Brownlow Medal 2013

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HurlsMeister18 said:
What have you got him and Ablett on after rd 11 mate ?
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I'm considering throw roughly $200 on Watson as my only bet for tonight as I feel more confident on Watson leading at the half way point than Ablett to win it overall.

Plus Watson owes me, I put 500 on him at roughly $45 in 2011 and when he missed due to injury I cried. An in 2012 I didn't place a bet at all on the brownlow.... My luck...

So I'm chasing my lose with the same horse ;)
 
Quite Ironic said:
Yeah your point is very valid. I was just asking who people thought were value. Who do you like in the head tk heads
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Is that with betstar? i havnt had time to look or do any major analysis this year.

FWIW mate im not sure if your aware and take this with a huge grain of salt but fanfooty.com Monty and Molly are huge hawk fans wouldnt miss games for anything. They assign a star to the BOG likely 3 vote getter and have gone like this.

Mitchell - Rounds 2,8,12 and 22 (4 games)
Hodge - Round 3,6,7 and 21 (4 games)
Roughy - Rounds 13,16,20 and 23 (4 games)

Round 7 could tell a tale but still i think Hodgey will win it.

What are your votes for that game?

Does Hodgeys 32 disposal, 5 R50, 10 I50 1 goal game get the 3 or does

Rougheads 27 disposal, 8 mark, 4 CC, 4 goal 2 behinds get the 3?

I remember watching the game after it had been played because i was surprised at the clearances Roughead was starting to get and obviously saw a change of role for my dream team picks. He was the standout for me in that game, however i was keeping a bloody close eye on him. My voting would be biased by focusing on certain players in games which is why its probably not best i bet too much this year on it as one of many reasons.
 
HurlsMeister18 said:
I'm leaning towards McVeigh as I have him down for 4 3 vote games in rd 2,3,15,16 and possibly a total of 16-17 votes which should get him over the line in that group.
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I went with McVeigh too. He doesn't usually poll that well but I think he should top it. As you said, he has a lot of 3 vote games, which is a massive plus.

Not sure how Lib polls... I don't know that he's "mainstream" enough for the umps to give him as many as he may deserve, Rocky might have too much group to make up, and I think Sloane could be a good way off (or could top, hard call).
 
HirdyLannister said:
I'm considering throw roughly $200 on Watson as my only bet for tonight as I feel more confident on Watson leading at the half way point than Ablett to win it overall.

Plus Watson owes me, I put 500 on him at roughly $45 in 2011 and when he missed due to injury I cried. An in 2012 I didn't place a bet at all on the brownlow.... My luck...

So I'm chasing my lose with the same horse ;)
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I think he will be 2 votes behind at rd 10 (ablett 17, watson 15)
 
HirdyLannister said:
I'm considering throw roughly $200 on Watson as my only bet for tonight as I feel more confident on Watson leading at the half way point than Ablett to win it overall.

Plus Watson owes me, I put 500 on him at roughly $45 in 2011 and when he missed due to injury I cried. An in 2012 I didn't place a bet at all on the brownlow.... My luck...

So I'm chasing my lose with the same horse ;)
Click to expand...


I think by the half way mark Jobe will be on around the 14 vote range and have Ablett possibly in the 18 to 20 range as Ablett had a massive purple patch from rd 5 to rd 11.

I'm thinking of going pretty big on Goddard most votes for Essendon excluding Watson and how do you think Goddard will poll ? I think he will get enough 1's and 2's to win pretty easy but wouldn't mind another dons fan perspective :)
 
HurlsMeister18 said:
I think by the half way mark Jobe will be on around the 14 vote range and have Ablett possibly in the 18 to 20 range as Ablett had a massive purple patch from rd 5 to rd 11.

I'm thinking of going pretty big on Goddard most votes for Essendon excluding Watson and how do you think Goddard will poll ? I think he will get enough 1's and 2's to win pretty easy but wouldn't mind another dons fan perspective :)
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Goddard is a strange one... the umpires hate him so I would be reluctant to bet much on him. What about zaharakis? I have him down for 3 B.O.G's which might be enough?
 

