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Portland with 3.5 start against the Clippers

$12.70 @ $1.18

Now thats gutsy
 
verdasco lost...so reliable @ 1.12

system fails on the 2nd try 1st go again

hmmmm:thumbsdown:
 
If anybody wants to try this with dogs.. I will give them "lock results" on a daily basis. I personally have no patient to follow it and work it all out but feel relative confident on this front. Obviously, getting 30 locks is hard, whatever way you do, but each person has their own niche.

Id even throw 5 bucks in someones tab account and go halves to ride it, if interested, but I just cant be bothered working out and betting exact ( looking for best odds on bet fair, etc)

Let me know if anyone interested...
 

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Dogs are the one sport I reckon there is no way you could get 30 $1.20 pops home in a row. All you need is a dog to slightly miss the kick or get squeezed on the first bend and your gonzo. Greyhounds - very unreliable.
 
Blazers 109 Clippers 87 whew just covered the spread

2 down 28 to go

Bank $14.99
 
brjafi said:
always trust your own instinct, follow your gut, and your first answer/choice is more often the right one

well, technically i didn't cost you any, i said i wouldn't bet on it, not to not bet on it.

what was the stokes result? A DRAW. you cost me 10cents ya bastard, pay me back. :)
Click to expand...

city didn't deserve a draw :)

lucky i stayed off my little dasco
 
ReluctantLion said:
You'd be real lucky to pick half a dozen in a row I'd reckon with the dogs.
Click to expand...


Id gladly take anyone on, 1 v 1, in greyhounds verse any sport provided they were taking sports at the $1.20 as suggested. Half a dozen when picking carefully is no-where near as hard as anticipate. Many false odds-on favourites get sent around in the dogs.
 

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Poizun said:
Id gladly take anyone on, 1 v 1, in greyhounds verse any sport provided they were taking sports at the $1.20 as suggested. Half a dozen when picking carefully is no-where near as hard as anticipate. Many false odds-on favourites get sent around in the dogs.
Click to expand...

Interested in how you reduce/limit the risk of a check in your picks.
 
ReluctantLion said:
Interested in how you reduce/limit the risk of a check in your picks.
Click to expand...

Without going into detail. A classic stumbling point for odds on favorites, are over the sprint journeys in dog racing (300m-400m). Take a young dog, which has won its last 3 or 4 in good time, that weighs 25kg that has drawn box 5 and "normally" pings the lids and runs. Sure its going to start odds on, but there you have high risk of even a slight dwelling costing it a race. Add to that, jumping on the point of a turn turns into a very high risked entity.

Now take a seasoned dog who is strong and tough and can take a hip or shoulder, over a track like Richmond, which is a tough 535m but has loads of room to move, nice run to first marker etc..

Just last night, there was a dog sent around ridiculous odds. Granted someone had 2k straight out on it, because it opened up $1.10 with over 1k in the pool, then next updated, there was 2.5k in win pool and it came into $1.04..it started 2's on, on all totes. Now even tho it won in a slick 30.80ish around Richmond previously, it was in a field of just 5 runners and the field lacked ANY talent at all and it did not even begin all that fantastically. Draws the red at Bulli, in a full field is a recipe for disaster if they don't come out running because the dogs like to carve to the fence, similar to Sale over the 440m and 520m.

You cant STOP a check happening. Just like you cant stop a $1.02 shot going down in the tennis, but you can limit your selections to more "certain" short favourites verse others at the same price which should not be there.

Dogs like Forty Twenty and Mantra Lad have recently gone around in 4 dog and 5 dog fields in which they have won by over 10 lengths. Both times they were sent around 1.20 and Mantra paid an amazing 1.40 in a 4 dog field from the red. These are def locks minus a dog breaking down and they do not come up often, but I am sure I could outrun someone picking tennis results or the such with dogs that I only need to get 1.20 for either win or place.
 
Poizun said:
Without going into detail. A classic stumbling point for odds on favorites, are over the sprint journeys in dog racing (300m-400m). Take a young dog, which has won its last 3 or 4 in good time, that weighs 25kg that has drawn box 5 and "normally" pings the lids and runs. Sure its going to start odds on, but there you have high risk of even a slight dwelling costing it a race. Add to that, jumping on the point of a turn turns into a very high risked entity.

Now take a seasoned dog who is strong and tough and can take a hip or shoulder, over a track like Richmond, which is a tough 535m but has loads of room to move, nice run to first marker etc..

Just last night, there was a dog sent around ridiculous odds. Granted someone had 2k straight out on it, because it opened up $1.10 with over 1k in the pool, then next updated, there was 2.5k in win pool and it came into $1.04..it started 2's on, on all totes. Now even tho it won in a slick 30.80ish around Richmond previously, it was in a field of just 5 runners and the field lacked ANY talent at all and it did not even begin all that fantastically. Draws the red at Bulli, in a full field is a recipe for disaster if they don't come out running because the dogs like to carve to the fence, similar to Sale over the 440m and 520m.

You cant STOP a check happening. Just like you cant stop a $1.02 shot going down in the tennis, but you can limit your selections to more "certain" short favourites verse others at the same price which should not be there.

Dogs like Forty Twenty and Mantra Lad have recently gone around in 4 dog and 5 dog fields in which they have won by over 10 lengths. Both times they were sent around 1.20 and Mantra paid an amazing 1.40 in a 4 dog field from the red. These are def locks minus a dog breaking down and they do not come up often, but I am sure I could outrun someone picking tennis results or the such with dogs that I only need to get 1.20 for either win or place.
Click to expand...

Have just started to take more of an interest punting on the dogs so will definetely be taking your thoughts on board. The only decent runs I've had have been when I've been willing to back against the short priced favourites when I thought they could find trouble...

Just struggled to see how anyone could be confident of getting on a run backing short priced favourites but you've just got to be a little more selective I guess.
 
well today is ok

started with ferrero @1.10 =WIN
continued with sharapova @1.10=WIN

and tonight radwanksa @1.33

they are all close enough to 1.2
 
I'm very tempted. Should be a lot more value bets once the clay season proper starts because a lot of the players are mugs on it, and a lot of betting sites go based on rankings.

Anyway, I'll start with a mildly risky bet on Querrey to beat Mayer at $1.32. Hopefully his form from last week means he's over his injury and pre-AO horrible form.
 
brjafi said:
well today is ok

started with ferrero @1.10 =WIN
continued with sharapova @1.10=WIN

and tonight radwanksa @1.33

they are all close enough to 1.2
Click to expand...

radwanksa=WIN

3 wins now

next pick monaco @ 1.20 to beat ignacio chela
 

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