- Apr 19, 2008
- 2,572
- 371
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
- Other Teams
- Celtics/Bills/Tottenham/Red Sox
New Orleans looks like a great play IMO.
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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
All things NFL/College 2014-15 Season.
- Thread starter Chism
- Start date
- Tagged users None
Nelso
Brownlow Medallist
Saints win
Jets -1.5
Cowgirls -5.5
Seahawks HT/FT
Jets -1.5
Cowgirls -5.5
Seahawks HT/FT
PHX
Quarterback Style
Always the way.
And no less screwed by Bowling Green losing by a point.
For tommorrow I have two where I don't understand the odds:
I don't see how the Vikings are -1.5 for tomorrow. The home team should get 3 by default and in my eyes Carolina are no better than the Vikes. Taking the Vikings straight out at $1.80 to be safe as Cam Newton loves close losses.
Also Kansas City. Going by the odds Oakland are the pick but I'm not buying it. Oakland have beaten Jacksonville and San Diego at home. Kansas are 5-0 and have won 3 of those on the road. They are the better team comfortably. Winning by 10 should not be an issue for the Chiefs. Chiefs -9.5 @ $2.10.
All other games petrify me.
- Apr 19, 2008
- 2,572
- 371
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
- Other Teams
- Celtics/Bills/Tottenham/Red Sox
I've got
New Orleans ML
Oakland +9.5
Cincy ML (Putting quite a bit more on this to cover the above 2 if they don't get up)
New Orleans ML
Oakland +9.5
Cincy ML (Putting quite a bit more on this to cover the above 2 if they don't get up)
_Brainiac_
Debutant
Just dropped the final leg of a 12 leg college multi. Fuming. Just as well I had the account on Goldstone in the 4th at Randwick on Saturday.
Jacksonville +9.5 and Over 42.5 in the Carolina/St. Louis game.
Teaser of Green Bay -2.5 and Miami PK
Teaser of Green Bay -2.5 and Miami PK
PHX
Quarterback Style
Dolphins -6.5. A must win for the Dolphins with the Pats and Cinci coming up. The Dolphins are also coming off a bye week while the Bills played OT last week. -7 and I wouldn't have taken it but 6.5 is enough.
Baltimore +1. Possible bias alert. The Steelers finally won a game but have proven nothing and were noncompetitive in every other game so far while Baltimore have been competitive in every game except Denver and are 3-3. Baltimore also have history on their side winning the past 4 vs Pittsburgh. Happy to be able to take a point as insurance as I think the Ravens win.
Baltimore +1. Possible bias alert. The Steelers finally won a game but have proven nothing and were noncompetitive in every other game so far while Baltimore have been competitive in every game except Denver and are 3-3. Baltimore also have history on their side winning the past 4 vs Pittsburgh. Happy to be able to take a point as insurance as I think the Ravens win.
balmainforever
Dibs
- Sep 4, 2003
- 25,750
- 30,607
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Other Teams
- Balmain, GreenBay, Edmonton, Celtic
- Moderator
- #83
Denver -5.5
Baltimore H2H
San Diego -7.5
Carolina -6.5
Baltimore H2H
San Diego -7.5
Carolina -6.5
kaiserchief13
Hall of Famer
- Jul 12, 2011
- 35,512
- 26,354
- AFL Club
- West Coast
- Other Teams
- Eagles, Lakers, Bayern, Trojans
Jax +7.5
Browns+10/under 45.5
Chicago to win
Chiefs -6.5
Browns+10/under 45.5
Chicago to win
Chiefs -6.5
- Jul 13, 2012
- 43,673
- 21,198
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Charlotte Hornets, Chelsea, Striker
kaiserchief13
Hall of Famer
- Jul 12, 2011
- 35,512
- 26,354
- AFL Club
- West Coast
- Other Teams
- Eagles, Lakers, Bayern, Trojans
Yeah a shit week for me. Jags are just so bad. Chicago are done now. Houston was so close to running the fumble in right at the end! Bloody tackled at the 1 yd line!!!!
Also had 49ers at the line but that was the one I was least confident about! Go figure!
