- Dec 21, 2005
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Are you betting according to that formula? I'm guessing if you were you wouldn't have Swan in as a lock as it is massive risk for the value.
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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 3)
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Are you betting according to that formula? I'm guessing if you were you wouldn't have Swan in as a lock as it is massive risk for the value.
- Apr 26, 2007
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Mumford has been huge in a couple of games this year. I would have him clearly ahead of any other ruckman outside Sandilands from memory..
Almost scandalous that he didn't poll in that game.
Haha no, definitely not, betting more along the lines of the forum consensus e.g. Pendles and Selwood are value, Judd/Hodge too short, Melbourne between Green and Sylvia and so on
- Dec 21, 2005
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Haha you would be spewing if it proves 100% correct!
Jamar is the other standout ruckmen this year. Not convinced it translates to votes though.
Out of interest, why aren't we more confident? I don't remember getting a lot wrong last year. Apart from Swan getting done and some unusual results at clubs too risky to touch in any big way (Richmond, Dees, Port, Hawks), the majority of our firm favourites got up and a whole heap of the value picks providing profit even with the ties. Ignoring how close they were in the end, the result proved that most of our picks got up. Vince, Brown/Black, Judd, Watson, Sandi, Hayes, Boyd, LeCras all were widely backed last year successfully.
Dunn - Well Done
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In that game IIRC he kicked all his 4 goals in the first quarter and also gather over 10 posses aswell and included plenty of marks. Shows that its better to finish games well than start them well.
- Dec 21, 2005
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I think when money is involved we are naturally and understandably a little less confident than we otherwise might be.
I think a lot are trying to keep a lid on it
I only had a small go last year on the back of some tips from this forum. This year though I have taken it more serious, participating in the thread throughout the year and have put more bets on. Hopefully we can get the same sort of success this year.
WCE92_94_06
Rookie
Do your own research because i think you'll find that wasnt me, pretty sure this is about the second post i've ever made champ so go back to your corner think about what you said and try come back with a better response.
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NDS polled 3, deserved it? think not.
Goddard should have got the 3 easy, i do recall that game.. I would have thought joey would have polled...
NDS worth a punt i reckon.
It'd be nice to see Pendles and Selwood get up but if all my locks and semi locks win I'll still be super pleased (along with most people I'd think)
Throw in Hayes and Boyd to get up in the close teams and cha-ching
- Dec 21, 2005
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I think a lot are trying to keep a lid on it
I only had a small go last year on the back of some tips from this forum. This year though I have taken it more serious, participating in the thread throughout the year and have put more bets on. Hopefully we can get the same sort of success this year.
I'm a little the same. Found this forum at about round 5-6 this year and posted votes when I could. Wasn't able to do a count but it is something I'll try and do next year. I don't want to get on and prophesie what might or might not happen as I'm pretty new to the whole system betting.
Brownlow King
Team Captain
I hear you, for me it's that now that the bets are on the doubt creeps in. Only human I suppose but I am v v confident of a big win but a massive win is a dream.
Dunn - Well Done
Cancelled
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I would say you won pretty massively last year 400-500k if i recall correctly.
Unsure of your age, but you seem like you have more money to burn than a 18-19 year old in which i am and unfortunately cant put out as much coin, but if i won 400k i would be
set for the next 10 years.
carpsi
Senior List
I think its the fact that everyone has their bets on and now its a long waiting game. I think we have too much time to think about our options after we place the bets and a bit of doubt comes in. Especially if someone feels Boak for instance will get out polled or someone feels Deledio will beat Reiwoldt.
Things like this will add a bit of doubt.
Exactly right. For me anyway, having laid down all of the multis I wanted for the 'Most Team Votes' market, I tend to read back over my research and count, and begin to overanalyse things. The problem with over-analysis is that it can cause you to undo all of your good research up until now and doubt yourself.
I suppose it's only natural to start second-guessing yourself, but I tend to be of the sentiment that if you back yourself in and trust your first instincts you'll come away better off.
Exactly right. For me anyway, having laid down all of the multis I wanted for the 'Most Team Votes' market, I tend to read back over my research and count, and begin to overanalyse things. The problem with over-analysis is that it can cause you to undo all of your good research up until now and doubt yourself.
