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Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 3)
- Thread starter Cruiser23
- Start date
- Tagged users None
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We need one Brownlow thread with the truth.
And one Brownlow thread with 'The truth!'
And one Brownlow thread with 'The truth!'
- Jul 12, 2003
- 6,984
- 12,718
- AFL Club
- Carlton
Jan Juc I posted something similar earlier in this thread or maybe in the others.
It's kind of like people giving DT smokeys away yet in this case it's costing us $$$.
I remember Centrebet leaving Travis Boak out of the market for most votes at Port - he turned up later in the day in there at $8.50 - this was in the middle of his polling spree towards the end of the season.
Unfortunately I have major doubts as to whether they'll have it next year however there is still the option of live betting on the winner where there are arbitrage opportunities.
It's kind of like people giving DT smokeys away yet in this case it's costing us $$$.
I remember Centrebet leaving Travis Boak out of the market for most votes at Port - he turned up later in the day in there at $8.50 - this was in the middle of his polling spree towards the end of the season.
Unfortunately I have major doubts as to whether they'll have it next year however there is still the option of live betting on the winner where there are arbitrage opportunities.
Just starting to have a think about next year and use a bit of the off season to do some research and came up with a stat that is interesting in regard to 2010 (although we all already know it) but also might provide some good insight into 2011.
We know the umpires love Judd but I got to thinking just how much they love him.
Out of the top 500 vote getters of all time:
Judd has averaged 0.88 votes per game. (only two players with a better average in the top 500 vote getters, Haydn Bunton and Graham Moss)
The 2nd best average amongst current players is Selwood at 0.71 votes per game. With the likelihood of your votes per game average increasing as you hit your prime / become more known / attain leadership qualifications he is statistically a great chance to continue to poll well.
Selwood already averages higher than established stars and known vote getters such as Black, Harvey, Goodes, Ablett, Hayes, Brown, Pavlich, Mitchell, Reiwoldt, Bartel, Dan Santo and Hodge although some of them may have reducing averages due to having passed the peak of their careers.
The other interesting one is Swan who at 0.57 is still below what some of his performances potentially deserve, but is nevertheless attracting some serious attention.
Just bored at work and felt like some Brownlow chat....
We know the umpires love Judd but I got to thinking just how much they love him.
Out of the top 500 vote getters of all time:
Judd has averaged 0.88 votes per game. (only two players with a better average in the top 500 vote getters, Haydn Bunton and Graham Moss)
The 2nd best average amongst current players is Selwood at 0.71 votes per game. With the likelihood of your votes per game average increasing as you hit your prime / become more known / attain leadership qualifications he is statistically a great chance to continue to poll well.
Selwood already averages higher than established stars and known vote getters such as Black, Harvey, Goodes, Ablett, Hayes, Brown, Pavlich, Mitchell, Reiwoldt, Bartel, Dan Santo and Hodge although some of them may have reducing averages due to having passed the peak of their careers.
The other interesting one is Swan who at 0.57 is still below what some of his performances potentially deserve, but is nevertheless attracting some serious attention.
Just bored at work and felt like some Brownlow chat....
The Royal Sampler
Floreat Pica, Bitch!
Wow.
This thread is phenomenal. I honestly thought that the Brownlow was a lottery and that the favourites rarely won. I can't fathom how many people here have absolutely cleaned up... I did not have a single cent of my bankroll on the Brownlow this year, only a Centrebet freebet which I put on Swan back when he was around $3 (and even then, only because it was a stipulation of the freebet that I put it on the Brownlow)!
I understand completely if this thread is taken to a private forum next year, in fact it's probably the smart move, but FWIW I will aim to contribute to whatever remains of the thread here on the stats board in whatever way I can.
Congrats again to those who've had such an unbridled success due to dedicated research this year.
This thread is phenomenal. I honestly thought that the Brownlow was a lottery and that the favourites rarely won. I can't fathom how many people here have absolutely cleaned up... I did not have a single cent of my bankroll on the Brownlow this year, only a Centrebet freebet which I put on Swan back when he was around $3 (and even then, only because it was a stipulation of the freebet that I put it on the Brownlow)!
I understand completely if this thread is taken to a private forum next year, in fact it's probably the smart move, but FWIW I will aim to contribute to whatever remains of the thread here on the stats board in whatever way I can.
Congrats again to those who've had such an unbridled success due to dedicated research this year.
Well if Judd or Selwood play all 22/23/24 games next season or close to it then you would think they would be a good chance of polling top 5, even if performances don't warrant it.
