Recruiting AFL Trade & Free Agency XII - 💰💰💰

[Lore]

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Spoiler: 2024 Draft Order

 

[Mercurial89]

You dont have to give up draft capital for some of the best players in the game and we probably have the greatest access to cap space in the comp

Rayner
LDU
Brayshaw
Ed Richards
Fogarty
Starcevich

ect

Eh, I don't believe in just grabbing a FA because we could, has to be the right player targeted as part of a greater list strategy.

If the list strategy involved walking the enigma ruckman in FA for comp picks to inject talent into the list as part of a designated core I don't mind not bringing anyone in if it works.
Your posting of us "having" to bring someone in just doesn't sit right.

Do we think Scott will go with a youth movement or just pick the best side available despite age?

I think he has every right to pick any player on the list if he thinks it’s gonna be more chance of winning the game.

If tsatas and Hobbs are playing vfl with Shiel and setterfield in the side are we going to blame Scott for that?

My opinion is, Rosa sets the direction with the list and Scott try’s to win games.

That's why losing Hep, Stringer are positive moves and it's a shame we couldn't ditch a few more.
If the coach is wedded to certain players that don't help the long term future of the club then ship them out and force him to adjust.
I've seen it work, it's not a reflection on the ability of the coach to lead to success, but sometimes even the best coaches need to be saved from themselves for the good of the team.

 

[jdstorm]

Right. More important to have someone maybe qualify for FS than win a flag.

i think one of those outcomes is within reach next season and it’s not “win a flag”

Untangling the mid mix is probably Rosa’s trickiest job. Be interesting to see how he goes.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

It shows that stats need to be looked at deeper

I guess it also depends how you determine a strong midfield or not? What stats do you use?

Geelong also rotate more through there and have less secondary positions for some of their mids

Hobbs should be in the team all of next year, we need to find out about him, hes been ready to go since day 1 and just hasnt been able to find a spot. Hopefully 30-40% CBAs and 30-50% starting fwd

But what Bruhn is doing in 60% TOG is impressive

I looked at the stats late in the year when they were high up for total clearance wins, but it was only because they had a lot of stoppages in their games. They were near last for clearance wins vs opponents, it was like -4.6 per game or something similar.

Hobbs hasn't been in because football has in a lot of ways moved past that type of player. Neale is an outlier and you really have to be special to make it in that role. Hobbs needs like another 4kgs on his quads while improving his aerobic output. Doable but until he does that, he's going to be behind all the others.

 

[Keystone agony]

Eh, I don't believe in just grabbing a FA because we could, has to be the right player targeted as part of a greater list strategy.

If the list strategy involved walking the enigma ruckman in FA for comp picks to inject talent into the list as part of a designated core I don't mind not bringing anyone in if it works.
Your posting of us "having" to bring someone in just doesn't sit right.

The other option is to sit at the bottom for the next 4-5 years (which is what North are doing)

Free agents are crucial. You get known products for 7 years and dont have to trade a top 10 pick for them

So you get the 10th best kid in the draft and a 7 year gun, just by paying a pretty penny

Sure you dont want another ruck FA if youve already got a ruck. Or an immobile KPD if youve already got 2 immobile KPDs

 

[eth-dog]

i think one of those outcomes is within reach next season and it’s not “win a flag”

Untangling the mid mix is probably Rosa’s trickiest job. Be interesting to see how he goes.

You said you'd rather trade Caldwell than Shiel.

 

[Keystone agony]

I looked at the stats late in the year when they were high up for total clearance wins, but it was only because they had a lot of stoppages in their games. They were near last for clearance wins vs opponents, it was like -4.6 per game or something similar.

Hobbs hasn't been in because football has in a lot of ways moved past that type of player. Neale is an outlier and you really have to be special to make it in that role. Hobbs needs like another 4kgs on his quads while improving his aerobic output. Doable but until he does that, he's going to be behind all the others.

