Bluemour Melting Pot XXXII - Reaching fever pitch! 🔥 🔥 🔥

[KohPhi]

If he was on our list for 4 years and developed the way he had then called for a trade home, all of you here would be livid at only receiving pick 6

Yep.. classic BigFooty List Management at it's best. Happens every year, and I'm sure across every Board.

Do what I do.. read everything, enjoy everyone's point of view, take most with a grain of salt and like me, be comforted that the Club couldn't give two shits how many here are 'livid', or feel we were 'bent over'.. with their trade decisions.

 

[slashin_velvet]

Who really cares what we paid for McGovern in hindsight - armchair trading past deals is the biggest waste of time.

Cerra is worth pick 6 (eventually 8) and change. He was a former pick 4 and has done nothing to show he is worth less than that - if anything we save a few years timing for development. Discount the pick for the salary we would have to take on (which is our elective so not a massive discount) - puts him at roughly 6 and a pick around the 50's.

Compare him to Petracca at the same age - 2017 & 2018 season (noting that Petracca was coming off an ACL and playing more forward so less touches, more goals):

Adam Cerra and Christian Petracca AFL Stats Comparison

Adam Cerra and Christian Petracca AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

Adam Cerra and Christian Petracca AFL Stats Comparison

Adam Cerra and Christian Petracca AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

 

[GordonBlue]

agreed, pick 6 could get us cerra from freo, or a cerra equivalent that is 3 years behind the freo cerra and we kill through poor development, or heaven forbid an SPS....pick 6 and steak knives for cerra is an easy call to make

Or we can pick up a McCrae with Pick 6

 

[AndyLucimitis]

Stephenson can play but is fairly unprofessional.

Yes - when God was giving out brains, Stephenson was holding the door open ....for the guy who normally held the door open.

 

[Coops93]

Who really cares what we paid for McGovern in hindsight - armchair trading past deals is the biggest waste of time.

Cerra is worth pick 6 (eventually 8) and change. He was a former pick 4 and has done nothing to show he is worth less than that - if anything we save a few years timing for development. Discount the pick for the salary we would have to take on (which is our elective so not a massive discount) - puts him at roughly 6 and a pick around the 50's.

Compare him to Petracca at the same age - 2017 & 2018 season (noting that Petracca was coming off an ACL and playing more forward so less touches, more goals):

Adam Cerra and Christian Petracca AFL Stats Comparison

Adam Cerra and Christian Petracca AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

Adam Cerra and Christian Petracca AFL Stats Comparison

Adam Cerra and Christian Petracca AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

They're not similar players really, the comparison isn't apt.

 

[james95]

Yep.. classic BigFooty List Management at it's best. Happens every year, and I'm sure across every Board.

Do what I do.. read everything, enjoy everyone's point of view, take most with a grain of salt and like me, be comforted that the Club couldn't give two shits how many here are 'livid', or feel we were 'bent over'.. with their trade decisions.

Idiots must trigger me a lot easier than you

 

[Skull Face]

Explain to me which 1st round pick we gave up for McGovern?

We never had #13. We never had #40, which Sydney received for giving up #13.

Are you trying to argue that Adelaide gave up 2 high 3rd round picks for McAdam instead of 1?

Are you trying to argue that receiving back a pick in the late 50s is that only thing saves the trade from = us giving up 13? If so lol

 

[AndyLucimitis]

Is there any chance we could re-rookie Levi if we don't pick up a backup ruck - is it allowed (assume it is).

 

[Stamos]

Are you trying to argue that receiving back a pick in the late 50s is that only thing saves the trade from = us giving up 13? If so lol

Huh? No. Why would I try and argue that?

We never had #13, nor did we have access to it. Sydney only traded #13 to Adelaide once Adelaide traded our picks AND their #40 (which again, we never had access to).

 

[DollarsandSense]

So........ any assistant coaches yet? Or is it going to be the VTB and Power show.

