Recruiting AFL Trade & Free Agency XII - 💰💰💰

[Lore]

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Spoiler: 2024 Draft Order

 

[jdstorm]

We already have moneyballed tho, in two ways. We've unearthed some gems from the MSD/PSD and we've gone after some positional need players through FA while keeping our draft hand.

In my opinion what we should be prioritising now is development of youth, selection integrity and luring elite players.

Why not both?

building depth for cheap helps all of those goals.

Helps selection integrity by having more good players competing for spots

Helps create opportunities to upgrade the list with stars via 2 for 1 trades since you have the depth to cover the loss of that extra player

Develop youth? If you’re not bringing in older journeyman types your just adding more youth that counts right

 

[BrunoV]

We already have moneyballed tho, in two ways. We've unearthed some gems from the MSD/PSD and we've gone after some positional need players through FA while keeping our draft hand.

In my opinion what we should be prioritising now is development of youth, selection integrity and luring elite players.

You can't have Moneyballed anything if the result is a set of pieces that don't work together. That's the antithesis of Moneyball, even if you spend nothing. Spending nothing and being bad isn't Moneyball, it is being 'poor and shit' instead of 'just shit'.

 

[Keystone agony]

I'd be fine with a straight swap.

If we're not willing to offer 2 years, I don't think you can expect to get a whole lot back.

I also get the feeling we might just prefer him to leave (nothing to back this up other than an inkling) - he doesn't really fit with what it looks like we're trying to do.

No. Not at all.

The point of not offering him the deal is to get him to ask to leave because he creates structural imbalance, is not playing at a standard that justifies the structural imbalance, produces a structural imbalance our side is not close to being able to absorb and is otherwise not reliable and is not setting standards we'd want from a veteran player.

Unless hes being an absolute horrible terror off the field, which it doesnt appear he is

Then id rather have kept him, than trade him for bake beans

I dont buy the structural imbalance narrative. 2 tall, Langford, Stringer with 3 smaller nippier forwards (Kako) to be one and hopefully Davey next year another

 

[Keystone agony]

Shiel and Stringer for Stone, F2, 53, and 74 is fair imo

Our 2 are contracted, Stone isnt. Some of 53, 74 likely wont even get used by GWS

Pick 10: Bid Lombard
Pick 11: Bid S.Marshall
Pick 12: Allen/Armstrong/M.Reid/Smilie
Pick 13: KAKO BID = 970 points


31, 53, 72(74) = 858 Points

 

[eth-dog]

Shiel and Stringer for Stone, F2, 53, and 74 is fair imo

Our 2 are contracted, Stone isnt. Some of 53, 74 likely wont even get used by GWS

Pick 10: Bid Lombard
Pick 11: Bid S.Marshall
Pick 12: Allen/Armstrong/M.Reid/Smilie
Pick 13: KAKO BID = 970 points


31, 53, 72(74) = 858 Points

Shiel and Stringer for Stone and 52 is fine. No need to be greedy. Maybe ask for 55 as well

 

[Orange crush]

Shiel and Stringer for Stone, F2, 53, and 74 is fair imo

Our 2 are contracted, Stone isnt. Some of 53, 74 likely wont even get used by GWS

Pick 10: Bid Lombard
Pick 11: Bid S.Marshall
Pick 12: Allen/Armstrong/M.Reid/Smilie
Pick 13: KAKO BID = 970 points


31, 53, 72(74) = 858 Points

Shiel and Stringer for a couple of picks in the 50s.

 

[Keystone agony]

Shiel and Stringer for Stone and 52 is fine. No need to be greedy. Maybe ask for 55 as well

I dont think thats being greedy

Id much prefer to have just kept Stringer and stump up 2 years or 1 with a trigger if thats what were getting for Stringer

 

[eth-dog]

Shiel and Stringer for a couple of picks in the 50s.

Eh. Depends. I'd say if Stone elects to come to us and we chuck in salary we get him on top.

 

[Armoooo]

Kako seems to be outside the top ten to most. Do saints just bid out of spite?

Or are they unlikely to bid at all? What's are the thoughts from those watching closer than I am.

Honestly, I think it's fearmongering.

We have Butler, Higgins and a promising player in Collard as small forwards so it isn't the most pressing need, especially if he's a bit of a reach at pick 8.

We desperately need 3 new starting centre square mids. After Steele all we really have is Windhager who looks promising, but probably not elite.

SOS will no doubt do everything in his power to convince Rosa that we'll bid. If I were Rosa, I'd be doing everything in my power to make SOS fear that you wouldn't match a pick 8 bid and see who blinks first.

Last year the saints traded pick 17 down one spot on draft night to GWS when they had the pick after us and they sent us a future second in return.

I wouldn't be shocked to see us make the same deal on draft night.

