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They have a satellite capable of viewing houses in Aruba?The TAB is watching BK's new house
Just starting to have a think about next year and use a bit of the off season to do some research and came up with a stat that is interesting in regard to 2010 (although we all already know it) but also might provide some good insight into 2011.
We know the umpires love Judd but I got to thinking just how much they love him.
Out of the top 500 vote getters of all time:
Judd has averaged 0.88 votes per game. (only two players with a better average in the top 500 vote getters, Haydn Bunton and Graham Moss)
The 2nd best average amongst current players is Selwood at 0.71 votes per game. With the likelihood of your votes per game average increasing as you hit your prime / become more known / attain leadership qualifications he is statistically a great chance to continue to poll well.
Selwood already averages higher than established stars and known vote getters such as Black, Harvey, Goodes, Ablett, Hayes, Brown, Pavlich, Mitchell, Reiwoldt, Bartel, Dan Santo and Hodge although some of them may have reducing averages due to having passed the peak of their careers.
The other interesting one is Swan who at 0.57 is still below what some of his performances potentially deserve, but is nevertheless attracting some serious attention.
Just bored at work and felt like some Brownlow chat....
Wow.
This thread is phenomenal. I honestly thought that the Brownlow was a lottery and that the favourites rarely won. I can't fathom how many people here have absolutely cleaned up... I did not have a single cent of my bankroll on the Brownlow this year, only a Centrebet freebet which I put on Swan back when he was around $3 (and even then, only because it was a stipulation of the freebet that I put it on the Brownlow)!
I understand completely if this thread is taken to a private forum next year, in fact it's probably the smart move, but FWIW I will aim to contribute to whatever remains of the thread here on the stats board in whatever way I can.
Congrats again to those who've had such an unbridled success due to dedicated research this year.
Start your engines - betting is open at sportsbet for 2011. But don't get too excited, it's one of the tightest markets you'll ever see...
Marc Murphy with a full preseason behind him is value at 51s i think.
Umpires may be conscious of how much backlash they copped over Judd polling 30 last year (although it hasn't stopped them giving questionable votes to Goodes all these years). But the big one is that if Judd gets injured, Murphy will be close to the sole proven poller left at Carlton given Gibbs move to the half back flank. Worth a flutter i say.
I'd be wary of backing Murphy on the premise that Gibbs will play back flank.... I think you'll find him back in the midfield a whole lot more and in my opinion a more likely Brownlow candidate than Murphy during his career.
Pendlebury will improve again this year and the umps love him..
They may not even have the multi-ing next year anyway so if you are only putting small, fun bets on as Forthwrite says then I don't see the problem.With all the knowledge on here regarding the value in betting on team leader multis etc right before the event why would you consider laying any bets now? Boggles the mind. Then again, I'm not a gambler but I gladly took 40k from the TAB when they 'offered' it this year.
Why not put the money away and bring it out when you know you have a significant advantage over the bookies..
With all the knowledge on here regarding the value in betting on team leader multis etc right before the event why would you consider laying any bets now? Boggles the mind. Then again, I'm not a gambler but I gladly took 40k from the TAB when they 'offered' it this year.
Why not put the money away and bring it out when you know you have a significant advantage over the bookies..
It's fun to lay bets early on in the year. You're obviously not going to put the bulk of your money on until closer to the event but I'd say a lot of people will be betting throughout the year.
I'll probably put some money on outright winners before the season starts and then medal winner/premiership doubles during the middle of the season.
I know a Richmond supporter who had money on Riewoldt for the Coleman before the season started last year when he was paying 300-1 or something ridiculous like that.
Fair point but I know some people on here had some of their biggest wins on the Winner/Premiers doubles.
That's because Goodes' wins didn't receive much criticism. In 03 he was lucky polling votes in two rounds from memory but the fact that he shared it with Buckley and Roo seemed to take the focus off him. 06 he was deserving and there was no backlash. Maybe Judd not winning was a surprise but it would have been the equivalent of Ablett winning ahead of Swan this year, which wouldn't have been an issue.Umpires may be conscious of how much backlash they copped over Judd polling 30 last year (although it hasn't stopped them giving questionable votes to Goodes all these years). But the big one is that if Judd gets injured, Murphy will be close to the sole proven poller left at Carlton given Gibbs move to the half back flank. Worth a flutter i say.
Marc Murphy with a full preseason behind him is value at 51s i think.
Umpires may be conscious of how much backlash they copped over Judd polling 30 last year (although it hasn't stopped them giving questionable votes to Goodes all these years). But the big one is that if Judd gets injured, Murphy will be close to the sole proven poller left at Carlton given Gibbs move to the half back flank. Worth a flutter i say.
That's because Goodes' wins didn't receive much criticism. In 03 he was lucky polling votes in two rounds from memory but the fact that he shared it with Buckley and Roo seemed to take the focus off him. 06 he was deserving and there was no backlash. Maybe Judd not winning was a surprise but it would have been the equivalent of Ablett winning ahead of Swan this year, which wouldn't have been an issue.
The backlash for Goodes was in 08 when he got those two votes at Geelong and since then he has probably been unlucky not to get more votes in 09 and this year. So there is no doubt that the backlash plays a part imo and it will be interesting to see how Judd polls next season.
Marc Murphy with a full preseason behind him is value at 51s i think.
Umpires may be conscious of how much backlash they copped over Judd polling 30 last year (although it hasn't stopped them giving questionable votes to Goodes all these years). But the big one is that if Judd gets injured, Murphy will be close to the sole proven poller left at Carlton given Gibbs move to the half back flank. Worth a flutter i say.