Avian Flu

[Dry Rot]

Worth keeping an eye on this in Toronto. Dead birds were found on a local golf course.

Commentary
.
Mystery Illness in Toronto Kills Healthy Staff Member

Recombinomics Commentary
October 5, 2005

So far nine of the 10 fatalities have been senior citizens residing in a retirement home where the outbreak began, but one of the victims was a healthy staff member.

The death of a healthy staff member is cause for concern.** Although daily press releases have provided basic numbers, the missing detail has created confusion.** It is unclear how many of the hospitalized are elderly residents, and how many are hospital staff or visitors.** The lowering of the infected vistors from 3 to 2 is also confusing.

More detail on the number of staff or visitors hospitalized would be useful as would more detail on the group of patients. It is unclear how many are in serious or critical condition or how many are on respirators.

More detail on how the illness is presenting or progressing would also be useful.

Failure to identify an etiological agent has cast doubt on the negative data on known pathogens.** The number of hospitalized residents, staff, and visitors suggests this is not a "garden variety" virus, and more detail on the patients would be useful to eliminate H5N1 or SARS-like coronaviruses as likely candidates.

 

[LIONS then DAYLIGHT]

Interesting theory.

Spanish Flu was particularly fatal against not the young and the old but young adults with the best immune systems.

What kills with H5N1 is the reaction of your immune system vs the virus.

Good luck with your Olive Oil.

Dry Rot i think one of the reasons spanish flu had such a deveasting effect on young people was the fact that in 1918/1919 the world was in the grip of World War 1

Therefore, young people in battle would be subjected to the flu virus more than other people.

 

[dees178]

Yeah, Yeah I have heard this all before. Bird flu is coming and we're all going to die. Before this it was SARS and who's heard of that in the last 1 and a half years. I heard a report on this in March that it was meant to be in Australia by April...
It's not, how dissapointing.

 

[campbell]

Interesting theory.

Spanish Flu was particularly fatal against not the young and the old but young adults with the best immune systems.

What kills with H5N1 is the reaction of your immune system vs the virus.

Good luck with your Olive Oil.

I would believe a pharmacist over some un qualified person I am afraid.

Makes sense to me to get my immune system up to its best ever ability to then fight any disease that may come my way.


Also if this thing does occur it will be nixed bigtime in Australia, we have far better hygeine standards than Indonesia.

 

[CharlieG]

What kills with H5N1 is the reaction of your immune system vs the virus.

I don't understand this - how so?

As for closing borders - I suspect Australia would do this, but there would be hell to pay if they weren't letting in Aussie citizens. They'd probably set up quarantine camps if they had to, near the airports... but surely they'd get them back here.

 

[Dry Rot]

I would believe a pharmacist over some un qualified person I am afraid.

Makes sense to me to get my immune system up to its best ever ability to then fight any disease that may come my way.

Your pharamcist is a dill or just ignorant - comments below relate to three flu pandemics, not just Spanish Flu:

"During pandemics, a major difference compared with seasonal flu that is the highest death rates are among the healthy 20 to 30 year old adults. This is in contrast with the seasonal flu that strikes the very old, the young, and the infirm the hardest. Of course, the usual victims of seasonal flu are not spared during pandemics. On the contrary, death rates are much higher for every age and risk group during pandemics compared with seasonal flu.

The point here is that the age 20 to 30 year group, usually immune to the ravages of seasonal flu, experiences the highest death rates of any group during pandemic years. Ironically, one possible explanation for this pandemic observation may relate to the increased health and vigor of this groups immune system.

From Preparing for the Coming
Influenza Pandemic by Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP

Also if this thing does occur it will be nixed bigtime in Australia, we have far better hygeine standards than Indonesia.

And if you believe this, you are a dill. Why has Abbott purchased 4 million doses of Tamiflu?

In your view, he should have spent our money on Pineocleen.

