Geelong easily.
Richmond... Not so sure
Cats games
Sr Kilda (H) - Likely Win
Adelaide (A) - Likely loss
Hawthorn (A) - Likely win
Dogs (Adelaide) - 50/50
North (H) - Guaranteed win
Brisbane (A) - guaranteed loss
Carlton (H) 50-50
Melbourne (A) - 50/50
Port (H) - likely win
Suns (A) - likely loss
Giants (H) - 50/50
Richmond (H) - Guaranteed win
Sydney (A) - likely loss
Carlton (A) - likely loss
Bombers (MCG) - 50/50
Hawthorn (H) - guaranteed win
Collingwood (A) - likely loss
Bulldogs (H) - likely win
North (A) - likely win
Adelaide (H) - likely win
Freo (A) - likely loss
St Kilda (A) - 50/50
West Coast (H) - Guaranteed win
4 guaranteed wins
6 likely wins so give them 5/6
6 50/50 games. so give them 3/6
6 likely losses so give them 1/6
No chance v Brisbane at Gabba
13 wins for me
That's a pretty fair assessment, NN
12 is a good baseline, anything above that is nice.
As for Richmond......
Suns (A) likely loss
Carlton (A) loss
Port (H) likely loss
Swans (H) 50/50
Saints (H) 50/50
Eagles (A) likely win
Demons (H) likely loss
Fremantle (H). 50/50
Dogs (H) likely loss
Lions (A). loss
Dons (H) 50/50
Cats (A) loss
Crows (A) loss
Hawks (H) 50/50
Carlton (H) likely loss
Fremantle (A) likely loss
Giants (H) likely loss
Port (A) loss
Pies (A) loss
North (A) win
Saints (H) 50/50
Hawks (A) 50/50
Suns (H) 50/50
Most likely 8 wins there maximum