Bluemour Melting Pot XIX - Give Me Ed Baby - Return of the Prodigal Son

[Macca43]

And once again, no it's not moot.

Because just because you've decided that Eddie Betts' likely output for 1-2 years is more valuable than a 40% chance at a decent player, or a 17% chance at a 100 game player, or whatever random yardstick you're measuring draftees against, that doesn't mean it is impossible or unrealistic to argue against paying more than market value for him.

As I said "once it is established". I have made the argument that the stats demonstrate Betts is more valuable (not me deciding, the facts support) than a draftee at 39.

If you want to demonstrate that the facts don't support that "value" then go for you life, but simply saying we don't have to pay 39 is not establishing value.

 

[ferrisb]

I am a few pages behind so apologies if this has already been said, but while I do want Eddie to come back he doesn't just magically gift us an extra 37 goals or whatever it was, he'd be replacing someone else in the side so even if we could just add his total onto the team score you'd also have to take out whatever the bloke he's replacing scored.

True... Except 37 goals minus output from our current small forwards is not much different from 37 goals....

 

[Blue__Balls]

Again cost is not value.

"No it's not moot" Yes it is, if it is established his value is pick 39 (or greater) then anyone trying to say I wouldn't give up pick X (higher than 39) for him isn't applying his correct value. ie once I have established something is worth $100 it is ridiculous to say you wouldn't pay $80 for it.

Unless it's on sale for $20, in which case you're throwing money away.

 

[footyfan1978]

What did the Lions give up for Hodge?
Similar scenario, 2 years in the side as a mentor then move into a development/coach role.

Think it was a pick in 60's or 70's but keep in mind he had announced he had already retired before the change of mind. Eddie is still playing so a little more than a pick that late is probably around the mark at end of the day. But more important than pick is some other club has to pay for the difference in what we going to pay Eddie and what his present contract is. Crows paying some of his money is the first part of any proposed trade before even the pick is arrived at late in the draft. SOS is not going to do it unless everything is to his liking.

 

[Macca43]

Unless it's on sale for $20, in which case you're throwing money away.

Sigh. Value isn't cost.

 

[BringBackSimmo]

Thorp is player-coach of the Blues, it seems... the Launceston Blues

Mitch Thorp appointed Senior Coach for 2019 – Home of the Blues

launcestonfc.com.au

 

[MrJimmy]

Is it too late to pass on the rumour I heard in late 2013 that we were after Boyd from my hairdresser ?

Hmmm... interesting. A Blues supporter growing up if i recall correctly.

 

[GudOnya]

True... Except 37 goals minus output from our current small forwards is not much different from 37 goals....

Yeah not especially from memory, but even if it's just under a goal a game then 17 added is a fair difference to 37 added.

I'd still like him back though.

 

[Blue__Balls]

As I said "once it is established". I have made the argument that the stats demonstrate Betts is more valuable (not me deciding, the facts support) than a draftee at 39.

If you want to demonstrate that the facts don't support that "value" then go for you life, but simply saying we don't have to pay 39 is not establishing value.

They're not facts, Macca, they're opinions.

How do you come to the conclusion that 2 years of possible Betts football is more valuable than a percentage chance at a certain number of games? It's simply an interpretation of conveniently selected numbers with no correlation, not empirical evidence.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Sigh. Value isn't cost.

Value is irrelevant in an auction with one bidder.

 

[Dravid's in]

Right now I'd take a port Melbourne physio or #19 tram rumour....

Funny you should say that. One of the latest rumours in the Adelaide no discussion thread was actually from a conversation overheard on a bus.

 

[JustaBattler]

Sigh. Value isn't cost.

Whilst that phrase is 'popular' it is also wrong in any rational based theory of exchange.

Cost when used to describe payment for an exchange between buyer and seller;
is equivalent to price
and
price is the mechanism which sees both buyer and seller indifference curves intersect
which defines
value
at a certain point in time for both seller and buyer.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

More like...

This is Doch.

Doch can pre-season.

See Doch in the coaching box.

Booooo

 

[bmaurizio]

Coming out of retirement for us to rookie I’ve heard!

Very smart maneuver.

 

[Treesloth]

Whilst that phrase is 'popular' it is also wrong in any rational based theory of exchange.

Cost when used to describe payment for an exchange between buyer and seller;
is equivalent to price
and
price is the mechanism which sees both buyer and seller indifference curves intersect
which defines
value
at a certain point in time for both seller and buyer.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Funny you should say that. One of the latest rumours in the Adelaide no discussion thread was actually from a conversation overheard on a bus.

Saw that. Maybe we could an "only in adelaide" thread?

 

[Mr_Plow]

Now I know why our economy is stagnating.

 

[ferrisb]

Funny you should say that. One of the latest rumours in the Adelaide no discussion thread was actually from a conversation overheard on a bus.

Just like your cricketing namesake.... Nothing gets past you, Dravid...

 

[Macca43]

Whilst that phrase is 'popular' it is also wrong in any rational based theory of exchange.

Cost when used to describe payment for an exchange between buyer and seller;
is equivalent to price
and
price is the mechanism which sees both buyer and seller indifference curves intersect
which defines
value
at a certain point in time for both seller and buyer.

You are assuming both parties are rational, not under duress and that both parties value the item the same.

The final piece in a collectors set is worth more to the collector than the seller knows and how many times has someone on antiques road show bought pricelss piece at a car boot sale for $20.

 

[Macca43]

Value is irrelevant in an auction with one bidder.

Not to the bidder.

 

[Hands On]

Just got an email from 'the Messiah of rumours below>
Hi hands on,

I usually dont post an essay (Leave that to Gbatman) but here goes , Too busy to post can you tell all that Bets will come if there is no better option and crows are happy to deal on our terms, he will get game time if he earns it. 1. you can only fit 22 in the team at any given time if he is not in the ones he can add invaluable experience and mentor the young colts in the NB's. Club now needs to perform wins are important for memberships, sponsorship's etc.. If Eddie helps get 2 or 3 more wins than usual it helps.

Every club has your 2 or 3= players that just dont make it on their list, if Eddie turns out to be another list clogger then so be it. Its a low risk low cost, low priority option if it suits the club they will take the gamble.

Now go to the bluemer thread and throw a grenade out there like we are getting Grundy & Gaff or something similar before our board becomes the laughing stock of the big footy community debating what pick Betts is worth.

 

[Dadda Dave]

All this talk of Betts coming back is great..

But has it been mentioned anywhere here that 12 of his goals last season was against Gold Coast??

Yeah but didn't

Have we worked out who Brackets is yet?

Yes ...
He's our #11..

 

[Macca43]

They're not facts, Macca, they're opinions.

How do you come to the conclusion that 2 years of possible Betts football is more valuable than a percentage chance at a certain number of games? It's simply an interpretation of conveniently selected numbers with no correlation, not empirical evidence.

I have provided my facts and accepted other facts that show the chance of success of a draftee well below 50%. Eddie Betts last 2 years playing record indicate a very strong chance of playing 40 games and kicking 60 goals in the next 2 years, which is better than most pick 39's (or 3rd round or beyond) do in their career.

If you don't like those facts provide your own, i doubt you will contradict the opinion I have formed based on those facts.

 

[TerryWallet]

Funny you should say that. One of the latest rumours in the Adelaide no discussion thread was actually from a conversation overheard on a bus.

One thing you won't hear on that board is "overheard on the train".

 

[I bleed Blue]

Eddie Betts roving at the feet of Squidda next year.

Break out year coming up for Luke. I can feel it.

#getaroundhim