Can't wait for next season. I only found out this thread existed after round 22 last season and I'll admit I did have a nice win with very little contribution.
Hope to be contributing throughout next season.
Bring on 2011 and the TAB
Wow.
This thread is phenomenal. I honestly thought that the Brownlow was a lottery and that the favourites rarely won. I can't fathom how many people here have absolutely cleaned up... I did not have a single cent of my bankroll on the Brownlow this year, only a Centrebet freebet which I put on Swan back when he was around $3 (and even then, only because it was a stipulation of the freebet that I put it on the Brownlow)!
I understand completely if this thread is taken to a private forum next year, in fact it's probably the smart move, but FWIW I will aim to contribute to whatever remains of the thread here on the stats board in whatever way I can.
Congrats again to those who've had such an unbridled success due to dedicated research this year.
What other event would I be able to outlay $250 and get back $17 000
- Oct 16, 2008
- 10,657
- 6,375
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
Marc Murphy with a full preseason behind him is value at 51s i think.
Umpires may be conscious of how much backlash they copped over Judd polling 30 last year (although it hasn't stopped them giving questionable votes to Goodes all these years). But the big one is that if Judd gets injured, Murphy will be close to the sole proven poller left at Carlton given Gibbs move to the half back flank. Worth a flutter i say.
I'd be wary of backing Murphy on the premise that Gibbs will play back flank.... I think you'll find him back in the midfield a whole lot more and in my opinion a more likely Brownlow candidate than Murphy during his career.
Pendlebury will improve again this year and the umps love him..
- Banned
- #1,312
With all the knowledge on here regarding the value in betting on team leader multis etc right before the event why would you consider laying any bets now? Boggles the mind. Then again, I'm not a gambler but I gladly took 40k from the TAB when they 'offered' it this year.
Why not put the money away and bring it out when you know you have a significant advantage over the bookies..
- Jul 12, 2003
- 6,984
- 12,718
- AFL Club
- Carlton
They may not even have the multi-ing next year anyway so if you are only putting small, fun bets on as Forthwrite says then I don't see the problem.
Fair point but I know some people on here had some of their biggest wins on the Winner/Premiers doubles.
I think I might do something similar. I have a few guys that I think are a good chance to win the medal next year and another couple who are good value at odds so I think I will outlay about $100 on a few players into Pies/Saints. Will do it closer to round 1 though.
Ghost of Grinter
Cancelled
- Aug 2, 2009
- 1,133
- 249
- AFL Club
- Melbourne
After a very successful 2010 brownlow, after tipping Judd at $34s,
Im confident I can snag the 2011 brownlow winner aswell.
I think Luke Hodge will poll very well now that he is captain.
Also, the Hawks will have a better year, they are perfectly placed
to consolidate a top 4 position come years end.
Hodge is going to be my main speck early, then once the dust
settles, ill decide if he is worth really laying into.
Now, with Collingwood, IMO, Thomas will get more umpire attention in 2011, possibly making it hard for Swan to poll more than he did in 2010,
because I expect Pendles will be up there, Sidebottom and Beams now
coming into the Picture and Didak coming good, I dont think Swan can
have a better year than 2010 in terms of standout matches where he should poll.
I dont think Geelong will be as strong as they were in 2010.
However, this doesnt mean that Selwood wont be polling well,
because lets not forget, Carlton didnt set the world on fire in 2010.
I think Selwood is a standout of Geelong, with Bartel aging and looking
a mere shadow of his former self, I think Selwood is in my top 2.
Ablett and Judd see out my top 4.
Hodge - My top selection, now he is captain, if stays sound, should win.
Selwood - No vote stealers, definately top 3 lock.
Judd - Gets votes for just rocking up, cant dismiss.
Ablett - If gets captaincy, will poll well, is leagues best player by so far
its not funny, just an asterisk on whether they will win enough games.
Im confident I can snag the 2011 brownlow winner aswell.
I think Luke Hodge will poll very well now that he is captain.
Also, the Hawks will have a better year, they are perfectly placed
to consolidate a top 4 position come years end.
Hodge is going to be my main speck early, then once the dust
settles, ill decide if he is worth really laying into.
Now, with Collingwood, IMO, Thomas will get more umpire attention in 2011, possibly making it hard for Swan to poll more than he did in 2010,
because I expect Pendles will be up there, Sidebottom and Beams now
coming into the Picture and Didak coming good, I dont think Swan can
have a better year than 2010 in terms of standout matches where he should poll.
