Brownlow Medal 2013

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Had Kennedy on 21 last year. More than he got, but never enough to win.

Been home sick the last three days so I've not only done round 23, but also gone over the whole season again. Scrutinise away...

27- Ablett
24- Selwood
23- Jack
23- Swan
23- Fyfe*
22- Mitchell
21- Pendlebury
21- Hannebery
21- Dangerfield
20- Johnson*
20- Griffen
19- Roughead
19- Watson
18- Boak
18- Cotchin
18- Hodge

Just going on my count, I think the money for Jack top 3 would be the most value. Underpolled last year, but his name has been put forward far more this season. Boak's a funny one too. Ended up reducing his votes a little on recount, but there are another 4-5 games where I had him very close. Will be interesting to see what he ends up on. Pendlebury vs Swan should be good too, had them 3 and 2 a couple of times, with it being very difficult to decide who gets which.
 

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Harry_The_Horse said:
Taking Danger over Jobe H2H $1.72. Not much else i really like at this stage although Hanneberry would be ahead of Mitchell at present.
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which sites have head to head betting at present.. I really Like Jobe over danger... people forget how well he flew out yet again before injury.. and towards end of season he got a few votes also...... puzzled also as why selwood wasn;t award votes for round 2 vs kangas.. most phantom brownlows have him on 0 for this game.. think the umps will lean his way here for at least the 1 maybe even the 3.... also think he wills crape 1 vs the swans also late season.... like the 1.62 for top 3 selwood... but want to wait for luxbets top3 odds as he's 4.75 for the win over there compared to TABS 3.50... should that make his place odds around
$2???

just hoping he doesnt dominate freo as his price will fall as it always happens when players do well in finals:p
 
demon_fanatic said:
which sites have head to head betting at present.. I really Like Jobe over danger... people forget how well he flew out yet again before injury.. and towards end of season he got a few votes also...... puzzled also as why selwood wasn;t award votes for round 2 vs kangas.. most phantom brownlows have him on 0 for this game.. think the umps will lean his way here for at least the 1 maybe even the 3.... also think he wills crape 1 vs the swans also late season.... like the 1.62 for top 3 selwood... but want to wait for luxbets top3 odds as he's 4.75 for the win over there compared to TABS 3.50... should that make his place odds around
$2???

just hoping he doesnt dominate freo as his price will fall as it always happens when players do well in finals:p
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Betstar is your friend. Check it often, it's always changing.
 
I'm a little concerned about Selwood being a whiny little bitch and how this will effect umpires' opinions of him. Seems every Cats game I watched he was in the ump's ear at each break having a cry about something. Could work for or against him I suppose.
 
d3ft said:
I'm a little concerned about Selwood being a whiny little bitch and how this will effect umpires' opinions of him. Seems every Cats game I watched he was in the ump's ear at each break having a cry about something. Could work for or against him I suppose.
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I don't think he really whines more just the captains role to discuss after each quarter if there is an issue.... whiney i'd say scott thompson cost himself votes he seems to complain a lot during games last year.... something like that
 
wouldn't pay too much attention to PB. i've got ebert on 10 and hanley on 8 or 9.
 
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Yeh Ebert has been great this year ^

Pendlebury has come in a bit, personally I think he will finish above Swan.

Ablett 27
Selwood 25
Pendles 24
Swan 23
 

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I have Hanley (8) and Ebert (6)... But Hanley is too much of an unknown - votes running off half back aren't nearly as predictable as votes for some of the games Ebert has played.
 
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For what its worth my count is:

Ablett 26
Selwood 23
Pendlebury 22
Fyfe 21
Swan 21
Jack 20
Roughead 19
Boak 18
Mitchell 17
Hannebery 17
Cotchin 17

Will probably get picked apart, especially with Roughead so high. We all know its a midfielders medal, but i reckon Roughead had a seriously good season and is value in any of the Hawks team leader markets, but i wouldnt be going over the top.

Pendlebury came home strong over Swan and will probably pip him in the last couple of rounds. Jack has had a good season too and potentially could be higher than 20, especially after a breakout year last year.

Another thing i worry about with Ablett is that while he deserves all the votes people have been giving him, quite often players in the spotlight like that do not poll as well as expected. Ablett 2008, Swan 2010, Judd 2011 are all good examples. These players were odds on (sportsbet even paid out on a couple of them) but they did not poll as well as expected. Which has me thinking Selwood could be some good value and even Swan/Pendlebury.

