Okay its getting toward that time again. As per usual I have gone through and given my opinions on all the Lions players for DT/SC purposes. I will also update the second thread with relevant news as we go. For each player I have provided my projections for their scoring for 2012 as well as their scoring for 2011. The format is DT/SC.
The Guns
Rockliff (2011 – 112/113, 2012 – 115/118)
I had Rocky in my team from round 1 last year and loved the ride. I originally projected him for just under 100 but that was underselling him. Rocky moved from an outside in role in the first half of the year to an inside out role in the second half of the year and averaged 122/124 in the last 10 games. He upped his tackle rate a lot with the position switch as well as adding a couple more positions. He may get more attention this year but he doesn’t hurt enough atm to warrant a tag. 115/118 seems very achievable and he looks much fitter and harder than he has to date. He had a slight twinge before Xmas for a week or so but is back into it. He missed a couple of games last year but has good durability on the whole.
NAB - did not look his sharpest but even then was a scoring machine. Jump onboard.
Redden (2011 – 109/103, 2012 – 110/110)
At this time last year I projected he would be the Lion to go over 100 for the first time in some time and he didn’t let me down. I am expecting a consolidation year DT wise with a slight improvement SC wise due to more confidence personally and within the group around him. He should play the same role as last year and was very consistent with his scoring last year. He had one 60 DT game (and a 50 SC game) which I would expect to improve to an 80 this year which might see a slight improvement. There is scope for him to improve his possession count at 23.9 but I think he might drop his tackle count by a tackle or so which would offset the rise. He one of the next generation of DT stars and should be considered. Excellent durability.
NAB - had a couple of nice games but a poor game against Ess. The 132 DT against Carlton shows his scoring power. Nothing much has changed from my initial view.
Leuenberger (2011 – 93/102, 2012 – 99/108)
Voss let Leuey off the leash last year and he proved what a weapon he could be. I am really not projecting any real increase in his scoring as a ruck this year. He had a few games early last year where the coaching staff messed around with him up forward before accepting that he was one of the best rucks in the comp and they decided to play him there. His scoring up forward depressed his final results. It’s worth noting he averaged 103/121 over the last 9 games. He has a consecutive games streak of 44 which is second only to Cox amongst rucks so the durability concerns from early in his career are hopefully behind him. Hudson comes in and should play a fair bit which may reduce Leuenberger’s time in the middle a bit. I am still expecting a 60/40 ruck split in those game with Leuenberger spending another 20% of that time resting at FF where he might get a goal or two. There is some risk of reduced time in the middle but I expect his continued development to compensate for this.
NAB - has looked really out of sorts in the NAB. He has been poor and has not been scoring well as we fiddle around with the ruck set up. I would look elsewhere.
Hanley (2011 – 80/83, 2012 – 86/92)
Hanley was a borderline elite back this year just gone and I expect him to up his average a bit this year to get firmly into that lower end elite category. The Lions are playing more of a high possession game and that starts from the back. Hanley is the best runner and his disposal can be elite (it can also go awry on occasions as well) so the Lions like to use him a lot. I expect that to continue this year. The main problem is that with McGrath forward he is also the best defensive option for the small quicks and he is prone to quiet scoring games as a consequence. Last year was his first full year in the team though and I expect him to improve on the low scoring games this year. Golby in there helps free him up as well. Very durable play which helps compensate for the slightly lower ceiling than some similar options.
NAB - 87 and 84 DT in his last two games pretty much indicates what I think he will give you. Playing a mix of positions although pretty high when the whole team was in against Carlton. Trying to be freed up which is great for his scoring potential.
Rookies to consider
Zorko (2012 – 70)
Prelisted by GC and traded for by the Lions, Zorko was brought in to play. He is a mid who can go forward but will start his career with the Lions as a forward who can play in the midfield. I am expecting a season like we saw from similar types in Christensen and Dalhaus last year for their teams. He will be 22 when the season starts and has proven a dangerous forward at NEAFL level kicking a bag of 12 one day. He showed the ability to step up to a higher level dragging Qld back and scaring the hell out of WA in the interstate game last year. He has hardened up and looks ready to go for round 1. He will play time both up forward and through the middle and should be at the top of your fwd rookie lists.
NAB - not sighted due to a hip injury. Still no official word on how he is progressing. He will return through the ressies so keep an eye on him around downgrade time.
Bartlett (2012 – 72)
Bartlett is a big talent who is coming off two knee recos in a row which wiped out his chances of playing. He had done one of those before his draft and more than a few professional recruiters felt he was a top 10 talent before the injury. When he returned from the first injury he was named an emergency a few times before doing it again. He played a few games at the end of last year and was pretty good and Voss talked him up as one to watch this year shortly after the end of last season. He has been brought on carefully this offseason being on a modified program up until Christmas. He is in full training now and is doing extra running to make up time. I have high hopes for him and is one who should definitely be on your watch list. Chance for round 1 but more likely a downgrade target around week 6 or 7 after he has played a couple of games. Should score well.
NAB - played the last couple of ressies games and looks a bit short of match fitness. I still like him for the second half of the year but he looks rusty and will need time to build his engine.
Wrigley (2012 – 65)
He is only a rookie so will need to be promoted before he is eligible to play. Still he was brought in as a mature ager at 24 so the Lions might give him a run to see what he can do. He is a good runner and user of the ball and so if given a chance he could do reasonably well especially if there are injuries to the experienced guys down back.
NAB - did not get a run and does not look to be in the picture atm.
Docherty (2012 – 65)
DO NOT CONSIDER EARLY. He has had offseason hip surgery and has missed most of the hard conditioning work. It is going to take time for him to get up to speed and that means he is no chance for round 1. Still I can see the Lions wanting to get a good look at him this year given his kicking could be a real asset to the side. He will be a downgrade target for me once the cows come home from round 7 onwards.
NAB - played his first game in the ressies game against GC. Showed some glimpses but is a fair way off match fit. My initial assessment stands.
Others you may be considering
Brown (2011 – 67/73, 2012 – 83/88)
If you play Sportsbet he is definitely one to consider but I am not sure I go with the big fella in the other scoring systems. He is priced very nicely but he is a power forward who has turned 30 and the downhill run has started for him. He will still have big games but I question how often those games will come. He will likely play closer to goal than he did at his peak and whilst he will still be the focus of the attack hopefully there will be a few other targets up there as well this year. He had most of last year on the sidelines with facial issues which should freshen up his body but durability is a big concern with Browny. If you are going to get him get him early as I expect him to start with a bang.
