Recruiting AFL Trade & Free Agency XII - 💰💰💰

[Lore]

Quick links: Player Contract Status | Draft Watch 2023 | AFLW Draft, Trade & Sign

The embedded resources below are kept up to date by the trade board mods (as much as possible – we are human after all). Enjoy!

Spoiler: 2024 Draft Order

 

[BrunoV]

By trading out mature aged players like Shiel, Lav and Stringer ? and not offering Kelly more years?

I never got around to responding to an earlier post, it was something about list changes in the last 2 years.

This is what I would have done that is not a matter of hindsight, I have a pretty clear history expressing these positions.

2023:

• delist: Heppell, Guelfi, Tippa, Montgomeri, Lord and anyone else I've forgotten about who didn't survive for 2024.
• trade / FA comp (whatever it is): Parish, Stringer, BZT (which I will claim because I have not rated him for years)
• 2 year deal: McGrath. I was not really advocating the trading of McGrath but I would not have given him a 6 year deal. If someone wants to offer him something crazy enough for band 1 comp then I've got an extra first round pick. In reality band 2 comp is about right as that all you get for lock down small defenders who are average by foot.
• the deal he was asking for to get him to stay: D'Ambrosio
• 1 year: Voss, Snelling
• I would not have signed: Gresham
• I was not happy with Duursma being singed but there was nothing else for the BZT trade. So I will acknowledge that I've underestimated Duursma but do not rule out that there was nothing else of value to get for BZT.
• Not-delisted: Munkara. He had 1 more year as a free hit on the Cat B list and in reality that could likely have been extended into years 4 and 5 on application to the AFL.

2024: mainly focused on what I would be different / creation of list spots.

• delist: Weidemann, Baldwin, Hunter, Menzie, Kelly, Hind and probably Snelling
• trade: Tsatas (who I've seen enough of not to rate), Hobbs (see Tsatas), Martin, Wright
• shop: Cox.
• 1 year: Wanganeen, Laverde (who played some excellent games this season when in an intercept/mid-sized role), Jones

Note that Stringer, Heppell and Guelfi are already gone for 2024 in the above scenario. If I don't have Duursma because I stuffed that up I might need Cox (which is why he is a shop and not a trade) but I also have D'Ambrosio. I like Perkins and would likely have given him his deal at the time he was signed. I'd have aggressively pursued XOH and Stone and, for better or worse, would almost certainly have both by 11 October 2024 (most likely at the end of 2023).

There would be at least 5-7 key players in that list you will not have factored into my thinking when it seems like all that I would do is what is currently happening.

 

[thebigboy]

Would you trade Perkins, Cox and Reid to move up to 7 from pick 9?

I definitely would, it would be like erasing the 2020 draft and starting again

So you would trade 3 players + 9 to move up 2 spots in the draft?!

They might not have lived up to expectations, but trading 3 players to move up 2 spots is ludicrous to be polite.

 

[naraku]

A few Geelong supporters(probably hopeful) had the theory we will be in to help Oliver get to Geelong.

Melb get: 9
Geelong get: Oliver
Essendon get: 15(G) and 28(M) or future pick.

I think there was more to it, but that was the basics.
Does that effect Kako too much?

It would give is 15,28,31, 37*

*37 depending on Stinger and/or Shiel of course.

 

[boncer34]

A few Geelong supporters(probably hopeful) had the theory we will be in to help Oliver get to Geelong.

Melb get: 9
Geelong get: Oliver
Essendon get: 15(G) and 28(M) or future pick.

I think there was more to it, but that was the basics.
Does that effect Kako too much?

It would give is 15,28,31, 37*

*37 depending on Stinger and/or Shiel of course.

We'd lose 15 and part of 28 to a bid.

 

[BrunoV]

Well they finally go the guy out who they kept backing every year did they not ? weather you rate Scott as a coach or not it does not change the fact that the list Manager is Matthew Rosa and this is "his" first trade / draft period as list manager. It is a new set of eyes. It is a new guy with a big say.

