Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

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id assume changed odds


WBD

13-gia
12-boyd
11-cooney
10-Griffen

certainly some value in any other player market

Boyd 17
Cooney 12
Gia 12
Cross 12
Hall9
Griffin 7
Gilbee 7
Harbrow 2
Lake 2
Grant 3


Griffin though has the highest ceiling of all those, could very well be around 12-13.

i am taking Boyd for value, and will also include other player not listed.
 

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Thoughts on risking Goddard? Dal Santo is easy to cover for not much being 15-1. Would make things easier to forget him & then work around Hayes + Monty. I've read the spreadsheet & most have him pretty high, he's had a great season but does come off as a prick too...
 
Thoughts on risking Goddard? Dal Santo is easy to cover for not much being 15-1. Would make things easier to forget him & then work around Hayes + Monty.

Im risking Montagna/Goddard i really beleive Hayes will get up. will prob drop a $5 on a Watson/Thompson/NDS multi.
 
why are champion data's brownlow count so different to all of ours?

Its statistically based..

Champion doesnt take into account who wins a game for starters..

Brownlow is 'fairest and best' , do you think Champion works a 'fairness' rating into their stats?
 
Im risking Montagna/Goddard i really beleive Hayes will get up. will prob drop a $5 on a Watson/Thompson/NDS multi.

Sweet man. Yeah, I've put enough into NDS/Thompson to cover my outlay if he jags it too. Did the same again with Winderlich/Brown, Rischitelli/Watson & Rischitelli/Winderlich.

Fingers crossed for Goddard.
 
Guys - we just have to be smart about it.

For example - you are keen on the Thompson/Brown/Watson/Hodge Multi @ 4.25. Now, you also think Boomer is a very very good chance and want to put him in the multi too, but are a bit worried about Swallow. Instead of chucking your $50 on the 4 legged multi (win 212.5o), think about doing something like this instead:

$48 on Thompson/Brown/Watson/Hodge/Harvey @ $5.95 (win 285.60)
$3 on Thompson/Brown/Watson/Hodge/Swallow @ $17.00 (win 51.00)

Boomer gets up, you win an extra 60 bucks. Swallow gets up, you have lost nothing. Do this 5-10 times and you will be looking quite good.

Of course the risk is that one of Thompson, Brown, Watson or Hodge don't get up.

Im not saying this is the way to go, just highlighting the type of ways you can address this.

Another similar idea might be:

$43 on Thompson/Brown/Watson/Hodge/Swan/Sandilands @ $7.02 (win $302)
$3 on Thompson/Brown/Watson/Hodge/Swan/Barlow @ $16.30 (win $49)
$3 on Thompson/Brown/Watson/Hodge/Pendlebury @ $19.13 (win $58)

Same 4 legged multi as mentioned above, but again just chucking a couple of others in there to increase the return whilst also covering your ass.
Dont cry when Watson doesnt poll!!!
 
Its statistically based..

Champion doesnt take into account who wins a game for starters..

Brownlow is 'fairest and best' , do you think Champion works a 'fairness' rating into their stats?

There scoring system actaully does take into account who wins the game, but I'm not going to sit here and explain the whole system. The fairness point you raised is the issue though, as well as past history and polling.
 

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Whos the weakest link of the Thompson Watson Brown?

Im not as confident of these anchors compared to last years.
 
Dont cry when Watson doesnt poll!!!
Read this thread - we have gone over essendon 20 times, and Id reckon 18 of those people had Watson leading. Whats your count for essendon then?


As for CD's count - Im not sure, but don't they just assign 3-2-1 to the top 3 supercoach/ranking scores for each game? Not sure, but it might show why players like Lake/Frawley are so much higher in the odds than many have them in their counts.
 
Whos the weakest link of the Thompson Watson Brown?

Im not as confident of these anchors compared to last years.

i think they all have some doubt.. its betting nothing is 100%

id say Thompson is the clear lock out of them.
i honestly cant split Brown and Watson, if i had to choose id say Watson is safer
but i think you would find as many thinking Brown is safer than Watson.

by putting a bit on say
Watson + Riska
Winders + brown

winders +riska
you can cover this and get your money back due to a major upset occuring
 
Sorry guys quick question with joining tab online, after i get to step 2 of 3 and i click "next step" it pops up with verified by visa and won't let me continue. Any thoughts? Cheers.
 
i think he can draw it, not win it outright

Meaning $13s which would be sensational, I just put a $10 on NicNat Sylvia multi @$104, just need Priddis not to poll aswell in some games as I would imagine NicNat to poll when he played well being the player he is
 
Sorry guys quick question with joining tab online, after i get to step 2 of 3 and i click "next step" it pops up with verified by visa and won't let me continue. Any thoughts? Cheers.
Did the same for me. Check your email - there should be one with activation instructions, membership number, etc. I only got to step 2 but then once I logged everything was fine and raring to go.
 
Did the same for me. Check your email - there should be one with activation instructions, membership number, etc. I only got to step 2 but then once I logged everything was fine and raring to go.

Yeah i tried that, nothing there.

banana_bus said:
I get the same. Went to the TAB and did mine on the machines instead. Took me ages.

Yeah maybe i'll just have to give that a go. Cheers.
 
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