Compare our posts Twarby - I at least thought about mine and formulated an opinion and you just respond with that. FWIW yeah, I have Mitchell on 15. Had him on 11 last year and he polled 13, you work it out.
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Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 3)
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StringyDog
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In the count I have kept I have Dogs as Cooney 13, Boyd 12, Griffen 11, Giansiracusa 10 so in multi matrix have included a few with Dogs other player @15. Griffen is the one that I could see outpolling Cooney and Boyd.
I don't mind a couple of groups:
In and Under: Watson @ 3 to beat Kane, Priddis, Black and Tuck. Black is the only worry there.
Gamebreakers: Judd @ 2.2 to beat Hayes, Selwood, Montagna and Swallow.
It's probably been mentioned somewhere, but was wondering if (with TAB) you can multi up a Group winner (eg. Hayes to win Group 2) into Selwood to def Harvey H2H..?
Cheers
As long as they don't conflict with each other, it'll work.
So, unless Selwood or Harvey is in the Hayes group, it works fine.
Dunn - Well Done
Cancelled
- Banned
- #731
I also thought that if any player from those teams were in the groups than there would be conflict. Any kangaroo or Geelong players in group 2 will cause conflict is my understanding, but i might be wrong. Does anyone know about this?
superbadass
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Probably a stupid question and the answer is probably really simple but on VicTab where can u view your pending bets??
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This is correct, No North or Geelong player can be in the group.
Dunn - Well Done
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- #734
- Jun 14, 2010
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I reckon Goddard will poll very, very well.
I have him on 24 votes...with Hayes on 15.
I can see Montagna challenging too.
$3.00 for Goddard to top Group 2 is good value
Goddard $3.00 (Mid 20's)
Sandilands $3.00 (15-16)
Harvey $4.50 (12-13)
Hayes $5.00 (14-15)
Goodes $5.50 (Will poll around 14-15)
Goddard will romp it in IMO. He is also paying $1.75 to beat Judd..
I honestly can't see Judd polling more than BJ so I'm on.
I have him on 24 votes...with Hayes on 15.
I can see Montagna challenging too.
$3.00 for Goddard to top Group 2 is good value
Goddard $3.00 (Mid 20's)
Sandilands $3.00 (15-16)
Harvey $4.50 (12-13)
Hayes $5.00 (14-15)
Goodes $5.50 (Will poll around 14-15)
Goddard will romp it in IMO. He is also paying $1.75 to beat Judd..
I honestly can't see Judd polling more than BJ so I'm on.
This post may have merrit if Goddard didn't threaten to kill the umpires every time they gave a decision against him.I reckon Goddard will poll very, very well.
I have him on 24 votes...with Hayes on 15.
I can see Montagna challenging too.
$3.00 for Goddard to top Group 2 is good value
Goddard $3.00 (Mid 20's)
Sandilands $3.00 (15-16)
Harvey $4.50 (12-13)
Hayes $5.00 (14-15)
Goodes $5.50 (Will poll around 14-15)
Goddard will romp it in IMO. He is also paying $1.75 to beat Judd..
I honestly can't see Judd polling more than BJ so I'm on.
I've also invested heavily in the Judd - Goddard H2H market
- Jun 14, 2010
- 16,008
- 12,318
- AFL Club
- St Kilda
- Other Teams
- Denver, Liverpool
Goddard:
2 Votes - Round 2 vs North (3 to Riewoldt, although chance for 3)
2 Votes - Round 4 vs Freo
1 Vote - Round 7 vs Carlton (Possible)
1 Vote - Round 9 vs West Coast (Possible 2)
1 Vote - Round 10 vs Adelaide
3 Votes - Round 11 vs Richmond (Milne could snatch the 3)
3 Votes - Round 12 vs Fremantle
1 Vote - Round 14 vs Melbourne
1 Vote - Round 18 vs Essendon (Possible no votes)
1 Vote - Round 19 vs Port (Possible 2)
3 Votes - Round 20 vs North (Riewoldt could snatch 3 with 19 touches & 7 goals)
1 Vote - Round 21 vs Richmond
1 Vote - Round 22 vs Adelaide
= 21 there with possibly polling higher in some games
2 Votes - Round 2 vs North (3 to Riewoldt, although chance for 3)
2 Votes - Round 4 vs Freo
1 Vote - Round 7 vs Carlton (Possible)
1 Vote - Round 9 vs West Coast (Possible 2)
1 Vote - Round 10 vs Adelaide
3 Votes - Round 11 vs Richmond (Milne could snatch the 3)
3 Votes - Round 12 vs Fremantle
1 Vote - Round 14 vs Melbourne
1 Vote - Round 18 vs Essendon (Possible no votes)
1 Vote - Round 19 vs Port (Possible 2)
3 Votes - Round 20 vs North (Riewoldt could snatch 3 with 19 touches & 7 goals)
1 Vote - Round 21 vs Richmond
1 Vote - Round 22 vs Adelaide
= 21 there with possibly polling higher in some games
footyshorts
Debutant
Will not poll in rd 7 or 22 and won't get the 3 in rd 20 and 50-50 rd 12, but its pretty accurate. solid breakdown
Dunn - Well Done
Cancelled
- Banned
- #741
I really hope that is not the case for the entire board and for myself. Ive loaded up on Hayes and think hes a pretty sure thing, but Goddard is a true gun and had a very very good year. But as it has been mentioned if you have a go at the umpires and are constantly talking back to umpires, its been proven over some time that you will not poll.