Saints would get pick 7, pick 9 and a future second.

Essendon get pick 8, Kako and maintain their future first.

Essendons goal should be to get 3 first round picks over the next two years, preferably with two of them coming this year.

 

[Orange crush]

Eh. Depends. I'd say if Stone elects to come to us and we chuck in salary we get him on top.

Salary changes things … but our finances are in good order

 

[Donflicted]

Honestly, I think it's fearmongering.

We have Butler, Higgins and a promising player in Collard as small forwards so it isn't the most pressing need, especially if he's a bit of a reach at pick 8.

We desperately need 3 new starting centre square mids. After Steele all we really have is Windhager who looks promising, but probably not elite.

SOS will no doubt do everything in his power to convince Rosa that we'll bid. If I were Rosa, I'd be doing everything in my power to make SOS fear that you wouldn't match a pick 8 bid and see who blinks first.

Last year the saints traded pick 17 down one spot on draft night to GWS when they had the pick after us and they sent us a future second in return.

I wouldn't be shocked to see us make the same deal on draft night.

Saints would get pick 7, pick 9 and a future second.

Essendon get pick 8, Kako and maintain their future first.

Essendons goal should be to get 3 first round picks over the next two years, preferably with two of them coming this year.

Thank you for your sensible input

 

[gdaytiger2001]

Every year I hear the money ball phrase bandied about especially at this time of year. Money ball has nothing to do with finding bargain basement players for no purpose other than being cheap. It is based on sabre metrics (statistical analysis) where teams will overlook certain statistics (flaws) in light of a clear advantage that suits the teams structure which should come at a lower cost. for the A’s it was on base percentage. The closest thing to a moneyball team was Hawthorn in the late 00s when it discovered a clear advantage of picking left footed good kicking players to suit its game plan. That’s money ball also the As money ball strategy is so overrated the success of the As was to do with the 3 hof pitchers that were acquired before money ball. None of the players associated with money ball actually went on to decent careers apart from swisher who was traded to the Yankees.

 

[Vindicater]

I dont think thats being greedy

Id much prefer to have just kept Stringer and stump up 2 years or 1 with a trigger if thats what were getting for Stringer

I'd rather trade him for a pick in the 50s.

 

[jdstorm]

Every year I hear the money ball phrase bandied about especially at this time of year. Money ball has nothing to do with finding bargain basement players for no purpose other than being cheap. It is based on sabre metrics (statistical analysis) where teams will overlook certain statistics (flaws) in light of a clear advantage that suits the teams structure which should come at a lower cost. for the A’s it was on base percentage. The closest thing to a moneyball team was Hawthorn in the late 00s when it discovered a clear advantage of picking left footed good kicking players to suit its game plan. That’s money ball also the As money ball strategy is so overrated the success of the As was to do with the 3 hof pitchers that were acquired before money ball. None of the players associated with money ball actually went on to decent careers apart from swisher who was traded to the Yankees.

That’s not really true.

The point of moneyball was that the league was stupid and you could get decent players using stats because other teams were dinosaurs.

AFL is closer to solved then baseball in the 90s was so there isn’t that same advantage in the sport because of that

 

[Old Campaigner]

Kako seems to be outside the top ten to most. Do saints just bid out of spite?

Or are they unlikely to bid at all? What's are the thoughts from those watching closer than I am.

He only needs to be the top rated small forward by a club who needs a small forward

 

[gdaytiger2001]

That’s not really true.

The point of moneyball was that the league was stupid and you could get decent players using stats because other teams were dinosaurs.

AFL is closer to solved then baseball in the 90s was so there isn’t that same advantage in the sport because of that

Huh, i take it you watched the movie, MOneyball: the book the art of winning the unfair game explains all. Anyway you can't convince them all i guess.................

 

[BrunoV]

That’s not really true.

The point of moneyball was that the league was stupid and you could get decent players using stats because other teams were dinosaurs.

AFL is closer to solved then baseball in the 90s was so there isn’t that same advantage in the sport because of that

Moneyball is the application of sabermetrics based on a low budget. In that sense it doesn't apply to AFL because of the salary cap. It also scales up. The Red Sox used the same principles to buy the more expensive players with even better stats and won the World Series, or so the legend goes.

As a principle Moneyball for AFL is really about putting a complimentary set of players together to execute a style of play / system. We don't see it that often because there is so little variation in how the game is played. Interestingly enough we've seen it from Hawthorn twice, now. We've seen it with Roos at Sydney and probably Hardwick at Richmond, too.

Where there would be space for a sabremetrics-like analysis is having a look at cap spending and working out where to spend big, and if there are any patterns. Most obvious would be that paying money to a ruck has probably worked once (i.e. Gawn in 2021). I suspect that talls are generally overrated, as good as they look on paper. There is my hobby horse, the possession accumulators. Having more than 3 guns mids is likely overrated.

