Anyone genuinely made money betting on sport

[MrsBlueSky]

It's unlikely you or anyone would have a unique strategy so if you have one, chances are a significant number of others also have the same. There is no way the bookmakers will not have it covered.

Betting on lines is terrible because it's calculated from stat driven data.

As I showed from last year you would have to double down AND pick all the right games for H2H.

I think long term you're destined to lose. Only way I can see winning big is to outlay big and infrequently OR;

Carefully pick and double down between $1.5 and $2 and have a pull out target.

If my math is right $1000*1.5^5 is 7.5k out.
Get 5 legs right it's a solid pay day. However as I said I think it's unlikely to continually hit.

I think what you say makes a lot of sense. Anybody can be lucky and start off by having a few wins whatever way they bet. It's the bank balance in the long run that counts and i reckon it's always going to be lower than when you started. The best bet to start off with is the one that loses and you make not be so keen to be sucked into thinking sports betting is an easy way to make money, because it genuinely is not.

 

[McCluggages Luggage]

If you're pretty good at lawn bowls you can grift quite a bit from the elderly in the affluent suburbs on the Tuesday casual cash games. Much more ethical than giving cash each week to corporate billionaires on 20 leg SGM's.

 

[beez]

I make $$$ trading various soccer events on Betfair (over/under goals, first-half goals, draws). I do it based purely on the odds of an event and generally ignore the actual teams involved.

I'm generally pretty successful but I don't have the discipline to make a living from it because the way I do it is pretty conservative.

If you understand probability and how to stake correctly (rather than just betting the same units) it's certainly possible to do well. But ultimately, a finite bank is a very big limitation.

 

[Purple7x08_24]

Can people here saying they make money show their total profit loss. I get that you could put in 20k. Walk put with 15k and go on a holiday.

I would like to know actual profit

 

[taurus]

Lol, you want our tax invoice as well?

No one here is selling their betting method, why should they be accountable to you?

On a flip side, I do think more average punters should have their own accountability system so they can minimise potential harm.

 

[sohohoho]

The founder of MONA is a professional gambler with conscience. So definitely can make money.

Controversial opinion - I think Sports betting is way better option than horse racing. There was a study in UK showed that only 2% of horse punters made consistent returns. You are better off working in the industry.

Personally, betting larger stakes and infrequently is the way to go. I'm trying to develop niche in picking underdogs or above $2 bets. Multis are fun distractions.

pointless comparing UK market to Aus.

If had the ability/love of racing it would be so much better than betting sports in this country.

 

[mookieb]

It's unlikely you or anyone would have a unique strategy so if you have one, chances are a significant number of others also have the same. There is no way the bookmakers will not have it covered.

Betting on lines is terrible because it's calculated from stat driven data.

As I showed from last year you would have to double down AND pick all the right games for H2H.

I think long term you're destined to lose. Only way I can see winning big is to outlay big and infrequently OR;

Carefully pick and double down between $1.5 and $2 and have a pull out target.

If my math is right $1000*1.5^5 is 7.5k out.
Get 5 legs right it's a solid pay day. However as I said I think it's unlikely to continually hit.

If you don't think I or many others are consistent winners sports betting then you simply don't the knowledge to discuss this topic.

There is some belief that bookies are very good at what they do which is correct to some degree. However, they have a huge amount of markets and that means specialists or very clever people can pick holes in their markets. That's why they ban and limit people in many cases.

 

[Purple7x08_24]

Lol, you want our tax invoice as well?

No one here is selling their betting method, why should they be accountable to you?

On a flip side, I do think more average punters should have their own accountability system so they can minimise potential harm.

Not asking for the method just want to know actual profits people are genuinely making

 

[Hamingja]

The founder of MONA is a professional gambler with conscience.

They get rebates to bet into the tote. Effectively taking money from the average punters pocket to fill theirs. Real big conscience

 

[sohohoho]

They get rebates to bet into the tote. Effectively taking money from the average punters pocket to fill theirs. Real big conscience

was a weird comment originally but every pro is taking money off shit punters really.