NAB - expected back for round 3 after more face surgery. Has not looked great in game situations to date and I would look elsewhere.
Rich (2011 – 81/85, 2012 – 95/104)
The penny seems to have dropped for Rich this offseason and he by all accounts is working much harder. Whereas in previous years he was consistently at the back of the running packs this year he seems solidly midfield. The increased running ability will only help him up his scoring as will the attention Rockliff and Redden will have to be paid with the amount of ball they get. Rich will still be the number one tag target as he has been for the last two years but he is learning the deal with that better and his better engine should help him get free more. He also seems to be practicing in a receiving capacity at packs which might help up his possessions which sit just below 20 atm. He is an elite talent. Probably more of a SC than a DT option. Missed a couple of games last year but usually is very durable.
NAB - slowed by injury late in the preseason but was flying before that. Brought on reasonably slowly in the last two games but should be right for round 1 np. Showed against Carlton why he will get the tag every week. Ballsy pick.
Adcock (2011 – 84/90, 2012 – 78/82)
Interesting year for Adcock last year. Started like a house on fire but very quiet in the middle before finishing solidly. I think after the early period the Lions worked out they would be better getting it into the hands of the likes of Hanley and eventually other teams worked that out as well and left Adcock open more. This season I expect him to still be an important cog at the back but for the ball to be in hands of others more often especially if Drummond plays a significant amount and Docherty breaks into the side. Durability also has to be a concern with Jed always missing at least a few games.
NAB - great game against Carlton playing in the mids with a full team in. Came back to earth against Ess but with a midfield role looming he is definately worth considering.
Drummond (2011 – 65/75, 2012 – 80/95)
For those interested in taking a big gamble they could consider Drummond. Consider though that I don’t think he has ever played a full season and at 29 is coming off two seasons where he has played 7 games in each year and has only had one season in the last 6 where he has played over 13 games. He is the prototype for the type of guy you want to avoid on durability issues. Still if you are up for it there is plenty of upside in his price and its possible he could go well early and make it an easy sideways trade to another premium when he inevitably gets injured. He has been on a modified program this offseason but is tracking to be ready to role for round 1.
NAB - played in the ressies in the last week of the preseason. A chance for round 1 but I would not count on it. With his injury history I would not want to be on him coming off more injuries.
Harwood (2011 – 55-54, 2012 – 80-85)
For those considering a midpriced strategy he might be someone to keep in mind. Harwood was the talk of the early training sessions with the improvement in his running. He is another hard nut Tasmanian inside mid in the Mitch Robinson mould and is the type of player needed in the clearances for the Lions. He will throw his weight around, clear space and win the clearances that need to be won. By his own personal admission he wasn’t fit enough last year and did not get the games many like me expected. With a better engine he should get his chance and I expect a jump in scoring to ensue. With the bye structure this year there might be more people taking guys like Harwood to get through the byes. Initial job security may be an issue. Had a issue before Xmas and has been handled a little cautiously in the early new year but all seems good.
NAB - scored very well in limited minutes in the first two weeks (110 per 100mins) and dominated in the ressies the last two weeks. Despite him being in good form and being what we need he does not seem to be in favour with the coach. Look elsewhere.
The rest of the team
Banfield (2011 – 59/63, 2012 – 65/70)
WATCH IN THE PRESEASON. Banfield is actually a winger who has been playing in the forward line because of the pressure he applies defensively and the severe lack of other options in the small forward stakes. With McGrath and Zorko up there with a few other options it is very possible that Banfield could spend more time floating through the midfield. He offers pace and defensive pressure which is needed in the midfield and could be an attractive option as a low priced forward. If he plays the same role as last year then I won’t be considering him but if he is playing significant time through the midfield he definitely comes onto my radar especially with the severe lack of round 11 bye forwards.
NAB - has not been in good form. No signs of stepping up into relevance.
Beams (2011 – 43/37, 2012 – 60/60)
Not currently in the 22 which probably means stay away. He would play the same role as Zorko and if there were an injury there then he may come in the picture although still he would be competing with Sheldon and Green. He is capable of scoring well but playing as a defensive forward last year did not allow him to take advantage of that. If he got a chance in the back half or through the middle then you might consider but too much risk for me.
NAB - looked pretty good in the preseason and has solidified a spot in the 22. He is a capable scorer but you are better off going with a rookie priced player.
Bewick (2011 – 47/38, 2012 – 50/50)
He was given every chance last year playing 12 games but did not deliver on the promise shown in the GC preseason game. With guys like O’Brien, Polec, Bartlett, Hawksley, Yeo, Weardon and possibly Hanley and Banfield as well as others like Beams and Green, contesting for an outside slot I struggle to see him getting a game based on exposed form. A pass for me.
NAB - struggled in the AFL but looked very good in the ressies. Will get some games but also likely to be in and out of the side. Still a pass for me.
Black (2011 – 91/94, 2012 – 82/85)
Black has been astoundingly consistent throughout his career scoring wise but at 33 at the beginning of the season I think his scoring will start to decline. He has had OP for a lot of years and with the young guard starting to take control of the midfield he will step back a little. It’s been a long time since Black has been considered an elite mid for DT/SC purposes and I don’t expect that to change at 33.
NAB - same old same old.
Buchanan (2011 – 57/56, 2012 – 55/55)
Purely a depth player at this stage of his career and one who if selected will play as a defensive forward. He should score pretty well through the midfield in the reserves but that is not going to do you any good in DT or SC. Do not consider.
NAB - got a couple of games with limited TOG. Expect similar during the season.
Justin Clarke (2012 – 0/0)
Rookie listed KPD from rural SA does not exactly scream pick me. He might well end up being a nice player for us but it won’t be this year. Do not consider.
NAB - looked pretty good in the intra club and ressies matches. Got some nice skills and showed he could be a running defensive option. If picked later in the year I will consider him.
Cornelius (2011 – 45/49, 2012 – 68/75)
Mitch Clark’s position is open and for me it either goes to Lisle or Cornelius. Cornelius is the more dangerous player and is working a lot harder this preseason to secure his shot. Still trails the field in the runs too often though. He will get his chance and a couple of goals a game and improved defensive effort should keep him in the side. Probably has not improved his running enough to get around the ground and score enough to pick him though. Watch but doubtful to be worth picking.