I suppose it's only natural to start second-guessing yourself, but I tend to be of the sentiment that if you back yourself in and trust your first instincts you'll come away better off.
Exactly. Save your over-analysis for when the group votes come out.
Dunn - Well Done
Cancelled
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- #395
Can anyone remember what Green, Sylvia were priced at when very first released?
Brownlow King
Team Captain
Yep older than you, yep won big last year and yep more money to burn than you. But no, $400k doesn't make you set for 10 years, it's a healthy deposit on an expensive house though.I would say you won pretty massively last year 400-500k if i recall correctly.
Unsure of your age, but you seem like you have more money to burn than a 18-19 year old in which i am and unfortunately cant put out as much coin, but if i won 400k i would be
Remember it's all relative. You can win well on this caper even if you bet $50. The odds are so much better than any other form of betting.
Dunn - Well Done
Cancelled
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- #398
My 128 multis are complete. Put $10 on each multi = $1280 outlay
The minimum paying mutli is $22.39 = $223.9
The maximum paying multi is $1552.6 = $15526
For my anchors i have Judd (100%) - small benefit but its a certainty and ill take the extra little it gives me
Than i have 32 involving Thompson-Watson-Brown
32 involving Thompson-Watson
32 involving Thompson-Brown
32 involving Watson-Brown (SO IF 2 LOSE IM BUGGERED)
I than have Sandilands in 50% and Barlow in 50%, Sylvia and Green (50%) even though im sure Sylvia will win. Harvey/Swallow 50%
Than i have Hayes by himself in 32 multis (25%). Riewoldt 32 multis (25%), Hayes +Riewoldt 32 multis (25%) and than 32 multis with none included.
Hopefully i can walk away with some cash and hopefully than 1552 mutli wins. Only really needs Swallow to cause an upset, which i thinks unlikely.
I like my Judd, Thompson, Watson, Brown, Barlow, Sylvia Harvey, Hayes, Riewoldt one the most at $453-1 = 4530 return (at least a 3200 gain). Also means many others win.
The minimum paying mutli is $22.39 = $223.9
The maximum paying multi is $1552.6 = $15526
For my anchors i have Judd (100%) - small benefit but its a certainty and ill take the extra little it gives me
Than i have 32 involving Thompson-Watson-Brown
32 involving Thompson-Watson
32 involving Thompson-Brown
32 involving Watson-Brown (SO IF 2 LOSE IM BUGGERED)
I than have Sandilands in 50% and Barlow in 50%, Sylvia and Green (50%) even though im sure Sylvia will win. Harvey/Swallow 50%
Than i have Hayes by himself in 32 multis (25%). Riewoldt 32 multis (25%), Hayes +Riewoldt 32 multis (25%) and than 32 multis with none included.
Hopefully i can walk away with some cash and hopefully than 1552 mutli wins. Only really needs Swallow to cause an upset, which i thinks unlikely.
I like my Judd, Thompson, Watson, Brown, Barlow, Sylvia Harvey, Hayes, Riewoldt one the most at $453-1 = 4530 return (at least a 3200 gain). Also means many others win.
Cassius_Clay
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- Jul 6, 2004
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Just a few thoughts...
I love Hayes as much as anyone. Made me alot of cash last year, alot compared to what I actually bet which was only around $120 all up. Last year was incredible how well he voted. Consitently getting 3s in games you thought he might get 1-2. I can see why so many people are on him this year but I'm staying away from St.Kilda this year. For 1, he isnt good value at all. He has 2 genuine threats and NDS who is a polling machine. People say Goddard doesnt poll well and that he's a ****wit and the umpires dont like him. All true but I think its been overrated. Compared his stats this year to last and its a big difference.
$2.75 is a fair price. Nothing more.
Good thing about Goddard last year was that when he polled he got the 3 votes. This year IMO he's had alot more outstanding games. Could easily pickup 4-6 BOG's. 18 votes could win St.Kilda's.
