Recruiting AFL Trade & Free Agency XII - 💰💰💰

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Spoiler: 2024 Draft Order

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Your game does not include forward projections as far as the probability of getting better players long term is higher if we have more picks inside the top 50 next year.
We took 5 blokes in the 2020 ND.

Sure but why not both. Get the picks inside 50, and then keep drafting after for the list spots you have. I don't understand holding non AFL standard players without long term upside.

According to this you have a 9% chance of drafting a 200 gamer after pick 51.

Lottery tickets or close to a sure thing? What AFL draft picks are actually worth

Lottery tickets or close to a sure thing? What AFL draft picks are actually worth

www.foxsports.com.au

There is close to a zero percent chance of Guelfi or Menzie reaching 200 games and likely none of us would like that outcome if they did. Take the 9%.

So we did take 5. Though 2 NGA's is a little different than drafting late. Taking 4 talls was never going to produce a good result.

 

[ant555]

Sure but why not both. Get the picks inside 50, and then keep drafting after for the list spots you have. I don't understand holding non AFL standard players without long term upside.

According to this you have a 9% chance of drafting a 200 gamer after pick 51.

Lottery tickets or close to a sure thing? What AFL draft picks are actually worth

Lottery tickets or close to a sure thing? What AFL draft picks are actually worth

www.foxsports.com.au

There is close to a zero percent chance of Guelfi or Menzie reaching 200 games and likely none of us would like that outcome if they did. Take the 9%.

So we did take 5. Though 2 NGA's is a little different than drafting late. Taking 4 talls was never going to produce a good result.

It is about how many picks you take in that area. That was my original point. There maybe be zero chance of those guys getting to 200 games but Menzie is one of those lets take a chance guys. He was MSD.
Also the stats go down the further back you go.
I am all for looking at a few picks at the cack end. Four or so is fine. My point is about taking 5 or 6 or 7 based on the amount of players people where wanting to move on.
You can not say for sure that Menzie does not return to his 2023 form and kicks 25 odd goals.
Anyway. Had my say. You like a gamble. I prefer less gamble.

 

[jdstorm]

You are still coming up with your own scenarios which is fine but the reason I say it will be a quiet period stands. We are not in a position to do a lot. I am sure they are on the front foot but I think the reality is going to be a lot different. They will be looking at a lot of options.

They could trade out of 28 and get a couple of later picks for sure. That is certainly on the cards.
I think 2025 and 2026 will be where we see more player movement. As they can set up better for it.As much as us supporters do not like it the 2020 rebuild start has not come off and we have botched a few long term contracts so it is going to be a few extra years on the build.

From my view the list is set to turn over about 6-8 non rookie spots.

Hepp, Goldy, Hind out
Replaced by 2 FRPs + vet ruck

I’d expect 3 of that group of not best 22 players to be moved. Not sure who exactly or what for but assuming it’s minimal value. Most likely future assets because like you have said this draft is considered very good and trading into it is hard.

Then you have Weid/Setters/Kelly who seem like placeholders for “can we find a better free agent” or salary dump.

If Essendon finds a small positive gain in each of these minor moves I think they will have been said to have won trade week even if they don’t do anything splashy

 

[ghostdog]

The issue is how many do you take? At some stage you have to play the percentage and keep some spots for next year when you are picking more inside the top 50. Leaving Roberts out as he was not in the pick 60 plus then yes you can find a rookie or SSP or mid season draft spot that works out but you do not want to be taking too many or you are basically setting youself up to fail. The numbers I mentioned are not based on what you would call good players. Twenty percent chance of playing 50 games and that is for the back end of the ND. It gets worse from there. That is a one in five chance the bloke you pick will play 50 games.
Not sure I am running with those odds personally. Seems to be more of a Dodoro move.

This is probably going to become an Essendon BF board dis, isn't it.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

It is about how many picks you take in that area. That was my original point. There maybe be zero chance of those guys getting to 200 games but Menzie is one of those lets take a chance guys. He was MSD.
Also the stats go down the further back you go.
I am all for looking at a few picks at the cack end. Four or so is fine. My point is about taking 5 or 6 or 7 based on the amount of players people where wanting to move on.
You can not say for sure that Menzie does not return to his 2023 form and kicks 25 odd goals.
Anyway. Had my say. You like a gamble. I prefer less gamble.

