Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

[Dunn - Well Done]

Need an opinion guys
Who do you reckon is more of a chance of upsetting their more fancied teammate, Swallow>Harvey or Pendles>Swan ?

Pendles over Swan is more likely IMO

Nice to umpires, polled better than expected last year IIRC, centre clearances, tackles, smooth mover.

I think Harvey is just about a sure thing to beat Swallow. I think Swallow will need at least 12-15 votes and i cant see Swallow having that in his year. Harvey polled 9 in 15 games last year and has had a much better season in a side that has won more games.

Swallow in some of the kangaroo wins
VS hawks (15 posses 1 goal)
vs dees (21 posses 1 goal)
vs Carl (19 posses)
vs Brisbane (21 posses 2 goals)
vs Fremantle (22 posses)

Wont poll in any of the above
vs WCE R3 (Harvey easy BOG, Swallow may not poll or might sneak 2)
vs Adel R8 (interesting game with 29 poss 2 goals, But Boomer kicked 3 with 24 posses and Rawlings had 37 posses)
vs Rich R16 (L.Adams BOG with 3.3 goals and high posses, Swallow should get 2 but even Wells could get that 2)
vs WCE (Should get the 3 on stats, but from memory he didnt stand out, i watched him closely this game)
vs Melb (doubt he will poll with 25 poss 2 goals)

Unfortunately his ceiling wont be good enough, he has performed poorly in to many wins for kangaroos in those 5 games where he wont figure.

 

[Brownlow King]

i reckon pendles will knock off swan and almost win but very tight

Pendles. I was just going over some analysis of last year vs this year.

2009 :
I had Swan on 25.75 = 12 votes
Pendlebury on 14.7 = 13 votes

2010 :
I have Swan on 23.9
I have Pendlebury on 22.45

Based on this Pendles is amazing value to knock him over. I've rated Swan harsher this year and probably Pendles easier ( due to how they both polled in 09 ) but the numbers talk.

 

[Athomas]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/jack-riewoldt-is-best-of-richmond/story-e6frf9jf-1225913002252

RICHMOND forward Jack Riewoldt collected his second medal in five days when he was awarded Richmond's best-and-fairest on Wednesday night.

Riewoldt, 21, pipped his captain Chris Newman by six votes, with 210, to claim his first Jack Dyer medal.

Good, hoping for more of this

 

[premiers06]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/jack-riewoldt-is-best-of-richmond/story-e6frf9jf-1225913002252



Good, hoping for more of this

Would be nice

 

[PieBeast]

Cheers boys
Looks like i'll be using Pendles in most of my cover bets.
I'm of the opinion if Pendles will outpoll Swan he will actually win it.

 

[Brownlow King]

Cheers boys
Looks like i'll be using Pendles in most of my cover bets.
I'm of the opinion if Pendles will outpoll Swan he will actually win it.

Yep but watch out for the bald nut from Geel who is now my clear top pick to win the medal.
I just did Swallow and Harvey 2009 vs 2010 :

2009
Harvey 12.85 = 9
Swallow 1.75 ( ??!! ) = 7

2010
Harvey 18.25 so a much better year
Swallow 14 ditto

Swallow could knock him over but I do like Boomer and the way he plays / polling history.

 

[mattybomb22]

Pendles. I was just going over some analysis of last year vs this year.

2009 :
I had Swan on 25.75 = 12 votes
Pendlebury on 14.7 = 13 votes

2010 :
I have Swan on 23.9
I have Pendlebury on 22.45

Based on this Pendles is amazing value to knock him over. I've rated Swan harsher this year and probably Pendles easier ( due to how they both polled in 09 ) but the numbers talk.

I hope you're right BK.
Am heartbroken after all the study and help from all here , and good result last year , can't get any multis on in Brissy.
am stuck with original Pendles - Geelong to make final doubles.
good luck everyone who got on ok

 

[PieBeast]

Yep but watch out for the bald nut from Geel who is now my clear top pick to win the medal.
I just did Swallow and Harvey 2009 vs 2010 :

2009
Harvey 12.85 = 9
Swallow 1.75 ( ??!! ) = 7

2010
Harvey 18.25 so a much better year
Swallow 14 ditto

Swallow could knock him over but I do like Boomer and the way he plays / polling history.

