Opinion AUSTRALIAN Politics: Adelaide Board Discussion Part 5

[Cap]

Our 2PP system, whilst not perfect is hardly a reason Dan Andrews keeps getting elected. Having family in Vic I can only go by their views that Matt Guy was really unliked.

We could move to proportional distribution I guess.

But It feels like people like to blame 2PP when they are unpopular, but scream mandate when they win 2PP elections.

Edit - that's not condoning Andrews either, heck he should have been kicked out for the red shirt saga or signing the Belt and Road initiative.

 

[Slippery Pete]

It’s not that it’s to blame, it’s that you need to know how to exploit it.

The ALP did it in the last federal election, despite Albanese not being at all popular.

 

[Mr_Moogle]

On another note, did you ever think to ask this question about Donald Trump in 2016, and even today given his enduring popularity relative to most other candidates?

It seems your reasoning for the Trump phenomenon is that there’s just too many uneducated deplorable dipshits in MAGA hats.

But when it comes to Dan Andrews, you‘re keen to explore whether there’s more to it than meets the eye.

How do you square those two outlooks?

I don't have to ask that about Trump. The rampant dog whistling in his campaigning makes it pretty obvious why he's charismatic to a certain kind of person. It's much harder to see with Andrews who, to an outsider not versed in Victorian politics, comes across like many other Australian politicians.

Also a higher percentage of uneducated/less educated people voting MAGA is not proven by my reasoning Pete, it's proven by exit polling.

 

[Cap]

It’s not that it’s to blame, it’s that you need to know how to exploit it.

The ALP did it in the last federal election, despite Albanese not being at all popular.

You do, but at the end of the day the less popular party still gets voted out.

Sure, there are instances where small parties get a seat because they manipulated it, completely agree there.

I also agree Albo isn't 'popular ' I mean I wouldn't vote for the guy, I wouldn't vote for Dutton either and at the next election I'll try to find a vote for anyone but Labor and Liberal.

But for instance the last election I completely accept the will of the people was to get rid of the LNP, even if they didn't want Labor. They still voted in a pattern to remove the LNP.

Not my quote, but a famous one, opposition parties don't win elections, Govts lose them.

 

[MrKK]

Our 2PP system, whilst not perfect is hardly a reason Dan Andrews keeps getting elected. Having family in Vic I can only go by their views that Matt Guy was really unliked.

We could move to proportional distribution I guess.

But It feels like people like to blame 2PP when they are unpopular, but scream mandate when they win 2PP elections.

Edit - that's not condoning Andrews either, heck he should have been kicked out for the red shirt saga or signing the Belt and Road initiative.

Labor have done much better than Liberal recently in maintaining their preferences on a 2PP basis. Both parties' primary votes have fallen by similar amounts.

A generalisation, but disgruntled Liberal voters want to punish them with their preferences while disgruntled Labor voters will punish them on primary vote but keep supporting them on 2PP.

 

[Cap]

Labor have done much better than Liberal recently in maintaining their preferences on a 2PP basis. Both parties' primary votes have fallen by similar amounts.

Agreed both major parties are on the nose.

A generalisation, but disgruntled Liberal voters want to punish them with their preferences while disgruntled Labor voters will punish them on primary vote but keep supporting them on 2PP.

If that's true, that should tell you how unpopular LNP policies are.

I mean there is not voting for the party and there is making sure they don't even get your preference. You need to dislike their policies a lot to go to that length.

 

[arrowman]

This merger continues to sound like a very expensive mistake. I still don't get how it will benefit students or Adelaide.

‘Lumbering dinosaur’: Former VC’s fears about uni merger

indaily.com.au

Wow, he really nailed it.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

It’s not that it’s to blame, it’s that you need to know how to exploit it.

The ALP did it in the last federal election, despite Albanese not being at all popular.

He was far more popular than ScoMo which was a massive factor.

 

[Vader]

He was far more popular than ScoMo which was a massive factor.

To be fair, syphilis is more than popular than ScoMo was.

On SM-A5360 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

To be fair, syphilis is more than popular than ScoMo was.

On SM-A5360 using BigFooty.com mobile app

Most of the population realised he was the least genuine PM in my lifetime.