I like certainty more than a gamble. If I had my way we'd have JHF and Harley Reid or if JHF returned home from us too, Sheezel and Humphrey. I've been calling for us to tank for a decade and we are no better off, certainly haven't developed a winning culture but have way worse talent than we should. Now we are staring down Tasmania's addition and I'd like a truck load more young talent before that storm comes to town and we are stuffed for another 5 years.

We've taken about 10 mid season and SPP players and pulled Martin, Durham, D'Ambrossio and Saad looks a great level too. That's way better ratio than we've done with top 50 picks over the last ten years. We just have to keep turning over the middling talents.

 

[Yoda_]

If my understanding is correct, Red Black and Blue is more excited about bottoming out (fully) and getting kids in than mellowing in mediocrity with what we have?

 

[Squeaky]

That's just crazy enough to work

"Its a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off"

 

[Red Black and Blue]

If my understanding is correct, Red Black and Blue is more excited about bottoming out (fully) and getting kids in than mellowing in mediocrity with what we have?

I like targeting when to tank, we were shit, the core of the side didn't have particular upside and the talent on display at the very pointy end was exceptionally elite for a few seasons. The timing was right.

Right now there isn't much value in it, even talent spread for the next few years. So you'll have to hit more often rather than consolidate really elite talent in a few players to excel in this period.

 

[Yoda_]

I like targeting when to tank, we were shit, the core of the side didn't have particular upside and the talent on display at the very pointy end was exceptionally elite for a few seasons. The timing was right.

Right now there isn't much value in it, even talent spread for the next few years. So you'll have to hit more often rather than consolidate really elite talent in a few players to excel in this period.

Its a precarious position we are in. The elite talent we have stocked isn't progressing as well as we would like, the draft capital we have isn't in abundance and the players with trade value no one seems to want to move on.

 

[jdstorm]

Its a precarious position we are in. The elite talent we have stocked isn't progressing as well as we would like, the draft capital we have isn't in abundance and the players with trade value no one seems to want to move on.

Teams are pretty short sited in a lot of ways. If we just said **** defense and played fast. Scored a bunch more points against bad teams and made the 8 out players would have much more value.

Not saying we should do that but more that oppinions can change fast with some minor success

Just think about Peter Wrights value after a 50 goal season vs this year where goals per game wasn’t that different. Virtually the same player but vastly different narative

 

[Yoda_]

Teams are pretty short sited in a lot of ways. If we just said **** defense and played fast. Scored a bunch more points against bad teams and made the 8 out players would have much more value.

Not saying we should do that but more that oppinions can change fast with some minor success

Just think about Peter Wrights value after a 50 goal season vs this year where goals per game wasn’t that different. Virtually the same player but vastly different narative

oh absolutely, look at the team

We had Caldwell, Durham, Martin really break out into almost stars of the completion but reliable AFL players. Add AA squad player Langford, (almost) AA squad Redman, a fit and firing Parish and Wright back in the form you mentioned and we all of a sudden look a much better team overall.

 

[ant555]

If my understanding is correct, Red Black and Blue is more excited about bottoming out (fully) and getting kids in than mellowing in mediocrity with what we have?

And my point is you do not do that when you’re looking at taking 6 to 10 pick’s outside of the top 50.

 

[Yoda_]

And my point is you do not do that when you’re looking at taking 6 to 10 pick’s outside of the top 50.

Agreed, we are stuck in an endless rut.

Is time to get creative. Trade our future first for two second rounders after a Kako bid maybe, trade out Hobbs, or Tsatas, or Shiel, or Parish. trade Stringer for a third rounder. Get creative. Think outside the box cause as much as it pains me to say this, we need to go backwards before we go forwards hence my preference to play Bryan over Goldstein, to trade Stringer, to trade Parish

 

[faible]

If you wanna get Reid to us, don't show him around ****ing Port Melbourne.

Port Melbourne is where Hird is now right?

Rosa meeting Reid in Port Melbourne… Hird in Port Melbourne… Hird and Reid to EFC in 2026?

 

[ant555]

Agreed, we are stuck in an endless rut.

