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Scorpus said:
I would say based on this that a premiership team makeup MUST have a top tier midfielder. If a team chooses to skimp on the forward line, the midfield must be even stronger than average. Defense is non-negotiable, but the midfield cannot be weaker than the defense. And if defense is stronger than the forward line, the midfield must be (again) stronger than average. Rucks are irrelevant
Click to expand...

Here's where we currently stand

Defense - Smith (1xAA)
Midfield & Mid-Forward - Laird* (2xAA), Dawson (1xAA), Sloane (1xAA), Crouch (1xAA)
Forward - Walker (1xAA)

*won both of his AAs as a defender

Currently we fall short on all three lines in terms of awards to this point. So we'd need:
  • One midfielder in our squad to become multiple AA quality (Dawson?), ideally two (who is the other?)
  • More quality in defense, especially if Laird continues as a mid. Who is the next multiple-AA defender in our squad?
  • More strength in the forward line, otherwise we need more quality in the midfield. Do we have enough All Australian level forwards to offset the mids? We'd need Fogarty, Thilthorpe, Rankine to all become AA level players, otherwise the midfield requirements rise
Based on the blueprint, pass/fail on current awards
  • Not one flag won without at least one midfielder that is multiple All Australian quality :crossmark:
  • Five of the seven teams had two or more multiple All Australian midfielders :crossmark:
  • Four of the seven teams had three or more All Australian midfielders :whitecheck:
  • Four of the seven teams had at least one multiple All Australian forward :crossmark:
  • Three teams had zero or one AA forwards, suggesting it's possible to win a flag with no forward line. However all three sides had at least 8 All Australian jumpers awarded to the midfield :crossmark:
  • Every side had at least one AA defender. Six of the seven teams had multiple AA defenders. :crossmark:
  • Only one team had more AA jumpers awarded to defenders than to the midfield :whitecheck:
  • However four teams had more AA jumpers awarded to defenders than to forwards. All four of these sides had at least one midfielder with a minimum of four AA jumpers :crossmark:
This list gets even worse if Walker, Smith and Sloane all retire.
 
Last edited:
Scorpus said:
Here's where we currently stand

Defense - Smith (1xAA)
Midfield & Mid-Forward - Laird* (2xAA), Dawson (1xAA), Sloane (1xAA), Crouch (1xAA)
Forward - Walker (1xAA)

*won both of his AAs as a defender

Currently we fall short on all three lines in terms of awards to this point. So we'd need:
  • One midfielder in our squad to become multiple AA quality (Dawson?), ideally two (who is the other?)
  • More quality in defense, especially if Laird continues as a mid. Who is the next multiple-AA defender in our squad?
  • More strength in the forward line, otherwise we need more quality in the midfield. Do we have enough All Australian level forwards to offset the mids? We'd need Fogarty, Thilthorpe, Rankine to all become AA level players, otherwise the midfield requirements rise
Based on the blueprint, pass/fail on current awards
  • Not one flag won without at least one midfielder that is multiple All Australian quality :crossmark:
  • Five of the seven teams had two or more multiple All Australian midfielders :crossmark:
  • Four of the seven teams had three or more All Australian midfielders :whitecheck:
  • Four of the seven teams had at least one multiple All Australian forward :crossmark:
  • Three teams had zero or one AA forwards, suggesting it's possible to win a flag with no forward line. However all three sides had at least 8 All Australian jumpers awarded to the midfield :crossmark:
  • Every side had at least one AA defender. Six of the seven teams had multiple AA defenders. :crossmark:
  • Only one team had more AA jumpers awarded to defenders than to the midfield :whitecheck:
  • However four teams had more AA jumpers awarded to defenders than to forwards. All four of these sides had at least one midfielder with a minimum of four AA jumpers :crossmark:
This list gets even worse if Walker, Smith and Sloane all retire.
Click to expand...
Scorpus said:
The reason I asked is that anecdotally I feel that defenders are the position most likely to be selected AA in a given year based on ladder position.

Eg. the selectors look at the highest performing teams, and choose the best defenders from those teams. It's extremely rare that a defender from a weak team (especially KPD) would make it, even if they've had a great season

Midfielders are usually selected on a mixture of form and reputation, plus there are more available spots, so you get a mixture of both the elite midfield units in the league and great players from other teams.