You have this very disingenuous way of arguing when you're trapped.

How many posts could I find in your posting history discussing the historical movement of Dodoro out of a decision making role to the point that all he has been recently is a contract negotiations agent?

What does it matter that we got rid of the individual if we continue to act in the same way? Don't get me wrong, Dodoro has an extremely bad read of the game and was utterly unfit to be a list boss (a snake oil salesman who would not be in the game if Kevin Sheedy wasn't who he was), and I am happy that he is finally gone, as a matter of principle, but we are not stalled in this trade period, without the flexibility to do anything, because of 1 thing Dodoro has done or failed to do. You know that. You just don't want to admit that it the people we are relying to turn this around that made the calls.

Do you really believe that Matt Rosa, first time list boss, is even in a position to turn this around? He doesn't even have the authority.

 

[cAsEy_18]

A few Geelong supporters(probably hopeful) had the theory we will be in to help Oliver get to Geelong.

Melb get: 9
Geelong get: Oliver
Essendon get: 15(G) and 28(M) or future pick.

I think there was more to it, but that was the basics.
Does that effect Kako too much?

It would give is 15,28,31, 37*

*37 depending on Stinger and/or Shiel of course.

Yeah unless I’m missing something, that sounds awful for us.

We’re trying to hopefully use pick 9 and then get Kako. And if a bid comes earlier than pick 9, it would seem the most likely scenario is trading out pick 9 on draft night for a future 1st. Not ideal, but do what you gotta do.

That ^ does nothing for us. All it does is move pick 9 back which pretty much ensures it will be eaten up by a Kako bid. No future first.

 

[Zach Package]

If the blues were prepared to offer their first and 2nd rounder next year for a pick this year then we should have rug pulled Hawthorn’s rug pull and offered them a better return for it.

 

[boncer34]

If the blues were prepared to offer their first and 2nd rounder next year for a pick this year then we should have rug pulled Hawthorn’s rug pull and offered them a better return for it.

What if a bid for Kako doesn't come before pick 9?

 

[Zach Package]

What if a bid for Kako doesn't come before pick 9?

Then you end up neutral ish but with one less future second rounder?

 

[boncer34]

Then you end up neutral ish but with one less future second rounder?

Personally I'd give up the 2nd rounder to have the first round talent to the club a year earlier.

 

[Keystone agony]

(I think) it was Scott who said Tsatas had great flexibility and could be played on a wing or either flank. I do certainly agree he was not ready for inside mid time.

I don't think it will depend on form - it didn't for Roberts. And we were screaming out for a small defender and ball use out of the d50.

Going off this year and last, I see Kako playing majority VFL.

Roberts was a 4th rounder for a reason. 4th rounders dont play much

We didnt need small defenders. Kelly, Mcgrath, Redman, Martin didnt cop an injury. Then we also had Heppell in and out aswell. Roberts also came into the AFL side as a winger and played a fair bit of wing early in the VFL season acc to VFL watchers iirc

Your unfortunately comparing apples to oranges, you just cant do that in this case

 

[Zach Package]

Personally I'd give up the 2nd rounder to have the first round talent to the club a year earlier.

I can see the argument for both sides but I would have done that early, got it out of the way and then seen what else can be done with such a good hand.

We’re already death riding Carlton, we may as well get something out of it.

 

[Keystone agony]

A few Geelong supporters(probably hopeful) had the theory we will be in to help Oliver get to Geelong.

Melb get: 9
Geelong get: Oliver
Essendon get: 15(G) and 28(M) or future pick.

I think there was more to it, but that was the basics.
Does that effect Kako too much?

It would give is 15,28,31, 37*

*37 depending on Stinger and/or Shiel of course.

No point doing this

Think weve already gone over this multiple times

Keep pick 9 and its a good chance like 60% occuring before Kako bid. If the Kako bid occurs pre 9 then you have your scenarios in place of moving that pick to an F1 and maybe more (pending which team)

See F1 and F2 for mid table blues used for hawks 14

 

[Keystone agony]

I can see the argument for both sides but I would have done that early, got it out of the way and then seen what else can be done with such a good hand.