Is a pity Fyfe was suspended and rested the final game, who knows how he could have went if that didnt happen. One to watch next year early on thats for sure.
 
Looking at some of the markets at Sportsbet, the Brownlow Groups markets look ok. I reckon these below are value and am interested in peopels thoughts.

Small Forwards: Ballantyne 2.75
Ruckmen: Cox 2.10
Veterans: Harvey 2.10
Inked: Cloke 7.00 or Jones 5.50

Also im interested in seeing how people think Pearce Hanley of Brisbane will go. Have seen his name pop up in different places and i have him just 3 votes behind Rockliff. Granted Rockliff is a handy player, but he has not been amazing the past few seasons on brownlow night with a high of 9 last year. Could Hanle possible outpoll him from defence?
 
max grande said:
Looking at some of the markets at Sportsbet, the Brownlow Groups markets look ok. I reckon these below are value and am interested in peopels thoughts.

Small Forwards: Ballantyne 2.75
Ruckmen: Cox 2.10
Veterans: Harvey 2.10
Inked: Cloke 7.00 or Jones 5.50

Also im interested in seeing how people think Pearce Hanley of Brisbane will go. Have seen his name pop up in different places and i have him just 3 votes behind Rockliff. Granted Rockliff is a handy player, but he has not been amazing the past few seasons on brownlow night with a high of 9 last year. Could Hanle possible outpoll him from defence?
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i have hanley on 9
 
max grande said:
Thanks.

I have him on 8 and Rockliff 11. He polled in 3 games last year and has improved significantly this year, so i see some value in him if he overpolls and rockliff underpolls
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I have Rockliff polling in 7 of the last 8, with up to four best on grounds. Deadset lock in my multis.
 
banana_bus said:
Thoughts on Montagna top Saint?

Looks like he'll get 6 in his last 2 which is probably as much as any other Saint...
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Jack Steven is the obvious danger but he doesnt have the greatest record. Has polled in only 3 of his 50 career games, but he has definitely improved this year. I have him on 9 and Montagna on 12. Riewoldt was in hot form earlier in the season, but i think Montagnas last couple of games has seen him off.
 
max grande said:
For what its worth my count is:

Ablett 26
Selwood 23
Pendlebury 22
Fyfe 21
Swan 21
Jack 20
Roughead 19
Boak 18
Mitchell 17
Hannebery 17
Cotchin 17

Will probably get picked apart, especially with Roughead so high. We all know its a midfielders medal, but i reckon Roughead had a seriously good season and is value in any of the Hawks team leader markets, but i wouldnt be going over the top.
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Yours is pretty close to mine (maybe not a good thing), so I like it. I have Roughy on 19 as well, and can't see how he could possibly get less than double figures, and could even get into the 20s. Mitchell is a tough one too. Like Roughead he's had a very consistent year and while I can see him getting as low as you have him, I can also see him getting well into the 20s. The sheer weight of games won this year makes Hawthorn an interesting Brownlow team.
 
max grande said:
Jack Steven is the obvious danger but he doesnt have the greatest record. Has polled in only 3 of his 50 career games, but he has definitely improved this year. I have him on 9 and Montagna on 12. Riewoldt was in hot form earlier in the season, but i think Montagnas last couple of games has seen him off.
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Steven has a couple of definite high-polling games but otherwise his best has come when those around him have also been good, including Montagna. Montagna comfortably for mine.

Hanley looks like confusing everyone right til the end. I have him on 11, same as Rockliff, but I'm not game enough to back him in the Brisbane market. Against Ebert maybe...
 
RobbyRoy said:
Yours is pretty close to mine (maybe not a good thing), so I like it. I have Roughy on 19 as well, and can't see how he could possibly get less than double figures, and could even get into the 20s. Mitchell is a tough one too. Like Roughead he's had a very consistent year and while I can see him getting as low as you have him, I can also see him getting well into the 20s. The sheer weight of games won this year makes Hawthorn an interesting Brownlow team.
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I have roughead on 18 which is pretty similar...

max grande said:
Jack Steven is the obvious danger but he doesnt have the greatest record. Has polled in only 3 of his 50 career games, but he has definitely improved this year. I have him on 9 and Montagna on 12. Riewoldt was in hot form earlier in the season, but i think Montagnas last couple of games has seen him off.
Click to expand...
I have steven ahead of montagna by 3.
I have steven polling 3 in rounds 3,7,17 ,21,23
I have Montagna polling 2,3,8,13,22,23 17
Interested to see what people have abblett on after round 13?
 

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