Round 12 will be interesting. Clearly the best player on the ground. But gave the umpires a few massive sprays and late in the game aswell IIRC. Also finished a bit slower in that game. He could/should get the 3 but he could also not poll at all.
Round 4 is another interesting game against fremantle aswell. 5 standout performers in NDS, Milne, Goddard, Pavlich, Sandilands. Because the game was relatively close i expect a fremantle player to poll somewhere. So one of those saints will miss out, most likely Milne, but you never know.
Round 12 will be interesting. Clearly the best player on the ground. But gave the umpires a few massive sprays and late in the game aswell IIRC. Also finished a bit slower in that game. He could/should get the 3 but he could also not poll at all.
Round 4 is another interesting game against fremantle aswell. 5 standout performers in NDS, Milne, Goddard, Pavlich, Sandilands. Because the game was relatively close i expect a fremantle player to poll somewhere. So one of those saints will miss out, most likely Milne, but you never know.
It seems like every time Goddard could maybe get 1, you've given it to him. That isn't going to happen, there are definitely going to be matches were he COULD poll but doesn't. Especially considering how he talks to the umpires. When its a toss up between him and another player they will most likely look unfavourably upon him.
I think he had a phenomenal season but 15-16 votes is more accurately what he is looking at polling.
With my bets all but sewn up, I may as well share the lot, since I don't have that many:
1. Pendlebury (single) - $15 @ 6
2. Judd/Geelong - $10 @ 34
3. Thompson (single) - $10 @ 14
4. Hayes/Geelong - $10 @ 73.5
5. Judd/Geelong - $10 @ 73.5
6. Pendlebury/Geelong - $10 @ 73.5
7. Judd/Geelong - $20 @ 45
8. Pendlebury/Collingwood - $10 @ 48.45
9. Selwood/Geelong - $10 @ 63
10. Boyd/Boak/Watson/Thompson/Sylvia - $10 @ 249.48
11. Hayes/Boak/Watson/Brown/Thompson - $10 @ 60.98
12. Brown/Boyd/Hayes/Boak/Watson/Green/Thompson - $20 @ 828.63
13. Boyd/Hayes/Boak/Sylvia/Watson/Brown/Thompson - $10 @ 662.9
14. Jack/Riewoldt/Watson/Brown/Thompson - $10 @ 114.91
15. Ablett/Judd quinella - $10 @ 26
16. Watson/Bartel(grp)/Dal Santo(grp)/Jack(grp)/Judd(h2h)/Riewoldt - $10 @ 477.3
17. Watson/Bartel(grp)/Dal Santo(grp)/Chapman(grp)/Judd(h2h)/Riewoldt - $10 @ 477.3
18. Ablett/Judd quinella - $10 @ 34
19. Riewoldt/Boak/Watson/Hayes(grp)/Chapman(grp)/Dal Santo(grp)/Swallow(grp) - $20 @ 4640.45
20. Thompson/Brown/Riewoldt/Watson/Dal Santo/Selwood(h2h) - $10 @ 161.7
21. Judd(h2h)/Hayes(h2h)/Riewoldt/Watson/Brown/Thompson/Boak/Green/Chapman(grp) - $10 @ 516.4
22. Judd(h2h)/Hayes(h2h)/Riewoldt/Watson/Brown/Thompson/Boak/Sylvia/Chapman(grp) - $10 @ 688.53
23. Judd(h2h)/Hayes(h2h)/Riewoldt/Watson/Brown/Thompson/Boak/Green/Jack(grp) - $10 @ 516.4
24. Judd(h2h)/Hayes(h2h)/Riewoldt/Watson/Brown/Thompson/Boak/Sylvia/Jack(grp) - $10 @ 688.53
25. Boak/Jack/Pendlebury/Thompson/Watson/Green - $10 @ 922.79
TOTAL OUTLAY: $285.
Obviously I'm going in unprotected, but I really wasn't prepared enough this year. Next year, I will be ready. If I'm not in Aruba.
