Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

[Johanpetro]

Had a nice wager on Franklin coleman into Bartel Brownlow at $335 at the start of the year, its in $91 at the moment.... Need Jimmy to keep it up! But still think Juddy is the one to beat

 

[snomeD]

I won't go into too much detail. Heres mine so far.

Watson 7
Judd 6
Swan 5
Moloney 5
Bolton 5
Bartel 5
Fyfe 5
Goodes 5
Murphy 4
Cox 4
Boyd 4
Higgins 4

 

[weagles_fan]

What does everyone have Burgoyne on atm?

Also I tried multi betting team leaders on centrebet but it wouldn't let me????

 

[Halli]

My count is below, ive given players a range of votes, so for example where i have Jobe Watson 5-7, i predict he'll have between 5-7 votes.

• Jimmy Bartel 6
• Adam Goodes 6
• Brent Maloney 6
• Jobe Watson 5-7
• Chris Judd 4-7
• Dane Swan 4-7
• Dean Cox 4-6
• Marc Murphy 4-6
• Matthew Boyd 4-6
• Jude Bolton 3-6
• View Full Count

I locked in Adam Goodes, Jimmy Bartel and Brent Maloney for three votes this weekend as they were stellar. Jobe Watson continues to poll well, as does Dean Cox. Chris Judd is a hard one to work out though, because he is playing well, but not at his brilliant best. Then again, he doesn't need to star to get votes and is always a danger. I reckon he'll be close to 7 votes though.

I've done a review at Phantom Brownlow Medal for each player this weekend. You guys should sign up and run your own count as well.

I like having a few bets on the outright market each week and this week have had a punt on Jimmy Bartel. He is a former winner and is currently $23 which is awesome value given his form. Brent Maloney is $67 and will continue to shorten, but given the events of the past 24 hours that shakes it up a bit. Adam Goodes is $17 which is also great value.

 

[AG]

Only worry is Cox imo. For some reason he just doesn't poll well.

 

[s1bbald]

Burgoyne's an interesting one atm. I think I have him on 2, but could easily be 4-5. Centrebet haven't allowed multi's on team leaders since the Vince/Hayes/Lecras fiasco of '09. Good times, those

 

[Halli]

Burgoyne's an interesting one atm. I think I have him on 2, but could easily be 4-5. Centrebet haven't allowed multi's on team leaders since the Vince/Hayes/Lecras fiasco of '09. Good times, those

Ive got Burgoyne on between 1-3 votes. There are two games that he could of polled in vs Melbourne and Richmond. Hewont get 3 last weekend because Franklin will of got the 3, while against the Dees he could sneak in for a possible vote, but i have Suckling and Rioli taking home the 3 votes and 2 votes.

 

[half_back_flank]

On Burgoyne:

Very very slim chance in round 1, should poll 1 or 2 in round 2 and 3.

I've got him on 3, with getting the two votes on the weekend. Will stick my neck out and say he's at least on 2.

 

[blue_boys]

On Burgoyne:

Very very slim chance in round 1, should poll 1 or 2 in round 2 and 3.

I've got him on 3, with getting the two votes on the weekend. Will stick my neck out and say he's at least on 2.

Have exactly the same as you mate re Burgoyne. That round 1 game against crows anyone could get the 1 vote and he should poll 1 or 2 in rounds 2 and 3.

I've got Judd in front at the moment on 7-9 and Watson in 2nd on 6-7 (with 2 clear BOGs). Judd could very easily be on 9 votes but could possibly have dropped votes so far to the likes of Shaw and Murphy/Gibbs.

My money preseason was only on Judd and I'm quite happy with that at the moment. Only value bets that looks good at the moment would be:
- Watson: bombers should win more games then last year but a lot of the value has gone
- Bartel: proven vote getter and cats should win lots of games (still value here) plus no ablett
- Goodes: looks a stand out for Swans at the moment and we all know how well he polls (still some value with this one)