 

[Skull Face]

Huh? No. Why would I try and argue that?

We never had #13, nor did we have access to it. Sydney only traded #13 to Adelaide once Adelaide traded our picks AND their #40 (which again, we never had access to).

So we couldn't have traded McAdam for pick 40 and then just traded our picks plus 40 for 13 rather then McGovern?

 

[Blue__Balls]

Are you trying to argue that receiving back a pick in the late 50s is that only thing saves the trade from = us giving up 13? If so lol

We. Did. Not. Have. 13.

We were dealing for McGovern, had 26, 28 and access to McAdam. Adelaide wanted a first rounder. Sydney stepped in and helped facilitate the trade.

We were not going to drop our deal for McGovern halfway through the trade period to take Pick 13 (eventually 16) instead. We were never dealing for a first round pick, we were offering two seconds and change for a player. Which we got.

 

[slashin_velvet]

They're not similar players really, the comparison isn't apt.

Its the trajectory and performance that's relevant though. When you stack Cerra up against Dow this season, you can clearly see that Cerra is improving at a similar pace to a player like Petracca who many forget was a slow burn for the Dees.

Over their career, Dow and Cerra have similar overall stats, but for the latest season, there is a clear gap in performance.

Adam Cerra and Paddy Dow AFL Stats Comparison

Adam Cerra and Paddy Dow AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

 

[Skull Face]

We. Did. Not. Have. 13.

We were dealing for McGovern, had 26, 28 and access to McAdam. Adelaide wanted a first rounder. Sydney stepped in and helped facilitate the trade.

We were not going to drop our deal for McGovern halfway through the trade period to take Pick 13 (eventually 16) instead. We were never dealing for a first round pick, we were offering two seconds and change for a player. Which we got.

Why do you want to delude yourself on a technicality, Adelaide got pick 13 for McGovern and a pick they would have given up for McAdam anyway.

We didn't give it up directly but we gave up it's equivalency so what is the difference? All so you can feel better about the trade that was a complete failure.

You don't learn by pretending these things didn't happen, accept we ****ed up and try do better next time.

 

[JustaBattler]

If you are a buyer - you pay a tad more. If you are a seller - you get paid a tad less.

These are the rules of any trade game.

Game Theory 101.

A good negotiator becomes a buyer only when they know what they want and what they think it is worth - which includes the tad more component. A good negotiator only becomes a seller when they know they don't want what they are selling OR what they are selling helps them get what they want ( as above ) and that decision includes the 'tad less'component.

I would love to be on the other side of the trade table with 99% of people who post on here - because with half I know there is no trade possibility because there is no value compnoent - therefore I dont waste my time - and with the other half I know I am dealing with people who don't knwo how to value what they are trying to do.

eg SPS is a NO TRADE with WC ( based on quoted trade offers from WC) - because we can match their bid and we aren't in teh business of making other Clubs happy with a steal - thus impoversihing our own Club and sending poor signals to the rest of the list and every player manager. In fact - SPS and hjis manager have been duped if they think that a reasonable or rational offer to Carlton will be a 3rd rounde or less.

eg Cerra trsade- he is worth a top10 pick and probably a second rounder - because unlike SPS and heaps of others like him - he has developed and performed in line if not better than his picked position in the draft indicates.

One needs to seperate the natural inclination to 'win' by paying less or geting more ( which is marginal in terms of return) from the startegic imperative of getting who you want at a the right price- -see above.

IF SPS relationship with Carlton si so broken that he and his manager are happy for Carlton to NOT get a fair price - then the rational resposne is to let them know that either he changes his mind and stays OR he gets treated as a bad person and sent to the draft.

If a Club breaks this rule - then all it does is make the next trade(s) with the next Club(s) harder.