I know clubs dont just look purely at the differentials in clearances ect

Lets say your coaching a team and im coaching against you, at every stoppage you have 5 players, but i have 8. Then theoretically i should win clearances pretty convincingly, but may still lose the game more often than not

From memory clearance is a great metric compared to other stats for outcome

 

[Red Black and Blue]

I know clubs dont just look purely at the differentials in clearances ect

Lets say your coaching a team and im coaching against you, at every stoppage you have 5 players, but i have 8. Then theoretically i should win clearances pretty convincingly, but may still lose the game more often than not

From memory clearance is a great metric compared to other stats for outcome

Which means they don't value the clearance, which is fair enough, I don't really either. As long as you defend it well. I think the majority of the last 15 or so premiership winners weren't top 4 for clearance in the comp. Hawks maybe 1 year of their reign. Brisbane last year. A few others. It's all about not being damaged from it. On average the difference in scores from clearance between the best and worst hasn't been much, it's transition and turnover where the best kill you.

But if your not impacting there, not impacting on the outside, you aren't anything to desire. I'd prefer probably 350 players in the AFL currently to Tanner Bruhn.

 

[Keystone agony]

Which means they don't value the clearance, which is fair enough, I don't really either. As long as you defend it well. I think the majority of the last 15 or so premiership winners weren't top 4 for clearance in the comp. Hawks maybe 1 year of their reign. Brisbane last year. A few others. It's all about not being damaged from it. On average the difference in scores from clearance between the best and worst hasn't been much, it's transition and turnover where the best kill you.

But if your not impacting there, not impacting on the outside, you aren't anything to desire. I'd prefer probably 350 players in the AFL currently to Tanner Bruhn.

Thats 19 players from each team

He avg 5.7 clearances from 60% TOG, no one else is doing that, hes very good on the inside

Anyway this was all about the weak 2020 draft and without looking i came up with 3 names post pick 10 in a sarcastic comment that Dodoro shouldve picked (2 wernt even anywhere near that spot in the draft)

 

[faible]

Which means they don't value the clearance, which is fair enough, I don't really either. As long as you defend it well. I think the majority of the last 15 or so premiership winners weren't top 4 for clearance in the comp. Hawks maybe 1 year of their reign. Brisbane last year. A few others. It's all about not being damaged from it. On average the difference in scores from clearance between the best and worst hasn't been much, it's transition and turnover where the best kill you.

But if your not impacting there, not impacting on the outside, you aren't anything to desire. I'd prefer probably 350 players in the AFL currently to Tanner Bruhn.

I’d be intrigued whether hardball gets has a strong correlation to winning football matches.

Clearances and contested possession is a bit of a mish-mash thing where you can have a guy like Parish who excels at reading ruck taps or loose balls get good numbers, but would you put him up against a Petracca or Dangerfield in a must-win stoppage in a GF and expect him to be able to extract it?

We don’t really have a player that can generate those hardball gets that I’d say by eye are pretty crucial in big games.

 

[jdstorm]

You said you'd rather trade Caldwell than Shiel.

I like Jye as a player and probably wouldn’t trade him

Purely from a value standpoint Caldwell is just as redundant as Sheil/Parish/Hobbs but has significantly more trade value

As a value play it does make sense.

 

[faible]

I like Jye as a player and probably wouldn’t trade him

Purely from a value standpoint Caldwell is just as redundant as Sheil/Parish/Hobbs but has significantly more trade value

As a value play it does make sense.

I’d trade Parish of that lot if we’re trading a midfielder with currency.

Caldwell’s age profile suits the bulk of the list, and he’s got a combative edge and more natural willingness to be defensive.

Parish is a good AFL player, but our midfield mix is a bit off and doesn’t necessarily allow us to get both the best out of Parish and the best out of the midfield.