Thanks BK, not much i can do if Ablett wins, as i only have Pendles backed outright and only spend 50 on that at the start of the year.

I'm doing multis having Watson/Brown/Thompson/Ablett/Hodge/Harvey as anchors and mixing them with /Swan/Pendles Cassisi/Boak, Sylvia/Green and Cooney/Boyd
Will take a few with Swallow.

 

[hot dogs]

I am in the same boat as the guys with Brown/Watson/Thompson. if one of them gets knocked over i will be in a world of trouble. but on the otherhand if they all get up i will be a very happy man . i would love it if Swallow could win North's count i would come out with a very nice profit if this happened along with a few of my other players. should be a great night if i can work through putting all my bets on the machine

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

My brain is about to explode, i cant seem to get the right amount of legs with my players and cover all of them.

Im wanting to have Sylvia/Green, Boak/Cassisi, Hayes/Goddard/NDS, Harvey (in about 80%)/Swallow, Watson (90%), Brown (100%), Thompson (100%), With Boyd and Pendlebury on the end of a few.

 

[maxlad]

wow unitab are seriously on the ball, even if they were multi-ing id still go victorian tab

 

[AhSteveSteve27]

I hope you're right BK.
Am heartbroken after all the study and help from all here , and good result last year , can't get any multis on in Brissy.
am stuck with original Pendles - Geelong to make final doubles.
good luck everyone who got on ok

Why can't you just open an account mate? Ive opened one with vic TAB and I'm not even in the country.

 

[stretcharmstrong]

Jesus Christ, Green into $3, opened at $6 yesterday!!

On the other hand, Sylvia opened at $4 and hasn't moved...

 

[FootyStar#1]

Need to win so bad: Thompson, Harvey and Brown

If they win, im a little bit ****.ed: K Cornes, D Cross, B Moloney, S Tuck

 

[bpg1986]

Here's my report for the year, now that my bets are on. Good luck everyone, I'm with the consencious here, GO JUDDY!



Adelaide

Thompson 13 (10-15)
Douglas 8 (6-9)
Johncock 5 (4-9)
Goodwin 5 (5-7)

Tip: Thompson had a great year and should win this easily. He polled well last year, and my results suggest he cannot be caught.

Thompson is a lock @ 1.40

Brisbane

Brown 12 (12-14)
Rischitelli 10 (4-12)
Black 7 (2-13)
Brennan 7 (6-10)
Power 6 (4-8)

Brown looks the clear pick due to his ability to dominate games. Rischitelli and Black had solid seasons, and if the umpires look favourably they could sneak a draw or win respectively.

Brown is @ 1.60 and looks safe. Rischitelli is way over though @ 17’s and should also be used in some multi’s. Risk Black @ 4.00.

Carlton

Judd 23 (16-30)
Simpson 8 (5-12)
Murphy 8 (3-12)

Judd is @ 1.02. Sigh. Simpson needs a miracle @ 51’s.

Collingwood

Swan 21 (15-34)
Pendlebury 20 (13-25)
Didak 9 (7-13)

This is an interesting market. Swan was a moral to win last season but Pendlebury snatched it. Both have taken their games to a new level this season, but which one will the umpires favour?

Swan has the higher ceiling and could possibly win this easily, but Pendlebury is a better chance than @ 4.00 suggests. Put Pendlebury in the occasional multi.

Essendon

Watson 14 (12-20)
Lovett-Murray 5 (3-5)
Jetta 5 (3-6)

Watson is safe @ 1.65

Fremantle

Sandilands 15 (12-23)
Barlow 13 (11-16)
Pavlich 8 (6-14)

Sandilands should win this, but he’s no certainty. Barlow and Pavlich could snatch it if the umpires failed to notice the big man.

