Brownlow Medal 2013

[NSLK]

Anchors: Dangerfield, Selwood, Cameron, Boak, Montagna, Griffen & Priddis
75-80% confident: Mitchell, Fyfe
Fairly confident: Jones, Jack, Swan
High Paying I think will get up: Murphy, Hanley, Martin, Wells, Heppell
Wouldn't Be surprised they get up: Barlow, Steven, Hannebery, Harvey

Anchors: Rockliff, Fyfe, Selwood, Boak, Cotchin, Griffen, Priddis,
75-80%: Pendlebury, Fyfe, Cameron, Montagna, Jack
Fairly confident: Harvey, Murphy
High paying I think will get up: same as above, Sloane (moreso the next category)
Wouldn't be surprised: Roughead, Mitchell, Grimes, Sloane, Swan, Hannebery, Riewoldt, Ward, McLean

On McLean, if he gets >5 votes, I'd expect it to be closer to 10 - I don't see his good games as high-likelihood polling games, but if I'm wrong on that, he's due to poll much more.

 

[Willzzz]

So, I'm completely new to betting on the Brownlow Medal.
I'm looking at sportsbet team markets & they have Sloane @ $7.
How often have bookies got the most votes wrong in the past cause $7 is a mighty price for what most people here have about 50/50 with Dangerfield.
Also, what's the best way to bet on the Brownlow.
Anchor the 4-5 in all your multi-bets & take add in a few roughies?

 

[RobbyRoy]

So, I'm completely new to betting on the Brownlow Medal.
I'm looking at sportsbet team markets & they have Sloane @ $7.
How often have bookies got the most votes wrong in the past cause $7 is a mighty price for what most people here have about 50/50 with Dangerfield.
Also, what's the best way to bet on the Brownlow.
Anchor the 4-5 in all your multi-bets & take add in a few roughies?

I don't think it's 50/50. A few here have Sloane taking it but most of us have Dangerfield comfortably ahead.

On the betting, that's what I'll be doing for the team votes, not sure if it's the best way yet!

 

[Stickers32]

I got 27 multis off before sportsbet decided to pull the plug on brownlow multis! Very busy day at work haha

 

[DT_35]

I got 27 multis off before sportsbet decided to pull the plug on brownlow multis! Very busy day at work haha

Pulled the plug on you or everyone?
Mine seems to be working, 'add more selections to start multibet'

 

[Stickers32]

Pulled the plug on you or everyone?
Mine seems to be working, 'add more selections to start multibet'

Hmm a few mates saying there's nothing on the brownlow teams page.. I'll have another look

 

[Stickers32]

Hmm a few mates saying there's nothing on the brownlow teams page.. I'll have another look

Yeah still nothing... Ahwell I'm set!

 

[DT_35]

Hmm a few mates saying there's nothing on the brownlow teams page.. I'll have another look

I'm on it now, and every teams market is still there?
Don't have any money in my account so can't try it out but it says you can.

 

[Stickers32]

I'm on it now, and every teams market is still there?
Don't have any money in my account so can't try it out but it says you can.

Sportsbet.com.au yeah? Hmm says nothing on the app?? Might look on my lappy

 

[Stickers32]

Sportsbet.com.au yeah? Hmm says nothing on the app?? Might look on my lappy

Your right.. Works on lappy

 

[DT_35]

Sportsbet.com.au yeah? Hmm says nothing on the app?? Might look on my lappy

Yeh Sportsbet.

 

[Stickers32]

Ended up with 32 multis and I'm done!.. Now the waiting game

 

[Pinnell]

Shaun Burgyone 2.60 Brent Moloney 2.75 Danyle Pearce 7.50
Shaun Grigg 8.00 Jonathan Griffen 8.50 Angus Monfries 11.00
Jarrod Harbrow 12.00 Jared Brennan 12.00 Luke Ball 21.00
Heath Scotland 21.00 Farren Ray 21.00 Danny Stanley 34.00
Shannon Byrnes 34.00

Over at Sportsbet..... Recycled players
Now, when you look at this in detail its likely that none of these guys will poll more than 6-7 votes. Luke Ball didn't play many games but could easily knock up 6 votes and win it. Market should be much tighter IMO and makes Ball great value. THoughts?

 

[The GOAT]

How do people see the Gold Coast Suns count?

I have Prestia 8, O'Meara 6 and Bennell 4.

Not sure if i have overpolled with Prestia by reading some of the posts. There were a few games where it was an even performance and i had prestia slipping in for 1 vote. But if it is the case, he is great value at around evens with most places.