In a couple of the previous trade periods I have seen Carlton ignore basic negotiating startegy and it has cost the CLub

The most npoticeable example was allowing Essendon till the death of a trade period to agree to Daniher going to Sydney in order to get Papley - this led to Carlton having to say sorry to a potential trade with Wines coming in - if rumours are true. Thsi was an absolute DISASTER for list management in my books and easily avoided - by settign a time limit on the trade and not giving them a free carry option to teh end of the period.

The second occured last year wirth Saad trade - when it was obvvious that Carlton should have split its pick 8 and offered one of those picks to Essendon - which would have been enough - given Saad and his managwer were happy to walk Saad through....Essendon had NOTHING except bluff going their way and Carlton was STOOPID not splitting that pick 8 - peopel on here ( including me ) were making that call very early.

I think our list management team needs some lessons in the basics of negotiation.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Why do you want to delude yourself on a technicality, Adelaide got pick 13 for McGovern and a pick they would have given up for McAdam anyway.

We didn't give it up directly but we gave up it's equivalency so what is the difference? All so you can feel better about the trade that was a complete failure.

You don't learn by pretending these things didn't happen, accept we f’ed up and try do better next time.

Sure, I'll try to "do better" next time.



The technicality here is you trying to claim that we gave up a pick we never possessed, and was never on the table until midway through our negotiations for McGovern.

No club is going to go that far in trying to secure a player, only to cut them loose halfway through trade week because an opportunity came up to get a draft pick instead.

 

[bmaurizio]

Yes - when God was giving out brains, Stephenson was holding the door open ....for the guy who normally held the door open.

Yes the maturity level of quite a few AFL footballers is a concern to their respective clubs, some just never seem to get with the program.

 

[MitchRobinson12]

Any chance Voss can convince SPS to stay?

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Bugger that - will end up being pick 60

Austin is young and has a chance to claim his list manager reputation. Must stand his ground here or other clubs will keep rolling him for years to come. He has to start negotiating for pick 29 which will be mid 30s on draft day, accepting that he could up with pick 35 instead. Ess managed to convince everyone that Saad was worth pick 8 and media ran with that.

Picks in the second and third round generally come in after bids, though we’ll be thinking in names and not numbers.

 

[Gethelred]

Sure, I'll try to "do better" next time.



The technicality here is you trying to claim that we gave up a pick we never possessed, and was never on the table until midway through our negotiations for McGovern.

No club is going to go that far in trying to secure a player, only to cut them loose halfway through trade week because an opportunity came up to get a draft pick instead.

The problem with arguing with a skull: there's nothing inside, so whatever you say - brilliance or foolishness - goes in one ear, echoes a little, then out the other unimpeded...

 

[Gavstar]

If you are a buyer - you pay a tad more. If you are a seller - you get paid a tad less.

These are the rules of any trade game.

Game Theory 101.

A good negotiator becomes a buyer only when they know what they want and what they think it is worth - which includes the tad more component. A good negotiator only becomes a seller when they know they don't want what they are selling OR what they are selling helps them get what they want ( as above ) and that decision includes the 'tad less'component.

I would love to be on the other side of the trade table with 99% of people who post on here - because with half I know there is no trade possibility because there is no value compnoent - therefore I dont waste my time - and with the other half I know I am dealing with people who don't knwo how to value what they are trying to do.

eg SPS is a NO TRADE with WC ( based on quoted trade offers from WC) - because we can match their bid and we aren't in teh business of making other Clubs happy with a steal - thus impoversihing our own Club and sending poor signals to the rest of the list and every player manager. In fact - SPS and hjis manager have been duped if they think that a reasonable or rational offer to Carlton will be a 3rd rounde or less.

eg Cerra trsade- he is worth a top10 pick and probably a second rounder - because unlike SPS and heaps of others like him - he has developed and performed in line if not better than his picked position in the draft indicates.

One needs to seperate the natural inclination to 'win' by paying less or geting more ( which is marginal in terms of return) from the startegic imperative of getting who you want at a the right price- -see above.

