Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 3)

[Rippo]

you can! its 13-1

 

[breeza9]

Hey guys

Ive had some bets on the Brownlow in the past but never made any cash. This year Im looking to multi together some of the team votes with H2H and group votes and have been reading here for some much needed tips. Went into my local TAB player in WA yesty and put 3 legs of most team votes (Thompson, Watson and Judd) as a trial and it got knocked back. Then reading TAB ozbet online says these are "Singles Only" bets. What is my best way to go about placing some bets. Im wary of online betting accounts due to past experiences haha.

Thanks heaps guys for any help you can give me. Its much appreciated

 

[maxlad]

Hey guys

Ive had some bets on the Brownlow in the past but never made any cash. This year Im looking to multi together some of the team votes with H2H and group votes and have been reading here for some much needed tips. Went into my local TAB player in WA yesty and put 3 legs of most team votes (Thompson, Watson and Judd) as a trial and it got knocked back. Then reading TAB ozbet online says these are "Singles Only" bets. What is my best way to go about placing some bets. Im wary of online betting accounts due to past experiences haha.

Thanks heaps guys for any help you can give me. Its much appreciated

tabsportsbet or luxbet there the only ones allowing multis

 

[Tigertriumph]

Is everyone here pretty confident that melbourne is a 2 horse race btwn sylvia and green? For example if your looking to put together a relatively solid 6 leg multi with some H2Hs (probably just the Judd and Hayes H2Hs), team votes(Thomo/Watson/Riewoldt/Brown) and maybe a group leg would it be safer to include sylvia/green(Teams) or chapman/jack(Group 3)[noting franklins ability to poll for his game breaking capabilities] to add some value noting that overall they are of comparable value(both around the $3 mark). Personally, most people seem to be discounting McDonald for the dees but ive got him breathing right down Greens neck(mcdonalds had a great season overall and as captain I think he has good polling potential especially this year).

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Is everyone here pretty confident that melbourne is a 2 horse race btwn sylvia and green? For example if your looking to put together a relatively solid 6 leg multi with some H2Hs (probably just the Judd and Hayes H2Hs), team votes(Thomo/Watson/Riewoldt/Brown) and maybe a group leg would it be safer to include sylvia/green(Teams) or chapman/jack(Group 3)[noting franklins ability to poll for his game breaking capabilities] to add some value noting that overall they are of comparable value(both around the $3 mark). Personally, most people seem to be discounting McDonald for the dees but ive got him breathing right down Greens neck(mcdonalds had a great season overall and as captain I think he has good polling potential especially this year).

I like what youve come up with, im currently looking at betting on this aswell.

Mcdonald is the only worry to Sylvia/Green. The more i think about the more worried i get. A player umps would like to give votes to, captain and doesnt seem to talk back.

I think one of Jack or Chappy are pretty sure things. Which one i dont know. I reckon Chappy will poll better than last year with a better season, maybe around 15. But than again umpires hate him big time. Definitly include both in multis for cover. Franklin i doubt is much of a chance. 13+ votes will win this group and i dont think Franklin has that in him.

I like your H2H's aswell and also add in J.Selwood aswell. However i dont think you can do Hayes to beat Goodes and also use group 3 in the same multi. Pretty sure you cant.

Ive been thinking about Riewoldt for some time, as i was thinking he might not poll because he can go off at the umpires from what ive seen as can Deledio and him being down back means he might get more upset, so i think Riewoldt should win.

Currently thinking of

Anchors (Thompson, Watson, Riewoldt, Brown)
Green/Sylvia and maybe / mcdonald
Chappy/jack
Some with Hayes and some without to win saint votes

 

[DT_35]

I think one of Jack or Chappy are pretty sure things. Which one i dont know. I reckon Chappy will poll better than last year with a better season, maybe around 15. But than again umpires hate him big time. Definitly include both in multis for cover. Franklin i doubt is much of a chance. 13+ votes will win this group and i dont think Franklin has that in him.

I too think either Chappy or Jack will win it. Franklin will only Poll 9/10. Jack will defiantly finish on over 9, had him finishing on 13. I haven't done a breakdown of Chappys' season yet but I reckon he will cover that for sure.

 

[DT_35]

Scratch that...I reckon Chappy will smash that group..