 

[Dry Rot]

Commentary
.
H5N1 Bird Flu Cases in Indonesia Grow to 89

Recombinomics Commentary
October 6, 2005

They were spread in 9 provinces that is the Special Capital District of Jakarta (45 cases), Banten (13 cases), West Java (10 cases), Central Java (3 cases), East Java (3 cases), South Sulawesi (4 cases), North Sumatra (1 case), East Kalimantan (1 case) and Lampung (3 cases) and 2 cases were not yet known by his province origin.

From this case whole, 11 people among them died (3 people from 4 cases confirm, 2 people from 11 cases probable and 6 people from 69 cases suspek).

The number of suspected H5N1 bird flu cases has grown to 89 as of Thursday.** The breakdown of the 84 cases from Wednesday are listed above.** The cases are increasing daily and media coverage of the specifics has diminished.** Cases are increasingly being reported as composite numbers.

The distribution shows that the cases are spread across the country (see Indonesia map), although most are in the Jakarta area (see Jakarta map).** The number of cases reported a week ago was 42, so the increase in cases has been rapid.**

 

[LIONS then DAYLIGHT]

Yeah, Yeah I have heard this all before. Bird flu is coming and we're all going to die. Before this it was SARS and who's heard of that in the last 1 and a half years. I heard a report on this in March that it was meant to be in Australia by April...
It's not, how dissapointing.

I think that attitude is very complacent and, as you say, it most likely will end up like that, but, there is still a chance that this could develop into a serious situation. We should all just be careful and aware.

 

[- PC -]

I think that attitude is very complacent and, as you say, it most likely will end up like that, but, there is still a chance that this could develop into a serious situation. We should all just be careful and aware.

I agree..but should we let it dominate our lives to the extent we forget about other issues in the world? Like IR reform? Or selling Telstra? You know real important stuff. I think the Australian Government has a handle on anything that may happen. If you recall when the SARS virus was around they enacted the quarantine laws which gives them the power to isolate people immediately.

 

[campbell]

Your pharamcist is a dill or just ignorant - comments below relate to three flu pandemics, not just Spanish Flu:

"During pandemics, a major difference compared with seasonal flu that is the highest death rates are among the healthy 20 to 30 year old adults. This is in contrast with the seasonal flu that strikes the very old, the young, and the infirm the hardest. Of course, the usual victims of seasonal flu are not spared during pandemics. On the contrary, death rates are much higher for every age and risk group during pandemics compared with seasonal flu.

The point here is that the age 20 to 30 year group, usually immune to the ravages of seasonal flu, experiences the highest death rates of any group during pandemic years. Ironically, one possible explanation for this pandemic observation may relate to the increased health and vigor of this groups immune system.

From Preparing for the Coming
Influenza Pandemic by Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP



And if you believe this, you are a dill. Why has Abbott purchased 4 million doses of Tamiflu?

In your view, he should have spent our money on Pineocleen.

So your qualifcations are exactly what?
I am a qualified health professional.

it is far better for every person to have their immune system in as good a shape as it can possibly be before ANY illness outbreak.


The tamiflu their have brought is only 4 million doses.We have 22 million people.

 

[Dry Rot]

So your qualifcations are exactly what?
I am a qualified health professional.

it is far better for every person to have their immune system in as good a shape as it can possibly be before ANY illness outbreak.


The tamiflu their have brought is only 4 million doses.We have 22 million people.

I have no health qualifiactions at all. My humble self has just been working with a risk management consultant who is working in this field. My unqualified work has meant that I have read WHO reports, Centre for Disease Control reports, Fed dept of Health stuff, speeches by Tony Abbott and various papers on the subject.

Perhaps you should do some research yourself?

I don't disagree with your comment re immune systems generally (I take astragalus myself for this) but clearly this was not a defence against past flu pandemics and indeed perversely those with the best immune systems got hit hardest.

