Brownlow Medal 2013

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Me neither

Ward has an absolute minimum guaranteed 3. I cant really guarantee Cameron 3 votes. The pies game he might only get the one, 2 max.

I think the hype alone gets him the two in both of those games. Some of the goals he scored against the Pies were pure genius.

Can't see Ward polling outside the 3 in the win. The losses were just too big.

In saying that, Cameron is way unders and I wish I'd left him out of my multis.
 

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i know ive said it a few times, but a heap of caution has to be taken with cameron. 3-4 goals in a loss isnt going to get him votes and really, punters are relying on a mnimum of 2 for the Pies game and minimum 1 for the essendon game - and outside of that, his chances are slim. might only take 5 or so votes to win GWS and i stand by shiel being the one there that could snatch it at the 15s

Could poll vs Melbourne, Essendon both games, Collingwood and Geelong.
 
Any other Vs Swan (Coll)
Cameron (GWS)
Any other vs Murphy (Carl)
Watson (ess)
Ebert vs Hanley
Petrie vs H.Taylor
Cornes vs Cloke
Moloney vs Prestia
Mclean vs Stokes
Heppell vs O'Keefe

Put $8 on pays out $1300
 
Does anyone have Jack polling in round 9?

I remember watching that game

ROK was huge. Pendles battled manfully with him. The votes will come from Goodes, ROK, Hannerberry, Pendles.(Add to that guys like Malceski, Mcveigh, possibly Ball ect)

I would go
3. Goodes
2. ROK
1. Hanneberry

Jack wont poll. He also had 5 FA that game and none for, not a good look.
 

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My thoughts

Adel - Danger but too short to play
Bris - Rockliff, used as anchor
Carl - Im big on Judd//Murphy, dont know how McLean is favourite to be honest
Coll - 50/50 and both less than $2 = no thanks
Ess - Like Goddard fav out, saved on heppell
Freo - Not huge on Fyfe prob rate him a 60/40 chance to get over barlow, stayed out of this one.
Gcs - Prestia fav out
Geel - Sellwood
Gws - Cant believe how cameron is 1.3, ward as good a chance
Haw - Dont like Mitchell to win, think he will comfortably outpoll others though
Melb - No thanks
North - See melb
Port - Boak
Rich - Cotch anchor
Stk - Montagna just, can easily see steven though. Had montagna 12 steven 10
Syd - Jack only just ahead of hannebry, taken hannebry in a few multis cause of the price
Wce - Too up and down for mine
Wbd - Griffen should, libba could - again i stayed out of this one.

Overall i have sellwood winning by 1 ahead of gaj

Good luck to all!
 
My thoughts

Adel - Danger but too short to play
Bris - Rockliff, used as anchor
Carl - Im big on Judd//Murphy, dont know how McLean is favourite to be honest
Coll - 50/50 and both less than $2 = no thanks
Ess - Like Goddard fav out, saved on heppell
Freo - Not huge on Fyfe prob rate him a 60/40 chance to get over barlow, stayed out of this one.
Gcs - Prestia fav out
Geel - Sellwood
Gws - Cant believe how cameron is 1.3, ward as good a chance
Haw - Dont like Mitchell to win, think he will comfortably outpoll others though
Melb - No thanks
North - See melb
Port - Boak
Rich - Cotch anchor
Stk - Montagna just, can easily see steven though. Had montagna 12 steven 10
Syd - Jack only just ahead of hannebry, taken hannebry in a few multis cause of the price
Wce - Too up and down for mine
Wbd - Griffen should, libba could - again i stayed out of this one.

Overall i have sellwood winning by 1 ahead of gaj

Good luck to all!
I think and hope Joel wins too!!
 
Pearce Hanley at 2.20 on Sportsbet head to head with Ebert, awesome value, got him winning by 6
those twits on AFL Best Tips 2013 on Facebook charging people $150 a year for thier tips banned from there page last night coz i told them they were dickheads for telling everyone to get on Ebert coz they had him 9 votes ahead of Hanley...lmao.....FOOLS!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Loving Betstar's H2H multis, gone:
Ibbotson > Duncan 2.00
Bastinac > Vlastuin 1.85
Kennedy WC > Masten 2.00
Ziebell > Judd 2.08
Westhoff > Thompson Ade 1.95

30/1 the lot
 
those twits on AFL Best Tips 2013 on Facebook charging people $150 a year for thier tips banned from there page last night coz i told them they were dickheads for telling everyone to get on Ebert coz they had him 9 votes ahead of Hanley...lmao.....FOOLS!!!!!!!!!!!!
they reckon they have 1400 brownlow subscribers - at $150 a pop that's a fair chunk of coin. i'm not sure fools is the right word - but i'd be staggered if they returned major profits
 
for what its worth, my best result is easily J selwood. as per past years, since the year of the last Judd win, I've been doing round by round counts each week and this year, picked selwood as the value at the time (we'll see tonight if it actually IS value!). have outlayed around 100 units in total, on straight out winner, Top 5, Team Votes and trifecta, and a selwood win recoups around 340 units

best team vote result for me is sloane to win adelaide; shiel to take GWS (at only a small play given the risk in their market); grimes to win Melb (4 votes could nearly win theirs and i just cant take $1.40 on Jones); deledio to win richmond (a lot are forgetting just how long it took cotchin to get moving this year); judd to win carlton and cox to take West coast. Largely, I've left other teams out as they look too short - eg. boak will win port, but can't take $1,10, apart from in multis.

only thing i'd suggest for new posters here - do your own counts, round by round, the weekend they play. honestly, trying to go back in september to remember what happened in april just ain't gonna work. do it while its fresh in your mind and that also gives time to make realistic adjustments while fresh in the mind. it also gives the chance to pick value as its unfolding. selwood is a classic example, my first go at him was at $34, and once he hit $13, i stopped. trying to get on at $4.50 now means you have to put a lot more on to land a decent return.

I'm no Brownlow King, but like him, started doing strongly the year of that Judd win and stick to the same rules since and have done well each year. hoping that we all jag some good winners tonight, boys, so will be sitting back to enjoy the count and see how we all go.
 
How many does everyone have Swan on up to Round 9?

GO!
Rounds 1-9 are key to how he will fare tonight. Most people are underpolling him during those rounds I feel (but most people will say that I am definitely overpolling him). If he polls anything more than 5 votes during the first 9 rounds he is in good shape.

For someone like swan, he doesnt have to be one of the 3 best players on the ground to get a vote. He just always has the ball and thus always in the umpires eye. If he gets around 30 disposals and the pies win, he's always in with a chance to get something.

Rnd.1- I think he could get 1 or 2 votes here. Pendlebury should get the 3.
Rnd.2- None of the big names stood up in this game so its a complete lottery. elliot deserves the 3. Swan's good polling history could see him snag a vote.
Rnd.3- Lost to Hawks so unlikely to get anything.
Rnd.4- Swan or cloke should share the 2 and 3 votes here. Most likely 2 for swan.
Rnd.5- All essendon players here.
Rnd.6- Cloke kicked a bag, Daisy had alot of the ball but I have Swan and Pendles sharing the 2 and 3 here.
Rnd.7- Played v.well but in a losing side. 1 at best but doubt it.
Rnd.8- big win over the cats and had it 29 times. Pendles, harry O and Dwyer were all better but swannys always a chance.
Rnd.9- All sydney here.

so i have him on 6 (polling 2's in round 1, 4 and 6) with good chances of polling something extra in rounds 2 and 8. Very unlikey but possible vote (at best) in round 7.

Reading that back makes me think I have definitely overpolled him, but you have to consider the guy's polling history.
 

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Brownlow Medal 2013

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