Saying all this Judd looks the one to beat for now

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

Collingwood V Carlton:
3. Jarryd Blair
2. Chris Judd
1. Heath Shaw

Western Bulldogs V Gold Coast:
3. Matthew Boyd
2. Daniel Cross
1. Gary Ablett

Adelaide V Fremantle:
3. Nathan Fyfe
2. Stephen Hill
1. Scott Thompson

West Coast V Sydney:
3. Adam Goodes
2. Jude Bolton
1. Dean Cox

Richmond V Hawthorn:
3. Shaun Burgoyne
2. Lance Franklin
1. Luke Hodge

Melbourne V Brisbane:
3. Brent Moloney
2. Luke Power
1. Tom Rockliff

Geelong V Port Adelaide:
3. Jimmy Bartel
2. James Kelly
1. Joel Selwood

St Kilda V Essendon:
3. Jobe Watson
2. Heath Hocking
1. David Zaharakis

Leaderboard:
1. Marc Murphy 6
2. Jude Bolton 6
3. Shaun Burgoyne 6
4. Jimmy Bartel 6
5. Jobe Watson 6
6. Dean Cox 5
7. Matthew Boyd 5
8. Adam Goodes 5
9. Brent Moloney 5
10. Dane Swan 4

 

[mike262]

Collingwood V Carlton:
3. Jarryd Blair
2. Chris Judd
1. Heath Shaw

Western Bulldogs V Gold Coast:
3. Matthew Boyd
2. Daniel Cross
1. Gary Ablett

Adelaide V Fremantle:
3. Nathan Fyfe
2. Stephen Hill
1. Scott Thompson

West Coast V Sydney:
3. Adam Goodes
2. Jude Bolton
1. Dean Cox

Richmond V Hawthorn:
3. Shaun Burgoyne
2. Lance Franklin
1. Luke Hodge

Melbourne V Brisbane:
3. Brent Moloney
2. Luke Power
1. Tom Rockliff

Geelong V Port Adelaide:
3. Jimmy Bartel
2. James Kelly
1. Joel Selwood

St Kilda V Essendon:
3. Jobe Watson
2. Heath Hocking
1. David Zaharakis

Leaderboard:
1. Marc Murphy 6
2. Jude Bolton 6
3. Shaun Burgoyne 6
4. Jimmy Bartel 6
5. Jobe Watson 6
6. Dean Cox 5
7. Matthew Boyd 5
8. Adam Goodes 5
9. Brent Moloney 5
10. Dane Swan 4

agree with most of ure rd 3 votes. However:

i think forwards need 2 kick 8-10 goals to get the the 3 these days. should get the 1.

Rockliff still may be a relatively unknown to umps (unsure how he polled in 2010). i think jurrah is more likely to snag the 1

I agree with most of the other votes, my order is slightly different which is t be expected.

 

[RequiemBlade]

My Leaderboard so far:
6 - Bartel
6 - Gibbs
6 - Moloney
6 - Watson
5 - Bolton
5 - Cox
5 - Goodes
with Boyd, Fyfe, Higgins, Judd, Mundy and Swan all on 4.

re: Cox, AUSSIE GUN is spot on. Cox received 3 votes in 07, 3 in 08 and 5 in 09, which were his best years (from a DT perspective). During the years when the Eagles made the grand final he received 6 and 12 votes respectively. After looking at these stats, I may have to go back and readjust some of my votes

 

[premiers06]

Cox also had to contend with Judd, cousins and an inform Kerr

 

[Dr Awkward]

It will be very difficult to ignore Cox, especially in round 1, quite clearly BOG. I have him on 6 votes at the moment, if he isn't on at least 3 the umpires just don't like him.

I just backed Watson to win Essendon at $1.80 at Centrebet. I reckon he should be about $1.08, and then factoring in the chance of injury he should be about $1.2 so massive overs imo. He has very little competition. Based on last year polls very well and I can picture him being a favourite of the umps.

 

[jefffff34]

Just converted The Age's Player of the year votes to 3-2-1's...bookmaker odds are Centrebet's...

8 - Cox ($67)
6 - Murphy ($41), Bartel ($21), Moloney ($67), Goodes ($16)
5 - Boyd ($14)
4 - Swan ($5.25), Watson ($12), Fyfe ($251), Enright ($401), Embley ($151), Griffen ($51)
3 - Black ($101), Ben Johnson ($401), Pendlebury ($13), Blair ($801), Hille ($126), Bellchambers (no price), Mundy ($151), Mitchell ($26), Rioli (suspended), Franklin ($41), Deledio ($126)

 

[mike262]

No one done votes yet??

3-swan
2-thomas
1-pendlebury

and deledio unlucky to miss out

 

[blue_boys]

Same as you mike262

3 Swan
2 Thomas
1 Pendlebury

 

[The New Breid]

3. Swan
2. Thomas
1. Deledio

Swan SHOULD be a lock for 3.