"In 1918-19, most deaths were caused by a virusinduced response of the victim's immune system -- a cytokine storm -- which led to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). In other words, in the process of fighting the disease, a person's immune system severely damaged the lungs, resulting in death. Victims of H5N1 have also suffered from cytokine storms, and the world is not much better prepared to treat millions of cases of ARDS today than it was 85 years ago."

 

[campbell]

I have no health qualifiactions at all. My humble self has just been working with a risk management consultant who is working in this field. My unqualified work has meant that I have read WHO reports, Centre for Disease Control reports, Fed dept of Health stuff, speeches by Tony Abbott and various papers on the subject.

Perhaps you should do some research yourself?

I don't disagree with your comment re immune systems generally (I take astragalus myself for this) but clearly this was not a defence against past flu pandemics and indeed perversely those with the best immune systems got hit hardest.

"In 1918-19, most deaths were caused by a virusinduced response of the victim's immune system -- a cytokine storm -- which led to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). In other words, in the process of fighting the disease, a person's immune system severely damaged the lungs, resulting in death. Victims of H5N1 have also suffered from cytokine storms, and the world is not much better prepared to treat millions of cases of ARDS today than it was 85 years ago."

We as humans have evolved since then.When that occured there was the Great War.

I personally think that medical science has lept ahead in leaps and bounds since then.The initial warnings and presursor stuff would help quarantine Australia.


I am sorry, I would not trust a word Abbott said.In everything I have read by this man, it is politicising at its worst.I assume they are stocking up for 1/6 of Austrlains to receive 1 dose.I don't know why.

May it has already mutated in Indonesia and they are not telling us all we should no.

But I really think that the health issues in 1918 are diffrent o nowadays.I think our dietand medicines are vatly upgraded, and forwarewarning and acutally quarantinging is vastly improved.These things have to make a difference.


They will have an emergency plan in place for Australia, it won't be pretty, but it will be effective.

 

[Dry Rot]

We as humans have evolved since then.When that occured there was the Great War.

I personally think that medical science has lept ahead in leaps and bounds since then.The initial warnings and presursor stuff would help quarantine Australia.

But I really think that the health issues in 1918 are diffrent o nowadays.I think our dietand medicines are vatly upgraded, and forwarewarning and acutally quarantinging is vastly improved.These things have to make a difference.

They will have an emergency plan in place for Australia, it won't be pretty, but it will be effective.

Have you done research on any of this? If you PM me an email address, I'm happy to send you some stuff.

My comments above also applied to the pandemics since 1918.

What's changed since 1918? On the positive side, we have anti-viral drugs available and massive advances in respoiratory care and pathology.

But

We don't have a vaccine (will take month to produce in quantities) and modern trvel means that the pandemic could spread like wildfire. SARS is much less infectious than flu, and went around the world in a day or two.

I am sorry, I would not trust a word Abbott said.In everything I have read by this man, it is politicising at its worst.I assume they are stocking up for 1/6 of Austrlains to receive 1 dose.I don't know why.

They will have an emergency plan in place for Australia, it won't be pretty, but it will be effective.

Again, you really should do some research. I hate Abboitt but I really admire what he has done here ie making preparations and keeeping low key on this (the media has finally focussed on it recently). Re anti-virals, we have the second highest per capita stockpile in the world after Finland.

 

[Dry Rot]

Infections of birds by avian bird flu now spreading into Europe and other parts of Asia:

Commentary
.
H5N1 Wild Bird Flu Outbreak In The Philippines?

Recombinomics Commentary
October 7, 2005

Philippine authorities were investigating possible bird flu in the sudden deaths of 50 chickens in a village north of Manila, an official said Friday.

Blood samples have already been taken from at least two of the birds in a village outside Calumpit, about 40 kilometers (25 miles) northwest of Manila, the same town where a low-risk version of bird flu was discovered in a duck farm in July.

The above commentary suggest that H5N1 wild bird flu may have entered the Philippines.** There have been reports of H5N2 antibodies in the Philippines, but those birds did not die.** There have also been outbreaks of H5N2 antibodies in Japan.** However, there were very few birds that died.