Other thoughts. By reading on here throughout the year I got the impression that Black had no chance to beat Brown. After looking at Black's stats I disagree. He could win. This guy is a machine. People tend to look at finalsiren/fanfooty and see 'oh Black only got 80 DT points. he cant get any votes'. Well 80 DT points quite often equates to 27+ posessions with Blackie and his proven that its enough to get votes (Check out last year, 2008 and esp 2007 where he got 3 BOGs getting less than 20 disposals woah!). I think brown will win but he's no 100% sure thing.
Think Watson, Goodes, Ablett are locks for their clubs. Riewoldt massive chance and Green/Sylvia will win Melbournes for sure. ST is very short. Pendles ok value, Boak, Green and Sylvia were great value and Boyd or Cooney will def win the dogs although theres no value there.
And lastly, Ablett should clearly be the fav. Was surprised that BK took until the end of the year to realise just how good his year was. I like it better than his brownlow year. More BOG's. Yeah, the umps might not be willing to give him the votes he deserved but he still should be too good. $4 is value with Swan his only real danger.
Pendles and Goddard the wildcards with Judd and Selwood needing a miracle to get the win. Hodge will get 18 maximum.
I love Hayes as much as anyone. Made me alot of cash last year, alot compared to what I actually bet which was only around $120 all up. Last year was incredible how well he voted. Consitently getting 3s in games you thought he might get 1-2. I can see why so many people are on him this year but I'm staying away from St.Kilda this year. For 1, he isnt good value at all. He has 2 genuine threats and NDS who is a polling machine. People say Goddard doesnt poll well and that he's a ****wit and the umpires dont like him. All true but I think its been overrated. Compared his stats this year to last and its a big difference.
$2.75 is a fair price. Nothing more.
Good thing about Goddard last year was that when he polled he got the 3 votes. This year IMO he's had alot more outstanding games. Could easily pickup 4-6 BOG's. 18 votes could win St.Kilda's.
Other thoughts. By reading on here throughout the year I got the impression that Black had no chance to beat Brown. After looking at Black's stats I disagree. He could win. This guy is a machine. People tend to look at finalsiren/fanfooty and see 'oh Black only got 80 DT points. he cant get any votes'. Well 80 DT points quite often equates to 27+ posessions with Blackie and his proven that its enough to get votes (Check out last year, 2008 and esp 2007 where he got 3 BOGs getting less than 20 disposals woah!). I think brown will win but he's no 100% sure thing.
Think Watson, Goodes, Ablett are locks for their clubs. Riewoldt massive chance and Green/Sylvia will win Melbournes for sure. ST is very short. Pendles ok value, Boak, Green and Sylvia were great value and Boyd or Cooney will def win the dogs although theres no value there.
And lastly, Ablett should clearly be the fav. Was surprised that BK took until the end of the year to realise just how good his year was. I like it better than his brownlow year. More BOG's. Yeah, the umps might not be willing to give him the votes he deserved but he still should be too good. $4 is value with Swan his only real danger.
Pendles and Goddard the wildcards with Judd and Selwood needing a miracle to get the win. Hodge will get 18 maximum.
Brownlow King
Team Captain
I feel that you have given us all a good overview of players stats and voting in 2009 vs 2010. That's what us regulars on this forum look at every week. We look into it more than just stats though and watch for flashy play, players mouthing off at umpires, players who turned matches, players who kicked goals at critical moments, players who got soft touches, players with average disposal etc...
Goddard has mouthed off and disputed decisions more than any other player in the comp in 2010. There is no way in the world that he will poll like the bookies expect him to and I am pretty sure that he will flop and poll in the 0-14 bracket. I agree that NDS the danger to Hayes.
Swan isn't the flashy type as pointed out on here for a long time and his loads of possessions don't make him a Brownlow vote machine.
I treat betting on the medal winner during the year like the sharemarket and therefore chase players over the odds and at value. I feel that I got onto Pendlebury, Selwood, Judd, Hodge etc. all at their maximum prices. In relation to Ablett, I did respect him all year but it really was his 3 votes that he will get in R22 that seal the medal for him and therefore I've loaded up on the $4.50 ( and into the Saints and Pies for flag before the weekend ! ). taking $5 or $6 before R22 was clearly under the odds.
A sensible analyst has opinions all year but is open to changing them after a full season analysis at the end of R22.
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