We’re already death riding Carlton, we may as well get something out of it.

We may have that same opportunity but with a look to see if Kako is bid on or not

Also you always give more for the current by trading the future, because you can keep doing that over and over again if there is a willing party

Plus pick 9 is a great range, we could well be getting someone in our top 3-5 order at that range (Smilie, Murphy Reid, Armstrong)

 

[JayJ20]

View attachment 2137836

What has more value? Peter Wright or our F1?

If we are going down the full rebuild path (which I believe we should tbh) then this is probably the best case scenario we could get at this time.

I would do it in a hearbeat. It's essentially Peter Wright and an F3 for a top 5 pick. We'd be crazy to say no.

This would be a win/win trade for both sides. Melbourne get a KPF + an F3 for sliding back 4 picks in a deep draft. We get an extra top 5 pick + Kako without losing our F1.

 

[JayJ20]

A few Geelong supporters(probably hopeful) had the theory we will be in to help Oliver get to Geelong.

Melb get: 9
Geelong get: Oliver
Essendon get: 15(G) and 28(M) or future pick.

I think there was more to it, but that was the basics.
Does that effect Kako too much?

It would give is 15,28,31, 37*

*37 depending on Stinger and/or Shiel of course.

That's an awful deal for us.

We don't need Geelong to make a better deal directly with Melbourne.

 

[Keystone agony]

I never got around to responding to an earlier post, it was something about list changes in the last 2 years.

This is what I would have done that is not a matter of hindsight, I have a pretty clear history expressing these positions.

2023:

• delist: Heppell, Guelfi, Tippa, Montgomeri, Lord and anyone else I've forgotten about who didn't survive for 2024.
• trade / FA comp (whatever it is): Parish, Stringer, BZT (which I will claim because I have not rated him for years)
• 2 year deal: McGrath. I was not really advocating the trading of McGrath but I would not have given him a 6 year deal. If someone wants to offer him something crazy enough for band 1 comp then I've got an extra first round pick. In reality band 2 comp is about right as that all you get for lock down small defenders who are average by foot.
• the deal he was asking for to get him to stay: D'Ambrosio
• 1 year: Voss, Snelling
• I would not have signed: Gresham
• I was not happy with Duursma being singed but there was nothing else for the BZT trade. So I will acknowledge that I've underestimated Duursma but do not rule out that there was nothing else of value to get for BZT.
• Not-delisted: Munkara. He had 1 more year as a free hit on the Cat B list and in reality that could likely have been extended into years 4 and 5 on application to the AFL.

2024: mainly focused on what I would be different / creation of list spots.

• delist: Weidemann, Baldwin, Hunter, Menzie, Kelly, Hind and probably Snelling
• trade: Tsatas (who I've seen enough of not to rate), Hobbs (see Tsatas), Martin, Wright
• shop: Cox.
• 1 year: Wanganeen, Laverde (who played some excellent games this season when in an intercept/mid-sized role), Jones

Note that Stringer, Heppell and Guelfi are already gone for 2024 in the above scenario. If I don't have Duursma because I stuffed that up I might need Cox (which is why he is a shop and not a trade) but I also have D'Ambrosio. I like Perkins and would likely have given him his deal at the time he was signed. I'd have aggressively pursued XOH and Stone and, for better or worse, would almost certainly have both by 11 October 2024 (most likely at the end of 2023).

There would be at least 5-7 key players in that list you will not have factored into my thinking when it seems like all that I would do is what is currently happening.

Can only really look at 2024 because this is the first time ive seen it outlined like this from you

Are you accepting pick 40 for Tsatas now if that is the offer?
Similarly are you accepting pick 45 for Hobbs if that is the offer?