 

[doug85]

Id throw a juicy offer to Starcevic as a FA

 

[FootyGuru]

I like Jye as a player and probably wouldn’t trade him

Purely from a value standpoint Caldwell is just as redundant as Sheil/Parish/Hobbs but has significantly more trade value

As a value play it does make sense.

Caldwell is the toughest out of the 4, and has the most ability to go forward if required. Hobbs and Caldwell take the tackle and get their hands free, Merrett parish and Shiel play hot potato and get rid of the ball before the physical pressure comes. They are a terrible combination.

Parish has to go, soft, doesn’t tackle, and runs one way. Isn’t overly damaging per possession either but boy he can find it. He’s also very handy in cb

 

[jdstorm]

I’d trade Parish of that lot if we’re trading a midfielder with currency.

Caldwell’s age profile suits the bulk of the list, and he’s got a combative edge and more natural willingness to be defensive.

Parish is a good AFL player, but our midfield mix is a bit off and doesn’t necessarily allow us to get both the best out of Parish and the best out of the midfield.

In terms of what suits our needs you’d rather trade Parish + Sheil.

But also they have far less trade value. Sheil as a free agent next summer and Parish on a large long contract that teams might be less willing to take on.

But also like you said Parish(also Sheil) is a good player that the mid mix doesn’t help.

So if you traded a higher trade value player and you could get significantly more in return including enough to rebalance the mid mix and and get some help elsewhere. That helps parish and now you’ve further enhanced the positive value of the trade beyond the initial return.

 

[bombersim]

I looked at the stats late in the year when they were high up for total clearance wins, but it was only because they had a lot of stoppages in their games. They were near last for clearance wins vs opponents, it was like -4.6 per game or something similar.

Hobbs hasn't been in because football has in a lot of ways moved past that type of player. Neale is an outlier and you really have to be special to make it in that role. Hobbs needs like another 4kgs on his quads while improving his aerobic output. Doable but until he does that, he's going to be behind all the others.

One of Hobbs’ biggest problems is that he compounds being physically slow with being mentally slow. It’s unlikely he will get any faster (nigh impossible), so he needs to make faster decisions. My bugbear is when he gets the ball and instead of moving it quickly he craps himself and turtles the ball, inevitably getting pinned for HTB.

 

[Sphynx]

North has definitely amassed an intimidating collecting of midfield players but it all has to work together. So it doesn't really matter to me that their 5th an 6th ranked midfielders are great individuals, it is the combination of players that is important.

In that way I think it is arguable that West Coast have the makings of a complimentary group that would equal North. They have at least 3 players with top end midfield attributes available from that group of players and they're different. H. Reid is the obvious one, pure ball hunter with the strength to work through a stoppage and use the ball as well as anyone while doing it, a generational talent. Hewitt has elite speed and skill in that role as more of a breakaway / Rozee-style of on-baller - I would say he has better potential in this role than any of the North mids (who are more rounded). Ginby has elite physical capacity in terms of his size, athleticism and aggression, he arguably the regista who holds everything together, he will certainly do the grunt work. I'd say Ginby is better at the things he is good at than any of the North mids (who are again more rounded players). Chesser is a pretty well balanced player, very much in the mould of someone like Warner or Shuey and could play alongside just about any combination.

If Reid and Hewitt realise their potential as players, for example, how many sides would have 2 midfielders in one team that can do that level of damage coming out of a clearance? It's a work in progress. I have not done a deep dive on West Coast's players so I cannot say whether Hall has elite abilities, for example. Is Culley a guy who could play inside at a high enough level?

Have you watched much of McKercher at all in the midfield? He averaged 6 clearances a game at u18 level, a lot of which were breakaway clearances on foot. He’s rapid, particular past the 20m mark.

Further Wardlaw runs 2.93 20m and then there’s LDU….

I think it trumps Hewett and Reid personally in terms of athleticism, but that’s just me.

 

[Call Me Cake]

Caldwell is just as redundant as

Please don't post while sitting next to a microwave.