In contrasts, the Philippines is reporting dead chickens.** Although the deaths could be due to other viruses such as New Castle Disease, the timing of the announcement and proximity to Indonesia and Vietnam make H5N1 a likely candidate.

Wild birds are beginning to migrate from Mongolia, Siberia,and Kazahkstan, as well as Qinghai Lake in China.** These birds carry HPAI H5N1 and probably are responsible fro the dead domestic ducks being reported in Romania.** Indonesia has suggested that the H5N1 in their Ragunan zoo may be due to wild birds and Thailand has reported deaths in free range poultry, also suggesting wild birds may be responsible.

The distance from the recent outbreak in Kurgen to Romania is similar to the distance from Qinghai Lake to Manila (see map), so the location of the chicken deaths is within the range of migratory birds that are flying to warmer climates.

Results from the Philippine isolates are expected soon, and H5N1 would not be a surprise and would extend H5N1's geographical range.

 

[Dry Rot]

H5N1 enters Europe:

Commentary
.
Romania Imposes H5N1 Wild Bird Quarantine

Recombinomics Commentary
October 7, 2005

Romanian officials quarantined a Danube delta village of about 30 people Friday after three dead ducks there tested positive for bird flu -- the first such cases reported in the region.

Agriculture Minister Gheorghe Flutur said the virus found in the farm-raised ducks came from migrating birds from Russia.

And while it is difficult for the virus to spread from birds to humans, authorities were taking no chances. They sealed off the village of Ciamurlia and banned hunting and fishing in eight counties in the region.

The above comments strongly suggest that the ducks died from H5N1 wild bird flu.** The ducks dying from bird flu in Siberia are testing positive for HPAI H5N1 and sequences have shown the virus to be very closely related to H5N1 from Qinghai Lake in China or Chany Lake in Russia.

This would be the first reported cases of H5N1 in Europe.** Although H5N1 was first discovered in a chicken in Scotland in 1959, the H5N1 isolates in Europe in the past have lacked the multi-basic amino acids at the HA cleavage site. However, the cleavage site of the H5N1 from wild birds in Siberia, as well as those from Qinghai Lake in China had the sequence commonly found in H5N1 from Asia in infected birds, cats, pigs, and humans.

The quarantine of people and restrictions on hunting strongly suggests that preliminary tests show that the bird flu is H5N1.** This finding raises questions about the lack of reporting of similar cases in Europe, especially in regions near the Caspian and Black Seas.** These areas support migratory birds from Siberia and H5N1 was been frequently detected in southern Siberia and Northern Kazakhstan.** Now that these birds are migrating to the southwest, moiré European countries should be reporting dead migratory birds. The H5N1 in the wild birds is quite virulent and has left a trail of dead birds on migratory paths.

Extension of the H5N1 geographical range to Europe strongly suggests that H5N1 will be distributed worldwide in the next 12 months.** The infected birds can travel long distances and migratory paths cross, so transfer of H5N1 between species leads to rapid spread via a large number of intersecting flyways.

As H5N1 increases its geographical range, the opportunity for more recombination increases.** Similar outbreaks may be occurring in the Philippines and Indonesia, which provides additional support for a global spread of H5N1.

The rapid spread demands close surveillance in humans, birds, and other animals.** Moreover, more samples need to be collected, sequenced, and shared.**

H5N1 is clearly marshalling forces for a major assault and more resources need to be brought to bear of the widening and extremely dangerous situation.** The meeting of 80 nations this week in Washington is a good start, but a major commitment of resources is required.** H5N1 has the upper hand and its spread is accelerating and efforts to blunt the spread are long overdue.

 

[campbell]

I saw that.
I am more worried abut Indonesia.
Its close proximity to the north of Australia, the tropical climate and incubation.

How would we know, it is probably already in Northern Australa, and we wouldn't know its so isolated??????