The forwards pretty much lock themselves in based on goals and it's not always the best teams that have the highest goal kickers, especially if a weak team has only one good forward that everyone directs goals to (eg Nick Larkey). If you had an elite forward line with two great forwards, but neither was in the top 3 goal kickers, you'd never get an AA

If I went back and had a look at (for example) the three time Richmond premiership team that side had:

Defense - Rance (5xAA), Grimes (1xAA), Houli (1xAA),
Midfield & Mid-Forward - Martin (4xAA), Cotchin (1xAA), Edwards (1xAA), Bolton (1xAA)
Forward - Riewoldt (3xAA), Lynch (1xAA)

This allows for All Australians before, during and after premiership years, in other words whether the player is good even if it's not recognized in that specific year.

Rance had the most AAs but only featured in the 2017 flag. But typically that is a spread you'd expect for an elite premiership team, most of the quality is in the midfield and forward line

Here's the 2018 West Coast side

Defense - McGovern (4xAA), Hurn (2xAA)
Midfield & Mid-Forward - Yeo (2xAA)
Forward - Kennedy (3xAA), Darling (1xAA), LeCras (1xAA), Ryan (1xAA)

Not as much in the midfield, but stacked up forward and a couple of great defenders

Melbourne in 2021

Defense - May (2xAA), Lever (1xAA), Hibberd (1xAA)
Midfield & Mid-Forward - Petracca (4xAA), Oliver (3xAA)
Forward -
Ruck - Gawn (6xAA)

Stacked in the midfield, nothing up forward, good players in defense

Hawthorn's three peat

Defense - Lake (2xAA), Frawley (1xAA), Birchall (1xAA), Gibson (1xAA), Burgoyne (1xAA)
Midfield & Mid-Forward - Mitchell (3xAA), Hodge (3xAA), Lewis (1xAA)
Forward - Franklin (8xAA) Rioli (3xAA), Bruest (2xAA), Roughead (2xAA), Gunston (1xAA)

Franklin only there for one flag in that period but this was a stacked side on all lines

Geelong in 2022

Defense - Stewart (5xAA)
Midfield & Mid-Forward - Dangerfield (8xAA), Selwood (6xAA), Blicavs (1xAA), Guthrie (1xAA)
Forward - Hawkins (5xAA), Cameron (3xAA), Stengle (1xAA)

Bulldogs in 2016

Defense - Boyd (3xAA), Morris (1xAA), Wood (1xAA), Daniel (1xAA)
Midfield & Mid-Forward - Bontempelli (5xAA), Macrae (3xAA)
Forward - Stringer (1xAA)

Collingwood in 2023 (although some players could continue earning AAs)

Defense - Moore (2xAA), Maynard (1xAA)
Midfield & Mid-Forward - Pendlebury (6xAA), Mitchell (2xAA), Sidebottom (1xAA), J. Daicos (1xAA), N. Daicos (1xAA)
Forward -

So in summary over the last decade
  • Not one flag won without at least one midfielder that is multiple All Australian quality
  • Five of the seven teams had two or more multiple All Australian midfielders
  • Four of the seven teams had three or more All Australian midfielders
  • Four of the seven teams had at least one multiple All Australian forward
  • Three teams had zero or one AA forwards, suggesting it's possible to win a flag with no forward line. However all three sides had at least 8 All Australian jumpers awarded to the midfield
  • Every side had at least one AA defender. Six of the seven teams had multiple AA defenders.
  • Only one team had more AA jumpers awarded to defenders than to the midfield
  • However four teams had more AA jumpers awarded to defenders than to forwards. All four of these sides had at least one midfielder with a minimum of four AA jumpers
I would say based on this that a premiership team makeup MUST have a top tier midfielder. If a team chooses to skimp on the forward line, the midfield must be even stronger than average. Defense is non-negotiable, but the midfield cannot be weaker than the defense. And if defense is stronger than the forward line, the midfield must be (again) stronger than average. Rucks are irrelevant
Click to expand...

Nice!

I had a look at the 2013 Hawks premiership. Best players in order were:
  • Lake - defender - AA in 2009 & 2010, not in AA squad 2013
  • Gunston - forward - not AA until 2018, loyalty issues
  • Lewis - wing - not AA until 2014, only selection
  • Rioli - forward - AA in 2012, 2015, 2016, so right in his prime
  • Hodge - mid - AA in 2005, 2008, 2010, in AA squad 2013)
  • Birchall - defender - AA in 2012 only

Hodge and Mitchell were the only multi AA midfielders in 2013. Mitchell was AA in 2013, but wasn't in the best 6 (he got 12 disposals for the game).

So, not a single one of the best 6 players were in the AA team the year they won that flag. Only 2 of them mere multi AAs by that year. 5 of the 6 best players were within 3 years of their AA selection (after or before). But all 6 were AAs at some point!