I have Ablett winning the Suns count comfortably

 

[Substance]

hhhehehe

 

[padstar23]

TAB offering multis at any stage this year?

 

[BuddysBuddy23]

From memory TAB dont open the multi's until the morning of the count(atleast thats what they did last year im pretty sure). Could be wrong

 

[Armesy]

Round 6: Gave him 3 votes in a 6 goal game where the Giants ran out of legs in the second half (dominated the first) and where there wasn't any other real standout (Hibberd got the two, you could swap them)

Round 11: 2 votes against Geelong for 4.4 and a massive presence, again mainly in the first half. Selwood was massive and will get the three, Pods with 5 goals I gave one vote, pretty even spread beyond that.

Round 18: 3 votes against Collingwood when he kicked 7 and nearly single-handedly beat the Pies

Round 19: 1 vote against Melbourne - Gave Ward and D Smith the others

Cheers, I personally don't think he will poll that well, just due to the history of KPP players not getting rewarded as much as midfielders. I do think he is a player that there was a lot of hype around though so it really wouldn't surprise me if he does.

 

[DT_35]

Nat Fyfe - Scratch 5.50
Steve Johnson +4.0 7.50
Hamish Hartlett +10.0 8.00
Jimmy Bartel +13.5 7.50
Scott Thompson (Adel) +14.0 7.50
Hayden Ballantyne +15.5 7.50
Lance Franklin +16.0 7.50
Heath Shaw +17.0 8.00
Dayne Zorko +18.0 8.00
James Kelly +18.5 $8.00

I'd be putting a line through Shaw, Zorko and Kelly. Franklin +16 is a huge line. I've done some research and compared a few of his games this year, to similar games he had last year.

R11 2012 - Hawks 16.12.108 DEF Port 9.8.62
Franklin' stats: 15 Disposals, 6 Marks & 4 goals - No Votes
R12 2012 - Hawks 19.20.135 DEF Bris 11.4.70
Franklin' stats: 17 Disposals, 4 Marks & 5 Goals - 1 Vote
R14 2012 - Hawks 18.12.120 DEF Carlton 10.10.70
Franklin' stats: 23 Disposals, 7 Marks, 4 Goals, 10 inside 50's - 3 Votes

Now I think it's quite obvious he had a quite year compared to last year, with most of his games this year being similar to his stats from R11 2012 against Port where he didn't receive any votes.

These are the games I think Franklin may poll in this year (noting he would only need 10, + the 16 handicap to take it out IMO)

R3 - Hawks DEF Coll by 55 PTS. Franklin 23 Possessions (10 contested), 5 Marks (2 contested), 4 Tackles, 5 inside 50's , 4 Goals and 2 Score Assists. Hodge should take out the 3 Votes. Birchall, Mitchell, Burgoyne, Swan, Pendles, Franklin fight it out for the 2 and 1.

R4 - Hawks DEF Freo by 42 PTS. Franklin 20 Possession, 8 Marks (3 contested), 3 Tackles, 3 Score Assists and 4 Goals. Very similar stats to Roughead. Birchall will take the 3 comfortably. Burgoyne should take the 2 with Bruest, Rough and Franklin fighting it out for the last vote.

R9 - Hawks DEF GC by 26 Points. Gary obvious choice for 3 with 36 touches and 3 goals. I expect Buddy to poll minimum 1.

R14 - Hawks DEF Bris by 58 PTS. Franklin a chance at 1, MAYBE 2 if lucky.

R18 - Hawks DEF Ess by 56 PTS. Franklin certain with the 3 with 8 goals.

R21 - Hawks DEF Coll by 35 Points. Franklin with 20 touches and 4 goals, chance for 3, 2 OR 1. No real standout players here, my guess would be 3 to Hodge, 2 to Swan and 1 to Franklin.

So after all that I have him polling anywhere between 5-10. With the 16 vote handicap that puts him at 21-26. I have Fyfe polling 23 so I think it will be close.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Nat Fyfe - Scratch 5.50
Steve Johnson +4.0 7.50
Hamish Hartlett +10.0 8.00
Jimmy Bartel +13.5 7.50
Scott Thompson (Adel) +14.0 7.50
Hayden Ballantyne +15.5 7.50
Lance Franklin +16.0 7.50
Heath Shaw +17.0 8.00
Dayne Zorko +18.0 8.00
James Kelly +18.5 $8.00

I'd be putting a line through Shaw, Zorko and Kelly. Franklin +16 is a huge line. I've done some research and compared a few of his games this year, to similar games he had last year.