 

[Dry Rot]

Actually I'm worried about the spread into Europe, given the time of year.

As the northern hemisphere heads into autumn, the greater the risk of H5N1 infecting someone with normal flu and mutating into a full bore human to human virus.

 

[Dry Rot]

Commentary
.
H5 Confirmed in Turkey

Recombinomics Commentary
October 8, 2005

Anatolia, quoting officials, said the birds in Turkey died of the H5 type of bird flu - but it was not immediately clear whether it is the exact strain that health officials are particularly worried about.

Finding H5 in turkeys in Turkey near a migratory bird path leaves little doubt that H5N1 wild bird flu has arrived in Romania and Turkey.** The unresolved issue relates to the number of additional European countries that have H5N1 and have failed to report cases.

H5N1 is a reportable disease, the expectations of an arrival in Europe are well known.** The initial Romanian cases were on September 26, but there have been several additional reports that have not been officially announced.** It seems likely that many of the rumors of H5N1 in Iran, Germany, and Hungary are true, and many other countries in Europe also have H5N1 wild bird flu.

The meeting in Washington was held in part because of a lack of transparency in countries in Asia, and it seems that the same lack of transparency exists in Europe.

It seems likely that the number of announcements in the upcoming days will be large, but the lack of reports to date extends the scandalous H5N1 surveillance from Asia to Europe.

 

[Dry Rot]

Commentary
.
Three Suspect H5N1 Bird Flu Cases in Ceamulia de Jos Romania?

Recombinomics Commentary
October 8, 2005

Minister Flutur confirmed yesterday evening that 3 people infected with avian influenza virus were discovered in Romanian locality Ceamurlia de Jos. Officials took the first measure: the entire Romania Delta is in quarantine. All the poultry in households in Romanian Delta localities will be killed and owners will be paid damages. Already killed poultry in refrigerators will be incinerated. One ambulance was sent to the Delta and all the inhabitants will be vaccinated against the "bird flu".

The above** report describes three human H5N1 wild bird flu cases.** If confirmed, these would be the first H5N1 human cases reported outside of southeast Asia and would be the first cases directly tied to H5N1 wild bird flu.** There have been third party reports of human cases in China, but not have been confirmed by third parties.

There is also a possibility that the above cases are just a poor translation of the 3 dead ducks in Ceamurlia de Jos.

Although H5N1 in Russia has been closely related to the H5N1 bird flu at Qinghai Lake, there have been no reported confirmed human cases in Russia, Kazakhstan, or Mongolia, although the pneumonia in a poultry worker in Kazakhstan was never fully explained.

If the human cases are H5N1 positive, the the migratory wild birds will cause considerable concern.** It is likely that the wild bird strains are sensitive to the amantadines, so amantadine (Symmetrel) and rimantadine (Flumadine) may be in high demand in Europe if the neuraminidase inhibitors, Tamiflu and Relenza, are in short supply,

 

[Dry Rot]

EU RACES TO CONTAIN BIRD FLU
17.10.2005. 08:53:25

http://www9.sbs.com.au/theworldnews/region.php?id=123171&region=3

Countries in Europe's Danube delta region are scrambling to contain an outbreak of lethal bird flu, as Britain's chief medical officer warned a flu pandemic was likely.

British scientists on Saturday confirmed the strain of the virus detected in Romania was H5N1, which has killed more than 60 people in Asia since 2003.

The findings came two days after its presence was identified in Turkey.

Experts fear the deadly avian flu virus could combine with a human variety and cause a pandemic.

"The significance of it isn't that there will be a pandemic of bird flu itself, the significance of it is that at some point, and we go by the lessons of history, the bird flu virus will combine with a human flu virus and then it will become easily transmissible," Britain’s chief medical officer, Liam Donaldson, told BBC television.

He said a normal winter flu killed more than 12,000 people in Britain annually.