IF SPS relationship with Carlton si so broken that he and his manager are happy for Carlton to NOT get a fair price - then the rational resposne is to let them know that either he changes his mind and stays OR he gets treated as a bad person and sent to the draft.

If a Club breaks this rule - then all it does is make the next trade(s) with the next Club(s) harder.

In a couple of the previous trade periods I have seen Carlton ignore basic negotiating startegy and it has cost the CLub

The most npoticeable example was allowing Essendon till the death of a trade period to agree to Daniher going to Sydney in order to get Papley - this led to Carlton having to say sorry to a potential trade with Wines coming in - if rumours are true. Thsi was an absolute DISASTER for list management in my books and easily avoided - by settign a time limit on the trade and not giving them a free carry option to teh end of the period.

The second occured last year wirth Saad trade - when it was obvvious that Carlton should have split its pick 8 and offered one of those picks to Essendon - which would have been enough - given Saad and his managwer were happy to walk Saad through....Essendon had NOTHING except bluff going their way and Carlton was STOOPID not splitting that pick 8 - peopel on here ( including me ) were making that call very early.

I think our list management team needs some lessons in the basics of negotiation.

We sacked our best negotiator.

I would say with the Papley negotiations SOS may have overestimated the ability of Dodoro to do a deal re: Daniher.

The other thing I would say is there is a go-home COVID factor now that means "family" is seen as a reasonable excuse.



Some reading for the Trade team below

Best Negotiation Books: A Negotiation Reading List

Our list of 22 negotiation books by Program on Negotiation (PON) experts spans a variety of negotiation topics and perspectives.

www.pon.harvard.edu

 

[bmaurizio]

SPS walked quite a while ago, so it’s a lost cause in this era of a pandemic, I don’t begrudge him for wanting to go back to the West.
He’s disenchanted, don’t blame him actually , our club has been a shambles throughout his playing career as a Bagger.
Whatever Austin can negotiate will be fine don’t we shouldn’t expect too much.
Freo’s list mngr Walls is reasonable, like his old man, as long as Bell butts out.
Same for the Adam Cerra negotiations.

 

[Stamos]

So we couldn't have traded McAdam for pick 40 and then just traded our picks plus 40 for 13 rather then McGovern?

No

 

[JustaBattler]

We sacked our best negotiator.

I would say with the Papley negotiations SOS may have overestimated the ability of Dodoro to do a deal reaniher.

The other thing I would say is there is a COVID factor no


Some reading for the Trade team below

Best Negotiation Books: A Negotiation Reading List

Our list of 22 negotiation books by Program on Negotiation (PON) experts spans a variety of negotiation topics and perspectives.

www.pon.harvard.edu

I think what AFL calls 'good negotiators' wouldn't get through the door of seriosu businesses tbh. Too much ego and enjoying their days in media spotlight...their two weeks of relevance in the public eye...

I think Geelong have been the canniest traders in AFL for years - and they have certainly feasted off Carlton and others - whilst at the same time appearing to be 'good to deal with'...

I think Richmond have been the most creative - and despite some misses have made some astute buys to suit their list and needs every year. I think Richmond's list management is in sync with their game plan requirements- more than any other CLub - and I think Melbourne learned a lot from Richmond's approach to getting who they want to satisfy needs.

The general rule is KNOW what you want and WHY - and then pay what you need to pay to get it.

There are no real 'free lunches' - there are just good deals ( fair) and bad deals - good processes and bad processes.

 

[JustaBattler]

SPS walked quite a while ago, so it’s a lost cause in this era of a pandemic, I don’t begrudge him for wanting to go back to the West.
He’s disenchanted, don’t blame him actually , our club has been a shambles throughout his playing career as a Bagger.
Whatever Austin can negotiate will be fine don’t we shouldn’t expect too much.
Freo’s list mngr Walls is reasonable, like his old man, as long as Bell butts out.
Same for the Adam Cerra negotiations.

SPS is being badly managed by his manager.