Sandilands should win but is some risk @ 1.40, He could be worth adding to the odd multi, especially with Pavlich in the mix as well @ 17’s. Risk Barlow @ 3.25

Geelong

Ablett 26 (20-30)
Selwood 24 (11-26)
Bartel 17 (11-20)
Chapman 13 (8-16)

The big names at Geelong have all had excellent seasons once again. Ablett (1.22) should win this but Selwood is not without hope. If the umpires aren’t feeling GAJ this season Selwood could be multi magic @6.50. Throw him in the occasional one.

Hawthorn

Hodge 22 (19-26)
Mitchell 11 (5-19)
Franklin 10 (8-14)

Hodge (1.15) really should win this, but Mitchell (13’s) has a lifeline, and for that reason I’d avoid this market.

Melbourne

Sylvia 11 (8-13)
Green 9 (4-14)
McDonald 8 (5-11)
Moloney 8 (3-10)
Davey 5 (4-12)

One of the hardest teams to call. Any of the 5 mentioned could win, but the tremendous value of Sylvia @ 4’s and Green @ 5.50’s make them worth interchanging in your multis.

North Melbourne

Harvey 22 (11-24)
Swallow 16 (12-21)
Wells 10 (4-12)


Two real chances in Harvey (1.40) and Swallow (4’s). Harvey should win but Swallow should be used in multis as well because of his value.

Port Adelaide

Boak 13 (7-16)
Cassisi 7 (5-16)
Rodan 7 (6-10)
K Cornes 5 (4-10)
Pearce 5 (2-9)


A very open market that should be attacked due to the value. Boak @ 4.50 is the standout. With a higher amount of potential voting games than the others, he is the main chance to win this group clearly. Cassisi is the main threat and should be saved on @ 2.50. Rodan is also worth saving on @ 17’s. Risk K Cornes (2.50) and Pearce (11’s).

Richmond

Delideo 10 (6-10)
Riewoldt 7 (7-12)
Tuck 6 (5-7)

Two real chances again in Deledio (2.75) and Riewoldt (1.90). Use them interchangeably in your multis.

St Kilda

Hayes 18 (11-27)
Goddard 17 (11-23)
Montagna 15 (11-15)
Dal Santo 11 (5-16)

Another open market, although Hayes should be the favourite and is worth taking @ 2.75. Goddard @ 2.25 and Montagna @ 4.00 are no value. Save on Dal Santo, who the umpires like, because he’s way over @ 15’s.

Sydney

Jack 16 (14-17)
Goodes 15 (10-24)
Bolton 10 (7-14)

Jack is way over @ 7’s. Unfortunately he is up against polling machine Goodes (1.35) who has had just as good a season. If Goodes polls like in past seasons he will win easily. Use both of them in your multis.

West Coast

Priddis 8 (7-8)
LeCras 6 (6-8)
Cox 3 (3-5)
Naitinui 3 (3-5)

No value here.

Western Bulldogs

Cooney 16 (12-20)
Boyd 14 (11-21)
Giansiracusa 12 (5-14)
Cross 10 (6-12)

Cooney (2.50) and Boyd (4.50) are the two standout picks and should be used in your multis.

Overall

Ablett 26 (20-30)
Selwood 24 (11-26)
Judd 23 (16-30)
Hodge 22 (19-26)
Harvey 22 (11-24)
Swan 21 (15-34)
Pendlebury 20 (13-25)
Hayes 18 (11-27)
Goddard 17 (11-23)
Bartel 17 (11-20)



According to my results the 4 main chances seem to be:

#1: Gary Ablett Jr @ 4.00

Another stellar season from Ablett who should possibly be going for his 4th Charlie this season. Has been a favourite from the start and expect to see a clear lead by the 10th Round. He was quiet through the middle stretch, however if Ablett is within 3 votes of anyone at the start of Round 20, he wins. He comes home like a bullet and with the highest amount of ‘Minimum Votes’ he looks the clear top pick.