I dont think Geelong will be as strong as they were in 2010.
However, this doesnt mean that Selwood wont be polling well,
because lets not forget, Carlton didnt set the world on fire in 2010.
I think Selwood is a standout of Geelong, with Bartel aging and looking
a mere shadow of his former self, I think Selwood is in my top 2.
Ablett and Judd see out my top 4.
Hodge - My top selection, now he is captain, if stays sound, should win.
Selwood - No vote stealers, definately top 3 lock.
Judd - Gets votes for just rocking up, cant dismiss.
Ablett - If gets captaincy, will poll well, is leagues best player by so far
its not funny, just an asterisk on whether they will win enough games.
That's because Goodes' wins didn't receive much criticism. In 03 he was lucky polling votes in two rounds from memory but the fact that he shared it with Buckley and Roo seemed to take the focus off him. 06 he was deserving and there was no backlash. Maybe Judd not winning was a surprise but it would have been the equivalent of Ablett winning ahead of Swan this year, which wouldn't have been an issue.
The backlash for Goodes was in 08 when he got those two votes at Geelong and since then he has probably been unlucky not to get more votes in 09 and this year. So there is no doubt that the backlash plays a part imo and it will be interesting to see how Judd polls next season.
- Apr 30, 2010
- 5,562
- 4,521
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- Brisbane Lions
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- MUFC, Golden State Warriors
I agree with the tougher votes for Judd part. The Judd being injured and Murphy cashing in bit leaves a ? for me though. How many games would Carlton win without Judd?
- Apr 30, 2010
- 5,562
- 4,521
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
- Other Teams
- MUFC, Golden State Warriors
I felt Goodes got the most focus at the time by having his votes read out last, his mum there, and being the feel good story of the night in 2003. Sharing it with Buckley and Roo meant less pressure of a Brownlow tag to his name in 2004 though.
I meant the focus off a few dodgy votes. I was surprised he won in 03 but I agree that the memory from that night is the last game where they read out his votes. Greatest count in my lifetime.
You Beauty!
Debutant
Even if you wanted to put doubles on this early you can't as they, sportsbet at least, are not allowing doubles with flag winners atm. Best to wait anyway. Players can get injured at training/preseason games etc and not worth the risk as odds shouldn't change too much til round 1.
Rippo
Debutant
my guess just for the hell of it....
Hayes
Pendlebury
Boak
Selwood
Boyd
Hayes
Pendlebury
Boak
Selwood
Boyd
Only 2 players @ value atm imo, who ill keep to myself/post on private forum.
If you could do Top 5 there would be a bunch of value in Boak/Jack/A. Swallow, none of them will win it though, Port will most likely be bottom 4, North will hoover around the 8 and like this year add to that Harvey takes a bunch of votes although getting on in age, Wells also flashy and steals votes, Yes Judd won with only 10 or 11 wins but he had no one take votes off him + Swallow while good is no Judd. Jack the only chance and very slim, goodes getting on in age and will start just not polling, Hence leaving Jack getting the majority of votes. Sydney will finish top 6 alot of votes to be had there, cant see Jack finishing 1 although a top 3/5 is a good chance.
If you could do Top 5 there would be a bunch of value in Boak/Jack/A. Swallow, none of them will win it though, Port will most likely be bottom 4, North will hoover around the 8 and like this year add to that Harvey takes a bunch of votes although getting on in age, Wells also flashy and steals votes, Yes Judd won with only 10 or 11 wins but he had no one take votes off him + Swallow while good is no Judd. Jack the only chance and very slim, goodes getting on in age and will start just not polling, Hence leaving Jack getting the majority of votes. Sydney will finish top 6 alot of votes to be had there, cant see Jack finishing 1 although a top 3/5 is a good chance.
Nothing
Brownlow Medallist
- Jul 30, 2009
- 10,336
- 17,293
- AFL Club
- Fremantle
For the odds I think:
Pendelbury looks good. If Collingwood are top again he is in with a great shot.
Judd could pole in his sleep. But probably will be a backlash (hangover curse or something)
Selwood will pick up more votes this year. If Geelong win enough then I think he can be top 3 and a chance to win
Pendelbury looks good. If Collingwood are top again he is in with a great shot.
Judd could pole in his sleep. But probably will be a backlash (hangover curse or something)
Selwood will pick up more votes this year. If Geelong win enough then I think he can be top 3 and a chance to win
and/or his close tribunal calls start going against him.
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