Trade Requested Bailey Smith

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Bailey Smith is a great fit for Geelong. He wants to play inside: we'll give him as much centre square time as he wants. We lack a bit of quality in the mid-20 demographic: he'll just be entering that by Christmas. We've had a solid injection of senior talent from every post Bailey Smith draft so far, so we can afford a modest return from our 2024 draft crop.

But - I don't want to be a dick here - seriously, f**k mortgaging our future for him. Under no circumstances should our future first be on the table. Notwithstanding our surprising early bird entry to the Preliminary Final round, I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if we were in the bottom third of the ladder next year. I've always earmarked it as the rebuild year, the year to give senior exposure to a number of players currently stuck in the VFL (or perennially injured) and see what they're made of: Jhye Clark, Mitch Knevitt, Toby Conway, Oisin Mullin, Ted Clohesey, George Stevens. To me, that 2025 first rounder is shaping up to be a crucial pick and if the decision came down to whether we want Bailey Smith, or our first rounder this year AND next, I'm sorry, I don't think we can afford essentially being a bystander for two consecutive drafts at this point in our development.

This year's first, a future second, maybe some steak knives, sure. But I hope we're willing to walk away if it gets to Hopper levels of silliness and I'm sure we will be.
 
MC Extra Dollop said:
Bailey Smith is a great fit for Geelong. He wants to play inside: we'll give him as much centre square time as he wants. We lack a bit of quality in the mid-20 demographic: he'll just be entering that by Christmas. We've had a solid injection of senior talent from every post Bailey Smith draft so far, so we can afford a modest return from our 2024 draft crop.

But - I don't want to be a dick here - seriously, f**k mortgaging our future for him. Under no circumstances should our future first be on the table. Notwithstanding our surprising early bird entry to the Preliminary Final round, I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if we were in the bottom third of the ladder next year. I've always earmarked it as the rebuild year, the year to give senior exposure to a number of players currently stuck in the VFL (or perennially injured) and see what they're made of: Jhye Clark, Mitch Knevitt, Toby Conway, Oisin Mullin, Ted Clohesey, George Stevens. To me, that 2025 first rounder is shaping up to be a crucial pick and if the decision came down to whether we want Bailey Smith, or our first rounder this year AND next, I'm sorry, I don't think we can afford essentially being a bystander for two consecutive drafts at this point in our development.

This year's first, a future second, maybe some steak knives, sure. But I hope we're willing to walk away if it gets to Hopper levels of silliness and I'm sure we will be.
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Totally understand you not wanting to overpay, but the reality is if you win the flag, your talk of your 1st this year and and F2 equals a pick in the early 20s and a pick in the 30s. Thats not close to his value even with his ACL in consideration.
 

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THE_GUN said:
Which best 22 player would the cats be prepared to trade out to get their 1st rounder to pick #12-#14 range
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For an out of contract player? They can have Parfitt lol

Think people are not understanding the difference between Contracted players and players who are Out of Contract.

Bailey has the power here. Cats don’t need to do anything ridiculous.

If Bulldogs don’t play by the rules they aren’t just pissing off Baz. They piss off Geelong, the Players Union, Bailey’s agent. There’s a lot of factors there. You don’t want to become Colin Young and Freo situation.
 
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The Inbetweener said:
Totally understand you not wanting to overpay, but the reality is if you win the flag, your talk of your 1st this year and and F2 equals a pick in the early 20s and a pick in the 30s. Thats not close to his value even with his ACL in consideration.
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Yes I think we're on the same wavelength. My point is simply if that's not enough, I hope we're willing to walk away.

Realistically though, that won't happen. If I had to guess, I'd say it will be like the Tanner Bruhn/Ollie Henry trade period where the Dogs or a third party have their eye on someone completely out of left field whom we were pencilling in as a part of our long-term plans (this year's Cooper Stephens) which will get it over the line.

And people will laugh at that now because of what Stephens has or hasn't done since he was traded to Hawthorn, but he was leaving us as a first round pick who'd shown a bit in a few senior cameos. I don't think any Geelong supporters were ecstatic to see him leaving the club. So I wonder if another club has their eyes on someone like Knevitt and if that might be what it ends up taking. I won't be doing backflips if we end the trade period without Knevitt on the list, but I could see something like that happening to get Smith to Geelong over the line.
 
THE_GUN said:
I really dont understand why Melbourne & Essendon are not into Smith
Sure melbourne have some issue's currently but they will be worked out and the Bombers will get their sheet together soon and he is a quality player that every team would take.
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We'd need to trade out one of our mids for it to work. I don't think Smith addresses our list balance issues and it just makes it more difficult to develop Hobbs and Tsatas, though Smith alongside Merrett, Durham and Caldwell is very appealing.

What I would be all in for however is trading Parish for Smith. That would help balance our side without spending a first rounder. I don't think Parish is interested in leaving unfortunately so I don't think we're in the running for Smith.
 
MC Extra Dollop said:
Yes I think we're on the same wavelength. My point is simply if that's not enough, I hope we're willing to walk away.