Ablett is almost worth smashing @ 4.00

#2: Dane Swan @ 2.50

The bookies are for the most part on the money. Dane Swan has the most polling potential and is capable of leaving them behind. However, he has less ‘Definite 3’s’ than the other top contenders, so it’s possible last year’s debacle repeats itself.

Swan is perhaps the worthy winner but @ 2.50 he is no value whatsoever.

#3: Chris Judd @ 17.00

Judd has been at juicy odds for a large part of the season for no obvious reason. The voting superstar has had a better season this year, in a team that has done better, than he did last year. Also in his favour is that Murphy and Gibbs have been quiet this season, meaning less competition for votes.

The only factor I see hurting Judd is if his suspension last season, and his avoided suspension this season change the umpires opinion of him. It would be very brave to say this is the case.

Judd @ 17.00 is the standout pick.

#4: Luke Hodge @ 9.00

Hodge was brilliant this year and can win, but his quiet end to the season means he needs a large lead after Round 17. He has less potential voting games than the other three above him, so unfortunately for Hodge, even if he polls to his ‘Maximum Votes’ he still may not win.

I wouldn’t want to be on Hodge @ 9.00

The next tier of outsiders are:

#5: Joel Selwood – Needs to poll in games where the votes are competitive. Can win if everything goes his way. Worth a look @ 34.00.

#6: Scott Pendlebury – Has had an excellent season, and if Swan doesn’t poll Pendlebury will be a serious threat. Needs favours to win though and is too short @ 12.00.


#7: Lenny Hayes – The only Saint with a realistic hope. Hayes has had an excellent season once again but will lose votes to his other gun teammates. If the umpires look his way he can make a run and is tempting @ 26.00.

#8 : Brent Harvey – Has stayed under the radar this season, but he needs to poll well in too many losses to be considered dangerous. Harvey @ 21.00 is way under.

The real longshots are Goddard, Sandilands and Goodes and the rest have no chance.

 

[Thursfieldness]

Can anyone with a luxbet account confirm they've multied most club votes?

Apparently you can, but regardless of the multi odds any multi over 2000.00 goes through, but at 2000.00.

 

[Cat for Life]

Can anyone with a luxbet account confirm they've multied most club votes?

Apparently you can, but regardless of the multi odds any multi over 2000.00 goes through, but at 2000.00.

They allow multi.

 

[Rhino5]

So I log into my sportsbet account, the team votes are up, but I can't multi them? Poor form.

 

[Effes]

So I log into my sportsbet account, the team votes are up, but I can't multi them? Poor form.

For a small period last year they did allow the team multis, but yeh otherwise no.

 

[Rhino5]

For a small period last year they did allow the team multis, but yeh otherwise no.

I wonder if there will be a small period again? I certainly was able to do it last year with the same account.

 

[AjsGuns]

sportsbet arnt allowing multis its been confirmed numerous times.

 

[Rhino5]

No dramas - I thought that might have been the case but couldn't remember and didn't want to trawl through the whole thread.

 

[Notorious_29]

Green - 3.50
Sylvia - 4.00

On Luxbet now, lot's of money coming in for Green obviously.

 

[AjsGuns]

green is @ $3 now, i prefer Sylvia personally.

 

[WeetBixKid]

Phew, well I'm done.

Have Watson in about 90% of my bets, Thompson/Brown in about 80%, one of Hayes/Monty in about 75%, one of Sylvia/Green & Boak/Cassisi in about 65%. Here's hoping these boys get up.

Have slight cover with player not listed at Melb/Port which was 11-1 & 17-1. Also have Swallow/Harvey, Riewoldt/Deledio, Goodes/Jack & in quite a few too. Decent nibbles on Boyd/Cooney & Pendlebury, little nibble on Pav.

Cornes, Goddard, Bolton, Winderlich, Risci, Black, Tuck, Moloney, Newman or Douglas getting up would really hurt. Best of luck to everyone.