Martin? Wow that is the surprise. What do you need to move him on? Whats the reasoning there?
2MP? What do you need to move him on

 

[jdstorm]

I do like the optimism, but I think people are putting too much into Kako. He will be subject to the Brad Scott 'he's not ready' treatment for at least his first couple of years. Under Scott, first year players have played in 28 (including 9 as sub) of a possible 161 games across two seasons (so 14 a season with 4.5 of those as sub). That's with 4 & 3 selections. Those figures multiply if you want to add the 0 games from MSD picks and 0 games from RD picks across both years.

It's a huge leap just assuming Kako will be best 22.

With Tsatas, I think the only way he gets a look in is through injury. Even then (in the event of an injury), does he come in ahead of Setterfield? Or is it like the Hayes situation where Weideman (the senior player) is ahead?

Tasatas is a year 3 top 5 pick.

The only reason he didn’t get a bigger opportunity last year was because he couldn’t physically play inside mid and that’s the only position he can play. This issue was worsened by our other mids being small and offering no physical protection.

Physically after this offseason his body will hopefully be pretty close to that of a JHF type player from this past season. He’s (Tsatas) has had a cracking year in the VFL and Given the lack of physicality in our midfield I’d say he’s the first picked or 2nd after Durham and others are fighting for scraps.

It’s hard to know what our mix looks like due to potential trades happening. But that’s where I suspect they are planning for things to go.

As far as Scott vs Rookies.
I think context is important.

Others have covered the position thing and how SFs are normally ready to go vs other positions. I’ll add that we are trading away a player to create a best 22 opportunity in the forward line for a player to take. Given the other SFs on the list and Kako’s reputation it would be very surprising if he didn’t get an opportunity and do well with it

 

[katana]

Physically after this offseason his body will hopefully be pretty close to that of a JHF type player from this past season.

not a chance in hell that this is the case. jhf is a powerhouse tsatas has never shown anything like that.

 

[bombreys]

Roberts was a 4th rounder for a reason. 4th rounders dont play much

We didnt need small defenders. Kelly, Mcgrath, Redman, Martin didnt cop an injury. Then we also had Heppell in and out aswell. Roberts also came into the AFL side as a winger and played a fair bit of wing early in the VFL season acc to VFL watchers iirc

Your unfortunately comparing apples to oranges, you just cant do that in this case

You can't have it both ways - you can't say selection is form-dependent and in the next breath say 'oh yeah but he was a 4th rounder'.

Anyway, agree to disagree - my opinion/belief is that, based on this year and last, Kako will play more VFL than AFL next year.

 

[JayJ20]

I would do it in a hearbeat. It's essentially Peter Wright and an F3 for a top 5 pick. We'd be crazy to say no.

This would be a win/win trade for both sides. Melbourne get a KPF + an F3 for sliding back 4 picks in a deep draft. We get an extra top 5 pick + Kako without losing our F1.

On this, our standard approach is "keep Wright, let him become even more out of favour at Essendon and then let him go for nothing."

We like to hoard.

Approach Melbourne about this, see if they're willing. If they are, tell Peter Wright "would you be open to going to Melbourne as they have a spot for you in their best 22."

I'd even upgrade F3 to F2 to get this done and ask for late picks to help us match a Kako bid. We can then select Lalor at 5 (6 after Ashcroft bid) if he is available and Kako. Kako + Lalor both damaging on the scoreboard. If not Lalor, then we have plenty of other choices.

 

[Keystone agony]

You can't have it both ways - you can't say selection is form-dependent and in the next breath say 'oh yeah but he was a 4th rounder'.

Anyway, agree to disagree - my opinion/belief is that, based on this year and last, Kako will play more VFL than AFL next year.

His form/ability wasnt good enough

He only got a game due to injury

You cant say your comparing apples to apples with Kako and another small forward in the last 2 years for us that was a top 15 pick

Davey a lesser rated small forward even played 10 games, surely that is a better comparison?

 

[jdstorm]

I never got around to responding to an earlier post, it was something about list changes in the last 2 years.

This is what I would have done that is not a matter of hindsight, I have a pretty clear history expressing these positions.