NAB - has worked hard to improve his running but does not enjoy the faith of the coach. Can't pick him.
Crisp (2012 – 0/0)
Rookie mid who will be relying on injuries to get a look in. He is a hard worker though particularly defensively and if he got a chance he might score okay. He was unlucky to be overlooked in the National Draft and there is talent there. He would not be the first one I ruled out of DT/SC contention for this year.
NAB - got lots of chances in the NAB and has to be a chance for early selection. Even if picked though has to be a sub and his scoring has not been great.
Dyson (2011 – 31/30, 2012 – 45/45)
He will be a third year rookie this year so the pressure is on him. He will probably get a go at some stage but it’s hard to see him getting enough games to make him a worthwhile selection.
NAB - did not get any NAB time. A fair way off being picked atm.
Golby (2011- 53/51, 2012 – 62/65)
Promoted for this season and would have to be in the mix even with everyone fit. Playing him allows Hanley to be freed up to run off. Improved as he played more games last year and should do so again this year but I don’t see his role as allowing him to become a big scorer. Not someone I am consider atm.
NAB - has looked really good this NAB and is rock solid in the side now. I am upgrading the expectation to 70-75 for DT and 75-80 for SC. He has a good DT game but he will still get defensive roles to free up McGrath and Hanley (and Drummond when he returns). If those guys are out he has shown very good scoring potential playing in the freer roles. One to watch for the future but maybe not this year unless there is an injury.
Green (2011 – 46/45, 2012 – 72/75)
WATCH IN THE PRESEASON. Excellent scorer as a junior and if he looks like he has secured a regular spot in the midfield jump aboard. I am thinking he probably won’t though initially and will dominate the ressies and force his way into the team. Depending on when he debuts he is one I am considering to address the bye problems this year. He has the talent and is pretty nicely priced.
NAB - has not have much of a chance to play through the midfield in the NAB. Up forward he did not score much. In the ressies he has looked good and I still expect him to dominate there before forcing his way into the seniors hopefully in a mid role. You can't pick him though.
Harvey (2012 – 45/45)
Did not report in shape but apparently has been shining of late. Played out of position in the reserves last year but that experience could maybe help him in the long run. He is strong and is the second fastest player ever tested at Combine so he has pace. Could be brought in to do defensive jobs on quick forwards later in the year but I would not expect him to score particularly well. Not in my plans atm.
NAB - got games in the first two weeks and I liked what I saw. Not a big scorer but solid defensively and with the ball. He will not start early in the year though and will be relying on injuries for a shot.
Hawksley (2011 – 60/63, 2012 – 60/65)
Did not play much last year but finished with a career best game against Sydney racking up 27 possessions playing as a HFFer from memory. He played very well in that game and if he secured a spot in the team and repeated that sort of game with some regularity then he would need to be considered. Personally though I think he faces too much competition for a DT/SC relevant role. He is a pass for me.
NAB - can get it when given a good role but burns it too often. Probably about 25 on the list and is another who will need an injury.
Hudson (2011 – 74/83, 2012 – 52/57)
Never a great option in DT/SC and playing as a back-up to Leuey is not going to help him. I am thinking the coaching staff might also want to get a few games into Longer as well and Hudson might have 5 or 6 games in the ressies. Even if something happened to Leuey I would probably look elsewhere.
NAB - somewhat surprisingly appears behind Longer. Never a DT/SC option anyway this just further solidifies things.
Karnezis (2011 – 48/51, 2012 – 64/68)
WATCH IN THE PRESEASON. Karnezis might be a bit too valuable in the forward line for him to be DT/SC relevant. He is a talented kid who I think could run nicely on a flank and play in a Fyfe type role. He is however one of the few dangerous forwards we have and so I think he stays closer to goal. Still watch the preseason and if he is playing quite a bit up on the wing don’t be afraid to jump aboard. With the hair cut and more weight on his bones chances are you won’t recognise him at the start of the year.
NAB - has been disappointing this offseason and seems to struggle to get open when carrying more weight. You can't pick him based on exposed form.
Lester (2011 – 47/51, 2012 – 65/65)
WATCH IN THE PRESEASON. He only played 3 games last year and it’s a bit of a shame he didn’t get a discount. He cracked the team for round 1 as a rookie and seems like a bit of a favourite of Voss playing as a forward utility. Seems to be training in that same role this year and it’s looking atm like they might find room for both he and Karnezis. Lester has the advantage of being able to play in the back half and through the midfield and if he gets time in those spots he might be worth considering. At the moment he is not really in my thinking but he is one I will be watching in the preseason.
NAB - looks solidly in the side. Playing down back in the last couple of games is encouraging but I am not sure his scoring potential warrants picking him. I am thinking his scoring will be in the 55-60 range now.
Lisle (2011 – 55/54, 2012 – 55/55)
He has been training with the forward group and is competing with Cornlius and Retzlaff for a spot in the side. Even if he wins the spot initially I do not see his position as being at all secure as he is simply the least goal scoring threat of the three and a lack of production on the scoreboard will put pressure on him. He could swing into the backline if there are injuries there and he may be a more attractive option back there. At the moment though he is not on my radar.
NAB - shown very little scoring wise and consigned to the ressies the last two weeks. Look elsewhere.
Longer (2012 – 45)
First year ruckman with Leuenberger and Hudson ahead of him. Even if one of those went down its hard to see him getting much game time or scoring particularly well. Expect him to get a half dozen games this year but they will be spread out. I like him for the future but not this year where he starts at an inflated price anyway given he is a high draft pick.
NAB - has shown some form up forward with Brown out and looking like he will get a few early games. Getting well beaten in the ruck contest though and expect him to be in and out of the side. There are better cheaper options.
Maguire (2011 - 46/51, 2012 – 45/50)
Not in my 22 and for me he is key position depth only. Even if he does start he is not a fantasy player. He should not be in your side.
NAB - scoring wise he has been pretty good but you still cannot pick him.
