Racing August Daily Punt - Randwick Only In Afgladystan

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Looks to me to be Bohemoth's race to lose from Tofane with IG the wildcard. The rest of the field is yuk

I'd tend to agree, wouldn't surprise but would be unlikely for a horse like SOA excuses last start can you forgive... Colette could pull one out of the bag early in the prep like she has done. IG maybe a touch short in trip first start new trainer.
 
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Have annihilated the $13 boosted for Inspirational Girl, SP wise is the first gift of the spring from bookies with NFI

Her SP's over are only about 0.5-1.0L ahead of Red Can Man SPs/Perforamnces. the mile starts are not exactly big SPs they just read well as low rating races going in with low weight. The Railway/KT were really expected to be quite weak heading in. Distance is of concern, will explain how i see it with her WA ratings. I am still confident if she turns up for Danny she will go close in Makybes/Mackinnons.

Her first prep was a bit of a education runs, they were quite unremarkable just a normal nice bob horse over shorter trips, looked like she had more but quite low rating to point where she didn't start fave first up in a poor 1400 1mw race in her 2nd prep.

2nd prep, First up 1400 puts in a good run clear PB in poor race then next start up to the mile goes +2.5L better and then comes back slightly over the mile again on very firm/bias ground but wins and immediately spelled.

Comes back in the winter. Goes new PB 1400m starts looking like stakes horse. 2nd up goes +2.5L on that mark she suddenly looks like carnival horse.

4th prep comes out runs same mark as previous prep over 1400 but does not win this time, fitness gets her a length or so in her next few starts without going past her previous best in the winter. Steps up to railway mile goes +2.5L better and then holds over 1800.

3 consecutive preps improves +2.5L to the mile over her previous PB and last start. 2nd, 2nd and 4th up and holds over only start at 1800. Just screams wants further, might all go away with maturity as genuine miler but looks genuine 2000m horse to my eye especially once you break down her sectionals.
 
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brave man taking stay inside at that price given what we know about slipper winners recently...

Sort of, but winning golden slippers is not a negative the negative factor is being up and about quickly (precocious) and that improvement may not follow it into its 3yo season at rate of other horses. A good portion of slipper winners maintain at the top of the crop at spring 3yo it’s just some don’t. Deserves fave until proven otherwise IMO. For instance I think Shaquero/Remarque/sword of state would be as big a risk to not come back.

That said yes I’m always a favour new season/winter horses type guy.
 
brave man taking stay inside at that price given what we know about slipper winners recently...

Only way to play the race if that price holds up - lay it and have all the improvers running for you - truly insane price but entirely on expectations given pricing of recent Slipper winners.
 

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Will be interesting to see if Sword of State is another Our Maizcay

must be a query to run on a wet track given revealed preference from back in the autumn.
 
Will be interesting to see if Sword of State is another Our Maizcay

Have to say I was concerned by the pressure it was put under in a trial. Didn’t look great. Stay Inside second trial finished marginally ahead of it but did it much easier and touch stronger late.

Also looked smaller and less developed than Stay Inside who’s a known small horse.
 
6.5 length win on a Soft 7 and by Snitzel. Not sure id be running from wet tracks

Only loss is on a good track too. I think the "avoid wet track" thinking came up when he won their big 2yo race and instead of coming out and saying, we are squibbing this 1400 or squibbing going to the much more difficult Sydney, they blamed the track and spelled him.

Had not much more he had to prove at that point but feels they just chose words carefully like most stallion prospects.
 
6.5 length win on a Soft 7 and by Snitzel. Not sure id be running from wet tracks

lol don’t you remember last autumn? They were all set to come for the slipper but squibbed it because of the tracks.
 
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