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HurlsMeister18 said:
I think by the half way mark Jobe will be on around the 14 vote range and have Ablett possibly in the 18 to 20 range as Ablett had a massive purple patch from rd 5 to rd 11.

I'm thinking of going pretty big on Goddard most votes for Essendon excluding Watson and how do you think Goddard will poll ? I think he will get enough 1's and 2's to win pretty easy but wouldn't mind another dons fan perspective :)
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I'm not a serious punter just the odd thing like brownlow or I take 500 with me to any spring carnival I attend but I see that money more as entertainment value.

Well to your question IMO Watson, Goddard and Hibberd were the most consistent during the whole year. I don't believe Goddard or Hibberd missed a game either if they did it would only have been one.
 
With the brownlow short approaching, can we share some of the multis we have already put on?

These are my favourite. Put them on about 2 weeks ago and have a potential 70% return benefit compared to now. Couldnt decide against Swan and Pendles so did them both o_O

Montagna
Mitchell
Selwood
Boak
Watson
Dangerfield
Priddis
Cameron
Mclean
Cotchin
Harvey
Fyfe
Jack
Swan/Pendles

Swan bet
$20 outlay for $2435 return (to put it on now via sportsbet would return $776)
Pendles bet
$20 outlay for $2191 return (to put it on now via sportsbet would return $578)

Guess what im saying here is how important it is to put the multis on early! Really it is 14 favourites and making 70% better off if it wins but only a couple of weeks.

What are some other good bets people have placed where you got on way before odds were smashed in?
 
Frazenoast said:
With the brownlow short approaching, can we share some of the multis we have already put on?

These are my favourite. Put them on about 2 weeks ago and have a potential 70% return benefit compared to now. Couldnt decide against Swan and Pendles so did them both o_O

Montagna
Mitchell
Selwood
Boak
Watson
Dangerfield
Priddis
Cameron
Mclean
Cotchin
Harvey
Fyfe
Jack
Swan/Pendles

Swan bet
$20 outlay for $2435 return (to put it on now via sportsbet would return $776)
Pendles bet
$20 outlay for $2191 return (to put it on now via sportsbet would return $578)

Guess what im saying here is how important it is to put the multis on early! Really it is 14 favourites and making 70% better off if it wins but only a couple of weeks.

What are some other good bets people have placed where you got on way before odds were smashed in?
Click to expand...


Love those bets, only one different is i have hanneberry beating jack.
 
balmainforever said:
Not convinced about Cameron beating Ward.
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Me neither

Ward has an absolute minimum guaranteed 3. I cant really guarantee Cameron 3 votes. The pies game he might only get the one, 2 max.

Im not sure about the essendon game either hes been very good early on in games, how will that stand up.

Anyway i just did my tiger votes, pretty purely based on stats but has done the goods for me in the past.
18 - Cotchin
16 - Deledio
14 - Martin
8 - Ellis

Some really tough games to give votes in there.

Round 13, Round 14 tough
 
Keystone agony said:
Me neither

Ward has an absolute minimum guaranteed 3. I cant really guarantee Cameron 3 votes. The pies game he might only get the one, 2 max.

Im not sure about the essendon game either hes been very good early on in games, how will that stand up.

Anyway i just did my tiger votes, pretty purely based on stats but has done the goods for me in the past.
18 - Cotchin
16 - Deledio
14 - Martin
8 - Ellis

Some really tough games to give votes in there.

Round 13, Round 14 tough
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i know ive said it a few times, but a heap of caution has to be taken with cameron. 3-4 goals in a loss isnt going to get him votes and really, punters are relying on a mnimum of 2 for the Pies game and minimum 1 for the essendon game - and outside of that, his chances are slim. might only take 5 or so votes to win GWS and i stand by shiel being the one there that could snatch it at the 15s
 

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