 

[Saddlemanbags]

Can't wait to see what pick 60 brings us for big stringer who'll probably kick 50 next year but 10 if he stays

 

[Bjchan13]

Honestly, I think it's fearmongering.

We have Butler, Higgins and a promising player in Collard as small forwards so it isn't the most pressing need, especially if he's a bit of a reach at pick 8.

We desperately need 3 new starting centre square mids. After Steele all we really have is Windhager who looks promising, but probably not elite.

SOS will no doubt do everything in his power to convince Rosa that we'll bid. If I were Rosa, I'd be doing everything in my power to make SOS fear that you wouldn't match a pick 8 bid and see who blinks first.

Last year the saints traded pick 17 down one spot on draft night to GWS when they had the pick after us and they sent us a future second in return.

I wouldn't be shocked to see us make the same deal on draft night.

Saints would get pick 7, pick 9 and a future second.

Essendon get pick 8, Kako and maintain their future first.

Essendons goal should be to get 3 first round picks over the next two years, preferably with two of them coming this year.

 

[gdaytiger2001]

Moneyball is the application of sabermetrics based on a low budget. In that sense it doesn't apply to AFL because of the salary cap. It also scales up. The Red Sox used the same principles to buy the more expensive players with even better stats and won the World Series, or so the legend goes.

As a principle Moneyball for AFL is really about putting a complimentary set of players together to execute a style of play / system. We don't see it that often because there is so little variation in how the game is played. Interestingly enough we've seen it from Hawthorn twice, now. We've seen it with Roos at Sydney and probably Hardwick at Richmond, too.

Where there would be space for a sabremetrics analysis is having a look at cap spending and working out where to spend big, and if there are any patterns. Most obvious would be that paying money to a ruck has probably worked once (i.e. Gawn in 2021). I suspect that talls are generally overrated, as good as they look on paper. There is my hobby horse, the possession accumulators. Having more than 3 guns mids is likely overrated.

Brilliant explanation, far better than i have put forward

 

[cAsEy_18]

Can't wait to see what pick 60 brings us for big stringer who'll probably kick 50 next year but 10 if he stays

It’d be kinda cool if we kept Stringer next year and he kicked 45 goals for us. He could lead us all the way to 12th!

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Essendon has flagged considerable interest in Stone, a 189cm goal kicker, who has overcome five hamstring injuries and disc and arthritis problems in his back.


Oh Jesus

W
T
A
F

 

[Saddlemanbags]

I figured it out btw the AFL's been paying Essendon to stay bad (DODO now Scott), so poorer funded clubs can make money, since the AFL is starved for cash or whatever. Since they brought Hird in they got punished, every club dopes and they just scapegoated us.

 

[jdstorm]

Huh, i take it you watched the movie, MOneyball: the book the art of winning the unfair game explains all. Anyway you can't convince them all i guess.................

I’m pretty familiar with us sports and while I haven’t read that book specifically I have gathered enough from various podcasts I have listened to.

Stupidity was a huge part of it and what teams valued like the RBI stat which is no longer used due to irrelevance.

People started calling the NBA 3pt revolution Moreyball after Rockets GM Darryl Morey and moneyball where the idea was the same. Most Teams were playing the game wrong and there was a competitive advantage to playing the game right(efficiently) and using analytics

NFL teams now play more on 4th and short because analytics say it’s a better probability than punting…. Anyway I digress

Stupidity or perhaps more kindly ignorance is a huge part of the moneyball story. Moneyball becomes less relevant when the game is “solved” and teams are competing to get closest to the ideal solution.

 

[Keystone agony]

Honestly, I think it's fearmongering.

We have Butler, Higgins and a promising player in Collard as small forwards so it isn't the most pressing need, especially if he's a bit of a reach at pick 8.

We desperately need 3 new starting centre square mids. After Steele all we really have is Windhager who looks promising, but probably not elite.

SOS will no doubt do everything in his power to convince Rosa that we'll bid. If I were Rosa, I'd be doing everything in my power to make SOS fear that you wouldn't match a pick 8 bid and see who blinks first.

Last year the saints traded pick 17 down one spot on draft night to GWS when they had the pick after us and they sent us a future second in return.

I wouldn't be shocked to see us make the same deal on draft night.

Saints would get pick 7, pick 9 and a future second.

Essendon get pick 8, Kako and maintain their future first.

Essendons goal should be to get 3 first round picks over the next two years, preferably with two of them coming this year.

If you bid at 8, we just trade into the Future 1st (Clubs are queuing up for a lesser pick), even your fans have suggested they would trade their F1 for it. Just means we likely get 2 1st next year instead of 2 this year