 

[danielnajdek]

3. Swan
2. Thomas
1. Deledio

Swan SHOULD be a lock for 3.

Agree with your votes mate

Swannys never guaranteed of three votes going by last year but surely should get the three from last nights performance.

 

[jefffff34]

Deledio has to get votes, but there is genuine corruption if Swan doesn't get 3.

 

[mike262]

syd v geelong

3-Johnson
2-Kennedy
1-Kelly

Mumford and Otten were both great. so Nil all draw?
Both could poll

this one was tough

 

[AG]

It was tough but I can't see Kelly getting close.

Votes should come from Woj, Chapman, Jack, Kennedy, Scarlett and the two ruckman. I'll watch the replay again but I'd go:

3. Chapman (was his usual self firing back at the umpires every decision though)
2. Jack
1. Wojcinksi

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

Richmond V Collingwood:
3. Dane Swan - has to get the 3
2. Dale Thomas
1. Brett Deledio - 33 possessions, a goal and getting Richmond back into it should get him the 1 over Pendlebury

Hawthorn V West Coast
3. Lance Franklin
2. Sam Mitchell - Quiet second half but he did enough to warrant a vote or two IMO
1. Josh Kennedy - Darling maybe an unknown to the umpires so I went for Kennedy here

Essendon V Carlton
3. Dustin Fletcher - Absolutley superb, the 60m goal and the tackle on Garlett will no doubt stand out in addition to taken saving marks in defence
2. Chris Yarran
1. Jobe Watson

Sydney V Geelong
3. Paul Chapman
2. David Wojcinski
1. Josh Kennedy

Port Adelaide v Adelaide
3. Justin Westhoff
2. Troy Chaplin
1. David Rodan - Scott Thompson could very well get the one however

Gold Coast V Melbourne
3. Brent Moloney
2. Jack Trengove
1. Colin Sylvia - Jamar a big chance here as well

Fremantle V North Melbourne
3. Matthew Pavlich
2. Nathan Fyfe
1. Hayden Ballantyne - Could be Mundy and Fyfe and Pav could be swapped

Leaderboard:
1. Brent Moloney 8
2. Dane Swan 7
3. Jobe Watson 7
4. Marc Murphy 6
5. Jude Bolton 6
6. Shaun Burgoyne 6
7. Jimmy Bartel 6
8. Nathan Fyfe 6
9. Dean Cox 5
10. Matthew Boyd 5

 

[bob7965]

Richmond V Collingwood:
3. Dane Swan - has to get the 3
2. Dale Thomas
1. Brett Deledio - 33 possessions, a goal and getting Richmond back into it should get him the 1 over Pendlebury

Hawthorn V West Coast
3. Lance Franklin
2. Sam Mitchell - Quiet second half but he did enough to warrant a vote or two IMO
1. Josh Kennedy - Darling maybe an unknown to the umpires so I went for Kennedy here

Essendon V Carlton
3. Dustin Fletcher - Absolutley superb, the 60m goal and the tackle on Garlett will no doubt stand out in addition to taken saving marks in defence
2. Chris Yarran
1. Jobe Watson

Sydney V Geelong
3. Paul Chapman
2. David Wojcinski
1. Josh Kennedy

Port Adelaide v Adelaide
3. Justin Westhoff
2. Troy Chaplin
1. David Rodan - Scott Thompson could very well get the one however

Gold Coast V Melbourne
3. Brent Moloney
2. Jack Trengove
1. Colin Sylvia - Jamar a big chance here as well

Fremantle V North Melbourne
3. Matthew Pavlich
2. Nathan Fyfe
1. Hayden Ballantyne - Could be Mundy and Fyfe and Pav could be swapped

Leaderboard:
1. Brent Moloney 8
2. Dane Swan 7
3. Jobe Watson 7
4. Marc Murphy 6
5. Jude Bolton 6
6. Shaun Burgoyne 6
7. Jimmy Bartel 6
8. Nathan Fyfe 6
9. Dean Cox 5
10. Matthew Boyd 5

I also have Fyfe on 6 votes. Could be a real smoky come brownlow night to win Fremantles votes and provide some real value in team leaders. Polled 5 votes in his debut year which shows he definitely gets noticed and has taken another step this year.

I also think Moloney will be hard to catch to win Melbourne's votes. I have him on 8-9 and creating a real gap between him and the next best demon.

 

[stuziman]

Kepler bradley for brownlow!!

his style and name attracts votes and the chicks