"But if we had a pandemic, the problem would be that our existing vaccines don't work against it, we would have to develop a new vaccine, and people don't have natural immunity because it hasn’t been around before.” he said.

Dr Donaldson however stressed a pandemic was less likely to occur in Europe this winter.

"I think the likelihood is still that we will see the epicentre of this pandemic of flu, this mutation, in the Far East," he said.

EU foreign ministers will discuss the outbreak at emergency talks in Luxembourg on Tuesday.

And on Wednesday, EU health commissioner Markos Kyprianou will present a pandemic simulation exercise aimed at testing the preparedness of the bloc's 25 members for such an outbreak.

The World Health Organisation voiced concern at the Romanian outbreak and admitted that the risk of bird-to-human transfer had increased.

"The presence of this virus in Romania worries us, because it proves that it is in the birds' environment, and that increases the possibility of transmission to humans," a spokesman said.

Poultry slaughter

The Romanian village of Ceamurlia de Jos remained under quarantine while teams of veterinarians continue their decontamination operations throughout the region, including the slaughter of birds.

"So far we've killed more than 15,000 poultry. It seems that some villagers are still trying to hide birds in the hope of preserving them, but those are isolated cases," a representative from the veterinary health agency told news agency AFP.

But villagers were more concerned about their livelihoods as they watched their poultry flocks slaughtered.

"After the slaughter of my 43 chickens and turkeys, I lie awake at night trying to think of other ways to feed my wife, my parents and my four children," said Tudor Soare, a subsistence farmer.

Authorities were also distributing doses of the anti-viral drug Tamiflu to families whose poultry was identified as infected with bird flu.

The chicken cull also continued in the south-eastern village of Maliuc, the second site of a bird flu outbreak, with veterinary officials saying they expect to complete the slaughter of about 1,500 chickens by Tuesday.

Romanian officials have paid out nearly €86,000 (A$138,000) in compensation to farmers.

Coordinated response

Countries in the Danube delta have begun working on a coordinated response to the threat.

Romanian President Traian Basescu discussed possible steps with his Moldovan counterpart, Vladimir Voronin by telephone, his office said.

Romanian Agriculture Minister Gheorge Flutur said he was also seeking to involve Ukraine, which shares the delta, in drawing up a joint strategy, and would later be contacting Bulgaria.

The Danube delta is one of Europe's biggest bird reserves and is on the UNESCO list of world heritage sites.

 

[Dry Rot]

Tuesday 18/10 on SBS: Insight @ 7.30pm and The Cutting Edge @ 8.30 pm are about bird flu.

 

[FrediKanoute]

Hi I'm just going to throw this link into the mix and suggest that until the point that the Birdflu Virus mutates to a form which is capable of being transmitted between humans we have very little to worry about.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,13509-1823947,00.html

That said now is a good time to buy shares in a pharmaceutical company.

 

[Stig O'Hara]

l[/url]

That said now is a good time to buy shares in a pharmaceutical company.

You have hit it on the head.
Medical companies, with it's ability to manipulate a lapdog media
via scaremongering and with a product to sell.

Roche stand to make a gazillion.

Hong Kong flu was an epic also.

 

[Dry Rot]

You have hit it on the head.
Medical companies, with it's ability to manipulate a lapdog media
via scaremongering and with a product to sell.

Roche stand to make a gazillion.

Hong Kong flu was an epic also.

According to you, Roche must be doing an amazing job - for months they have been manipulating the WHO, CDC, various health ministers, scientists and now more recently the media and the general public.

Perhaps you think they are also spreading wild bird H5N1?

 

[Stig O'Hara]

According to you, Roche must be doing an amazing job - for months they have been manipulating the WHO, CDC, various health ministers, scientists and now more recently the media and the general public.

Perhaps you think they are also spreading wild bird H5N1?

http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/10/11/business/tamiflu.php


The PR people at Roche have whipped enough hysteria,
time to flog its product.

enough said