 

[taurus]

They get rebates to bet into the tote. Effectively taking money from the average punters pocket to fill theirs. Real big conscience

You can read why the guy decided to fund Mona.

 

[HTPunter]

Boxing/MMA are some areas where you can find strong edge, but are also time/effort intensive and at the end of the day if you are making good money out of it you'll find lots of other issues (restrictions etc) popping up that slowly degrade your edge. Even 2-5 years ago it was a lot easier to beat the main MMA markets. Important to remember these are global markets now and there's quite literally hundreds/thousands of people analysing these fights weeks out now - markets are a lot more efficient and its less rewarding to put in the hard yards early to establish your edge. You used to be able to easily tape for the upcoming Sunday on a monday/tuesday and uncover big edges - these days you more likely need to be doing your work 2-3 weeks in advance to sustain a large edge (which is a lot easier said than done when 2-3 fights per week are cancelled/changed/replaced)

You CAN definitely win on these markets, just need to realise its time/effort intensive and over time continually getting harder. Plus the way MMA/boxing scheduling is, can be tough mentally during losing runs to stay focused if say, a 10 card losing run spans 3 months of real time time. Versus betting on something where you can turn over more money like racing where the "last race is never run" - you might go on a 20 bet losing streak that lasts 2.5 days not 2.5 months. Not to say you can't/won't have month long losing runs in other sports/racing but the Sunday to sunday grind of MMA/Boxing means 3 bad events in a row could wipe out months and months of hard earned profit.

As far as other sports, you are naive to think there aren't people making good money in just about any sport (outside of novelties / meme sports). AFL/NRL/f1/Soccer/Tennis you name it, there's people smart and dedicated enough to beat it. But that is a very very small subsection of the people who bet on those events. And the majority of people who do win over a year on an AFL season are lucky not necessarily +EV. Plenty would hit a $2000 multi once in the year and lose $1500 across other bets trying to re-create the magic, leaving them "winning" for the year - but not +EV.

Just touching on multis, it's not correct to say as a blanket statement "Yeah anyone doing multis & claiming consistent long term success is telling porkies" - many smart punters will actually use multis to their advantage in order to get around restrictions/limits as well as multiply their edge across two bets (where they see value across multiple selections). I.e. if you've rated X a $1.50 chance and Y a $1.30 chance but they're both $2 odds on books, you can take the multi at $4 which you've rated a $1.95 chance. Not to say most/many people actually achieve this - but its something to think about. Yes you are correct the vast majority of punters taking multis will be bad bets.

Well of course but it’s also not correct to say “no one becomes a billionaire without being born into money”. It’s unlikely that the very very few who have multiple +EV edges consistently are being degens on these parts and posting their tips. The vast majority would be 99.99%, not like 90%.

 

[tropicaltiger]

I put 50$ into Sportsbet and $50 into 365 at the start of last season, haven't made any more deposits into them, and have over $1000 in each account now.

 

[Purple7x08_24]

Looking at next weeks matches, The only match with any value would be Geelong vs Port based on history.

Adelaide is reasonable value, Collingwood will be safe but only for $1.1.

Having said that, both Geelong and Adelaide are playing sides that can beat top sides at their best so my feeling is. How many times can you succeed with this strategy. Statistically at some stage you fail.

Even the professional statisticians and mathematicians haven't been able to predict winners better than the Bookmakers

 

[ronpingwins]

Looking at next weeks matches, The only match with any value would be Geelong vs Port based on history.

Adelaide is reasonable value, Collingwood will be safe but only for $1.1.

Having said that, both Geelong and Adelaide are playing sides that can beat top sides at their best so my feeling is. How many times can you succeed with this strategy. Statistically at some stage you fail.

Even the professional statisticians and mathematicians haven't been able to predict winners better than the Bookmakers

View attachment 1980247

Head to heads aren’t the only thing you can bet on

 

[sohohoho]

Even the professional statisticians and mathematicians haven't been able to predict winners better than the Bookmakers

this is just untrue.

Looking at next week's AFL prices at this time just pointless too.