Ablett to lead at Round 11 @ $2.25, get on!
Also, $51 for unlisted player (Chapman) is worth a tenner!

 

[Tigertriumph]

I'm just wondering what people think of these bets in relation with only the Group bets

For group one i have Swan to beat Ablett, Hodge, Judd and Pendles (i'm worried Abletts big start to the season will give him a good headstart)

Group two i have Goddard to beat Sandi, Harvey, Hayes and Goodes (only concerned with Hayes as Goddard talks back to the refs, i might do a cover bet with him)

Group three ive got Chappy to easily beat Franklin, Jack, Bolton and Rioli

Group four involves Brown to beat Hall, Mitchell, Dal Santo and Pavlich (concerned with Dal Santo cause he tends to poll well in brownlow)

Group 5, Scott Thompson to beat Barlow, Bartel, Boyd, Swallow (simple because the others may lose votes to other players in their teams, though still concerend with Barlow and Bartel)

 

[DT_35]

I'm just wondering what people think of these bets in relation with only the Group bets

For group one i have Swan to beat Ablett, Hodge, Judd and Pendles (i'm worried Abletts big start to the season will give him a good headstart)

Group two i have Goddard to beat Sandi, Harvey, Hayes and Goodes (only concerned with Hayes as Goddard talks back to the refs, i might do a cover bet with him)

Group three ive got Chappy to easily beat Franklin, Jack, Bolton and Rioli

Group four involves Brown to beat Hall, Mitchell, Dal Santo and Pavlich (concerned with Dal Santo cause he tends to poll well in brownlow)

Group 5, Scott Thompson to beat Barlow, Bartel, Boyd, Swallow (simple because the others may lose votes to other players in their teams, though still concerend with Barlow and Bartel)

Not touching Group 1 ...I give Ablett every chance to take home Charlie.

Group 2 I have Goddard winning as well. With a bit on Hayes as well.

Group 3, Chappy will win easy..$3.50 get on it

Group 4 I've on Dal Santo, with a bit on Brown as well...the winner will come from either of those 2. They will both poll around 12/13. Hall won't poll many, Pavlich will get around 10 and Mitchell won't get many at all.

Group 5 I haven't had a look at, will probably stay away as it's a bit of a raffle.

 

[Frankie23]

Wow, put all my bets on, and I'm bloody nervous. Have 65 multi's all up.

I've used Thompson/Brown/Watson in 62/65, so my life is dependent on these 3 getting up. I've really flogged Hayes (with cover from Goddard) and Travis Boak (with cover from Cassisi). These two are the money men, really need them to pull through as they are in many combo's.

There are a few 'two-horse' races in my opinion, Goodes/Jack, Riewoldt/Deledio, Sandi/Barlow, Cooney/Boyd and I've covered all those bases.

My value selections are Sylvia/Green (i've attached these two to a lot of multi's to add value), Pendlebury and Swallow. IF the latter two get up, I'm laughing (I need a new car )

Anyway I'm already nervous, I'm glad it's out of the way. Good luck to all!

 

[DT_35]

http://thefinalsiren.com/2010/09/14/if-i-were-a-betting-man-brownlow-special/

 

[DT_35]

Wow, put all my bets on, and I'm bloody nervous. Have 65 multi's all up.

I've used Thompson/Brown/Watson in 62/65, so my life is dependent on these 3 getting up. I've really flogged Hayes (with cover from Goddard) and Travis Boak (with cover from Cassisi). These two are the money men, really need them to pull through as they are in many combo's.

There are a few 'two-horse' races in my opinion, Goodes/Jack, Riewoldt/Deledio, Sandi/Barlow, Cooney/Boyd and I've covered all those bases.

My value selections are Sylvia/Green (i've attached these two to a lot of multi's to add value), Pendlebury and Swallow. IF the latter two get up, I'm laughing (I need a new car )

Anyway I'm already nervous, I'm glad it's out of the way. Good luck to all!

Good stuff mate, did you use TAB?

Did you get on any of the Group Votes?

 

[Frankie23]

Good stuff mate, did you use TAB?

Did you get on any of the Group Votes?

Yep used the TAB.

I only did a few group multis, may put on a few more as there is a lot of value. I used Dal Santo from group 4, Judd H2H and Pendlebury H2H in a few.

