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Strategy Another "Ben Reid should stay forward" argument
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cleomenes
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Playing Ben Reid forward gives us the best balanced side with the players we have. Reid and Cloke as key forwards, Brown and Keeffe as key backs. White or Lynch as the forward/ruck. This is a very strong tall player group. Added to this, we have a very good bunch of players for the middle of the ground. I am assuming that Grundy is in for a dominant year.
This is an arrangement that could deliver a premiership. The parts of the equation that are not filled in are the forward and back flankers. In defence we have thrown away one outstanding player, and have another coming back from a knee. For this year to be a success, Toovey has to hit the ground running, and Williams has to improve enough on last year to cover the loss of Shaw. Maxwell or Goldsack have to be better than they were collectively this year. Sinclair could be the defense bolter for 2014. Someone has to be able to kick out. I can't see who.
Up forward, Fasolo and Elliot have to improve enough to be continual threats rather than intermittent ones. The other forward slot could belong to any one of the many small forwards we have.
As long as Reid stays forward, then all we need to be a threat next year is for:
1. The key players to stay fit
2. Reasonable improvement from some of our young players
3. The return of the dynamic intensity of the 2010 finals campaign at the right time.
These are all possible, although not assured, but I don't think it works if Reid goes back.
This is an arrangement that could deliver a premiership. The parts of the equation that are not filled in are the forward and back flankers. In defence we have thrown away one outstanding player, and have another coming back from a knee. For this year to be a success, Toovey has to hit the ground running, and Williams has to improve enough on last year to cover the loss of Shaw. Maxwell or Goldsack have to be better than they were collectively this year. Sinclair could be the defense bolter for 2014. Someone has to be able to kick out. I can't see who.
Up forward, Fasolo and Elliot have to improve enough to be continual threats rather than intermittent ones. The other forward slot could belong to any one of the many small forwards we have.
As long as Reid stays forward, then all we need to be a threat next year is for:
1. The key players to stay fit
2. Reasonable improvement from some of our young players
3. The return of the dynamic intensity of the 2010 finals campaign at the right time.
These are all possible, although not assured, but I don't think it works if Reid goes back.
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We need to pack some heat up forward there is no doubt about that.
Last year Hawthorn got almost half of their goals from 4 193+ players in Roughead, Franklin, Gunstan and Hale. We got about a third from Cloke, Reid and forward resting rucks.
Hawthorn's 'tall' defenders only did well in a pack situation and I think people are getting a little obsessed about KPDs as the lynchpins of a defensive set-up. Geelong at their best had Scarlett and Taylor, (and Lonergan) but it's really the Mackies, Milburns, Hunts etc who make an effective defence. Similarly a good smallish forward line can make a significant difference, eg. Ballantyne, Walters, Mayne.
People equating a forward or defensive line with KP stock I think make an error. But for us we definitely need another tall forward more than we need another tall defender.
Last year Hawthorn got almost half of their goals from 4 193+ players in Roughead, Franklin, Gunstan and Hale. We got about a third from Cloke, Reid and forward resting rucks.
Hawthorn's 'tall' defenders only did well in a pack situation and I think people are getting a little obsessed about KPDs as the lynchpins of a defensive set-up. Geelong at their best had Scarlett and Taylor, (and Lonergan) but it's really the Mackies, Milburns, Hunts etc who make an effective defence. Similarly a good smallish forward line can make a significant difference, eg. Ballantyne, Walters, Mayne.
People equating a forward or defensive line with KP stock I think make an error. But for us we definitely need another tall forward more than we need another tall defender.
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Reid had played some great games vs Hawkins since the 2011 GF loss... Almost single handedly won our games vs Geelong for us.... Well, pendles helped I guess.
I still like Reid forward. We don't have any one close to his good-ness to play FF. We have frost and Keeffe up the other end ego are at least adequate.
I still like Reid forward. We don't have any one close to his good-ness to play FF. We have frost and Keeffe up the other end ego are at least adequate.
[quote="4#Didak#4, post: 30813636, member:
White changes the mix a bit but, I still believe having two key marking forwards & a third ruck/fwd is the way to go. It has worked beautifully for Hawthorn. White is mobile so he is not a bad fit.[/quote]
The Leigh Brown role was two forwards and Brown as a resting ruck/fwd. This is why neither Dawes nor Lynch managed the role well IMO. both were expect to be both a key fwd and a resting ruck/forward, which meant that we still had two defenders with Cloke. I still think two forward and resting ruck fwd is the way to go and am happy with whichever combination works.
White changes the mix a bit but, I still believe having two key marking forwards & a third ruck/fwd is the way to go. It has worked beautifully for Hawthorn. White is mobile so he is not a bad fit.[/quote]
The Leigh Brown role was two forwards and Brown as a resting ruck/fwd. This is why neither Dawes nor Lynch managed the role well IMO. both were expect to be both a key fwd and a resting ruck/forward, which meant that we still had two defenders with Cloke. I still think two forward and resting ruck fwd is the way to go and am happy with whichever combination works.
But time stops around Bontempelli? I respect that Ben Lennon is probably the better forward choice, but bontempelli is more versatile and can be played in more positions. Besides, Can't we get both of them?
I was purely talking as a forward from the little footage i have seen.
Overall as players its anyones guess how they will pan out.
I reckon I'll be happy with anyone Hine reads out that is over 180cm.
I've said it before. Trust in Hiney
Has anyone ever google image searched Hinesy? He really doesn't take a very good photo.. A Shocker in fact.