Next week is looking really good. I like the Panthers, Chiefs, Patriots, Seahawks and Saints all to cover.
On a 14-1 run ATS so I thought I'd start posting my picks.
San Francisco 49er (-14.5) @1.95
New York Giants (+5.5) @1.95
Detroit Lions (-3) @1.94
New Orleans Saints (-11) @1.97
New England Patriots (-6) @1.96
Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) @2.08
Cincinnati Bengals (-5) @1.95
Denver Broncos (-11) @2.00
Green Bay Packers (-9.5) @2.11
GL guys.
San Francisco 49er (-14.5) @1.95
New York Giants (+5.5) @1.95
Detroit Lions (-3) @1.94
New Orleans Saints (-11) @1.97
New England Patriots (-6) @1.96
Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) @2.08
Cincinnati Bengals (-5) @1.95
Denver Broncos (-11) @2.00
Green Bay Packers (-9.5) @2.11
GL guys.
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
- 50,055
- 40,654
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Calgary Flames, Man Utd
San Fran v Jacksonville - First TD - Vernon Davis
- Jul 13, 2012
- 43,673
- 21,198
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Charlotte Hornets, Chelsea, Striker
Nice. Looks like you're continuing your good form.
What kind of analysis do you do? If you dont mind me asking that is.
7-2 +4.89
The Detroit play I'm a little disappointed in. They should have won by 10+ but turnovers cost them.
The Pats were flat in the 1st half but recovered nicely dominating the 2nd half.
Chiefs play lost by 2 pts after they went for a FG instead of a TD in the final seconds. That was a bummer.
Broncos completely outclassed the Redskins with 4 TDs in the 4th.
The rest of the plays were quite easy. I couldn't believe the flood of money for the Vikings line; found that one pretty simple. Managed to get on GB again -7.5 @ 2.10
Pretty good day overall.
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
- 50,055
- 40,654
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Calgary Flames, Man Utd
Nice work....I'm just getting into the NFL.
Couple of nice little collects over week 7 & 8.
Keep up the good work!
I can't give too much away, but my method involves long term statistical analysis of teams using many different stats to create power ratings for each team (this took a while to get right). I then factor in other things like home/away advantage, matchups, fatigue, injuries, motivation etc. Then I just look for the value.
Suffice to say I spend many hours each week to get my results.
I can't give too much away, but my method involves long term statistical analysis of teams using many different stats to create power ratings for each team (this took a while to get right). I then factor in other things like home/away advantage, matchups, fatigue, injuries, motivation etc. Then I just look for the value.
Suffice to say I spend many hours each week to get my results.
Are you putting up your tips for week 9 soon?
Thursday NFL I've taken Cincinnati -1 @1.97 which is no longer available. You can still get -2.5 @ 1.97 if you shop around which is still value IMO. I wouldn't take anything under 1.90 for -2.5
Sunday NFL picks will be posted on the weekend.
Sunday NFL picks will be posted on the weekend.
^^^Noice.
15-12
Great work there Substance.
For this week: Jets +6.5, Pittsburgh +7, Tennessee -1, and a teaser of Carolina -2.5/Over 38.
That Cin play totally lost because of the refs. ...yeah
YTD 7-3-0 +3.89
Sunday NFL
ATS plays
Cowboys -9.5 @1.97
Saints -5.5 @1.95
Seahawks -14.5 @2.00
Patriots -6.5 @1.97
Colts -1 @2.15
Chiefs -3 @1.95
Raiders -2 @1.97
O/U plays
Saints vs Jets over 45.5 @1.95
Falcons vs Panthers over 43 @1.95
Buccaneers vs Seahawks over 41 @2.02
YTD 7-3-0 +3.89
Sunday NFL
ATS plays
Cowboys -9.5 @1.97
Saints -5.5 @1.95
Seahawks -14.5 @2.00
Patriots -6.5 @1.97
Colts -1 @2.15
Chiefs -3 @1.95
Raiders -2 @1.97
O/U plays
Saints vs Jets over 45.5 @1.95
Falcons vs Panthers over 43 @1.95
Buccaneers vs Seahawks over 41 @2.02