Jack(G3)/Dal Santo(G4)/Judd(H2H)/Pendlebury(H2H) @77 is my value pick, I also swaped Chapman with Jack to hedge my bets...

 

[DT_35]

I like Pendles at $2.00 vs. Hodge, he doesn't poll well at all and Pendles had a great year.

I just ventured down to the TAB, I was told I couldn't put the following bet on (from people here on Bigfooty because of the 'clash') but It let me at TAB

Brown Group 4 Winner into Ablett Geelong Most Votes into Hayes def Goodes

Thought it may not let me because of Dal Santo being in the group with Brown and then Hayes being in the bet to but to my surprise it let me

 

[BlackAndWhiteBlood]

65 seems like par for the course considering the banter on this board Frankie. I've gone in a slightly different direction with only 30% of the pool on multi's so far, with a big bet on Dal Santo vs Mundy H2H - I'd be very surprised if that didn't get up (NDS has polled 81 votes in 168 games vs Mundy ZERO votes in 108).

What do people think of leader at round 11?

Ablett's probably got it sewn up but he's way too short to back at low 2's. I threw a tenner on Hodge at $6.50 and a few bucks at Chapman $67 and Montagna $150. Interestingly not all the betting agencies allow you to bet on Chappy as he's ineligible.

 

[DT_35]

What do people think of leader at round 11?

Ablett's probably got it sewn up but he's way too short to back at low 2's. I threw a tenner on Hodge at $6.50 and a few bucks at Chapman $67 and Montagna $150. Interestingly not all the betting agencies allow you to bet on Chappy as he's ineligible.

Ablett is certain IMHO. Can see him polling 20+ in the first 11 games..he was destroying every team he played with 35+ touches and a few goals a game.

I'll be taking the $2.25 and chucking a bit on that. Hodge will get about 15 or so votes. I do like Chappy tho just as a hedge, he plays very very well in the 1st 11, you'd have to take the 'other player' option @ $51 as they don't have him in the market.

but like I said, Ablett to get it easy

 

[BlackAndWhiteBlood]

Yep won't argue with you there - Ablett started (and finished) really well - pretty much guaranteed 2 or 3 votes in each of rounds 3,4,5 and 7 so is a deserved favourite.

Careful what you're betting on with "other player" as Sportsbet, Betfair and TAB don't include ineligible players. You'll need to hit up Centrebet or Betchoice if you want some shiny bald head chapstick action.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Yep won't argue with you there - Ablett started (and finished) really well - pretty much guaranteed 2 or 3 votes in each of rounds 3,4,5 and 7 so is a deserved favourite.

Careful what you're betting on with "other player" as Sportsbet, Betfair and TAB don't include ineligible players. You'll need to hit up Centrebet or Betchoice if you want some shiny bald head chapstick action.

"Any other player not listed" means any player not listed like Chapman can win it. I dont understand what you mean by "ineligible players", No such thing unless your betting on who will win it and ineligble players are removed.

 

[BlackAndWhiteBlood]

I could be wrong but I think it says suspended players are ineligible for leader at rd 11.

 

[StringyDog]

Ablett is certain IMHO. Can see him polling 20+ in the first 11 games..he was destroying every team he played with 35+ touches and a few goals a game.

I'll be taking the $2.25 and chucking a bit on that. Hodge will get about 15 or so votes. I do like Chappy tho just as a hedge, he plays very very well in the 1st 11, you'd have to take the 'other player' option @ $51 as they don't have him in the market.

but like I said, Ablett to get it easy

Ablett is rightfully favourite and will probably lead but you are highly overestimating the midyear totals if you think Ablett will be on 20+ and hodge on 15 with hawks winning just 1 of first 7 games.

 

[KENT2008]

does the tab allow boxed trifecta for this?

 

[s1bbald]

TAB has trifectas, but only of combinations of their choice, and IIRC, there is no 'Any other combination' combination. None of the trifectas have Judd in it, so I didn't touch them.

 

[Damarus]

The TAB trifectas are group trifectas - ie it only takes into account the order of the players listed in the group. No other players are relevant to that bet.

 

[The BRICKSTER]

I like Barlow to lead after round 11. Do you guys give him any chance?

 

[DT_35]

I like Barlow to lead after round 11. Do you guys give him any chance?

Nup...Im about 95% confident Ablett will get it