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Brownlow Medal 2009 (Part 3)
- Thread starter banana_bus
- Start date
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Re: Brownlow Medal part 3
These are my Stkilda predictions but I only do it for a hobby could be way off the mark
Ball1Dal Santo18Fisher3Gardiner1Gilbert2Goddard16Gram4Hayes14Koscitzke8Milne4Montagna21Ray5Riewoldt19Schneider4
These are my Stkilda predictions but I only do it for a hobby could be way off the mark
carlton2007
Debutant
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3
Isnt that the same as 2-1 odds??? i think your odds for davey will be slashed to 1.5?
eg if you bet $100 at 2-1, your set to win $200. but if it is a tie, you win half of the profit. so you would get $150 back, which equates to $1.5. thats wat i thought happens.
so in the same situation with vince. $100 at 3-1 = $300 return ($200 profit). if its a tie, you get back half of the profit. so you will end up with $200.
for a three way split, you get a third of the profit back.
Isnt that the same as 2-1 odds??? i think your odds for davey will be slashed to 1.5?
eg if you bet $100 at 2-1, your set to win $200. but if it is a tie, you win half of the profit. so you would get $150 back, which equates to $1.5. thats wat i thought happens.
so in the same situation with vince. $100 at 3-1 = $300 return ($200 profit). if its a tie, you get back half of the profit. so you will end up with $200.
for a three way split, you get a third of the profit back.
mitchell2buddy
Debutant
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3
it would be nice if it was like that, unfortunately its the payout that gets halved, not the profit. So using your numbers
if you bet $100 at 2-1, your set to win $200. but if it is a tie its halved so you only get the $100 you invested back
$100 at 3-1 = $300 return. if its a tie you will end up with $150. if its a 3 way tie you end up even again with a $100 return.
swan tieing with medhurst cut back my win by a fair bit last year! that being said half is still better than nothing!
it would be nice if it was like that, unfortunately its the payout that gets halved, not the profit. So using your numbers
if you bet $100 at 2-1, your set to win $200. but if it is a tie its halved so you only get the $100 you invested back
$100 at 3-1 = $300 return. if its a tie you will end up with $150. if its a 3 way tie you end up even again with a $100 return.
swan tieing with medhurst cut back my win by a fair bit last year! that being said half is still better than nothing!
carlton2007
Debutant
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3
so if its a four way tie you lose money? surely you should make some profit because you have picked the winner??
it would be nice if it was like that, unfortunately its the payout that gets halved, not the profit. So using your numbers
if you bet $100 at 2-1, your set to win $200. but if it is a tie its halved so you only get the $100 you invested back
$100 at 3-1 = $300 return. if its a tie you will end up with $150. if its a 3 way tie you end up even again with a $100 return.
swan tieing with medhurst cut back my win by a fair bit last year! that being said half is still better than nothing!
so if its a four way tie you lose money? surely you should make some profit because you have picked the winner??
asanque
Premium Platinum
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3
No we are talking about different odds.
You are talking 2 to 1 which will net you $2 profit for every $1 you put in.
I was talking $2.00 on Davey, which will net you $1 profit for every $1 you put in.
You will see that your example for Davey has the same result as my example for Vince.
No we are talking about different odds.
You are talking 2 to 1 which will net you $2 profit for every $1 you put in.
I was talking $2.00 on Davey, which will net you $1 profit for every $1 you put in.
You will see that your example for Davey has the same result as my example for Vince.
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3
yep, a 4 way tie with something having odds < $4 means losing money. The betting agencies have to look at it from their perspective, not the punters, if its a 4 way tie they have to pay out 4 different results, and unless pretty much unless all the takings were for the 4 that tied something is going to be paying significantly more than $4. They have to make a system that will be profitable too them, otherwise they'd be out of business pretty quickly!
yep, a 4 way tie with something having odds < $4 means losing money. The betting agencies have to look at it from their perspective, not the punters, if its a 4 way tie they have to pay out 4 different results, and unless pretty much unless all the takings were for the 4 that tied something is going to be paying significantly more than $4. They have to make a system that will be profitable too them, otherwise they'd be out of business pretty quickly!
carlton2007
Debutant
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3
so if davey lets say ties with bruce, you get your money back? and if its a three way tie you lose money?
so if davey lets say ties with bruce, you get your money back? and if its a three way tie you lose money?
carlton2007
Debutant
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3
hmm interesting! so lets hope that their are no ties in anything!!! otherwise half my multis will be slashed! have you done your own personal count?
hmm interesting! so lets hope that their are no ties in anything!!! otherwise half my multis will be slashed! have you done your own personal count?
