Anyone genuinely made money betting on sport

[Leeroy Brown 15]

I also guessing these are with big stakes $400+ bets for $1.50 - $2.00 odds?

Can't see any other way you are making $1000+ profits most weeks.

This how you do it?

$50 unit size, I very rarely bet more than a unit unless I think a bet has insane +EV. On these occasions it’s still no more than 2-3 units. Bankroll management is crucial if you want to be successful in this game as you will always have winning AND losing bets. At the end of the day it’s about mitigating risk.

 

[pacemaker]

SGMs are terrible for 99% of bettors but so are most markets as they don't have an edge there either, they'll just lose their money slower.


Given how much of a money machine SGMs are they get very little attention paid to them by books, it is very hard to detect if a bet is any good or not, plenty making lots of money exploiting this.

$50 unit size, I very rarely bet more than a unit unless I think a bet has insane +EV. On these occasions it’s still no more than 2-3 units. Bankroll management is crucial if you want to be successful in this game as you will always have winning AND losing bets. At the end of the day it’s about mitigating risk.

Do you guys have a range of odds you play with or is it all EV? Does your odds range stay within $1.50 - $4 bracket when betting?

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Do you guys have a range of odds you play with or is it all EV? Does your odds range stay within $1.50 - $4 bracket when betting?

I usually ignore anything less than $2 odds (unless I'm getting $1.90 for something that should be $1.10). Current average odds per winning bet for the season stand at $5.05

 

[pacemaker]

I usually ignore anything less than $2 odds (unless I'm getting $1.90 for something that should be $1.10). Current average odds per winning bet for the season stand at $5.05

And this is as a single or 2 legger?

 

[McCluggages Luggage]

Do you guys have a range of odds you play with or is it all EV? Does your odds range stay within $1.50 - $4 bracket when betting?

This season I decided to focus on goalscorers. Unless I see some soft lines, like the Swans have been lately but haven't bet them, because that's just how betting works and I'm not right in the head.

Now mostly +EV, if I'm going to bet less than +EV at min and make a larger multiple unit bet at at least 1.70 it's usually either side under 24. But since I'm a degenerate moron I decided to sway from my system I put 4u on GWS to win on the weekend. I've already sent ASADA a sternly worded email about investigating Essington again.

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

And this is as a single or 2 legger?

Singles only. If you are serious about making money sports betting, stop with the long shot multis/SGM’s and find some +EV single bets.

 

[_ASP3X]

Can people here saying they make money show their total profit loss. I get that you could put in 20k. Walk put with 15k and go on a holiday.

I would like to know actual profit

I keep track of every single bet that I make on a spreadsheet. For the 2024 AFL season so far, (I have posted 95% of my bets in the weekly threads) I have the following:

Wagers: $76,673.84
Profit: $10,988.22
Return: 14%

I have posted my bets in terms of units each week and for me this year in AFL 1u = $200.

I have made a profit betting AFL for the last 4 years. Certainly doable.

 

[ash_1050]

Definitely down overall, but I don't do it week to week and treat it as entertainment.

There's a couple of posters on here who must be down an absolute motser over the last few years.

The "oh look I missed winning by one leg/possession/goal that's basically a win" crowd tend to be the worst performers IMO.

 

[burge13]

Definitely down overall, but I don't do it week to week and treat it as entertainment.

There's a couple of posters on here who must be down an absolute motser over the last few years.

The "oh look I missed winning by one leg/possession/goal that's basically a win" crowd tend to be the worst performers IMO.

A mate will lose multiple SGM a weekend by 1 leg. He is so continuously close it has to border on bad luck even though his massive 20 leggers are -EV, at some point 1 has to go your way being that close consistently. Being that close is what sucks people in though

I had 4 SGM in a weekend where they never got within 5+ legs etc so just gave that away quickly.

Nothing wrong with the SGM at massive long odds despite people crying they're -EV. Who cares, so is powerball and people play that every week. Much more chance winning a big sgm on a sport you have some idea about than the lottery...

 

[rank and file]

I wonder if Benny Scarf turns a profit

 

[burge13]

How original, just coping that blackjack dude.

 

[pendlebury_10]

I wonder if Benny Scarf turns a profit

I dare say the fact he went from 50c per follower, down to 20c, then 10c and now ultimately at 5c tells enough of the story.

 

[sohohoho]

he will when he goes tout, which isn't far away

 

[rank and file]

How original, just coping that blackjack dude.

Could be bullshit,nothing stopping him placing the bet,film the ticket then cancelling it.
I think you've got 90 seconds to cancel at TAB?
Never seen footage of him collecting or placing a bet with a bookie.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

I did. Until I started hanging out with Fev.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

You never could compete with Lloyd Braun!

 

[Suncraze]

Obviously not following Suncraze

 

[metalpiggy]

Down on AFL/NBA but treat that as entertainment.

Up good on boxing/MMA. Have funded a 3 week holiday in the USA, multiple trips to Melbourne/Sydney/Perth for events, 2022 AFL GF trip, kitchen/bathroom renovation over the last few years.

Winning can be done, looking at historical odds/results won't help disprove or prove that as everyone would cap those games differently prematch

If you think result A is a 60% chance of winning, bookies give it a 50% chance, bet
If bookies set it at 60%, and you have it 50% don't bet.

If your analysis is right long term, you'll be fine. Multis should be treated as lotto tickets for the most part

I have heard that MMA is good to bet on, but I dont know why

 

[metalpiggy]

I made 8k on AFL last year, but I wasn't betting on H&A results (or not much anyway). Up about 2.5k this year. I really don't think it's as difficult as you're making out.