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The major problem with our forwad line wasn't our forwards it was our hopeless ball carry and delivery. We were slow in transition and almost late 1990's Collingwood in delivery. That's why Young was recruited, that's why we will miss Shaw & Thomas and that's why we have traded away our short term premiership prospects IMO. Reid isn't the answwer up forward but moving him there does give us another gap at CHB. Keeffe is a good prospect but be he is not currently a top line AFL CHB. Reid on the other hand might be the best CHB in the comp if he stays fit. Meanwhile if we can recuite pace and footskills we can win a flag but if we don't we can't.
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Reid went forward in round 10 against the Lions to kick 3 goals with a final score of 100 V 51 (win).
In the first 9 rounds with Reid in defence we have an average score against of 100.78 and our average score 92.33. Then when you look at the last 14 rounds where Reid often went forward, the average score against us drops to 72.71 and our average score rises to 98.57.
Now looking specifically at the 8 games where Reid went forward to kick goals, the average score against us was 70.88 and our average score 110.38. We didn't have one score in those games less than 100 and only one where the opposition scored more than 100.
Bris 51/100 (w)
Carl 77/118 (w)
Adel 84/111 (w)
GWS 66/106 (w)
Ess 54/133 (w)
Syd 71/100 (w)
WCE 39/101 (w)
Haw 125/114 (l)
There are 4 of our 5 repeat games in this bunch, namely Carlton, Essendon, Sydney and Hawthorn. The results of the first encounters with these clubs earlier in the season were as follows:
Carl 100/117 (w)
Haw 145/90 (l)
Syd 102/55 (l)
Ess 121/75 (l)
In those 4 games where Reid was in defence we conceded on average 117 points and only scored on average 84.25. In the repeat games with Reid forward we conceded on average 81.75 and scored on average 116.25.
This idea that we rob Peter to pay Paul is not borne out by the facts. In fact with Reid forward not only did we score more we also conceded less.
In the first 9 rounds with Reid in defence we have an average score against of 100.78 and our average score 92.33. Then when you look at the last 14 rounds where Reid often went forward, the average score against us drops to 72.71 and our average score rises to 98.57.
Now looking specifically at the 8 games where Reid went forward to kick goals, the average score against us was 70.88 and our average score 110.38. We didn't have one score in those games less than 100 and only one where the opposition scored more than 100.
Bris 51/100 (w)
Carl 77/118 (w)
Adel 84/111 (w)
GWS 66/106 (w)
Ess 54/133 (w)
Syd 71/100 (w)
WCE 39/101 (w)
Haw 125/114 (l)
There are 4 of our 5 repeat games in this bunch, namely Carlton, Essendon, Sydney and Hawthorn. The results of the first encounters with these clubs earlier in the season were as follows:
Carl 100/117 (w)
Haw 145/90 (l)
Syd 102/55 (l)
Ess 121/75 (l)
In those 4 games where Reid was in defence we conceded on average 117 points and only scored on average 84.25. In the repeat games with Reid forward we conceded on average 81.75 and scored on average 116.25.
This idea that we rob Peter to pay Paul is not borne out by the facts. In fact with Reid forward not only did we score more we also conceded less.
I think you really need to take into account the opponents and how they were playing rather than looking at scores and where Reid played. Hawthorn were really the only team that played well against us in the back half. Essendon, Sydney and WCE were deflated, Adelaide, Brisbane and GWS had poor seasons and Carlton were also off the boil trying to pick up some form. You also don't list the game against North where he kicked 5 goals but we gave up our second biggest score for the season.
I'm not saying Reid is a better fit forward or back, but like I was saying before, I don't think you can use such limited stats to say he's better suited one way or another, especially when they're so skewed.
It is highly unlikely we could win a flag with the age and games played profile of our back 6 minus Reid. I doubt it has been done for a long time if ever. After Maxwell who many struggle to have in the best 22 it's Toovey comming of a knee reco, Brown and "kids" who haven't played in a winning final. The more I think about the the less I think we can take Reid out of the back half.
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There are always mitigating circumstances but if you look at scores for in the latter 14 games the average was significantly higher - especially when the round 17 game where Reid did not play is excised from the tally.
I can see us using him like Geelong use Harry Taylor except in reverse.
Where Reid spends more time up forward, then gets switched back when needed.
But it will probably be a Horses for Courses scenario though.
ie: Why would you play 3 tall defenders angainst Freo?
Why play 3 tall forwards against the Hawks or Swans?
Why play any tall defenders against Carlton??
Where Reid spends more time up forward, then gets switched back when needed.
But it will probably be a Horses for Courses scenario though.
ie: Why would you play 3 tall defenders angainst Freo?
Why play 3 tall forwards against the Hawks or Swans?
Why play any tall defenders against Carlton??
I'm with you on this. We have a few guys that are showing potential (Keefe, Williams) and another star returning from a year off with injury (Toov), but it doesn't seem that rock solid to be honest... especially now with Shaw gone.
I like Brown, but I dont think he is that AA level FB yet (or ever).
The saying goes that you are only as strong as the weakest link in your chain.
You don't need to be AA level to be a good full back.
If the backline plays and gels like a team it makes it a whole lot easier to play your own position, rather than having to try and cover for the weakest link as well as your own opponent.
You don't need to be AA level to be a good full back.
If the backline plays and gels like a team it makes it a whole lot easier to play your own position, rather than having to try and cover for the weakest link as well as your own opponent.
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