Players who will be AAs, particularly multi AAs, will tend to be above average (best 185 players) or better for a number of years. And clearly former or future AAs can be big game players, even if it isn't their year.

I previously looked at data from 2022 re player quality. Players tend to peak between 24 and 30, when 4 to 5 players per cohort are consistently elite (top 55 players in league), although you may have up to 7 at around 27 years old. A player or two may be good enough to be elite in their 21st year and around 2 will be elite from 31 to 34. Above average players follow a similar pattern but start a bit earlier and end a bit later (elite players on their way up and then down would be included in this).
1705803987233.png


So, our best players in a premiership side might be players within 3 years of an AA selection (which could be in the future).

Recent AAs - Dawson, Tex
Future AAs - Rankine, Rachele?, Michelannay?, Curtin?, Soligo?

Laird might be in the running (AA squad in 2021, 2022), but Sloane and Smith look a bit far away from their peaks.
 
Big Dub said:
Nice!

I had a look at the 2013 Hawks premiership. Best players in order were:
  • Lake - defender - AA in 2009 & 2010, not in AA squad 2013
  • Gunston - forward - not AA until 2018, loyalty issues
  • Lewis - wing - not AA until 2014, only selection
  • Rioli - forward - AA in 2012, 2015, 2016, so right in his prime
  • Hodge - mid - AA in 2005, 2008, 2010, in AA squad 2013)
  • Birchall - defender - AA in 2012 only

Hodge and Mitchell were the only multi AA midfielders in 2013. Mitchell was AA in 2013, but wasn't in the best 6 (he got 12 disposals for the game).

So, not a single one of the best 6 players were in the AA team the year they won that flag. Only 2 of them mere multi AAs by that year. 5 of the 6 best players were within 3 years of their AA selection (after or before). But all 6 were AAs at some point!

Players who will be AAs, particularly multi AAs, will tend to be above average (best 185 players) or better for a number of years. And clearly former or future AAs can be big game players, even if it isn't their year.

I previously looked at data from 2022 re player quality. Players tend to peak between 24 and 30, when 4 to 5 players per cohort are consistently elite (top 55 players in league), although you may have up to 7 at around 27 years old. A player or two may be good enough to be elite in their 21st year and around 2 will be elite from 31 to 34. Above average players follow a similar pattern but start a bit earlier and end a bit later (elite players on their way up and then down would be included in this).
View attachment 1890140


So, our best players in a premiership side might be players within 3 years of an AA selection (which could be in the future).

Recent AAs - Dawson, Tex
Future AAs - Rankine, Rachele?, Michelannay?, Curtin?, Soligo?

Laird might be in the running (AA squad in 2021, 2022), but Sloane and Smith look a bit far away from their peaks.
Click to expand...

That's right. I imagine winning a flag also elevates the likelihood of a player becoming AA in the future, a bit of a reputation boost.

But it's clear we need players that are projecting to be around that level during a flag tilt. The only current AA in their position I can see having any relevance during our window is Dawson, and if I'm extremely optimistic, Walker. Everyone else will need to be developed into that level of player.

The leading candidates at the moment would be Rankine (forward) and Rachele (mid-forward).

I'd like to think players like Thilthorpe and Curtin could be AA but that's probably a fair way off.
 

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Scorpus said:
That's right. I imagine winning a flag also elevates the likelihood of a player becoming AA in the future, a bit of a reputation boost.

But it's clear we need players that are projecting to be around that level during a flag tilt. The only current AA in their position I can see having any relevance during our window is Dawson, and if I'm extremely optimistic, Walker. Everyone else will need to be developed into that level of player.

The leading candidates at the moment would be Rankine (forward) and Rachele (mid-forward).

I'd like to think players like Thilthorpe and Curtin could be AA but that's probably a fair way off.
Click to expand...

Don’t necessarily need players with reputation talent or pedigree. Can win with players that know how to play their role.

In any one team you can only have 1-2 players that are gonna average around 30+ disposals, 1 player that can kick north of 40-50 goals a season and 1-2 players that can average high in intercept marks because that is the role on their team.

Champion team will beat a team of champions because the weaker players on the champion team know how to play the lesser roles (pressure forwards, defensive mids, lock down small defenders) better. Imagine the AA team playing and all the mids expecting the ruck to tap it to them and all the forwards expecting the mids to kick it to them.


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Kensy006 said:
Don’t necessarily need players with reputation talent or pedigree. Can win with players that know how to play their role.