Realistically though, that won't happen. If I had to guess, I'd say it will be like the Tanner Bruhn/Ollie Henry trade period where the Dogs or a third party have their eye on someone completely out of left field whom we were pencilling in as a part of our long-term plans (this year's Cooper Stephens) which will get it over the line.

And people will laugh at that now because of what Stephens has or hasn't done since he was traded to Hawthorn, but he was leaving us as a first round pick who'd shown a bit in a few senior cameos. I don't think any Geelong supporters were ecstatic to see him leaving the club. So I wonder if another club has their eyes on someone like Knevitt and if that might be what it ends up taking. I won't be doing backflips if we end the trade period without Knevitt on the list, but I could see something like that happening to get Smith to Geelong over the line.
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I’d do current First, Future 3rd and Knevitt if they are that desperate.

Otherwise wouldn’t budge on original offer of Current 2024 First and a Future 2nd. Maybe if Mackie wants to give it a nudge a future 3rd on top of 2024 1st and 2025 2nd. That’s more than enough for an out of contract player who is coming off an ACL and hasn’t played in 18 months.

That Future 1st is untouchable with bulk retirements incoming.
 
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Snuffaluphagus said:
Henry as well. I can see the same thing happening again here.

My "to be fair" is when you're run and coached as well as Cats are, it's hard to lose on trades because the risk seems to not be a thing. You keep getting the best out of everyone, you keep winning the trade.

Still, I think a late first and late 2nd for Smith is robbery and we'll see if Power draws a line on this one
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I think the risks usually work out because they don't take big ones.
 
Where is Bailey Smith best mate he went on holidays with? Celebrity 101... hasn't been seen since his been caught out making up 💩
 
WalshistheGOAT said:
Smith's a far far better player than Henry was at the time of the trade. Not really a useful comparison
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The comparison isnt about the player its that our list is 2 years older and we will have a bunch more retirements this year than in 22. For that reason we would be nuts to risk trading our future 1st.
 
Pure_Ownage said:
The comparison isnt about the player its that our list is 2 years older and we will have a bunch more retirements this year than in 22. For that reason we would be nuts to risk trading our future 1st.
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Not trying to be rude but why the hell would the Dogs care about that? They're losing a very good player not you guys
 
Libbaaaa said:
Why would he go to Geelong to be behind Danger, Atkins, Bruhn, Holmes, Mullin, Blicavs, Mannagh in the midfield?
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Danger is 34.
Blicavs 33 and is cooked (and playing in def anyway)
Mullin is a fringe player.
I love axe but smith is significantly better.

Smith will get heaps of midfield chances at geelong.
 

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WalshistheGOAT said:
Not trying to be rude but why the hell would the Dogs care about that? They're losing a very good player not you guys
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We are not here to care about what they want. Hes out of contract and they dont have leverage.
We will make as fair an offer as we can with other players and picks but we wont trade our future 1st nor should we.
 
Pure_Ownage said:
We are not here to care about what they want. Hes out of contract and they dont have leverage.
We will make as fair an offer as we can with other players and picks but we wont trade our future 1st nor should we.
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Pretty sure he's is still tied to the Dogs regardless of contract status as he's not a free agent.

He's not a player you can shuffle through the PSD if a deal isn't struck. Every other VIC team would pick him in the draft or PSD without hesitation.
 
Pure_Ownage said:
The comparison isnt about the player its that our list is 2 years older and we will have a bunch more retirements this year than in 22. For that reason we would be nuts to risk trading our future 1st.
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You're right.

We need to help you out here.
 
WalshistheGOAT said:
Pretty sure he's is still tied to the Dogs regardless of contract status as he's not a free agent.

He's not a player you can shuffle through the PSD if a deal isn't struck. Every other VIC team would pick him in the draft or PSD without hesitation.
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Richmond & North would jump at it no matter how much $$$ he puts on his head
You dont let a player like smith go through
 
PurpJuice said:
Question for dogs fans.

If Geelong finish straight sets (which is most likely), do we accept their 1st + 2nd for Baz?

Would prefer two firsts as that’s what he’s worth but if it’s pick 14ish, that plus a second gets it done for mine.
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Aged like milk.

I'm not the superstitious type either, but you were really tempting fate with this one from a Dogs POV.
 
GetDimmaBack said:
You're right.

We need to help you out here.
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I think the point from the Geelong side (at least the supporter side) is we'll be okay if Bailey Smith doesn't end up at Geelong. If we can't reach a deal that satisfies the Bulldogs, I'd like us to be prepared to walk away.

Realistically, this year's first and next year's second alone seems a little light... I don't think anyone's disputing that. But my money is on something else occurring to get this over the line, I can't see it involving next year's first.

And nor should it. Whether Smith ends up with us or not, we're likely to have 9-10 currently listed 2022 premiership players gone by the end of next year. Plus, it's just my opinion, but I think we slide significantly next year and have felt that way for a long time. That old 'future first' gamble sure looks like a good chance of turning into pick 6-8 territory to me. To lose a pick in that range and to have that much experience walking out the door at the same time would be catastrophic.