 

[Purple7x08_24]

this is just untrue.

Looking at next week's AFL prices at this time just pointless too.

I can't find the article but a while back I saw an article that showed how Bookmakers hit something like 73% accuracy for H2H wins, and the best anyone else could do was 70%. A mathemetician developed a system that still couldn't outdo the bookies.

 

[Jugada]

I can't find the article but a while back I saw an article that showed how Bookmakers hit something like 73% accuracy for H2H wins, and the best anyone else could do was 70%. A mathemetician developed a system that still couldn't outdo the bookies.

Lol what exactly do you think the bookmakers are doing to predict winners? They're not ruddy Mensa. Any tool they are using to come up with their odds is replicable by someone who isn't a bookmaker

 

[Jugada]

From a personal point of view I am well up in by betting career but that has been due to 2 individual years that netted 6 figure and high 5 figure returns. My main take has been that when you find an edge in a market you have to hit it hard and just hope that variance looks upon you well. Any edge can come and go in very fast time so no use trying to nickel and dime things

 

[sohohoho]

I can't find the article but a while back I saw an article that showed how Bookmakers hit something like 73% accuracy for H2H wins, and the best anyone else could do was 70%. A mathemetician developed a system that still couldn't outdo the bookies.

Bookmakers bet on every match and every market, you don't have to do this.

 

[pacemaker]

Currently up 2.3k for AFL season which also includes NBL NBA various soccer and horse racing. AFL $103 odd multi 6 leg u40 bet made just over 1k and a SGM involving WB players playing crap $89 multi returning $890 are a couple that have come up the past 7 weeks (check the afl round threads ive posted them.)

The blue prints are there for those who post their winners and of course it's also luck combined with knowledge.

Had I knew Tom Hawkins

26

Tom Hawkins

Age

36

Ht

197cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.2

3star

K

7.9

3star

HB

4.4

3star

M

5.5

5star

T

1.9

4star

G

2.1

5star

D

12.7

3star

K

8.6

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

5.1

5star

T

2.1

3star

G

1.6

5star

D

7.8

2star

K

5.6

3star

HB

2.2

2star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.0

3star

G

2.2

5star

is being carried by his team to win a fairy tale premiership I would have taken Henry for 2+ last round. That baboon cost me $1200. (also posted in afl threads) Take blue prints here and there from other punters (AFL thread is great as i have learnt from the members that post in there what works) and you gain more experience as you go.

 

[pacemaker]

From a personal point of view I am well up in by betting career but that has been due to 2 individual years that netted 6 figure and high 5 figure returns. My main take has been that when you find an edge in a market you have to hit it hard and just hope that variance looks upon you well. Any edge can come and go in very fast time so no use trying to nickel and dime things

I'm not going to ask you to post the bets but your 6 figure and 5 figure win I assume they were multis? How many legs and what sport / markets were they ( H2H, Totals, fantasy ect)

 

[Jugada]

I'm not going to ask you to post the bets but your 6 figure and 5 figure win I assume they were multis? How many legs and what sport / markets were they ( H2H, Totals, fantasy ect)

A few different markets but the most lucrative were probably in order

Same race multis and fixed odds exotics on some forms of racing
International racing multis that use tote odds for settling
Same game multis that had little to no negative juice for correlated outcomes

 

[Moonatic77]

Currently up 2.3k for AFL season which also includes NBL NBA various soccer and horse racing. AFL $103 odd multi 6 leg u40 bet made just over 1k and a SGM involving WB players playing crap $89 multi returning $890 are a couple that have come up the past 7 weeks (check the afl round threads ive posted them.)

The blue prints are there for those who post their winners and of course it's also luck combined with knowledge.

Had I knew Tom Hawkins is being carried by his team to win a fairy tale premiership I would have taken Henry for 2+ last round. That baboon cost me $1200. (also posted in afl threads) Take blue prints here and there from other punters (AFL thread is great as i have learnt from the members that post in there what works) and you gain more experience as you go.

Nah ya not

 

[pendlebury_10]

Anyone here let curiosity get the better of them and open their monthly account statements?