In any one team you can only have 1-2 players that are gonna average around 30+ disposals, 1 player that can kick north of 40-50 goals a season and 1-2 players that can average high in intercept marks because that is the role on their team.

Champion team will beat a team of champions because the weaker players on the champion team know how to play the lesser roles (pressure forwards, defensive mids, lock down small defenders) better. Imagine the AA team playing and all the mids expecting the ruck to tap it to them and all the forwards expecting the mids to kick it to them.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
Click to expand...

Teams filled with role players don't make finals. They certainly don't win flags.

You absolutely need star players and the quality of these stars is crucial to winning. The better the top group is, the more likely you are to win.

With that said the quality of the entire squad matters, you do still need decent role players and can't just rock up with a woeful bottom 6 of the 22. You also need a cohesive team that's well coached with a good run of injuries and luck.

But in general I don't think there are any recent examples of a champion team (as you describe) winning the flag. They all have significant star power.
 
Scorpus said:
Teams filled with role players don't make finals. They certainly don't win flags.

You absolutely need star players and the quality of these stars is crucial to winning. The better the top group is, the more likely you are to win.

With that said the quality of the entire squad matters, you do still need decent role players and can't just rock up with a woeful bottom 6 of the 22. You also need a cohesive team that's well coached with a good run of injuries and luck.

But in general I don't think there are any recent examples of a champion team (as you describe) winning the flag. They all have significant star power.
Click to expand...
Although . . .

West Coast 2018 premiership best players
  • Shuey - never AA
  • Sheed - never AA
  • Barass - never AA
  • Kennedy - 3xAA (2015, 2016, 2017)
  • Hutchungs - never AA
  • Schofield - never AA
  • McGovern - 4xAA (2016-2019)

Hurn and Gaff AA and Yeo in AA squad in 2013, but not in best players.

It can be done . . .
 
Big Dub said:
Although . . .

West Coast 2018 premiership best players
  • Shuey - never AA
  • Sheed - never AA
  • Barass - never AA
  • Kennedy - 3xAA (2015, 2016, 2017)
  • Hutchungs - never AA
  • Schofield - never AA
  • McGovern - 4xAA (2016-2019)

Hurn and Gaff AA and Yeo in AA squad in 2013, but not in best players.

It can be done . . .
Click to expand...

You can't tell me Josh Kennedy wasn't a star player. The bloke kicked over 700 goals
 
Scorpus said:
Teams filled with role players don't make finals. They certainly don't win flags.

You absolutely need star players and the quality of these stars is crucial to winning. The better the top group is, the more likely you are to win.

With that said the quality of the entire squad matters, you do still need decent role players and can't just rock up with a woeful bottom 6 of the 22. You also need a cohesive team that's well coached with a good run of injuries and luck.

But in general I don't think there are any recent examples of a champion team (as you describe) winning the flag. They all have significant star power.
Click to expand...

Sorry you’re right having a top tier of players that are guns (e.g. a mid that dominates contested possession, forward that kicks bags, a defender that intercepts etc.) is important. But you need players around them that play their role well. And the players that fit into the AA team are players that are the main guys on their team and wouldn’t be good at playing a lesser role on the team.


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Kensy006 said:
A big jump from playing well as a part time mid to becoming one of the best mids in the comp.


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Click to expand...

It really isn't though. Inside midfield is mainly a talent and contested ball check, not a specialised position someone needs to be developed in. Rankine has shown he's a very strong contested ball player and the talent is there.

Really, Izak would probably walk into being an AA-contention midfielder. If Connor Rozee could... The only thing that really stops any Rankine move towards the midfield is Rachele, though.
 

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Using players like Rankine who have a varied skillset can be tricky.

Where do they start? What's the split between midfield-forward? Coaches almost have too many options. Can take a little while to bed it down. Maybe Burns and VB fight over him haha

Should rotations be structured / preordained? Or flexible, based on gut feel and how the game is progressing?

Plus you need another player (or players) to mirror Rankine and vacate roles as required.

I'm hoping during the preseason we'll see some of these gears. Pedlar, Rachele & Rankine's roles intertwined to a degree and including significant midfield time.
 