McGrath (2011 – 65/72, 2012 – 54/60)
He pulled out a couple of big games last year when he was moved around a fair bit including through the midfield. That may happen this year but I would not rely on it. He should start the year in the forward pocket and for the first time in a while his spot is not guaranteed. He has never been a particularly good fantasy player and I am not expecting that to change at 28. Turning up one of the very few out of shape would not have endeared him to the coaches.
NAB - looks like he might be freed up a bit more this year to link up but at his age I still cannot see him suddenly becoming a fantasy player.
McKeever (2011 – 41/42, 2012 – 55/56)
I like McKeever a lot as a prospect but for DT/SC purposes he is still a young KPD. He would be a bit ahead of Merrett as far as options out of defense go but he is a fair way behind everyone else. I expect that to improve but not enough this year for me to pick him. McKeever is one of the best runners at the club and once he sorts his game out he could be an option but I think that is a season or two away.
NAB - played the last few games but did not go particularly well. His spot remains in serious doubt and he did not suddenly show that he will be fantasy relevant.
Merrett (2011 – 59/86, 2012 – 55/60)
Who said the big guy was not fantasy relevant. 86 wtf??? Anyway expect a return to earth this year. Big Rog was is a crucial element of our defensive unit but a fantasy star he is not.
NAB - returned from injury and now he looks like he will start at FF. More reason to avoid.
Michael (2012 – 0/0)
Michael is a rookie listed guy who grew last year and is now a legitimate ruck size. Expect this to be a year where he learns the ins and outs of his new trade in the reserves whilst the team gets a look at what they have on their hands. I don’t expect him to get any games this year in the 1’s.
NAB - doing okay in the ressies as a KPD but not sighted in the NAB. As above.
Newell (2012 – 0/0)
Newell has been killing the running at the club and has broken the 3km record a couple of times so far. Despite that though he is still a rookie with a few rough edges to brush off. He has been with the team a year (last year under scholarship) so he might be closer than he otherwise would be but I still think we are a year away from seeing him get regular games. He would be putting some pressure on Raines for the tagging role which is good to see.
NAB - I thought we would have gotten to see more of him than we did. Only got one game and was composed in the half game he got. Showed good ability to find the ball. Watch for him later in the year maybe.
O’Brien (2011 – 52/47, 2012 – 65/65)
WATCH IN THE PRESEASON. Showed some touches of class last year and with a bit of improvement in the physical aspects of the game he could be right in the coaches thinking for a wing spot. He is one of the true bust out chances for the Lions and 65/65 could be underselling him. The one thing against picking him this year is that he is a mid only whereas last year he was much more attractive as a fwd/back.
NAB - fringe 22 still and got a bit of it in limited TOG. His spot is too much in danger to consider him.
Patfull (2011 – 38/48, 2012 – 40/45)
Plays as a third tall/CHB and does not score as well as he should in that position. He defends well which saves his spot but it’s not out of the question that he could be overtaken this year. Whatever though, DT and SC are not his games.
NAB - he continues to not be DT/SC relevant and Lester might challenge for his spot sooner rather than later.
Polec (2011 – 62/51, 2012 – 65/65)
Has had an interrupted preseason and is still not fully back into it. Accordingly I expect him to start in the ressies and have to earn a spot from there. Even once he makes the team I have yet to see anything which makes me think he will be a high DT/SC scorer in the near future.
NAB - looks pretty good in the preseason and I now expect him to start week 1 in the seniors. Has gotten better the longer we have gone in the NAB. I still wouldn't pick him but I might throw a couple of bucks on him in the RS.
Polkinghorne (2011 – 68/66, 2012 – 60/60)
Polks could potentially be a break out candidate but equally he could lose his midfield spot and be relegated to the forward line or the reserves. It looks as though he may have upped his running ability this offseason but he needs to be able to turn that into more ball winning ability. The competition is now hot for midfield spots from the likes of Harwood, Green, Bartlett and Zorko and if Polkinghorne does not perform then he could be in trouble. I struggle to see him being a top shelf mid personally and think he might get overtaken this year.
NAB - looks to have gone backwards. Coach still loves him but his spot has to be major doubt.
Raines (2011 – 60/58, 2012 – 55/55)
Hard to believe Raines is only 25 still. Anyway he is our number 1 tagger and did a pretty reasonable job of it last year. His disposal skills are still very poor (although maybe slightly better last year) and until that changes his spot is always going to be under threat. Anyway you should all know the tagger rule – avoid them like the plague.
NAB - injured and not sighted.
Retzlaff (2011 – 35/38, 2012 – 45/45)
He will get some games you would have to think but he is outside the 22 atm and will need to force his way in there. He is very athletic and can cover some ground but I don’t think he runs to great spots and may lack a little in the football smarts. All up there are much better options at his price cheap though it is.
NAB - as above.
Sheldon (2011 – 53/55, 2012 – 48/50)
He had a run of pretty reasonable games toward the end of last year and was in our 22 for most of the year. With that said I would not have in my best 22 with his spot going to Zorko and even if he was I am not taking a defensive forward with no goal scoring ability for DT/SC purposes. It’s worth noting that he has also been in the hospital group a lot this offseason as well. Nup.
NAB - did not show much in the way of development in the NAB and probably has lost his spot to Beams.
Staker (2011 – 54/67, 2012 – 0/0)
Out for the year (or as good as) with a knee reco.
Stiller (2011 – 65/70, 2012 – 60/65)
One of his best seasons last year but unlike early in his career he was not playing as a free wheeling wing but as a run-with in the defensive half. Still finds it reasonably well but he is not a preferred option coming out of defense and I see little upside in him. If his form declines his spot also comes under pressure from Docherty and perhaps Golby if he is not in the side to start the year. Not someone I would be picking.
NAB - solid, capable scorer but he slows the game up every time he gets the ball. Drummond should come in for him as soon as he is right to go. Docherty also a major threat to him.
Wearden (2012 – 0/0)
I think Wearden was taken on potential a fair bit and this year will be all about development through the reserves. I find it hard to see him getting any games.
NAB - got one half in the seniors and did a couple of nice things. Not a chance for early games though.
Yeo (2012 – 45/45)
Physically underdeveloped I think Yeo will be brought on slowly and made to earn his stripes. There is a lot of competition for spots through the midfield amongst the Lions youngsters and I haven’t seen much to set him apart from the pack. I think they will give him a few games over the course of the year but that is not a lot to base picking him on.
