Racing April Daily Punt: Delayed by a week due to bad weather

[Jugada]

- the flight stakes was a brutal tempo
- she was a month between runs in the Vic Oaks
- she was good through the line in the ATC Derby
- she was on the quick back up yesterday

Whether it was run fast or not it was a G1 over a mile. She has the turn of foot to win over shorter trips so acting like she is some plodder who needs a grinding 2400m is just wrong.

She was definitely not strong through the line in the Derby either. She never went around a horse, got the dream run on the corner and couldn't have been much more flat up the straight.

At the point where she has shown nothing at the end of 2400m in three attempts you are just searching for excuses

 

[iluvparis]

Yet again you fail to realise there is more to analysing form that just numbers on a piece of paper

yet again you make things up to rationalize a losing bet

 

[TBellicious]

"Outsprinted"
Shocked to be sitting here

 

[iluvparis]

Solid #theyknew on RUNAWAY at Pakenham there - don't think he will be winning too many more races over the obstacles.

 

[Shade]

Who jumping in to the winx like odds of Hela.

 

[Shade]

The 2020 VRC Oaks is in the conversation for the worst in the history

absolutely embarrassing form

 

[iluvparis]

The 2020 VRC Oaks is in the conversation for the worst in the history

absolutely embarrassing form

Disappointing after what was an absolutely tremendous renewal in 2019

 

[iluvparis]

Geez McEvoy really did go a furlong too early on Probabeel yesterday to cost it the race; Nimalee could have taken him to about the 300 and he could have popped off its back and pushed the button then. I guess he thought he was panels better than them (a fair assumption) and just had to get out into the open and it would be all over.

 

[Shade]

Disappointing after what was an absolutely tremendous renewal in 2019

Miami bound actually has a heart when she turns up.

Personal and Montefilia are absolute pea hearts

 

[FallingLiefs]

yet again you make things up to rationalize a losing bet

Holy shit the Hypocrisy here.

 

[Jugada]

View attachment 1105465
"Outsprinted"
Shocked to be sitting here

Yeah that happens when they are gasping for air

 

[iluvparis]

Yeah that happens when they are gasping for air

'getting into the straight' FML she doesn't take an inch of ground of anything that finished in front of her the last furlong - thats got nothing to do with being outsprinted.

 

[iluvparis]

One of the best bool ‘trials’ you’ll ever see from HOP in the Terang Cup today

 

[iluvparis]

Geez you won’t see many better cup runs this year than divine shadow with the 62 at Gero. Absolutely slaughtered given no rest by the jock and still right there in the firing line with 50 to go

 

[iluvparis]

More 3yo classic trials in the UK from Newbury tonight and so far the good 2yo form has held up ok so I'd be sticking with that for now:

Fred Darling - ALCOHOL FREE won the G1 Cheveley Park at the end of season and like Sacred midweek looks to stretch out to 7f for the first time.

Greenham - CHINDIT was one of many who failed in the bog in last years Dewhurst (UK's best 2yo race) but was undefeated before that - looks to bounce back on good ground here.

Also PSA - Race 2 (John Porter Stakes) is the type of race people with NFI about international form will start tipping horses out of for the Cup - but I'll save you the trouble - this race is for the slowies who won't be anywhere near good enough - so OTI/Oz Bloodstock will probably own half of them by tomorrow morning. AL AASY looks the most unexposed having not been seen since jumping 7/2 against Mogul at Glorious Goodwood. EUCHEN GLEN ran 5th in the Ebor (so I assume Moby will be chips in) and has Addeyb form from up in Scotland so will probably be $1.10 on the Australian totes.

 

[half_back_flank]

Thanks iluvparis, three race reviews, three hits.

 

[kicksome]

Geez McEvoy really did go a furlong too early on Probabeel yesterday to cost it the race;

Yup, had a fair few multis going in that. Spewing

 

[iluvparis]

Pretty ordinary year for the Championships all round I have to say with the two notable performances the Squib having an ON day and beating horses that had no trouble beating him last spring (or earlier this prep) and a 2yo beating up on the D graders after all the good ones had gone to the sheds.

 

[54Dogs]

Pretty ordinary year for the Championships all round I have to say with the two notable performances the Squib having an ON day and beating horses that had no trouble beating him last spring (or earlier this prep) and a 2yo beating up on the D graders after all the good ones had gone to the sheds.

If 1 of the top 5 highest rated winners on Championships day was

- Not even there and
- Was So Si Bon

it sums up the quality nicely

 

[iluvparis]

Dragon heading to the Doomben Cup. $8 in pre nom markets worth a nibble given his bitch Mugatoo is 4.50 fave

 

[Jugada]

Dragon heading to the Doomben Cup. $8 in pre nom markets worth a nibble given his b*tch Mugatoo is 4.50 fave

Think It Over at 12s to out tough them both again the obvious play.

Disappointing Zaaki hasn't been missed in the market

 

[iluvparis]

Think It Over at 12s to out tough them both again the obvious play.

Disappointing Zaaki hasn't been missed in the market

Lol they have left a zero off the TIO price - I wish they did run though so it gets beaten out of sight and we dont have to see that crab line up in the Cox Plate. You'd have to be a mug to take $12.

I'll save you some cash though jug mate - TIO is going to the paddock (not that it matters pre nom market anyway). Don't say I ever don't give you nuffink

 

[Jugada]

Lol they have left a zero off the TIO price - hopefully they run though so it gets beaten out of sight and we dont have to see that crab line up in the Cox Plate.

Already lined up in a QE and beaten home these two stars of WFA racing there. Theyre pretty much all on the same level

 

[iluvparis]

Already lined up in a QE and beaten home these two stars of WFA racing there. Theyre pretty much all on the same level

Lol no they're not - that margin and SP profile the way the race was run is turned around 9 times out of 10 - your takes continue to be utterly horrendous. Next you'll be telling me to get on Big Dal for the Arc

 

[Jugada]

Looking at the market even at 10s I think Zaaki is the only one I could entertain and hope for natural improvement on a very good first up run here. Still not much meat on that bone though.

Couldn't touch Mug. Dragon has been beaten by Angel of Truth, Dalasan and TIO his last two goes at 2000m so not looking to dive into single figures. Q22 probably going to be more his go