Scorpus said:
Here's where we currently stand

Defense - Smith (1xAA)
Midfield & Mid-Forward - Laird* (2xAA), Dawson (1xAA), Sloane (1xAA), Crouch (1xAA)
Forward - Walker (1xAA)

*won both of his AAs as a defender

Currently we fall short on all three lines in terms of awards to this point. So we'd need:
  • One midfielder in our squad to become multiple AA quality (Dawson?), ideally two (who is the other?)
  • More quality in defense, especially if Laird continues as a mid. Who is the next multiple-AA defender in our squad?
  • More strength in the forward line, otherwise we need more quality in the midfield. Do we have enough All Australian level forwards to offset the mids? We'd need Fogarty, Thilthorpe, Rankine to all become AA level players, otherwise the midfield requirements rise
Based on the blueprint, pass/fail on current awards
  • Not one flag won without at least one midfielder that is multiple All Australian quality :crossmark:
  • Five of the seven teams had two or more multiple All Australian midfielders :crossmark:
  • Four of the seven teams had three or more All Australian midfielders :whitecheck:
  • Four of the seven teams had at least one multiple All Australian forward :crossmark:
  • Three teams had zero or one AA forwards, suggesting it's possible to win a flag with no forward line. However all three sides had at least 8 All Australian jumpers awarded to the midfield :crossmark:
  • Every side had at least one AA defender. Six of the seven teams had multiple AA defenders. :crossmark:
  • Only one team had more AA jumpers awarded to defenders than to the midfield :whitecheck:
  • However four teams had more AA jumpers awarded to defenders than to forwards. All four of these sides had at least one midfielder with a minimum of four AA jumpers :crossmark:
This list gets even worse if Walker, Smith and Sloane all retire.
Click to expand...
Just to be the devil’s advocate how many of the premiership players became AA in the year they went top?
 
rubbers0ul said:
remember when he went into defense in the 2nd half vs richmond in round 2 last year.......a witches hat would have applied better pressure
Click to expand...
Yep… I’ve been saying it for a couple of years now whenever anyone suggests “berg to defense”..

It would be a disaster playing him in defense… the most lazy player in the comp is our dragon..

just watch him as a forward when he hasnt got the ball and his direct opponent has.. he just lazily jogs along after him.. he care’s naught about applying any pressure whatsoever.

as a defender his opponent would have a day out.. all their christmases will have come at once..
 
Kensy006 said:
Footage of him at training? Or when he has moved in the midfield for a short time? Either way that isn’t strong evidence he can be an elite full time mid in the AFL for a whole season and repeat it year in year out. I understand that is all you have to go by but you guys are making it sound like it is a move that will very likely be successful. I think that is too optimistic. I think it could be successful but I would not say it is likely. I understand why the club would want to give it a shot but settling being a specialist forward that goes into the midfield when the team needs will work too.


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Click to expand...
Pretty close minded view

Gary Ablett junior was a low possession forward before being shifted to midfield in his early 20s and becoming an all time great

Some players just have it
 
Trigger13 said:
Any news on Curtin’s injury?
Click to expand...
Hi am new poster so be kind. Was in Adelaide for the cricket and out for tea Wednesday night on Rundle Street. A couple of guys come in and sit down in table next to us. One who I am pretty sure was Curtin hobbled in (not badly but noticeable) with crimp bandage on knee( left from memory). I hope I am right and not spreading malicious rumours, but have been looking at this site this week with interest because of seeing whom I thought was Dan Curtin
 
Kensy006 said:
Being a forward takes instinct, creativity, arrogance, the ability to sense a moment. These guys have those things. Not many players do. Why push them into the midfield and turn them into something that doesn’t come as naturally? The players themselves might want to, I get why the coaches might give it a try, might or it might not but my money is on it not working.


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Click to expand...
I do agree with your statement completely, however I think what's being missed is that Sir Izak has both sets of tools in his kit bag, he can be equally as damaging in the midfield, especially if the blend of rotation is correct, IMO the 2024 season will see Izak attending 25% cba with most time spent up front and attending almost all forward stoppages while he hones his craft. By 2026 his time can be spent evenly divided between the 2.
Either way what a weapon we have loaded and ready to fire when needed.
 
Jeffcrowe said:
Pretty close minded view

Gary Ablett junior was a low possession forward before being shifted to midfield in his early 20s and becoming an all time great

Some players just have it
Click to expand...
Rankine would be far more dangerous as a MID than as a FWD .....his ability to cut thru traffic at pace ...elite decision making and ability to set fwd players up with kicking skills ....it's the obvious call

You're absolutely correct re Gary Ablett jnr career progression
 
WaynesWorld19 said:
Rankine would be far more dangerous as a MID than as a FWD .....his ability to cut thru traffic at pace ...elite decision making and ability to set fwd players up with kicking skills ....it's the obvious call

You're absolutely correct re Gary Ablett jnr career progression
Click to expand...
Agree with this 100%. Don't forget Rankine can rest forward anyway when not on the ball and we have other small forwards so him being a primary mid works in every way for us.
 

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