2023:

• delist: Heppell, Guelfi, Tippa, Montgomeri, Lord and anyone else I've forgotten about who didn't survive for 2024.
• trade / FA comp (whatever it is): Parish, Stringer, BZT (which I will claim because I have not rated him for years)
• 2 year deal: McGrath. I was not really advocating the trading of McGrath but I would not have given him a 6 year deal. If someone wants to offer him something crazy enough for band 1 comp then I've got an extra first round pick. In reality band 2 comp is about right as that all you get for lock down small defenders who are average by foot.
• the deal he was asking for to get him to stay: D'Ambrosio
• 1 year: Voss, Snelling
• I would not have signed: Gresham
• I was not happy with Duursma being singed but there was nothing else for the BZT trade. So I will acknowledge that I've underestimated Duursma but do not rule out that there was nothing else of value to get for BZT.
• Not-delisted: Munkara. He had 1 more year as a free hit on the Cat B list and in reality that could likely have been extended into years 4 and 5 on application to the AFL.

2024: mainly focused on what I would be different / creation of list spots.

• delist: Weidemann, Baldwin, Hunter, Menzie, Kelly, Hind and probably Snelling
• trade: Tsatas (who I've seen enough of not to rate), Hobbs (see Tsatas), Martin, Wright
• shop: Cox.
• 1 year: Wanganeen, Laverde (who played some excellent games this season when in an intercept/mid-sized role), Jones

Note that Stringer, Heppell and Guelfi are already gone for 2024 in the above scenario. If I don't have Duursma because I stuffed that up I might need Cox (which is why he is a shop and not a trade) but I also have D'Ambrosio. I like Perkins and would likely have given him his deal at the time he was signed. I'd have aggressively pursued XOH and Stone and, for better or worse, would almost certainly have both by 11 October 2024 (most likely at the end of 2023).

There would be at least 5-7 key players in that list you will not have factored into my thinking when it seems like all that I would do is what is currently happening.

This a temper tantrum of Dodorro levels with the same incompetence.

trading a whole bunch of players for unders because the list doesn’t function is just…..

On top of that what feels like a vindictive need to throw away people you don’t like… ugh

 

[Keystone agony]

On this, our standard approach is "keep Wright, let him become even more out of favour at Essendon and then let him go for nothing."

We like to hoard.

Approach Melbourne about this, see if they're willing. If they are, tell Peter Wright "would you be open to going to Melbourne as they have a spot for you in their best 22."

I'd even upgrade F3 to F2 to get this done and ask for late picks to help us match a Kako bid. We can then select Lalor at 5 (6 after Ashcroft bid) if he is available and Kako. Kako + Lalor both damaging on the scoreboard. If not Lalor, then we have plenty of other choices.

You do realise 2MP has to want to leave right?

 

[bombreys]

Tasatas is a year 3 top 5 pick.

The only reason he didn’t get a bigger opportunity last year was because he couldn’t physically play inside mid and that’s the only position he can play. This issue was worsened by our other mids being small and offering no physical protection.

Physically after this offseason his body will hopefully be pretty close to that of a JHF type player from this past season. He’s (Tsatas) has had a cracking year in the VFL and Given the lack of physicality in our midfield I’d say he’s the first picked or 2nd after Durham and others are fighting for scraps.

It’s hard to know what our mix looks like due to potential trades happening. But that’s where I suspect they are planning for things to go.

As far as Scott vs Rookies.
I think context is important.

Others have covered the position thing and how SFs are normally ready to go vs other positions. I’ll add that we are trading away a player to create a best 22 opportunity in the forward line for a player to take. Given the other SFs on the list and Kako’s reputation it would be very surprising if he didn’t get an opportunity and do well with it

There's very few JHF-moulds out there, but I know what you mean. Who do you have Tsatas coming in for? From the team that finished last year, the only possibility I can see is maybe Hobbs (who was the sub).

I'm not sure where the small forwards being ready to go early comes from. The Davey twins are entering their third year and can't break into the side.