Is time to get creative. Trade our future first for two second rounders after a Kako bid maybe, trade out Hobbs, or Tsatas, or Shiel, or Parish. trade Stringer for a third rounder. Get creative. Think outside the box cause as much as it pains me to say this, we need to go backwards before we go forwards hence my preference to play Bryan over Goldstein, to trade Stringer, to trade Parish

It is easy to say think outside the box but you have to have someone else outside the box with you.
No one is interested in Parish and so far no one is looking at Stringer.
That is why I have said this year May be a bit quiet.
It may only be Laverde and Stringer for third round picks.
Everyone keeps saying trade Parish but there is no one interested.
Every other club is looking to trade futures to get in this year.
Shiel has no interest.
Why trade Hobbs or Tsatas ? You are not getting premium value.
How about we do not make too many desperate moves. Do what we can and then attack the next couple of years knowing there will be some stuff to untangle and we have picks in the draft.

 

[Vindicater]

Stringer and #8 to Gold Coast for #6 and Rosa

 

[ant555]

Stringer and #8 to Gold Coast for #6 and Rosa

Can they even trade Rosas if they have released him ?

 

[Bjchan13]

It is easy to say think outside the box but you have to have someone else outside the box with you.
No one is interested in Parish and so far no one is looking at Stringer.
That is why I have said this year May be a bit quiet.
It may only be Laverde and Stringer for third round picks.
Everyone keeps saying trade Parish but there is no one interested.
Every other club is looking to trade futures to get in this year.
Shiel has no interest.
Why trade Hobbs or Tsatas ? You are not getting premium value.
How about we do not make too many desperate moves. Do what we can and then attack the next couple of years knowing there will be some stuff to untangle and we have picks in the draft.

I think you're right, will be fairly quiet. Anyone that asked for a trade id definitely let go for a reasonable price.

Our stance when it comes to the trade period should be letting all clubs know that we will listen to offers on any player on our list. If they want to chase someone we'll take it to the player and see what we can get done.

We are in no position to force contracted players out against their will like Collingwood did with Treloar and Grundy.

 

[Vindicater]

Can they even trade Rosas if they have released him ?

I don't think they have fully released him right? It is confusing, most articles still only say they have told him he is free to look elsewhere which to me reads like they will trade him.

 

[Zach Package]

I don’t think clubs can just terminate a contract without cause and let Rosas go as a DFA. If he’s not required and he’s on decent coin he would have to be traded for something. It might be Rosas and a future 4th for a 4th rounder (aka nothing), but it would have to be a trade of some sort.

 

[bombreys]

I don’t think clubs can just terminate a contract without cause and let Rosas go as a DFA. If he’s not required and he’s on decent coin he would have to be traded for something. It might be Rosas and a future 4th for a 4th rounder (aka nothing), but it would have to be a trade of some sort.

Can’t they just pay him out? Isn’t that what we did with James Stewart?

 

[EnolaGay]

The topic at hand in relation to Scott was that he was clashing with Merrett (allegedly) over a percieved notion that he was being steadfast in not giving Lav and Stringer, and possibly other players, more years and not bowing to player's demands (including Merrett's).

One trait we've seen in the past few coaches is them doing the opposite. Thus, Scott would be aware of that and where they've ended up and in knowing that the opposite of what we've been doing is more likely to ensure his survival it is therefore understandable that he would be as ruthless, to the point that our players are not used to it (and will percieve it as "mean"), and is something we need to back in as a group.

Not sure just doing the opposite of previous coaches is a sound strategy to success.

 

[EnolaGay]

Main list has 35 players. Rookie list 3 and no Cat Bs.
Minimum 2 of J.Davey, Goldstein, Kelly, Setterfield and Weiderman need to be moved (to to pasture or rookie list) - to give the 3 picks for the draft.

A lesser-known father-son may get a look as a cat B if they get through the draft. I'd also have a look at an oversized American.

How about this guy?

 

[JayJ20]

Why aren't we hearing more noise around chasing Rosas? We should be front and centre with the advantage we have.

 

[Zach Package]

Can’t they just pay him out? Isn’t that what we did with James Stewart?

They have to pay him the entirety of what he’s owed if they pay him out and delist him.

Trade absolves them of that