NAB - showed he can find it pretty easily and runs very nicely. His skills though really let him down in senior company and that will stop him getting early chances. If he gets an extended run though he should score nicely.
The Guns
Rockliff (2011 – 112/113, 2012 – 115/118)
I had Rocky in my team from round 1 last year and loved the ride. I originally projected him for just under 100 but that was underselling him. Rocky moved from an outside in role in the first half of the year to an inside out role in the second half of the year and averaged 122/124 in the last 10 games. He upped his tackle rate a lot with the position switch as well as adding a couple more positions. He may get more attention this year but he doesn’t hurt enough atm to warrant a tag. 115/118 seems very achievable and he looks much fitter and harder than he has to date. He had a slight twinge before Xmas for a week or so but is back into it. He missed a couple of games last year but has good durability on the whole.
NAB - did not look his sharpest but even then was a scoring machine. Jump onboard.
Redden (2011 – 109/103, 2012 – 110/110)
At this time last year I projected he would be the Lion to go over 100 for the first time in some time and he didn’t let me down. I am expecting a consolidation year DT wise with a slight improvement SC wise due to more confidence personally and within the group around him. He should play the same role as last year and was very consistent with his scoring last year. He had one 60 DT game (and a 50 SC game) which I would expect to improve to an 80 this year which might see a slight improvement. There is scope for him to improve his possession count at 23.9 but I think he might drop his tackle count by a tackle or so which would offset the rise. He one of the next generation of DT stars and should be considered. Excellent durability.
NAB - had a couple of nice games but a poor game against Ess. The 132 DT against Carlton shows his scoring power. Nothing much has changed from my initial view.
Leuenberger (2011 – 93/102, 2012 – 99/108)
Voss let Leuey off the leash last year and he proved what a weapon he could be. I am really not projecting any real increase in his scoring as a ruck this year. He had a few games early last year where the coaching staff messed around with him up forward before accepting that he was one of the best rucks in the comp and they decided to play him there. His scoring up forward depressed his final results. It’s worth noting he averaged 103/121 over the last 9 games. He has a consecutive games streak of 44 which is second only to Cox amongst rucks so the durability concerns from early in his career are hopefully behind him. Hudson comes in and should play a fair bit which may reduce Leuenberger’s time in the middle a bit. I am still expecting a 60/40 ruck split in those game with Leuenberger spending another 20% of that time resting at FF where he might get a goal or two. There is some risk of reduced time in the middle but I expect his continued development to compensate for this.
NAB - has looked really out of sorts in the NAB. He has been poor and has not been scoring well as we fiddle around with the ruck set up. I would look elsewhere.
Hanley (2011 – 80/83, 2012 – 86/92)
Hanley was a borderline elite back this year just gone and I expect him to up his average a bit this year to get firmly into that lower end elite category. The Lions are playing more of a high possession game and that starts from the back. Hanley is the best runner and his disposal can be elite (it can also go awry on occasions as well) so the Lions like to use him a lot. I expect that to continue this year. The main problem is that with McGrath forward he is also the best defensive option for the small quicks and he is prone to quiet scoring games as a consequence. Last year was his first full year in the team though and I expect him to improve on the low scoring games this year. Golby in there helps free him up as well. Very durable play which helps compensate for the slightly lower ceiling than some similar options.
NAB - 87 and 84 DT in his last two games pretty much indicates what I think he will give you. Playing a mix of positions although pretty high when the whole team was in against Carlton. Trying to be freed up which is great for his scoring potential.
Rookies to consider
Zorko (2012 – 70)
Prelisted by GC and traded for by the Lions, Zorko was brought in to play. He is a mid who can go forward but will start his career with the Lions as a forward who can play in the midfield. I am expecting a season like we saw from similar types in Christensen and Dalhaus last year for their teams. He will be 22 when the season starts and has proven a dangerous forward at NEAFL level kicking a bag of 12 one day. He showed the ability to step up to a higher level dragging Qld back and scaring the hell out of WA in the interstate game last year. He has hardened up and looks ready to go for round 1. He will play time both up forward and through the middle and should be at the top of your fwd rookie lists.
NAB - not sighted due to a hip injury. Still no official word on how he is progressing. He will return through the ressies so keep an eye on him around downgrade time.
Bartlett (2012 – 72)
Bartlett is a big talent who is coming off two knee recos in a row which wiped out his chances of playing. He had done one of those before his draft and more than a few professional recruiters felt he was a top 10 talent before the injury. When he returned from the first injury he was named an emergency a few times before doing it again. He played a few games at the end of last year and was pretty good and Voss talked him up as one to watch this year shortly after the end of last season. He has been brought on carefully this offseason being on a modified program up until Christmas. He is in full training now and is doing extra running to make up time. I have high hopes for him and is one who should definitely be on your watch list. Chance for round 1 but more likely a downgrade target around week 6 or 7 after he has played a couple of games. Should score well.
NAB - played the last couple of ressies games and looks a bit short of match fitness. I still like him for the second half of the year but he looks rusty and will need time to build his engine.
Wrigley (2012 – 65)
He is only a rookie so will need to be promoted before he is eligible to play. Still he was brought in as a mature ager at 24 so the Lions might give him a run to see what he can do. He is a good runner and user of the ball and so if given a chance he could do reasonably well especially if there are injuries to the experienced guys down back.
NAB - did not get a run and does not look to be in the picture atm.
Docherty (2012 – 65)
DO NOT CONSIDER EARLY. He has had offseason hip surgery and has missed most of the hard conditioning work. It is going to take time for him to get up to speed and that means he is no chance for round 1. Still I can see the Lions wanting to get a good look at him this year given his kicking could be a real asset to the side. He will be a downgrade target for me once the cows come home from round 7 onwards.
NAB - played his first game in the ressies game against GC. Showed some glimpses but is a fair way off match fit. My initial assessment stands.
Others you may be considering
Brown (2011 – 67/73, 2012 – 83/88)
If you play Sportsbet he is definitely one to consider but I am not sure I go with the big fella in the other scoring systems. He is priced very nicely but he is a power forward who has turned 30 and the downhill run has started for him. He will still have big games but I question how often those games will come. He will likely play closer to goal than he did at his peak and whilst he will still be the focus of the attack hopefully there will be a few other targets up there as well this year. He had most of last year on the sidelines with facial issues which should freshen up his body but durability is a big concern with Browny. If you are going to get him get him early as I expect him to start with a bang.