I hope Geelong is preparing for that possibility and I'm sure we are. It isn't a Lachie Schulz, Jacob Hopper situation where Collingwood this year and Richmond last year were expecting to compete for premierships and were clearly pretty shocked to not even qualify for the finals. For me, Geelong dropping to the bottom half of the ladder next year is completely foreseeable.

So it's a definite 'no' from me on that 2025 first rounder, unless we're getting another back from somewhere else and even then I'd be against it. And if that means the deal falls through, I'd have no problem with Mackie shaking hands with Smith and the Dogs, wishing them all the best and walking away.
 
The more coin and years the cats offer the less we should offer the dogs.. He isn't really worth that much anyways.. He hasn't played this season and last season was very average..
 
MC Extra Dollop said:
I think the point from the Geelong side (at least the supporter side) is we'll be okay if Bailey Smith doesn't end up at Geelong. If we can't reach a deal that satisfies the Bulldogs, I'd like us to be prepared to walk away.

Realistically, this year's first and next year's second alone seems a little light... I don't think anyone's disputing that. But my money is on something else occurring to get this over the line, I can't see it involving next year's first.

And nor should it. Whether Smith ends up with us or not, we're likely to have 9-10 currently listed 2022 premiership players gone by the end of next year. Plus, it's just my opinion, but I think we slide significantly next year and have felt that way for a long time. That old 'future first' gamble sure looks like a good chance of turning into pick 6-8 territory to me. To lose a pick in that range and to have that much experience walking out the door at the same time would be catastrophic.

I hope Geelong is preparing for that possibility and I'm sure we are. It isn't a Lachie Schulz, Jacob Hopper situation where Collingwood this year and Richmond last year were expecting to compete for premierships and were clearly pretty shocked to not even qualify for the finals. For me, Geelong dropping to the bottom half of the ladder next year is completely foreseeable.

So it's a definite 'no' from me on that 2025 first rounder, unless we're getting another back from somewhere else and even then I'd be against it. And if that means the deal falls through, I'd have no problem with Mackie shaking hands with Smith and the Dogs, wishing them all the best and walking away.
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I see us being a bit of a yo yo team over the next few years.

23 - premiers fixture, short pre season, bad run with injuries - 12th

24 - 12th placed fixture, full pre season, fair run with injuries - 3rd

Rinse, repeat.

The way the AFL do the fixturing now makes so much difference.

If we had to play GWS and Sydney twice this year, which we will probably end up having to do next year, instead of North and Adelaide twice that could easily have been the difference between finishing 3rd and missing the finals.

Add in the shorter pre season where we are basically 4 weeks behind the non finalists in prep for next year now for making the prelim, plus the AFL already reducing the pre season to fit in gather round and round zero on top of that which compresses that inherent disadvantage further.

We must keep our future R1 at all costs. Then on the down years we need to nail that top 10 pick.

I think the retirements we will have at season end will have little affect on our 2025 season compared to the other factors above but the public will still cry that we are old and gone if we dip.
 
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MC Extra Dollop said:
Whether Smith ends up with us or not, we're likely to have 9-10 currently listed 2022 premiership players gone by the end of next year. Plus, it's just my opinion, but I think we slide significantly next year and have felt that way for a long time. That old 'future first' gamble sure looks like a good chance of turning into pick 6-8 territory to me. To lose a pick in that range and to have that much experience walking out the door at the same time would be catastrophic.

I hope Geelong is preparing for that possibility and I'm sure we are. It isn't a Lachie Schulz, Jacob Hopper situation where Collingwood this year and Richmond last year were expecting to compete for premierships and were clearly pretty shocked to not even qualify for the finals. For me, Geelong dropping to the bottom half of the ladder next year is completely foreseeable.
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Is your belief that we'll slide to the bottom half of the ladder based mainly on us receiving a significantly more difficult fixture next year, or on a decline you foresee in the output of older guys like Danger? Not necessarily disagreeing with your contention btw, just curious to know your reasoning. If it's the latter reason I think we're actually doing an alright job managing the transition of the senior guys out of the side. The likes of Tuohy, Duncan, Bews, and Blicavs may still be in the side but they're all way less important to us than they used to be, so I feel we can cover their departure or decline.

Likely Round 1 team next year if Smith arrives (age as of Round 1 2025 in brackets):

B: Kolodjashnij (29) J.Henry (26) Zuthrie (26)
HB: Humphries (22) Blicavs (33) Stewart (31)
C: Dempsey (22) Holmes (22) Miers (25)
HF: Close (26) Cameron (31) Mannagh (27)
F: Stengle (26) Neale (22) O.Henry (22)
R: SDK (24) Dangerfield (34) Smith (24)
Int: Atkins (29) Bowes (27) Bruhn (22) Mullin (25)
Sub: Duncan (33)

This team is similar to the one that finished 3rd this year, with only Tuohy, Stanley and Bews out of the side. Note that there's only 5 players over the age of 30.

The age profile and quality of this teams looks okay to me. Nothing here screams "definite fall down the ladder" imo.
 
I wonder if Bailey Smith will come out this week and nominate his club of choice, as the Dogs are out? Or will he wait till the club of choice is out of final contention
 

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