You've got one of the best home ground advantages in the league (although not as good this year). It means as long as you don't have an absolutely gutted list you wont drop below about 10th. Factoring in FA compo, Father Sons and NGA draftees it means it won't be a top 10 pick.To be fair it will be the first year since 2007 we have had no selwood or hawkins. And most of our older 30s (except cameron and stewart who are going strong) are very close to the end.
We will go well long term as we have a good crop of talent under 24 and we have good coaches. But our 24-28yo age bracket isnt great (which is where bailey would help) so its easy to see why we would dip next year and why we wouldnt trade a future 1st.