NAB - expected back for round 3 after more face surgery. Has not looked great in game situations to date and I would look elsewhere.
Rich (2011 – 81/85, 2012 – 95/104)
The penny seems to have dropped for Rich this offseason and he by all accounts is working much harder. Whereas in previous years he was consistently at the back of the running packs this year he seems solidly midfield. The increased running ability will only help him up his scoring as will the attention Rockliff and Redden will have to be paid with the amount of ball they get. Rich will still be the number one tag target as he has been for the last two years but he is learning the deal with that better and his better engine should help him get free more. He also seems to be practicing in a receiving capacity at packs which might help up his possessions which sit just below 20 atm. He is an elite talent. Probably more of a SC than a DT option. Missed a couple of games last year but usually is very durable.
NAB - slowed by injury late in the preseason but was flying before that. Brought on reasonably slowly in the last two games but should be right for round 1 np. Showed against Carlton why he will get the tag every week. Ballsy pick.
Adcock (2011 – 84/90, 2012 – 78/82)
Interesting year for Adcock last year. Started like a house on fire but very quiet in the middle before finishing solidly. I think after the early period the Lions worked out they would be better getting it into the hands of the likes of Hanley and eventually other teams worked that out as well and left Adcock open more. This season I expect him to still be an important cog at the back but for the ball to be in hands of others more often especially if Drummond plays a significant amount and Docherty breaks into the side. Durability also has to be a concern with Jed always missing at least a few games.
NAB - great game against Carlton playing in the mids with a full team in. Came back to earth against Ess but with a midfield role looming he is definately worth considering.
Drummond (2011 – 65/75, 2012 – 80/95)
For those interested in taking a big gamble they could consider Drummond. Consider though that I don’t think he has ever played a full season and at 29 is coming off two seasons where he has played 7 games in each year and has only had one season in the last 6 where he has played over 13 games. He is the prototype for the type of guy you want to avoid on durability issues. Still if you are up for it there is plenty of upside in his price and its possible he could go well early and make it an easy sideways trade to another premium when he inevitably gets injured. He has been on a modified program this offseason but is tracking to be ready to role for round 1.
NAB - played in the ressies in the last week of the preseason. A chance for round 1 but I would not count on it. With his injury history I would not want to be on him coming off more injuries.
Harwood (2011 – 55-54, 2012 – 80-85)
For those considering a midpriced strategy he might be someone to keep in mind. Harwood was the talk of the early training sessions with the improvement in his running. He is another hard nut Tasmanian inside mid in the Mitch Robinson mould and is the type of player needed in the clearances for the Lions. He will throw his weight around, clear space and win the clearances that need to be won. By his own personal admission he wasn’t fit enough last year and did not get the games many like me expected. With a better engine he should get his chance and I expect a jump in scoring to ensue. With the bye structure this year there might be more people taking guys like Harwood to get through the byes. Initial job security may be an issue. Had a issue before Xmas and has been handled a little cautiously in the early new year but all seems good.
NAB - scored very well in limited minutes in the first two weeks (110 per 100mins) and dominated in the ressies the last two weeks. Despite him being in good form and being what we need he does not seem to be in favour with the coach. Look elsewhere.
The rest of the team
Banfield (2011 – 59/63, 2012 – 65/70)
WATCH IN THE PRESEASON. Banfield is actually a winger who has been playing in the forward line because of the pressure he applies defensively and the severe lack of other options in the small forward stakes. With McGrath and Zorko up there with a few other options it is very possible that Banfield could spend more time floating through the midfield. He offers pace and defensive pressure which is needed in the midfield and could be an attractive option as a low priced forward. If he plays the same role as last year then I won’t be considering him but if he is playing significant time through the midfield he definitely comes onto my radar especially with the severe lack of round 11 bye forwards.
NAB - has not been in good form. No signs of stepping up into relevance.
Beams (2011 – 43/37, 2012 – 60/60)
Not currently in the 22 which probably means stay away. He would play the same role as Zorko and if there were an injury there then he may come in the picture although still he would be competing with Sheldon and Green. He is capable of scoring well but playing as a defensive forward last year did not allow him to take advantage of that. If he got a chance in the back half or through the middle then you might consider but too much risk for me.
NAB - looked pretty good in the preseason and has solidified a spot in the 22. He is a capable scorer but you are better off going with a rookie priced player.
Bewick (2011 – 47/38, 2012 – 50/50)
He was given every chance last year playing 12 games but did not deliver on the promise shown in the GC preseason game. With guys like O’Brien, Polec, Bartlett, Hawksley, Yeo, Weardon and possibly Hanley and Banfield as well as others like Beams and Green, contesting for an outside slot I struggle to see him getting a game based on exposed form. A pass for me.
NAB - struggled in the AFL but looked very good in the ressies. Will get some games but also likely to be in and out of the side. Still a pass for me.
Black (2011 – 91/94, 2012 – 82/85)
Black has been astoundingly consistent throughout his career scoring wise but at 33 at the beginning of the season I think his scoring will start to decline. He has had OP for a lot of years and with the young guard starting to take control of the midfield he will step back a little. It’s been a long time since Black has been considered an elite mid for DT/SC purposes and I don’t expect that to change at 33.
NAB - same old same old.
Buchanan (2011 – 57/56, 2012 – 55/55)
Purely a depth player at this stage of his career and one who if selected will play as a defensive forward. He should score pretty well through the midfield in the reserves but that is not going to do you any good in DT or SC. Do not consider.
NAB - got a couple of games with limited TOG. Expect similar during the season.
Justin Clarke (2012 – 0/0)
Rookie listed KPD from rural SA does not exactly scream pick me. He might well end up being a nice player for us but it won’t be this year. Do not consider.
NAB - looked pretty good in the intra club and ressies matches. Got some nice skills and showed he could be a running defensive option. If picked later in the year I will consider him.
Cornelius (2011 – 45/49, 2012 – 68/75)
Mitch Clark’s position is open and for me it either goes to Lisle or Cornelius. Cornelius is the more dangerous player and is working a lot harder this preseason to secure his shot. Still trails the field in the runs too often though. He will get his chance and a couple of goals a game and improved defensive effort should keep him in the side. Probably has not improved his running enough to get around the ground and score enough to pick him though. Watch but doubtful to be worth picking.