 

[Vader]

Most of the population realised he was the least genuine PM in my lifetime.

Like Andrew O'Keeffe, he was as authentic as a $3 note.

On SM-A5360 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Like Andrew O'Keeffe, he was as authentic as a $3 note.

On SM-A5360 using BigFooty.com mobile app

ScoMo may have been more palatable if he was under the influence though lol.

But then harder to lie with a straight face.

 

[PeterSalt]

He was far more popular than ScoMo which was a massive factor.

I have a problem with happy clapping folk like Abbott and Scomo who place their personal beliefs over and above what the general population want.


I don't give a rats arse what they do in their own time. But fmd, they're elected to represent the common folk and should leave the sky fairies BS for Sunday's

 

[Mr_Moogle]

It was amazing watching Scomo blunder into PR disaster after PR disaster. Had no political instincts at all. I know he won an election but I think that was more down to Labor's incompetence.

 

[Cap]

 

[MrKK]

2022 v 2018 Vic results were very interesting

2022 State election results

www.vec.vic.gov.au

2018 State election results

Results for the 2018 State election.

www.vec.vic.gov.au

ALP primary vote dropped 5.5% but they won 1 more seat.
LNP primary vote only dropped 0.8% and number of seats unchanged.
ALP 2.7% ahead on primary vote but won a landslide in terms of seats. Preferences didn't determine the winner but had a huge influence on the margin.

 

[Cap]

2022 v 2018 Vic results were very interesting

2022 State election results

www.vec.vic.gov.au

2018 State election results

Results for the 2018 State election.

www.vec.vic.gov.au

ALP primary vote dropped 5.5% but they won 1 more seat.
LNP primary vote only dropped 0.8% and number of seats unchanged.
ALP 2.7% ahead on primary vote but won a landslide in terms of seats. Preferences didn't determine the winner but had a huge influence on the margin.

As I said, people only seem to complain about 2PP when they are losing.

 

[MrKK]

As I said, people only seem to complain about 2PP when they are losing.

Who's complaining? I find election statistics and trends interesting. I favour our preference voting system over the UK's first-past-the-post but both are miles better than proportional representation.

 

[Cap]

Who's complaining? I find election statistics and trends interesting. I favour our preference voting system over the UK's first-past-the-post but both are miles better than proportional representation.

Sorry wasn't referring to you.

I just notice it becomes a thing when parties don't get in, it was just funny that tweet came up as it was being discussed.

I'm in favour of 2PP as well, seems to be the best option.

 

[MrKK]

Sorry wasn't referring to you.

I just notice it becomes a thing when parties don't get in, it was just funny that tweet came up as it was being discussed.

I'm in favour of 2PP as well, seems to be the best option.

To be pedantic, our system is STV - single transferable vote.

2PP refers to the method of initially counting votes to give the earliest indication of who will win each seat and therefore who can form government.

For each seat it is assumed who the 2 most popular candidates will be. During the count, whenever the counters come across a voting paper with neither of those 2 as the first choice, they will record which of the 2 is preferenced higher. It's a rough prediction of how preferences will eventually be distributed when the full count is complete.

Occasionally they assume the wrong 2 candidates, usually when there is a strong independent or a minor party is particularly popular in that seat e.g. Greens in Brisbane seats at the last Federal election. It doesn't effect the final result but will give inaccurate predictions on the night.

 

[Cap]

I've asked the main board, not many answers but no opposition seems to be the winner in Vic

 

[Cap]

The old Group ticket voting.

 

[MrKK]

The old Group ticket voting.

Every other jurisdiction seems to function fine without it and minor parties still manage to get elected to upper houses.

 

[MsTopG]

He was far more popular than ScoMo which was a massive factor.

Not a high bar. Scomo was the most unpopular leader this country has ever seen.

 

[MsTopG]

RBA: Australia paralysed by 'burnout economics' - MacroBusiness

RBA: Australia paralysed by 'burnout economics'

Tarric Brooker, an independent economist, coined the term “burnout economics” to describe the current state of the Australian economy. According to Brooker, the Albanese government has one foot planted firmly on the accelerator with its record immigration program, while the RBA has one foot...

www.macrobusiness.com.au