- Jul 12, 2003
- 6,984
- 12,847
- AFL Club
- Carlton
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3
Anyone having last minute nerves and is going to put some savers on?
Who's been to a TAB this week/today and was it busy?
Anyone having last minute nerves and is going to put some savers on?
Who's been to a TAB this week/today and was it busy?
asanque
Premium Platinum
The Newt
Senior List
asanque
Premium Platinum
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3
For future reference, if you are a Brownlow punter, in my view you really should be putting the money on around round 20.
After the finalisation of round 22, all your bets should be placed.(Edit:
Otherwise you are really not getting the best odds. There is also little value left in the team markets by this stage.).
If your predictions are accurate, your players will continually shorten.
The next few weeks are then spent hedging.
After reviewing the recent counts by others, my primary concerns are:
Carlton - Judd
North Melbourne - Harvey.
I have both in my multis, and looking to hedge.
Blues - Murphy, Gibbs - hard to decide who will poll better
North - Swallow, Mcintosh, Petrie - ditto
For future reference, if you are a Brownlow punter, in my view you really should be putting the money on around round 20.
After the finalisation of round 22, all your bets should be placed.(Edit:
Otherwise you are really not getting the best odds. There is also little value left in the team markets by this stage.).
If your predictions are accurate, your players will continually shorten.
The next few weeks are then spent hedging.
After reviewing the recent counts by others, my primary concerns are:
Carlton - Judd
North Melbourne - Harvey.
I have both in my multis, and looking to hedge.
Blues - Murphy, Gibbs - hard to decide who will poll better
North - Swallow, Mcintosh, Petrie - ditto
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3
I've pretty much worried myself into thinking that Clark won't win the ruck group. I have Clark and Cox equal on 8 but for some reason I saved Clark with Ryder. For some reason I feel like Ryder has polling potential. Stupid decision. Still If I put $10 on Cox at $4 I'd win back the money I put on if he wins.
I've pretty much worried myself into thinking that Clark won't win the ruck group. I have Clark and Cox equal on 8 but for some reason I saved Clark with Ryder. For some reason I feel like Ryder has polling potential. Stupid decision. Still If I put $10 on Cox at $4 I'd win back the money I put on if he wins.
mitchell2buddy
Debutant
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3
Was there today, wasn't busy, i think you will find alot of people who just have a genereal interest in the brownlow will go this w.e or on the night.
Swan
Ablett
Fevola
Vince @21.24 x 189 = 4014.36
Was there today, wasn't busy, i think you will find alot of people who just have a genereal interest in the brownlow will go this w.e or on the night.
Swan
Ablett
Fevola
Vince @21.24 x 189 = 4014.36
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3
Just did this at the TAB, $50 on each:
Groups
Ablett/Vince/Gibbs for a return of $295
Ablett/Vince/Pendlebury for a return of $708
Vince/Gibbs/Swan/Fevola/Clark for a return of $6750
Just did this at the TAB, $50 on each:
Groups
Ablett/Vince/Gibbs for a return of $295
Ablett/Vince/Pendlebury for a return of $708
Vince/Gibbs/Swan/Fevola/Clark for a return of $6750
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3
Interesting that you have hayes so low. For the last couple of years i've just used this method for my polling -
0 - 1 (good chance to sneak a vote)
1 - 2 (near certain to poll but there's a clear bog on the day)
2 - 3 (toss up between 2 bogs)
1 - 3 (multiple standout performances)
3 - if bog is a monty
So i usually have 4 - 5 players for 1 game.
I use the totals of the high / low tallies to get an average score for each player.