NAB - has worked hard to improve his running but does not enjoy the faith of the coach. Can't pick him.
Crisp (2012 – 0/0)
Rookie mid who will be relying on injuries to get a look in. He is a hard worker though particularly defensively and if he got a chance he might score okay. He was unlucky to be overlooked in the National Draft and there is talent there. He would not be the first one I ruled out of DT/SC contention for this year.
NAB - got lots of chances in the NAB and has to be a chance for early selection. Even if picked though has to be a sub and his scoring has not been great.
Dyson (2011 – 31/30, 2012 – 45/45)
He will be a third year rookie this year so the pressure is on him. He will probably get a go at some stage but it’s hard to see him getting enough games to make him a worthwhile selection.
NAB - did not get any NAB time. A fair way off being picked atm.
Golby (2011- 53/51, 2012 – 62/65)
Promoted for this season and would have to be in the mix even with everyone fit. Playing him allows Hanley to be freed up to run off. Improved as he played more games last year and should do so again this year but I don’t see his role as allowing him to become a big scorer. Not someone I am consider atm.
NAB - has looked really good this NAB and is rock solid in the side now. I am upgrading the expectation to 70-75 for DT and 75-80 for SC. He has a good DT game but he will still get defensive roles to free up McGrath and Hanley (and Drummond when he returns). If those guys are out he has shown very good scoring potential playing in the freer roles. One to watch for the future but maybe not this year unless there is an injury.
Green (2011 – 46/45, 2012 – 72/75)
WATCH IN THE PRESEASON. Excellent scorer as a junior and if he looks like he has secured a regular spot in the midfield jump aboard. I am thinking he probably won’t though initially and will dominate the ressies and force his way into the team. Depending on when he debuts he is one I am considering to address the bye problems this year. He has the talent and is pretty nicely priced.
NAB - has not have much of a chance to play through the midfield in the NAB. Up forward he did not score much. In the ressies he has looked good and I still expect him to dominate there before forcing his way into the seniors hopefully in a mid role. You can't pick him though.
Harvey (2012 – 45/45)
Did not report in shape but apparently has been shining of late. Played out of position in the reserves last year but that experience could maybe help him in the long run. He is strong and is the second fastest player ever tested at Combine so he has pace. Could be brought in to do defensive jobs on quick forwards later in the year but I would not expect him to score particularly well. Not in my plans atm.
NAB - got games in the first two weeks and I liked what I saw. Not a big scorer but solid defensively and with the ball. He will not start early in the year though and will be relying on injuries for a shot.
Hawksley (2011 – 60/63, 2012 – 60/65)
Did not play much last year but finished with a career best game against Sydney racking up 27 possessions playing as a HFFer from memory. He played very well in that game and if he secured a spot in the team and repeated that sort of game with some regularity then he would need to be considered. Personally though I think he faces too much competition for a DT/SC relevant role. He is a pass for me.
NAB - can get it when given a good role but burns it too often. Probably about 25 on the list and is another who will need an injury.
Hudson (2011 – 74/83, 2012 – 52/57)
Never a great option in DT/SC and playing as a back-up to Leuey is not going to help him. I am thinking the coaching staff might also want to get a few games into Longer as well and Hudson might have 5 or 6 games in the ressies. Even if something happened to Leuey I would probably look elsewhere.
NAB - somewhat surprisingly appears behind Longer. Never a DT/SC option anyway this just further solidifies things.
Karnezis (2011 – 48/51, 2012 – 64/68)
WATCH IN THE PRESEASON. Karnezis might be a bit too valuable in the forward line for him to be DT/SC relevant. He is a talented kid who I think could run nicely on a flank and play in a Fyfe type role. He is however one of the few dangerous forwards we have and so I think he stays closer to goal. Still watch the preseason and if he is playing quite a bit up on the wing don’t be afraid to jump aboard. With the hair cut and more weight on his bones chances are you won’t recognise him at the start of the year.
NAB - has been disappointing this offseason and seems to struggle to get open when carrying more weight. You can't pick him based on exposed form.
Lester (2011 – 47/51, 2012 – 65/65)
WATCH IN THE PRESEASON. He only played 3 games last year and it’s a bit of a shame he didn’t get a discount. He cracked the team for round 1 as a rookie and seems like a bit of a favourite of Voss playing as a forward utility. Seems to be training in that same role this year and it’s looking atm like they might find room for both he and Karnezis. Lester has the advantage of being able to play in the back half and through the midfield and if he gets time in those spots he might be worth considering. At the moment he is not really in my thinking but he is one I will be watching in the preseason.
NAB - looks solidly in the side. Playing down back in the last couple of games is encouraging but I am not sure his scoring potential warrants picking him. I am thinking his scoring will be in the 55-60 range now.
Lisle (2011 – 55/54, 2012 – 55/55)
He has been training with the forward group and is competing with Cornlius and Retzlaff for a spot in the side. Even if he wins the spot initially I do not see his position as being at all secure as he is simply the least goal scoring threat of the three and a lack of production on the scoreboard will put pressure on him. He could swing into the backline if there are injuries there and he may be a more attractive option back there. At the moment though he is not on my radar.
NAB - shown very little scoring wise and consigned to the ressies the last two weeks. Look elsewhere.
Longer (2012 – 45)
First year ruckman with Leuenberger and Hudson ahead of him. Even if one of those went down its hard to see him getting much game time or scoring particularly well. Expect him to get a half dozen games this year but they will be spread out. I like him for the future but not this year where he starts at an inflated price anyway given he is a high draft pick.
NAB - has shown some form up forward with Brown out and looking like he will get a few early games. Getting well beaten in the ruck contest though and expect him to be in and out of the side. There are better cheaper options.
Maguire (2011 - 46/51, 2012 – 45/50)
Not in my 22 and for me he is key position depth only. Even if he does start he is not a fantasy player. He should not be in your side.
NAB - scoring wise he has been pretty good but you still cannot pick him.
McGrath (2011 – 65/72, 2012 – 54/60)
He pulled out a couple of big games last year when he was moved around a fair bit including through the midfield. That may happen this year but I would not rely on it. He should start the year in the forward pocket and for the first time in a while his spot is not guaranteed. He has never been a particularly good fantasy player and I am not expecting that to change at 28. Turning up one of the very few out of shape would not have endeared him to the coaches.