I bet bulletride has made money on sports betting this year.

How about giving some examples off bets that you would make, making 8k a year on the side from betting works for me

 

[Atavistic]

How about giving some examples off bets that you would make, making 8k a year on the side from betting works for me

I made about 4k from unders bets on the weather last year. Sometimes they don't get up and it's frustrating, but when they do it's good money. Up more than 2k on those this year. I usually bet on U40 each half at 51-1 or 101-1 and then ~u100-115 for total unders @ 101.

And I made 6k from marks multis at TAB last year, including the Geelong v St Kilda game where the had a ridiculous number of marks. Some teams take a lot more marks than others. Sometimes depends on the opposition and venue. I haven't had the same luck with them this year, except a little with Melbourne and Brisbane.

And then I lose money on goal-kickers and goal-kicker multis, I think quite a bit last year.

It seems a good idea to me to follow any good advice you see in the latest round AFL thread.

But I haven't made 8k every year, only last year.

 

[Pres]

I don't bet on sport, but it is possible to make an annual profit on the ponies using a proportional staking approach or adopting the Kelly Criterion.

That definitely used to be the case 5-7 years ago. Not sure so much today.

 

[juss]

I'm skeptical of anyone with a long term and consistent strategy. I ran historical data from 2023 AFL season.

I selected Home teams with odds of less than $1.20

33 teams were filtered. Here were the results

7/33 were losses (21%).
2 were close wins under a goal

From $1.21 - $1.50 the home team won 38/54 (30% loss)

From $1.70 - $2.10 Home team won 21/39 (Near 50%)

Best case scenario below for double or nothing you make $1545

It seems to me like the statistics just don't add up to the value of the odds given the outcomes.

STatistically, I'm interested to see how other ranges fair but I think it will be more of the same.

And for anyone saying you could selectively pick those. Who would have been able to accurately pick say 20 consecutive legs? That would be about 5.5K




View attachment 1975439

I've made money across seasons in both the AFL and NRL. This year I seem to be just breaking even, haven't been able to get ahead. That's a result of inconsistent bet sizing, e.g. I have gone too hard a couple of times and increased my bet size, and of course they were losing bets and have eaten away at my profits, I think I'm like half a % up or something insigificant this year, but previous seasons have been better.

I almost exclusively bet on just H2H matches, but this year have been experimenting in the 1-39 range, particularly underdogs in the 1-39 range.

Data will only get you so far, you still need to make a qualitative assesment of the bets and their true value. There's better $2.50 chances than others and this is where I guess the "skill" in being a punter / tipster comes into it, unless you're working off a system or data model that is purely objective.

I am now completely off multies, as while they are fun, they were long term losers for me.

I have also found (contrary to belief in other forms of punting) that less is more. Variance is supposed to even out over time, but I find when I take the approach of selecting a few very solid bets per week, I'm coming out of the round much more succesful than when I'm betting on 7/9 games or something like that. It does take a lot of discipline though.

Without running the numbers (I used to but the program I used stop offering their service) I would say I am most profitable in the $1.40-$1.70 range. Sure you can pick more winners at shorter odds, but it doesn't add up in that upsets kill you more often than they should in <$1.30 chances.

Have also started finding success getting 'dogs in the $3-$5 range at 1-39, but have only been doing it recently so not long enough to assess the strategy long term.

I am also reasonably succesful in MLB and soccer betting, when I am disciplined.

 

[juss]

It's unlikely you or anyone would have a unique strategy so if you have one, chances are a significant number of others also have the same. There is no way the bookmakers will not have it covered.

Betting on lines is terrible because it's calculated from stat driven data.

As I showed from last year you would have to double down AND pick all the right games for H2H.

I think long term you're destined to lose. Only way I can see winning big is to outlay big and infrequently OR;

Carefully pick and double down between $1.5 and $2 and have a pull out target.

If my math is right $1000*1.5^5 is 7.5k out.
Get 5 legs right it's a solid pay day. However as I said I think it's unlikely to continually hit.

The founder of MONA is a professional gambler with conscience. So definitely can make money.

Controversial opinion - I think Sports betting is way better option than horse racing. There was a study in UK showed that only 2% of horse punters made consistent returns. You are better off working in the industry.

Personally, betting larger stakes and infrequently is the way to go. I'm trying to develop niche in picking underdogs or above $2 bets. Multis are fun distractions.

Yep this is exactly what I mean with my "less is more" approach.

I'm winning a lot more when I bet 2-3 times a week across all sports on really selective bets, rather than when I'm sprinkling a whole lot of smaller bets across the week.

 

[juss]

Can people here saying they make money show their total profit loss. I get that you could put in 20k. Walk put with 15k and go on a holiday.

I would like to know actual profit

%ROI > profit though.

Profit is just the outcome of how much you're putting on, it doesn't reflect a more optimal betting strategy than a higher ROI.

 

[juss]

I can't find the article but a while back I saw an article that showed how Bookmakers hit something like 73% accuracy for H2H wins, and the best anyone else could do was 70%. A mathemetician developed a system that still couldn't outdo the bookies.

Bookmakers profit because they have a mathematical edge, making it long term virtually impossible for them to lose.
E.g. when there's a dead even match, Sportsbet will offer

Team A: $1.90
Team B: $1.90

With long term variance, it is almost impossible for them not to profit long term, when they are offering $1.90 on a coin toss.