1. Pendlebury (single) - $15 @ 6
2. Judd/Geelong - $10 @ 34
3. Thompson (single) - $10 @ 14
4. Hayes/Geelong - $10 @ 73.5
5. Judd/Geelong - $10 @ 73.5
6. Pendlebury/Geelong - $10 @ 73.5
7. Judd/Geelong - $20 @ 45
8. Pendlebury/Collingwood - $10 @ 48.45
9. Selwood/Geelong - $10 @ 63
10. Boyd/Boak/Watson/Thompson/Sylvia - $10 @ 249.48
11. Hayes/Boak/Watson/Brown/Thompson - $10 @ 60.98
12. Brown/Boyd/Hayes/Boak/Watson/Green/Thompson - $20 @ 828.63
13. Boyd/Hayes/Boak/Sylvia/Watson/Brown/Thompson - $10 @ 662.9
14. Jack/Riewoldt/Watson/Brown/Thompson - $10 @ 114.91
15. Ablett/Judd quinella - $10 @ 26
16. Watson/Bartel(grp)/Dal Santo(grp)/Jack(grp)/Judd(h2h)/Riewoldt - $10 @ 477.3
17. Watson/Bartel(grp)/Dal Santo(grp)/Chapman(grp)/Judd(h2h)/Riewoldt - $10 @ 477.3
18. Ablett/Judd quinella - $10 @ 34
19. Riewoldt/Boak/Watson/Hayes(grp)/Chapman(grp)/Dal Santo(grp)/Swallow(grp) - $20 @ 4640.45
20. Thompson/Brown/Riewoldt/Watson/Dal Santo/Selwood(h2h) - $10 @ 161.7
21. Judd(h2h)/Hayes(h2h)/Riewoldt/Watson/Brown/Thompson/Boak/Green/Chapman(grp) - $10 @ 516.4
22. Judd(h2h)/Hayes(h2h)/Riewoldt/Watson/Brown/Thompson/Boak/Sylvia/Chapman(grp) - $10 @ 688.53
23. Judd(h2h)/Hayes(h2h)/Riewoldt/Watson/Brown/Thompson/Boak/Green/Jack(grp) - $10 @ 516.4
24. Judd(h2h)/Hayes(h2h)/Riewoldt/Watson/Brown/Thompson/Boak/Sylvia/Jack(grp) - $10 @ 688.53
25. Boak/Jack/Pendlebury/Thompson/Watson/Green - $10 @ 922.79
TOTAL OUTLAY: $285.
Obviously I'm going in unprotected, but I really wasn't prepared enough this year. Next year, I will be ready. If I'm not in Aruba.
I did some analysis of the West Coast Eagles players potential Brownlow vote totals:
http://www.wceblog.com/2010/09/2010-brownlow-medal-preview.html
Priddis is most likely to lead as most would expect (potential to poll in 6 games - 3 wins and 1 narrow 5pt loss) - I've got him down for 7 votes.
Only others I'd give a chance:
Naitanui - not a bad roughie with some eye catching games early in the season - only potential to poll in 3 games, but 2 were wins and 1 was a 3pt loss - I've got him down for 6 votes.
LeCras - potential to poll in 5 games (2 of which were wins) - I've got him down for 4 votes.
Cox - potential to poll in 5 games (3 of which were wins, 1 was a 1pt loss) - I've got him down for 2 votes (history also suggests he isn't a particularly strong poller).
http://www.wceblog.com/2010/09/2010-brownlow-medal-preview.html
Priddis is most likely to lead as most would expect (potential to poll in 6 games - 3 wins and 1 narrow 5pt loss) - I've got him down for 7 votes.
Only others I'd give a chance:
Naitanui - not a bad roughie with some eye catching games early in the season - only potential to poll in 3 games, but 2 were wins and 1 was a 3pt loss - I've got him down for 6 votes.
LeCras - potential to poll in 5 games (2 of which were wins) - I've got him down for 4 votes.
Cox - potential to poll in 5 games (3 of which were wins, 1 was a 1pt loss) - I've got him down for 2 votes (history also suggests he isn't a particularly strong poller).
Yep I really can't see Hayes losing, I have him on 21 with Goddard and Montagna both on 16. I've loaded up on him as well.
Hayes has had a very very good year along with Goddard, and has a history of polling well which is vital in my calculations. I think Hayes will have quite a few 2-3 matches whilst Goddard, according to my calculations, will chip in with a lot of minor votes...
Also anyone know if the TAB have signup incentives or anything like that? I'm about to make an account and deposit some hard-earned!
Nope, don't even give you a free bet.
Good to see you online Jobe.
I'm really relying on you in 8 days time.
Please don't let me down.
PS: Say hi to your dad for me.
Judd to beat Goddard into Hayes to beat Goodes @ $3.40, really like the look of that
Its probably the smart thing to do but its too tempting to put another 6 legs in and make it 100-1
maxlad
Team Captain
Its probably the smart thing to do but its too tempting to put another 6 legs in and make it 100-1
yes im totally with you on that haha
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