NAB - looks like he might be freed up a bit more this year to link up but at his age I still cannot see him suddenly becoming a fantasy player.
McKeever (2011 – 41/42, 2012 – 55/56)
I like McKeever a lot as a prospect but for DT/SC purposes he is still a young KPD. He would be a bit ahead of Merrett as far as options out of defense go but he is a fair way behind everyone else. I expect that to improve but not enough this year for me to pick him. McKeever is one of the best runners at the club and once he sorts his game out he could be an option but I think that is a season or two away.
NAB - played the last few games but did not go particularly well. His spot remains in serious doubt and he did not suddenly show that he will be fantasy relevant.
Merrett (2011 – 59/86, 2012 – 55/60)
Who said the big guy was not fantasy relevant. 86 wtf??? Anyway expect a return to earth this year. Big Rog was is a crucial element of our defensive unit but a fantasy star he is not.
NAB - returned from injury and now he looks like he will start at FF. More reason to avoid.
Michael (2012 – 0/0)
Michael is a rookie listed guy who grew last year and is now a legitimate ruck size. Expect this to be a year where he learns the ins and outs of his new trade in the reserves whilst the team gets a look at what they have on their hands. I don’t expect him to get any games this year in the 1’s.
NAB - doing okay in the ressies as a KPD but not sighted in the NAB. As above.
Newell (2012 – 0/0)
Newell has been killing the running at the club and has broken the 3km record a couple of times so far. Despite that though he is still a rookie with a few rough edges to brush off. He has been with the team a year (last year under scholarship) so he might be closer than he otherwise would be but I still think we are a year away from seeing him get regular games. He would be putting some pressure on Raines for the tagging role which is good to see.
NAB - I thought we would have gotten to see more of him than we did. Only got one game and was composed in the half game he got. Showed good ability to find the ball. Watch for him later in the year maybe.
O’Brien (2011 – 52/47, 2012 – 65/65)
WATCH IN THE PRESEASON. Showed some touches of class last year and with a bit of improvement in the physical aspects of the game he could be right in the coaches thinking for a wing spot. He is one of the true bust out chances for the Lions and 65/65 could be underselling him. The one thing against picking him this year is that he is a mid only whereas last year he was much more attractive as a fwd/back.
NAB - fringe 22 still and got a bit of it in limited TOG. His spot is too much in danger to consider him.
Patfull (2011 – 38/48, 2012 – 40/45)
Plays as a third tall/CHB and does not score as well as he should in that position. He defends well which saves his spot but it’s not out of the question that he could be overtaken this year. Whatever though, DT and SC are not his games.
NAB - he continues to not be DT/SC relevant and Lester might challenge for his spot sooner rather than later.
Polec (2011 – 62/51, 2012 – 65/65)
Has had an interrupted preseason and is still not fully back into it. Accordingly I expect him to start in the ressies and have to earn a spot from there. Even once he makes the team I have yet to see anything which makes me think he will be a high DT/SC scorer in the near future.
NAB - looks pretty good in the preseason and I now expect him to start week 1 in the seniors. Has gotten better the longer we have gone in the NAB. I still wouldn't pick him but I might throw a couple of bucks on him in the RS.
Polkinghorne (2011 – 68/66, 2012 – 60/60)
Polks could potentially be a break out candidate but equally he could lose his midfield spot and be relegated to the forward line or the reserves. It looks as though he may have upped his running ability this offseason but he needs to be able to turn that into more ball winning ability. The competition is now hot for midfield spots from the likes of Harwood, Green, Bartlett and Zorko and if Polkinghorne does not perform then he could be in trouble. I struggle to see him being a top shelf mid personally and think he might get overtaken this year.
NAB - looks to have gone backwards. Coach still loves him but his spot has to be major doubt.
Raines (2011 – 60/58, 2012 – 55/55)
Hard to believe Raines is only 25 still. Anyway he is our number 1 tagger and did a pretty reasonable job of it last year. His disposal skills are still very poor (although maybe slightly better last year) and until that changes his spot is always going to be under threat. Anyway you should all know the tagger rule – avoid them like the plague.
NAB - injured and not sighted.
Retzlaff (2011 – 35/38, 2012 – 45/45)
He will get some games you would have to think but he is outside the 22 atm and will need to force his way in there. He is very athletic and can cover some ground but I don’t think he runs to great spots and may lack a little in the football smarts. All up there are much better options at his price cheap though it is.
NAB - as above.
Sheldon (2011 – 53/55, 2012 – 48/50)
He had a run of pretty reasonable games toward the end of last year and was in our 22 for most of the year. With that said I would not have in my best 22 with his spot going to Zorko and even if he was I am not taking a defensive forward with no goal scoring ability for DT/SC purposes. It’s worth noting that he has also been in the hospital group a lot this offseason as well. Nup.
NAB - did not show much in the way of development in the NAB and probably has lost his spot to Beams.
Staker (2011 – 54/67, 2012 – 0/0)
Out for the year (or as good as) with a knee reco.
Stiller (2011 – 65/70, 2012 – 60/65)
One of his best seasons last year but unlike early in his career he was not playing as a free wheeling wing but as a run-with in the defensive half. Still finds it reasonably well but he is not a preferred option coming out of defense and I see little upside in him. If his form declines his spot also comes under pressure from Docherty and perhaps Golby if he is not in the side to start the year. Not someone I would be picking.
NAB - solid, capable scorer but he slows the game up every time he gets the ball. Drummond should come in for him as soon as he is right to go. Docherty also a major threat to him.
Wearden (2012 – 0/0)
I think Wearden was taken on potential a fair bit and this year will be all about development through the reserves. I find it hard to see him getting any games.
NAB - got one half in the seniors and did a couple of nice things. Not a chance for early games though.
Yeo (2012 – 45/45)
Physically underdeveloped I think Yeo will be brought on slowly and made to earn his stripes. There is a lot of competition for spots through the midfield amongst the Lions youngsters and I haven’t seen much to set him apart from the pack. I think they will give him a few games over the course of the year but that is not a lot to base picking him on.
NAB - showed he can find it pretty easily and runs very nicely. His skills though really let him down in senior company and that will stop him getting early chances. If he gets an extended run though he should score nicely.
