shiel, Parish and Merrett? I really disagree with that.

If the argument is that he is aerially ineffective like the guys we have, then ok. If it's his outside game, kicking skills or a lack of a genuine second position, then I understand (though pure elite inside mids are generally supported by others with those skills). But stoppages, work rate and competitiveness in stoppages? Absolutely nothing like those guys. Night and day. He's more Cripps and Oliver around stoppages. An absolute beast with the ability to go from stoppage to stoppage all day and win the contested football.

Reid is obviously a better option for us, but he may not want to leave West Coast any time soon so you have to do your due diligence.

He’s a beast in contested play but out

Whoa. I'm genuinely curious on how you came to the conclusion that Rowell's weakness contributes in an exploitable way around stoppages. In what way does he have the same flaws as Shiel, Parish and Merrett? I really disagree with that.

If the argument is that he is aerially ineffective like the guys we have, then ok. If it's his outside game, kicking skills or a lack of a genuine second position, then I understand (though pure elite inside mids are generally supported by others with those skills). But stoppages, work rate and competitiveness in stoppages? Absolutely nothing like those guys. Night and day. He's more Cripps and Oliver around stoppages. An absolute beast with the ability to go from stoppage to stoppage all day and win the contested football.

Reid is obviously a better option for us, but he may not want to leave West Coast any time soon so you have to do your due diligence.

Honestly I read the contested 1 on 1 star wrong. I thought it meant how a player performs tackling in space. In practice it’s more of a marking stat by the looks of it.

But yeah absolute gun stoppage player. Probably the best in the afl at it and still has 7-8 years of it.

 

[IHurley]

If Caldwell, Tsatas, Durham and Hobbs all improve this year (especially Tsatas) then I would have thought the need for a Rowell - as much I like him - is reduced.

Our forward line is still desperately in need of another quality small and quality tall and our backline is held together by sticky tape.

 

[Vindicater]

So track watchers.

Any idea on who the final list signing will be?

 

[Duckworth]

So track watchers.

Any idea on who the final list signing will be?

Baldwin has been reported as doing well.

 

[Vindicater]

So lets say we shit the bed again and Merrett says enough is enough and Draper wants out as well.

Do we go full nuclear or hold the line and try to replace Merrett and Draper with mature players?

We could do something like

Retire/Delist: Goldstein, Shiel, Setterfield and Laverde
Trade Merrett and the Saints 2nd rounder back to the Saints for their first and future first.
Let Draper go for a first round pick via compo.

We could go into next years draft with a haul of #5, 7, 8 and 9 potentially along with 26?

Silly season is upon us so obviously this is discussion only, not what I want.