R11 2012 - Hawks 16.12.108 DEF Port 9.8.62
Franklin' stats: 15 Disposals, 6 Marks & 4 goals - No Votes
R12 2012 - Hawks 19.20.135 DEF Bris 11.4.70
Franklin' stats: 17 Disposals, 4 Marks & 5 Goals - 1 Vote
R14 2012 - Hawks 18.12.120 DEF Carlton 10.10.70
Franklin' stats: 23 Disposals, 7 Marks, 4 Goals, 10 inside 50's - 3 Votes

Now I think it's quite obvious he had a quite year compared to last year, with most of his games this year being similar to his stats from R11 2012 against Port where he didn't receive any votes.

These are the games I think Franklin may poll in this year (noting he would only need 10, + the 16 handicap to take it out IMO)

R3 - Hawks DEF Coll by 55 PTS. Franklin 23 Possessions (10 contested), 5 Marks (2 contested), 4 Tackles, 5 inside 50's , 4 Goals and 2 Score Assists. Hodge should take out the 3 Votes. Birchall, Mitchell, Burgoyne, Swan, Pendles, Franklin fight it out for the 2 and 1.

R4 - Hawks DEF Freo by 42 PTS. Franklin 20 Possession, 8 Marks (3 contested), 3 Tackles, 3 Score Assists and 4 Goals. Very similar stats to Roughead. Birchall will take the 3 comfortably. Burgoyne should take the 2 with Bruest, Rough and Franklin fighting it out for the last vote.

R9 - Hawks DEF GC by 26 Points. Gary obvious choice for 3 with 36 touches and 3 goals. I expect Buddy to poll minimum 1.

R14 - Hawks DEF Bris by 58 PTS. Franklin a chance at 1, MAYBE 2 if lucky.

R18 - Hawks DEF Ess by 56 PTS. Franklin certain with the 3 with 8 goals.

R21 - Hawks DEF Coll by 35 Points. Franklin with 20 touches and 4 goals, chance for 3, 2 OR 1. No real standout players here, my guess would be 3 to Hodge, 2 to Swan and 1 to Franklin.

So after all that I have him polling anywhere between 5-10. With the 16 vote handicap that puts him at 21-26. I have Fyfe polling 23 so I think it will be close.

Where's that?

 

[DT_35]

Where's that?

Sportsbet. 'Ineligible Player Handicap' in 'Brownlow Medal Specials'

 

[DT_35]

I'll be taking Franklin and Thompson FWIW. Don't see Bartel polling many, and Thompson with a 14.0 handicap is a proven vote getter.

RE: Tri-fecta. TAB must be taking the piss, Ablett/Selwood/Pendles in exact order is $6 Same Tri @ Sportsbet/Sportingbet is $13-$15.

Sportingbet is the way to go for Tri-Fecta'.
Few examples:
Sportsbet
Selwood - Ablett - Swan = $21
@ Sporting It's $41.

Sportsbet:
Ablett - Selwood - Watson = $91
@ Sporting it's $121


It says 'Pays on the Top 3 players n exact order out of the 5 nominated players only' WTF does that mean??[

 

[pete galvin]

hi guys,new to this forum but been betting on the Brownlow for a few yrs now...had some really juicy bets come in 2009 and 2010 but since they reduced and cut the team votes the last couple of years have had a lean time.....great to see a couple of agencies already letting us multi team votes again...

 

[pete galvin]

i took some nice h2h's about 3 weeks ago but think i jumped the gun on them.....anyone got any thoughts on T Cloke v N Reiwoldt?? i have Cloke just ahead but seeing a lot of sites where people have Reiwoldt in front by a couple....thoughts anyone?

 

[pete galvin]

I'll be taking Franklin and Thompson FWIW. Don't see Bartel polling many, and Thompson with a 14.0 handicap is a proven vote getter.

RE: Tri-fecta. TAB must be taking the piss, Ablett/Selwood/Pendles in exact order is $6 Same Tri @ Sportsbet/Sportingbet is $13-$15.

Sportingbet is the way to go for Tri-Fecta'.
Few examples:
Sportsbet
Selwood - Ablett - Swan = $21
@ Sporting It's $41.

Sportsbet:
Ablett - Selwood - Watson = $91
@ Sporting it's $121


It says 'Pays on the Top 3 players n exact order out of the 5 nominated players only' WTF does that mean??[

Hi mate,seen this heaps of times before...it means out of the 5 nominated players they must finish in the order you selected them....which means if you pick Ablett/Selwood/Pendlebury and the end result is Ablett/Giansiracusa/Selwood/Reiwoldt/Penlebury in that order you would win.....as long as Gia and Reiwoldt werent in the five selcted players...