I've found there's less margin for error this way just in case a player misses out in a game they were put down for polling in. I also only bet on the more successful teams that've won at least 50% of their games. Teams with very few wins are just to hard to gauge properly.
Personally i think there's a big chance a saint could take it out this year, with hayes being the most likely. i actually have him on top, just ahead of ablett and black...with swan, montagna and possibly selwood (would need alot of luck) within striking distance.
can't wait to see how wrong we all are on brownlow night in any case
good luck all!
Interesting that you have hayes so low. For the last couple of years i've just used this method for my polling -
0 - 1 (good chance to sneak a vote)
1 - 2 (near certain to poll but there's a clear bog on the day)
2 - 3 (toss up between 2 bogs)
1 - 3 (multiple standout performances)
3 - if bog is a monty
So i usually have 4 - 5 players for 1 game.
I use the totals of the high / low tallies to get an average score for each player.
I've found there's less margin for error this way just in case a player misses out in a game they were put down for polling in. I also only bet on the more successful teams that've won at least 50% of their games. Teams with very few wins are just to hard to gauge properly.
Personally i think there's a big chance a saint could take it out this year, with hayes being the most likely. i actually have him on top, just ahead of ablett and black...with swan, montagna and possibly selwood (would need alot of luck) within striking distance.
can't wait to see how wrong we all are on brownlow night in any case
good luck all!
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3
Probably as good as any system going around in my opinion. there are so many games every season where you could pretty much raffle 4-5 players for the 3 voting positions, this helps a lot with those games. while you dont have a nice rounded leader board to reference at the end of the season, you do have a more accurate range for each player that can be intepreted however you see fit
Edit: do you have any results you are happy to post? appologies if you've already done so and i've missed them
Probably as good as any system going around in my opinion. there are so many games every season where you could pretty much raffle 4-5 players for the 3 voting positions, this helps a lot with those games. while you dont have a nice rounded leader board to reference at the end of the season, you do have a more accurate range for each player that can be intepreted however you see fit
Edit: do you have any results you are happy to post? appologies if you've already done so and i've missed them
- Thread starter
- #197
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3
You do remember how many votes Cox polled last year dont you?
You do remember how many votes Cox polled last year dont you?
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3
When I was doing the votes for Watson/Stanton I didn't really notice Ryder at all. Even the Anzac Day match where I gave him 3 votes (purely based on watching the game), he only had 16 disposals. It should be interesting come Monday.
When I was doing the votes for Watson/Stanton I didn't really notice Ryder at all. Even the Anzac Day match where I gave him 3 votes (purely based on watching the game), he only had 16 disposals. It should be interesting come Monday.
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3
Ryder will get the three votes for ANZAC Day. 13 tackels, 27 hitouts and a goal + The medal.
Ryder will get the three votes for ANZAC Day. 13 tackels, 27 hitouts and a goal + The medal.
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3
A couple of times throughout the year I wanted to fit Ryder in the votes, but ended leaving him on just the three from anzac day. He does have a big presence around the middle though, some of his tap work was amazing and he had some big tackling games which will be noticed. Takes a few hangers aswell which helps. Could be 3 or less or could rack 10+ who knows. I'm not sure you can say that just cause Cox didn't get votes last year he won't get any this year. He got 12 votes in 17 games in 2006 and had a couple of standout games in wins and close losses this year. I think 7-8 is around the mark and could be enough to win the group. Saying that, I haven't seen one analysis that doesn't have Clark as pretty much a sure thing.
A couple of times throughout the year I wanted to fit Ryder in the votes, but ended leaving him on just the three from anzac day. He does have a big presence around the middle though, some of his tap work was amazing and he had some big tackling games which will be noticed. Takes a few hangers aswell which helps. Could be 3 or less or could rack 10+ who knows. I'm not sure you can say that just cause Cox didn't get votes last year he won't get any this year. He got 12 votes in 17 games in 2006 and had a couple of standout games in wins and close losses this year. I think 7-8 is around the mark and could be enough to win the group. Saying that, I haven't seen one analysis that doesn't have Clark as pretty much a sure thing.
